2008 Predictions

Thank you for that, it made my night...

Hilarious.

She also says "I love making people happy!" I will definitely use her next time I want to grossly overpay for an apartment. I'm particularly excited to see what she'll do to make me happy.

Are your numbers right? They sound crazy.

this seems to be the orig post by Toes:

http://www.urbandigs.com/2010/09/happy_labor_day_2010.html

Quite different from BH's post.

so where did the last statement supposedly by Toes from the OP come from?

As some of you figured out the posting was a spoof on her excessive optimism--I.e., bidding wars and contracts well over ask.

isn't she famous for saying "the sky is not falling" when lehman was collapsing. sometimes age wins over beauty.

Don't put it all on her, I think it's a company wide brainwash.
Ive heard more stupid things out of Corcoran agent mouths than any other broker in the past year.

its always hard to put yourself back into time and place. Granted, the writing on the wall was clear and that kind of stuff is totally my bigger interest, many like Toes simply reported on what they saw in the field, in their own business and didnt really focus on macro issues and the credit crisis. Tons of people in late 2007 through late 2008 downplayed the credit crisis and claimed how Manhattan was immune. Go on some of the older threads here, the old school SE with me, MMafia, Stevejhx, Spunky (remember him?), etc.. and you will see some heated debates.

People should look past that. I know since that time, Toes has tried to report on what she sees in the market, and people should take it for what it is. One brokers in the field observations based on her business, her clients, and colleagues she hears opinions from too. We all do. Granted her timing on that piece couldnt have been worse a day before Lehman failed, clearly not many knew the depth of the crisis before that event occurred - when lehman failed and markets tanked and fear skyrocketed, then people started to 'get it'. But the issues were clear since failure of the two bear hedge funds in mid 2007, when securitization market shut down and credit started to blow out. For so long, many didnt get what was happening. In hindsight, I find everyone not only saw it coming, but claimed to have predicted it too..Ha!

5.4 million for a 400 foot studio...I must have missed something....17 foot ceilings are nice to have a trapeze

a retail mgr is solid? maybe in Bentonville, Ark.

I am no Digs, but when I was talking about the problems in the market in 2006-2007 my ex-partner, every broker I knew and a few clients laughed at me. The majority of the brokerage community was clueless, I had a good friend at my last firm that bought months before Lehman went under. When I questioned the purchase and advised waiting 6 months I was told "But in 6 months I may not be able to afford it." This by a big time top producer, said property was just dumped at a $250,000 dollar loss. Toes was not alone.

I was here in 1987(moved here in 82) and started in the RE business in 1990 when there virtually was no sales market below 34th street. Those times kind of traumatized me- I have seen with my own two eyes just how bad it can get. So when people told me Manhattan was different, even an old punk rocker like me who stumbled into this business via a law program at City College new they were full of shi*. No ivy league education required.

"knew"

Justread the urbandigs labor day blog: She does sound like a cocky biatch!

Remember, she was the idiot who just as the market was crashing, told folks to ignore the bad news, we were heading up. It was a huge piece on urbandigs, and and an awfully funny one.

Basically, she's been a laughingstock for years.

"its always hard to put yourself back into time and place. Granted, the writing on the wall was clear and that kind of stuff is totally my bigger interest, many like Toes simply reported on what they saw in the field, in their own business and didnt really focus on macro issues and the credit crisis. Tons of people in late 2007 through late 2008 downplayed the credit crisis and claimed how Manhattan was immune. Go on some of the older threads here, the old school SE with me, MMafia, Stevejhx, Spunky (remember him?), etc.. and you will see some heated debates."

Totally. Can't tell you how many times those guys (and me) got slammed before the decline reports started coming in... and even then bears got slammed... all the while, being completely right.

> "The sky is not falling, people"
> - Christine Toes, Sep 11 2008

lol

"Granted her timing on that piece couldnt have been worse a day before Lehman failed, clearly not many knew the depth of the crisis before that event occurred - "

Noah, you crack me up. Pretending to remove the dagger but twisting it instead.

Look, Christine's a broker. A cute little broker. Wanna pat her on the head.

I love her. That Sep. 11, 2008 market call stands as one of the iconic real estate broker moments of the entire crisis.

no twist..no no..no twist

Sorry Noah, my misread.

Interesting how the bears here who have been dead wrong on their predictions of 50% price drops in NYC, and have been wrong for years, are revising history and taking cheap shots. Ha!

Come on! Give us a break LIC! No one said there would be a 50% drop over a two years period! This bubble has taken 6 or 7 years to inflate, so it's probably gonna take has many years to deflate back to 1998/2000 level...
You sound like a republican : Deforming the truth to prove someone's wrong... You're pathetic!

LICC, you are brainless. I was apologizing for seemingly putting Noah in an awkward personal position re Christine.

That in no way detracts from the profound stupidity of her prognostication, much like the profound stupidity of your decision to buy property in LIC at the very tippy-top of the market.

> Look, Christine's a broker. A cute little broker. Wanna pat her on the head.

I love the fact that morons like that thing visiting 10 preward apartments and talking to 2 other idiots is somehow an education in economics.

> I love her. That Sep. 11, 2008 market call stands as one of the iconic real estate broker moments of
> the entire crisis.

Agreed. Sad that she's not alone.

Though I've always recognized Noah as the shining exception, possibly the exception that proves the rule.

"Look, Christine's a broker. A cute little broker. Wanna pat her on the head."

Careful, she graduated from Air Force ROTC. You could lose an arm.

"Can't tell you how many times those guys (and me) got slammed before the decline reports started coming in"

Says the guy who showed up after the party and is still telling everyone how great it was. Can't make this stuff up. However, the needless evisceration of a broker, by name, is, to be frank, quite classless, especially coming from anonymous entities on an internet message board. Good stuff.

What I found most laughable was this entire paragraph for Deal #2.

"Deal #2 - one of my listings. On market for 5.5 months (the longest I have ever had a listing!). The light, views and private 700 sq ft terrace were stunning. The sellers and I mis-judged how much of a discount buyers would want for the gut renovation the apartment needed. (For the $250K-$300K of renos needed, buyers wanted about a $500K-$600K discount on what the apartment would sell for if it were renovated). The sellers had also been offered $2M for the apartment in 2007 so when I suggested $1.6M, they asked to start at $1.75M. It took 3 price reductions to get to the right range. Once we dropped to $1.45M, buyers started circling, we ended up with a "highest and best" offer situation the week after Labor Day, with three all-cash buyers. The contract was just signed not-too-far from the asking price"

None of the above rubbish has anything to do with why half smart buyers value this apartment at $1.45.
Lowering the price on an overpriced unit to the market price got you 3 interested bids, near ask. One positive is, last year you would have called this a bidding war, at least there is some reservation in shill speak these days.

Can I offer a simpler method for the $1.45?
PHB, a 3 bed 2 1/2 bath far superior outdoor space apartment and also a gut reno sold in July for $2,300,000. It has a maintenance $5681.
Funny thing with coops is maintenance is designed to apply costs based on the portion of what you have.
And not 100% of the time but often enough, comp work was indirectly at coop inception date for you.

So PHC with it's maintenance at $3583 is 63% of the apartment that PHB is.
PHB sale price 2,300,000 times 63% is $1,449,000.

DA..DA...

Oh, sorry, for those who haven't figured out which building

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/530-east-72-street-new_york

edit missing words
comp work was indirectly at coop inception date for you.
to
comp work was indirectly ALREADY DONE at coop inception date for you.

I was surprised she mentioned the 2007 offer in that paragraph. It basically demonstrates a 30% drop from peak for that unit.

> Careful, she graduated from Air Force ROTC. You could lose an arm.

Sounds hot.

Wait, its Air Force... the country club of the armed forces.

Give me a Navy chick....

> Careful, she graduated from Air Force ROTC. You could lose an arm.
Sounds hot.

Wait, its Air Force... the country club of the armed forces.
Give me a Navy chick....

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
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somewhereelse, always something funny to say
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
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So Miss Toes...what happened to your deal #2?

"buyers started circling, we ended up with a "highest and best" offer situation the week after Labor Day, with three all-cash buyers. "

You had 3 cash little piggys....You had one go to market, one that had roastbeef, and you picked the one that went weee weee all the way home?

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/506068-coop-530-east-72nd-street-lenox-hill-new-york
DId it close?
or
Did you slightly exagerate the interest?