NYC foreclosures lowest in 2 yrs

The Zombie real estate bears will not be happy to read this. I know you Zombies love a good bloodbath, but it's not ahppening. Time for you Zombies to wake up! Manhattan is not crashing!!!

Not only did it not crash it is thriving RS. Listing prices for condo studios are nearing peak 2007 levels. Only a few % points off. Anything a few % lower is getting snapped up.

Yep, that's 101 new deals signed in the last two days. Looks like buyers are signing their contracts before the holiday season begins. So far, December is seeing a continuation of solid deal volume that started in October. However, as we near year end we should see some strong days on the 30 day ticker leave the tail end and future weak days due to holidays come in the front end that makes DEC close out at a weaker pace than what it shows now. November closed out with 801 contracts signed, up from 749 in October but down from 910 in November of 2009. Time will tell as the market is the ultimate master here and the market does what the market wants.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/23979-city-schedules-yet-another-auction-in-queens

Maybe u guys should talk to this guy who's bet his entire livelihood on foreclosures in ny? I grant you he may be early and may need to eat riversider at some point, but the feast they r a coming, as surely as your Soc Sec chks are chks u fat fks.

NY REAL ESTATE RESIDENTIAL

DECEMBER 13, 2010

Banks Struggle To Seize Homes

Foreclosures Tough to Do in New York

By ANTHONY KLAN

It takes longer to foreclose on homes in New York than any other state—and it's getting longer every month.

Two years ago, the state began requiring that banks and borrowers attend settlement conferences before a foreclosure takes place.

While the conferences are popular with borrowers and have succeeded in helping some families keep their homes, banks have been reluctant to participate. That, and recent revelations that some lenders have improperly submitted foreclosure documents, has prompted judges to take a harsher stance with lenders.

The foreclosure process typically begins after a borrower misses three consecutive monthly payments and ends once the lender repossesses the home or the borrower brings the loan current. Nationwide, there were 2.1 million mortgages in some stage of foreclosure as of October, according to research firm LPS Applied Analytics.

The average loan in foreclosure had been in default for 492 days as of October, up from 289 days at the end of 2005, according to LPS.

In New York and New Jersey—another state with consumer friendly laws—the waits are longer. The average loan in foreclosure had been in default for 604 days in New York and 544 days in New Jersey as of October.

"We try and help as many people as we can," says New York Supreme Court Judge Michael Ajello. "We set up a conference and I try and persuade and cajole the banks to reduce the payments," he says. But the banks, he adds, "are not very cooperative."

The Mortgage Bankers Association, which represents some of the nation's biggest banks, said that banks aren't trying to be uncooperative but in many cases loan modifications won't help borrowers because they are unable to meet payments regardless.

Michael Fratantoni, MBA vice president for research and economics, said that under federal guidelines banks are legally required to grant modifications in cases where doing so is expected to deliver the owner of the loan a better long-run return than foreclosure. That's often not the case.

At Staten Island's Richmond County Supreme Court, which has one of the biggest foreclosure caseloads in the city, tensions between borrowers, lenders and judges are rising every week.

The court now hosts settlement conferences four days a week—double that of last year—with about 40 borrowers scheduled to appear each day.

In one case, Judge Ajello ordered lender Wells Fargo & Co. to cease charging interest and penalty fees on a delinquent loan held by Edmund Lewandowski. The order was meant to punish Wells Fargo for failing to adequately explain why it rejected Mr. Lewandowski's loan-modification request.

Mr. Lewandowski , a plumber, owes $430,621 borrowed against his Staten Island family home and his attorneys are attempting to have his interest rate reduced, to make the loan payments more manageable.

An attorney representing Wells Fargo argued Mr. Lewandowski had failed to submit certain documents.

The argument by Wells Fargo was rejected by Judge Ajello, and the lender agreed it would re-review Mr. Lewandowski's loan-modification application. The case was postponed for five weeks, delaying the case once again.

NY REAL ESTATE RESIDENTIAL

DECEMBER 15, 2010

Freeze Slows Auction Pace

By SHELLY BANJO

Foreclosure activity in New York City fell sharply in November, partially due to a temporary freeze by banks, according to data out this week.

Newly scheduled foreclosure auctions citywide dropped by 39% in November from October and by 24% from a year earlier, according to statistics released by real-estate data website Propertyshark.com.

Many banks and mortgage servicers, halted foreclosures during November because of concerns by state attorneys general over faulty paperwork and procedures, says Property Shark director Brian Scully.

Most banks have since resumed foreclosure proceedings.

The borough hardest hit by foreclosures continued to be Queens, which saw a 41% drop from November 2009 to 70 new scheduled auctions.

Foreclosure activity is concentrated in the Jamaica, Jackson Heights, Hollis and St. Albans neighborhoods.

There were only eight new foreclosure actions in Manhattan, where there is a prevalence of co-op apartments with more stringent borrowing standards.

So there's proof out there that Manhattan delinquencies have seriously spiked? I've not heard this...
The article talks about Queens citing Jamaica, Jackson Hts, etc which is hardly representative of the Manhattan condo market

"Not only did it not crash it is thriving RS. Listing prices for condo studios are nearing peak 2007 levels. Only a few % points off. Anything a few % lower is getting snapped up"

This is simply delusional; "Thriving" really? It would be too easy to post listings here that would beg to differ with your analysis. I'm busy, but it's helping buyers identify reasonable deals....and no one has paid anywhere near 2007 price points.

delusional

KeithB. No really. I'd say 5% off the highest list prices I ever saw since 2000. And you know I do my homework.

I'm waiting for active inventory to be @ 6k by this time next year. -remember the credit crisis-

steveF, keep shoveling. one of these days you'll hit gold.

you're forgetting the huge amount of shadow inventory that will come to the market when there's not enough supply. to go through that will take yrs.

steveF, take a closer look at that chart - while I wouldn't necessarily expect seasonality for something like foreclosures, it sure seems like every November there's a sharp dip in foreclosures. Maybe the banks put them off to the new year. I don't think this is much to go on.

Wbottom, I agree with you, but just typing "delusional" a) needlessly bumps the thread, and b) adds nothing to the discussion.

bjw2103, if Wbottom can give his/her opinion in one word, what's wrong with that?

Seasonality doesn't account for y-o-y drops, temporary freeze by banks seems more likely the cause for the drop.

Sunday, to be honest, it's a little bit of a response for what he directed at me here (criticizing "mechanical, negative reaction"): http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/18719-hfscomm1-jimhones09-rufus?last_page=true

Rather than relying on a dozen or so batman pajamas dweebs, lets look where the rubber meets the road.

What is the relationship between supply and market sentiment? Does an improving outlook increase supply, or is it the other way around?

What is the relationship between # of contracts and market sentiment? Is the number of contracts proportional to positive outlook, or is it inversely proportional to outlook?

Yeah, yeah. Manh RE is just an awful purchase. Right. Just came from a re-fi closing. I have a 30yr fixed at 4.5% which brings my monthly expenses for the apt to less than the comparable lower Fifth Ave apt I had been renting. Plus its gut renovated and a perfect longterm home. Had I invested the money I used for the down payment in the stock markets, I'd have still been behind now. Instead, I have a place to live at fixed cost for lower than it was to rent and I'm good for 30 years if I like.

NYC RE still makes perfect sense for many. Long-term time horizon. Fits monthly budget. Yeah--if you are gonna spawn and need to move in 3 years or are cutting your living expenses close to the bone, RE is NOT for you--it isn't a good "investment." But for many, it still is a very rational, appropriate choice.

The sky is falling? Not for everyone. Waiting on the sidelines for the "right time" to buy? Well life isn't waiting for you--it is passing by as you wait. Market timing your life is a bad bad idea.

To stick to stevef's original point about the "market thriving" and we are back to "2007" prices, that's what I was addressing. Otherwise I agree with kylewest and I have been helping some very smart people make some very smart purchases from both a financial and maybe even more importantly an emotional perspective.

I had two closings in the last week and all parties were extremely happy, both deals under $650psf.and 30 year fixed at 4.30%. And that's not factoring in the rebates...

Keith
http://theburkhardtgroup.com/agents_details.php?agent_ID=7619

Keith seems rational about the market. I'm sorry I can't say that about a few others I've observed here.

> Time for you Zombies to wake up! Manhattan is not crashing!!!

Correct, it crashED already. As in past tense. Steve just still hasn't noticed.

> Not only did it not crash it is thriving RS. Listing prices for condo studios are nearing peak 2007
> levels. Only a few % points off. Anything a few % lower is getting snapped up.

Wow, Steve, resorting to ouright lying now. Are you getting even more desperate?

Sorry, toots... medians for every size category are still down over 20% apiece.

> So far, December is seeing a continuation of solid deal volume

Funny, noah said it clearly wasn't just yesterday.

Btw, you slagged noah for months. Now you're hanging on his every word. Which is it, Steve?

"And you know I do my homework." - Steve

OK, I think that qualifies for a nomination for post of the year!

btw, if you peak at Noah's pending sales chart (clearly Steve hasn't)...

http://urbandigs.com/chart.php?s1=Pending+Sales&s2=&mindt=01%2F01%2F2008&maxdt=12%2F16%2F2010&Update=Update&t=Market+Trends&interval_mindt=

the spring peak this year, which we've fallen off considerably from... was 20% less than the peak same time least year.... and that was a much flatter top (longer time near peak levels) meaning.... looks like this year is *way* behind last year...

Why should they be rational when some are here simply to pump up the market so they can sell their investment apartments?

Remember Petrfitz? That guy went on and on about the benefits of owning vs. renting and constantly insulted others - meanwhile he was really selling all of the NYC real estate holdings.... and hasn't posted once since then...

Believe me, when and if SteveF can get out of his NYC RE investments we'll never hear from him again...

"the spring peak this year, which we've fallen off considerably from... was 20% less than the peak same time least year.... and that was a much flatter top (longer time near peak levels) meaning.... looks like this year is *way* behind last year..."

swe, I don't think this is accurate if you actually look at the chart. We are definitely below the spring peak (2763 vs 1958), but that peak was well ABOVE the spring 09 peak (which admittedly was what looks to be a bottom). As for winter 09 (ie: YoY), we were at 2252, so a bit of a drop, but certainly not monumental. Going back to winter 08, it looks like we're typically around that 2250 number before pending sales start an upward trend leading up into and through the spring. It'll be interesting to see if that pattern follows again.

"Why should they be rational when some are here simply to pump up the market so they can sell their investment apartments?"

memito, I can't speak for anyone, but while steveF and petrfitz are obvious examples of people who are blindly optimistic and/or shills, there is a flipside to that nature as well. Everyone comes here with some sort of agenda, and if you read enough of people's posts, you can start to get a sense of who's actively trying to push an agenda along. That said, I'm still amazed that anyone thinks what they write on here can affect the market in any remotely significant way, but I guess some feel it can't hurt to try.

bjw...hey bears!. As long as I don't have to I won't sell. Almost did but stock investing can give you heart attacks(ie not healthy). Also, I only post to counter the bears. I'd like the silent-on-the-fence buyer/seller to get both sides of the story. I will counter your doom and gloom any day. If u guys would just stfu then I wouldn't feel the need to shut you down. Anyhow, it's great fun also. Especially when I rank on swe. it's funny, I never ever start with swe she always starts with me with her bitchiness so I have to take her apart. Which you all know I do. Have a great day!

and yes current listings prices for my market(Condo/Studios) are down about 5%-6% from the highest they have ever been. Fact. Will they sell right now? Who knows? But the listings are a lot higher then they were a year ago. That is fact.

steveF, do you put smiley faces above your i's? hearts, maybe?

and the number of listings have been cut in half.

condos in established buildings in neighborhoods without a lot of inventory overhang have been outperforming the general market, for many reasons. so while you might not be trying to cherry pick, likely you are.

I went from bear to bull.you have to be in before things turn.

aboutready, which hoods?

I'd change that to almost new construction in established neighborhoods(meaning sponsor has left the building developments) in prime neighborhoods. No Frontier buildings in this environment.

"Also, I only post to counter the bears. I'd like the silent-on-the-fence buyer/seller to get both sides of the story. I will counter your doom and gloom any day. If u guys would just stfu then I wouldn't feel the need to shut you down. Anyhow, it's great fun also."

steveF, that's not doing your cred any favors. I'm fully on board with getting as many perspectives as possible, as long as there's no blatant distortion or trying to tell/exaggerate a story that just isn't there, and unfortunately that's something both you and your nemesis seem to have in common (which is kind of funny in a way).

"and yes current listings prices for my market"

I've said it a lot, but will say it again: list prices mean next to nothing. What they actually trade at is what people should care about.

"I went from bear to bull.you have to be in before things turn."

marco, why? What's changed that makes you bullish? Just owning? That can't be right.

I think things have already started to turn and the govt has shown they will break every rule in order to prevent any more economic disasters. The place I got was a fair price and I love the hood. And now like every other gambler, Im rooting for my investment to go up.

actually, it doesn't have to be prime neighborhoods. but yes by established i meant the sponsor was mostly or entirely through with sales (sometimes it's difficult to tell). and a few buildings so overachieved their neighborhoods that they are feeling some disproportionate pain on the way down.

buildings filled with rentals/investors are also not doing so well. which makes a whole lot of sense.

marco, I get it, but I think there's a difference between just rooting for your investment to appreciate (though I believe you live in it, and I'm one of those kooks who don't think owner-occupied RE should be deemed an investment) and honestly believing in near-term price appreciation. I own myself, but I don't foresee any real appreciation in the near term, despite the government's involvement, and even despite the somewhat amazing rents people are now paying in my neighborhood.

I live in it..I view it as a home and as an investment which is pretty cool. I plan to leave the city in around 10yrs or so, so thats my horizon.

> bjw...hey bears!. As long as I don't have to I won't sell.

Just because you can stomach the punishment doesn't make it a good idea.
Like Chris Rock said... "You can drive with your feet... but that DON'T MAKE IT A GOOD IDE-A!"

> Almost did but stock investing can give you heart attacks(ie not healthy).

Well, when you do it without a clue, sure...

> Also, I only post to counter the bears. I'd like the silent-on-the-fence buyer/seller
> to get both sides of the story.

Then you are doing a horrible job of that. If the counter to the bears is the unintelligent stuff you come up with, that just proves the bears more right. You're like Alpo. You only hurt your case with painfully bad arguments.

The are bulls on this board much more equipped than you to have the argument, you should let them have it.

To be honest, I've from time to time thought you were you're a bear intentionally making horrific mistakes.

> I will counter your doom and gloom any day.

I will say, it is pretty funny when you try.

> If u guys would just stfu then I wouldn't feel the need to shut you down.

Hey Steve, thats the best advice you've ever had for yourself. Take it!

lol

> Anyhow, it's great fun also. Especially when I rank on swe.

You like getting your ass kicked? Wow, a glutton for punishment.

> so I have to take her apart. Which you all know I do.

ROTFL.

> it's funny, I never ever start with swe she always starts with me

hee, hee, i love it. Steve says he's here to counter arguments... but then he cries when anyone counters his.

You gonna run home crying again Steve? Scream to have folks who prove you wrong banned? Start a thread whining you don't like being challenged?

Poor, poor steve.

Sorry you can't take the heat, but it is pretty funny.

> steveF, do you put smiley faces above your i's? hearts, maybe?

ha

> it's funny, I never ever start with swe she always starts with me

And lets not start lying now, Steve... don't be a sore loser.

steveF
about 2 weeks ago
ignore this person
report abuse swe...the rent...it's the first of the month u gotta pay the rent. Did u pay it yet? I hope u did b/c your landlord has many people lining up to pay more than you with inventory dropping.

so swe go pay the off the landlord's principal. hat to stick it to you but you're such a d-ck or in your case "c"

bjw, a home is an investment by default. Most people's biggest investment is their home and in 30yrs when the mtg is paid off they will THANK GOD ALMIGHTY that they had bought.

Geezus, this thread tanked in a hurry. steveF, I don't think just because it's expensive it's an investment. I view it more as consumption than investment. You live in it; you sleep in it; you derive no steady income from it. If you're merely trying to extract the most dollar value out of the money you put in, it's most likely not the way to go, unless you were fortunate enough to ride a bubble (and I'm sure some did so quite knowingly).