Manhattan Market Still Down Big - 17.6% or More

thx, where are you getting lowset point data from....median price for 1 bed in Q3 2009 for example?

never die...we just multiply

Sounds like a mix issue to me

studio apartment in park west village $550k...doesn't sound down very much..

the mix in prices for 3 and 4 bdrm apts is very broad, such that strength in these numbers is likely wrong--it is well known that very recently there has been a big uptick in number of trades in ultralux (10mm and up) apts--nearly all of these apts have >3 bdrms, soo when a few of the ultralux's trade, the 3 and 4 bdrm medians pop---the number says little about vanilla 3 and 4 bdrm stock--the medians on smaller sizes tend to be more accurate as they have fewer outlier high-priced ultralux apt mixed in

and then there's that, based on comps, juicy's pad trades up >17%--which puts well above his estimate of prior peak--some people always get it right

Wbottom, good first point. The medians for those categories should always be taken with a grain of salt, though it is pretty interesting that the volumes for 3+ beds has been much higher recently that it ever has. For 2010, 1,786 sales in that category, compared to 544 in 2005, and 545 in 2000.

On your second point, why so incessantly bitter?

it seems like a formula that isnt swayed or takes into account a variable such as a few outliers that drag prices up is needed.... anythoughts on the best measure that isnt influenced as strongly by a shift in percentage of what types of apts are being traded

bjw, the bitterness comes from the fact that I chose not to invest in stocks with my down payment, where I could have watched my money go down 50% and then watched it ride up over the last couple years to -10%. I also could have negotiated one free month of rent somewhere and possibly even could have got a great deal on a crappy high rise in Northwest Midtown.

"thx, where are you getting lowset point data from....median price for 1 bed in Q3 2009 for example?"

This is all Miller Samuel quarterly data off the web site.

"Sounds like a mix issue to me"

Juice, agreed its a mix issue... I pointed that out months ago. But to me the mix actually covers up LARGER declines. The by size listings are down 20% or more. And as noah noted, you can't do psfs because square footage is generally made up, there is nothing official to it. So the bedrooms are more accurate... although someone pointed out BATHROOMS is actually the most accurate, you can't lie.

"Strange, the Q4 numbers came out, with some pretty substantial changes, and there actually hasn't been much continued talk about it. Are the bulls finally packing it in? Is there finally agreement that maybe, just maybe, the market fell?"

8 posts. Compared to hundreds and hundreds on this data last year.

Have we proven the point?

Im glad I just bought...I like having my own place. If this recovery is for real, you have to be in already because once things really have picked up, the selleres will be gone.

"Have we proven the point?"

Yes, facts should be measured solely by the volume of responses to your threads ;)

For the record, I think the data are good, but nothing much has changed since the last time these were posted, hence the relative lack of interest. Nothing personal - it's (usually) the more sensational posts that get most of the attention around here anyway.

"If this recovery is for real, you have to be in already because once things really have picked up, the selleres will be gone."

marco, depends what you mean by "recovery." Not much so far - things are relatively flat of late (here come some greyed-out expletives from w67th), and if the trend continues, why in the world would you have to be "in already"? I think the days of rampant bidding wars and rushing to buy are gone. That's a great thing.

I think the recover is actually stronger than what people think. on a side note, IBM just put up big numbers

Did IBM increase its profitable sales, or just (indiscriminately) slash its costs ... like, for example, personnel?

"I think the recover is actually stronger than what people think."

Based on what?

wishful thinking.

there's no recovery. just a depression.

thank you hfscomm1.

"Did IBM increase its profitable sales, or just (indiscriminately) slash its costs ... like, for example, personnel?"

Is IBM going to buy your apartment?

Ill let you guys slice and dice IBM...anyway you look at it, its positive for the economy

Grow up.

No matter what it's good for the economy?

What doe that sound like to you?

Marco-mthrfker. IBM is a service business akin to the geek squad. Go USA go USA go USA! Or is it go india go india go india!? FLMAOzzzzz.

Marco's take on mega ballz. Gotta be in it to win it!!!!!! Hey every $1k invested in mega balls increases your chances of winning. Stfu and buy some more nyc re.

Ya never gonna know when nyc re is gonna turn and start pumping up 20%/yr for 10 yrs straight!!!!! Gotta be in it to win it!!!!!!

How many financial re retards even max out on their 401ks? Anyone anyone? Yet the general population completely goes balls deep in re? Nuff said. Nyc re is just the same set of financial retards, with $1mm studios.

companies are raising capital in the debt and equity markets everyday....good times are a comin!!

marco, you just don't get it, do you?

companies are raising money so they can invest in china and india. china has started a new company to produce planes. rich americans so far are reaping the benefits of emerging market growth, but one wonders how long this will happen, and when emerging market companies will subsidize their own industries to provide the same goods to their people.

be happy in your studio/one bedroom in yorkville. if i recall i suggested it as a neighborhood. but it's not really a profit growth possibility.

marco you crazy optimist!
Love your energy, keep cheering!

We're like Germans...either at your throat or at your feet!

I get it..I get that employee tax witholding receipts have been growing steadily over that last few quarters. I also get the employment and new orders components of the empire manufacturing survey which came out today were also up again...all Im sayin is that I think the tides have turned and the healing has begun. Im goin long..we'll see how it works out.

by the way...yorkville rocks!!!! go st. joes!!

you do realize that the empire survey came out a full two points below expectations? oh well, whatever.

Fair enough, marco. But are you projecting relative stability or actual appreciation? The latter I'd be stunned at. The former, maybe.

Im projecting that things have gotten better and that a rising tide lifts all boats. I was a bear for along time, but its just as important to be able to change your views as it is to have one.

Marco: To quote Stephen Roach (again): The Fed has engineered a false prosperity.

or, even better, to quote jamie dimon, a financial crisis is something that happens every 5 or so years.

have fun.

Isn't the fed policy (whatever one thinks of it) to create a "false" prosperity so that the natural rebound of the economy (feasible?) eventually kicks in (i.e, after cutbacks, etc) to rescue..well. everything. I am not saying it will work, or is wise (personally, I'd like to see a recalibration to rationale asset values that would lead, eventually, to greater growth) . I'm just saying it may well be a conscious policy to do create something "false."

Major US banks were effectively bankrupt in the early 90s but it was pretended away; a harsh mark to market in those days would have exacerbated the crisis. I well remember my well-connected division head freaking out with the good-old-boys about the whole drama; it passed.

I put my money where my mouth is...roll those dice baby

>bjw, the bitterness comes from the fact that I chose not to invest in stocks with my down payment, where I could have watched my money go down 50% and then watched it ride up over the last couple years to -10%. I also could have negotiated one free month of rent somewhere and possibly even could have got a great deal on a crappy high rise in Northwest Midtown.

I have nothing to say, brilliant art should be untouched by others

>or, even better, to quote jamie dimon, a financial crisis is something that happens every 5 or so years.

Right, so we can assume you've lived through at least 4 crises, perhaps many more. And what, over this period, the U.S. has been destroyed? Financial crises, like winters, happen. We progress. Except those who are afraid of their shadows.

"How many financial re retards even max out on their 401ks? Anyone anyone? Yet the general population completely goes balls deep in re? Nuff said. Nyc re is just the same set of financial retards, with $1mm studios."

Well, you need a lot of idiots to create a bubble.

"Im projecting that things have gotten better and that a rising tide lifts all boats. I was a bear for along time, but its just as important to be able to change your views as it is to have one."

The BIG mistake in this logic is assuming that the recovery from a bubble means a return to bubble prices.

I've been saying over and over again since the darkest days "yes, the economy will get better". But confusing that with a return to RE prices of yore is a pretty fundamental and huge mistake. Did our recovery from the tech bust mean pets.com went back to its original price?

god bless our marco--a big blundering happy guy--dumb as a shoe but always cheerful and optimistic

very well said:

Did our recovery from the tech bust mean pets.com went back to its original price?

"The BIG mistake in this logic is assuming that the recovery from a bubble means a return to bubble prices."

Well, to be fair, you're completely assuming marco means a return to bubble prices. That would be incredibly optimistic, but "projecting things will get better" is not the same as predicting a sudden 25% appreciation, is it? We will eventually return to those bubble prices - it's just going to take a while (2021 according to Moody's, FWIW).

why am I dumb as a shoe? all Ive done is state my opinion along with the facts I have to support it. I dont hink bubble prices are coming back anytime soon eiether. I do think that this is a good time to invest in real estate for the long haul.

all manhattan markets are not the same. for example, yorkville small units provide some of the best options in terms of rent/buy that can currently be found, but i also think they have the most potential (along with midtown small coops) for future loss. the wealth effect can explain the bubble prices for some submarkets, but certainly not all of them.

"brand new kitchen" too. 320 days on the market.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/495954-coop-244-east-90th-street-yorkville-new-york
03/23/2006Previous Sale recorded for $275,000.
12/10/2007Previous Sale recorded for $360,000.
02/13/2010Listed by Citi-Habitats at $359,999.
03/04/2010Price decreased by 0% to $359,000.
03/15/2010Price decreased by 9% to $325,000.
04/20/2010Price decreased by 8% to $299,000.
07/28/2010Price decreased by 3% to $289,000.
08/03/2010Price decreased by 5% to $275,000.
09/29/2010Price decreased by 9% to $250,000.
12/20/2010Listing entered contract.

I saw that place...kitchen floor had a slope so bad you could practice putting on it. also one of those places that uses the airshaft window as the technicality to call it a 1br...when its really just a studio cut in 1/2.

comps are comps, marco. it's a same unit resale, and it's been improved since the prior two sales. of course people have paid ridiculously high prices for inferior product. the question is just how ridiculously high those prices will be going forward. just a hunch, but i think less.

what abt this one ?

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/538525-condo-400-east-90th-street-yorkville-new-york

or this one

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/519079-coop-515-east-88th-street-yorkville-new-york

Any idea how many sf is the one that aboutready cited? I don't like that area at all but have given some thought to buyingbuying something like that as a holding pattern until I feel comfortable investing more for a nicer place in in the future, say three or four years down the road.

marco, one of those is a condo, which is a very different beast, and the other looks like it has been renovated. a lot of inventory got swallowed up during the tax credit, but i don't see things looking very rosy going forward.

buyerbuyer, make sure you get something that has flexible subletting policies. some buildings do, and with the rent/buy ratios being decent there wouldn't be a lot of risk.

excuses excuses

I was going to mention that issue of subletting. If the building was pretty flexible in policy or the residents don't care or aren't vigilant, some people make good money subletting simply furnished places for short term on craigslist (not day to day, which is a huge hassle, but say three months at a time). (I haven't seen it discussed on this board but it's quite amazing how many buildings there are where people are somehow getting away subletting on craigslist.)

btw, a lot of the weakness i'm seeing is for units still on the market. how about this one? 3C. 4C closed in 01/05 for $238k, and in 07/10 for $240k, and wasn't nearly as expensively renovated.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/553535-coop-220-east-87th-street-yorkville-new-york

09/14/2010Listed by Corcoran at $320,000.
09/22/2010Price decreased by 8% to $295,000.
10/10/2010Price decreased by 8% to $269,999.
11/29/2010Price decreased by 8% to $249,000.

It gives my buyerbuyer persona great pause when prices get slashed like that; you really need to be careful not to overpay one would say....

Any thoughts on this west village apartment. 92 Horatio.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/562820-coop-92-horatio-street-west-village-new-york

Nice area, somewhat grim building with awful hallways BUT elevator, storage can be rented, bike storage, some roof space can be bought if you're on the top floor, and inside some of the apartments have a lot of character with exposed brick. I have no idea why seven units for sale in this building, and have been at least since Nov when I went to several OH. 5B is a beautiful little apartment that feels bigger than it is.

"btw, a lot of the weakness i'm seeing is for units still on the market. how about this one? 3C. 4C closed in 01/05 for $238k, and in 07/10 for $240k, and wasn't nearly as expensively renovated."

$622 psf. Is something in the 500s so far away? Wonder if we have one already.

aboutready
about 2 years ago
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or, even better, to quote jamie dimon, a financial crisis is something that happens every 5 or so years.

have fun.

Weird how we are down even more than when this was origially posted.

somewhereelse
about 6 hours ago
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Weird how we are down even more than when this was origially posted.

And yet we didn't have the bank crisis that AR says that JD "famously" promised.

I've seen magicians work their magic.
I've seen illusionist complete blaffle our mind.

First time i've seen a delusionalist post delusional thoughts.

Welcome to the mental asylum folks.
See ya.

Ericho, how do you manage to spend so much time on this board, not 5 seconds to look at the actual median stats.

Jeez, talk about delusion.

Jeez

greensdale
about 2 weeks ago
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aboutready
about 2 years ago
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or, even better, to quote jamie dimon, a financial crisis is something that happens every 5 or so years.

What a frustrated tool. Or a child. Neither option is desirable. How is this worthy? Or interesting? To regurgitate old threads needlessly posting the same shit. Are you worried you're not getting enough people to read your drivel so you have to spew it endlessly? I think that's it. Sad mofo.

AR, just admit you falsely attributed a statement to Jamie Dimon, which has in any case been proven wrong with the passage of time, and stop remaking the reference just to support your dour view of the US and of humanity while you walk away a false victim feeling entitled to everyone else's money. If you stop, if you didn't make the reference just today, there'd be no need to call on this or other threads where you originally made these false references.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/market/condo_index

Hard to argue

To refer to Jamie's reference - I think it's the scale that's been misinterpeted. People are thinking that he meant that something as signifcant as the crisis of the last 6 years is going to occur every 5 years. He was referencing that somewhere in the world, there is a financial crisis, and that you can't legislate that away, you just have to plan for it. Some affect us significatnly, others not at all.

1987 Black Monday
Savings and loan crisis of the 1980s and 1990s in the U.S
1991 India economic crisis,
Finnish banking crisis (1990s)
Swedish banking crisis (1990s)
1994 economic crisis in Mexico
1997 Asian financial crisis
1998 Russian financial crisis
Argentine economic crisis (1999–2002).

So no end of the world? AR has been spending the lawsuit money on canned goods ( bananas go bad, sometimes even before they arrive ).

> http://streeteasy.com/nyc/market/condo_index
> Hard to argue

Yup, even that one (which only covers the segment of the market that should be doing better) says we're still down major...

Yet the bulls keep arguing, don't they.

Delusion, yes.

I see listings 20-50% higher than previous sale for a sample of properties. Grant it, this is just a sample and may not be fully representative. However I didn't look for them just to make a point. The previous sales were from 2009-2012. These are listed (ask) so its still to be determined if they will sell at these prices but are others seeing a big increase in ask prices and ask prices that are much higher in the last 3-6 months compared to 2012 (and earlier) asks and actual sales?

Not index or general statistics, but actual same unit or very good comp (i.e. same building, same unit within same building, same floor in same building).

"Yup, even that one (which only covers the segment of the market that should be doing better) says we're still down major..."

LMAO!!!!

@Oxymoronic

"1987 Black Monday
Savings and loan crisis of the 1980s and 1990s in the U.S
1991 India economic crisis,
Finnish banking crisis (1990s)
Swedish banking crisis (1990s)
1994 economic crisis in Mexico
1997 Asian financial crisis
1998 Russian financial crisis
Argentine economic crisis (1999–2002)."

2013 Japan yen devaluation (-33% in *six months*!)

"Yup, even that one (which only covers the segment of the market that should be doing better) says we're still down major..."

Depends on your definition of "major". 6% down from peaky, peak. Doesn't seem major to me.

Also, find it funny that this is the market that "should be doing better". Weren't you one on this board predicting the condo apocalypse?

I can only say from my experience. I bought numerous condos at their peak in 2007. Yeah, I know. Anyway it has taken time but the units I have are all up 7% to over 20%. Maybe I lucked out on the actual buildings. What has not yet come back is the rents. Still down as much as 10% from peak.

Rates are lower today than at any time in the past. It kind of makes sense that people would be willing to purchase/hold apartments at higher cap rates than they did in the past.

What will happen now? Ny RE still going up?

I should add with mortgage rates up and going higher?

"LMAO!!!!"

I'm glad you can laugh about your own mistakes.

"6% down from peaky, peak. Doesn't seem major to me"

Much, much more by the other measure we've been tracking, as I noted. And, did you forget... real terms? Even the 6% quickly jumps to mid double digits.

"Anyway it has taken time but the units I have are all up 7% to over 20%."

Perfitz is back! His apartments are up because he says so!

reminds me of the zillow survey where 90% of americans think their house is worth more than their neighbor.

"Much, much more by the other measure we've been tracking, as I noted. And, did you forget... real terms? Even the 6% quickly jumps to mid double digits."

What other measure? Medians? The lady doth protest too much, methinks.

The lady had paid over $200k in rent over the past few years while complaining about NY real estate. Values have gone up and her landlord loves putting her take home in his bank account

anecdotanally, we're all rich!!

inflation? balderdash! pisttachio!

excelsior!

This thread is so old school SE. A bull v. bear tastes-great-less-filling exercise in talking past one another, featuring so many of the classic posters. We just need appearances from w67 and stevejhx to make it a full reunion

>inflation? balderdash! pisttachio!

>excelsior!

But yet you criticize me for calling Jason a retard.

>We just need appearances from w67 and stevejhx to make it a full reunion

When Apple hits $390 again we'll hear from w67.
Steve is busy on the gold thread being supported by Jason the retard.

LMAO!!!

This has to be one of the all time "look how dumb i am" thread on this board.

And nobody has a bigger funhouse mirror facing him than you do.

somewhereelse wants to maintain his fantasy that he has been better off as a renter the last 10 years, and his delusion that NYC real estate prices crashed. Yes, it is sad and he would probably be better off admitting how foolishly wrong he was in his predictions, but I guess denial makes him feel better.

Oh no, it's the dude with the grayed out username! Run before his apocalyptic view of owning a place gets to you.

Since the 2000 highs of 1512, the S&P is up only 4.8% for the past 13 years.
Without a doubt, NYC housing had outperformed.

Since the 2007 highs of 1576, the S&P is up .006% for the past 6 years.
That was the same period where some areas of housing peaked in NYC. Right now in areas like Williamsburg and LIC, prices are 15-20% beyond the 2007 highs.

"This has to be one of the all time "look how dumb i am" thread on this board."

I'm so glad you can finally admit your problem.

"Without a doubt, NYC housing had outperformed."

Sure. The problem is, you're creating a fake argument. The arguments here were from, what, 2006/7 on? So the arguments were on further gains.

And as the stats show... FAIL. S&P outperformed. By far.

2007 highs of S&P was 1576.

S&P is trading at 1586 rtq.

OH THE HORROR!!

Time for the bulls to stop being dishonest about the argument at hand... using the S&P peak as the start.
That's petty.

Let's look at the actual arguments... stocks well off their peak already...
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/3411-for-those-who-believe-investing-in-the-s-and-p-is-better-than-buying-manhattan-re

and they continued well after, down near the bottom. I won't even compare by 400% returns...

Don't be dishonest guys...

In 2007/2008 5SL condos in LIC sold for about 700-800 psf.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/search?search=5sl

Today it's at 850-900 psf giving about a 20% return.

20% return since 2007 is FAR BETTER than .006%.

Who's the dishonest one here?

"using the S&P peak as the start.
That's petty."

Isn't that WHAT YOU DO WITH HOUSING EVEN THOUGH YOU JOINED ON OCTOBER 2009?!?!??!

That's October 2009...almost 6 MONTHS AFTER THE MARKET HAS BOTTOMED!!!!

There's Only a few people on here that defended the purchase of stocks and housing in SPRING of 2009 and all the way to the SUMMER of 2009.

YOU ARE NOT ONE OF THEM.

You come on these boards after the stock market has RALLIED almost 60% off the LOWS!!!

Who's the dishonest one here?

LIC? what a joke. The most underperforming submarket in the city--worse even than the UES.

let's see some legit comps. woops there aint none!