NYC Condos On The Rebound...........

This time, we really really really mean it.

Theres a lot of money out there thats for sure.

Hmmm, a studio in Yorkville or a matching pair of yellow & red Lamborghinis. Hard choices...

It's being driven by people from BRICs AND fIGs and CJKs. In other words driven by foreign investment.

figs , cjk's ?? those are new ones

funny--- way to hedge yourself---

"the condo sector appears to be clawing its way back, according to brokers, developers"

going to add this to stupid things brokers say,
"Indeed, the current average condo price of $1,400 a square foot is expected to shoot up to $2,000 per square foot once all the planned condos go up, said Ms. Mack, adding, “We are truly entering a new development renaissance.”"

That one, on a macro scale, was a bit much.

> This time, we really really really mean it.

ROFLMAO or REALLY ROFLMAO

> BRICs AND fIGs and CJKs.

Forgot to mention Mars, venus, saturns, plutos, etc :)

> It's being driven by people from BRICs

If you just pull your head out of your arse for a quick second and notice that China and Brazil have just "eased." In other words, their economy is either in the sh*tcan or teetering so .. yeah, "it's been driven by people from BRIC.

"If you just pull your head out of your arse for a quick second and notice that China and Brazil have just "eased." In other words, their economy is either in the sh*tcan or teetering so .. yeah, "it's been driven by people from BRIC."

More armageddon! LOL!!!!

Here is an interesting take which I came across recently:

http://ochousingnews.com/news/house-prices-in-new-england-crashing

In this piece Keith Jurow states that in New York, banks are required by law to notify the state if payments from owner occupied first liens are in arrears. He says these numbers stopped being published in Oct 2010 (hmmmmm) but can be obtained from the state if you are persistent enough. Although I could not really see the charts in this video, hopefully I pulled some of the stats he stated correctly here:

As of first quarter in NYC there are 192,000 owner occupied first liens that are seriously delinquent relative to 730,000 total first liens in NYC (26%). If one included delinquient first liens on investor properties this would be higher relative to the 730k total.

I have no idea what is a normal amount of delinquency, but this reported stats seem high to me.

Yea, that makes Ms. Mack's statement all that more absurd.

New York City is five boroughs. Delinquency trends in Queens, Brooklyn, etc are far worse than Manhattan. Mack is most likely speaking of Manhattan and not really all of NYC.

Still absurd

Additionally, the article includes the boroughs

For what it is worth, he also said the percentage is growing and long island is 40% serious delinquent.

People having been living for free in some cases over 3 years (he gets into having to refile the paperwork after three years if the original notice had not been forclosed on in that period).

Even if this delinquiency was totally confined to the outer boroughs and Manhattan had 0 forclosures, I really can't see a way to spin this as anything but negative (for all of NYC).

I'm chilling out to afrika bambaata 'Don't Stop... Planet Rock' and can't stop picturing riverturd with an afro and funky sunglasses singing 'don't stop!' as his wishes for continuance of the extend pretend for nyc re!

Then w81, Ali and urbandigs sings the chorus......

Go nyc re bullzzzzz. You know ya gotta sample it on iTunes!

This one is for you W67:

Manhattan forcefield ON!

heh heh

Also - Keith Jurow is on board with your outlook - at the end of his piece he is calling for a 50% drop greater NYC wide in the next 3 years.

Lecker... It's like telling your dude friend, his girlfriend's Adams apple is way too big for a girl.

Why can't they see the girl is pretty DUDE?

>It's like telling your dude friend, his girlfriend's Adams apple is way too big for a girl.

This never happened to me or any of my family, friends, acquaintances, business partners or colleagues, or even anyone I've even read about in the Post.

> Also - Keith Jurow is on board with your outlook - at the end of his piece he is calling for a 50% drop greater NYC wide in the next 3 years

that's ARMAGEDDON .. THAT WILL NEVER HAPPEN ... 8) ... folks who say it'll never happen is either sh*ting in their pants b/c they see what's happening and can't pull their head out of their arses or the sand, i.e., ostrich.

Listen to the end of this segment when Brusuelas mentions the "mythical housing recovery" ...

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/weiner-economy-dependent-on-politicians-5tNumIdZRbq38euw3RJw_Q.html

Yeah, yeah, yeah ... NYC is SO DIFFERENT that prices here NEVER DECLINE and everyone is a cash "BILLIONAIRE" buyers ... what are a delusional bunch ... same crap we heard before the bubble burst .. ROFLMAO

> New York City is five boroughs. Delinquency trends in Queens, Brooklyn, etc are far worse than Manhattan. Mack is most likely speaking of Manhattan and not really all of NYC.

Only Martians live in NYC and they print Benjies. The majority of Manhattanites don't work and have unlimited income. That's is why Manhattan is SO DIFFERENT from the other 5 boroughs!!!

You silly bears, don't you get it ? Sheeeeshush .. ROFLMAO

> More armageddon! LOL!!!!

When reality smacks you in the face and that overpriced 1.2M 1BR bought at the height of the bubble is now worth less than 700K, that's when it's LOL! .... 8)

str33: Don't you realize you've been talking to yourself for the past 16 hours. LOL!!!!!!!!!!!

> str33: Don't you realize you've been talking to yourself for the past 16 hours. LOL!!!!!!!!!!!

It's 17 hours actually but what's another hour just like what's another 200K in "paper losses" right ? :) J/K .. having some fun w/yah ..

shouldn't refis be at all time highs with the 10yr note at all time lows of 1.44%?

rhetorical....

Miller/Sams

$ p sq ft "condo only" --- # of sales

1stQ '11 $1216---964
2ndQ '11 $1182---1284
3rdQ '11 $1233---1789
4thQ '11 $1295---1015

1stQ '12 $1201---1132
2ndQ '12 $1317---934

Though I personally believe the low market inventory is somewhat collusionary.
Im not big on most conspiracy theories but it doesnt take much to realize the market wants better control over market stats. 2 handfuls of brokers and developers could easily collude and bite the bullet for a couple quarters to try and light a fire, particularly on new development condos. Co-ops on the other hand would be real tough.

The next 2 quarters should be interesting as well as Bush tax cuts might actually really expire and may drove some to close by Dec.

> The next 2 quarters should be interesting as well as Bush tax cuts might actually really expire and may drove some to close by Dec.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/31825-the-mansion-cliff

The lack of inventory is quite "interesting" as you said along with the lack of "foreclosure" in the NY metro area.

2nd Quarter 2012:

Prices UP, Inventory DOWN, Price cuts DOWN, Closings UP, Contracts Up, Days on Market DOWN.

http://docs.streeteasy.com/market_reports/2012Q2_Report.pdf

Sounds like a good market to me.

>Sounds like a good market to me.

Indeed, it is designed for the plebs to think so.

I'll save you the trouble of looking it up.
Plebs = prototypical lame effacing broker shills

lmfao

Of course the actually numbers from the SE condo index go up every month and this has been a record season for deal-making despite the low volume http://urbandigs.com/2012/07/june_in_the_books_--_manhattan.html
I don't understand comments from some posters that "Manhattan real estate will continue to slide..." when it is clearly been rising for some time. Now a good argument would be where real estate will be in 2014. It certainly could crash down again but it certainly is not falling now.

truth, I guess the numbers have you in a bind, the only truth you speak is when you're sleeping. Another aramageddon guy, the roof is falling in, lets all run. LOL!

Brooksie how are things in the Bronx??? That's the only borough I'd take your advice on! Ha....Ha...Ha...!

Where have I said anywhere the roof is falling in?
I actually bought a year and half ago at near 30% below peak. I want nothing less than the economy to be strong and have another 15 year bubble run.
I'm still bear"ish" because the numbers don't lie. Between unemployment where it is, interest rates where they are, and rent per sq ft to own per sq foot ratios are, it is not sustainable.
I also know what juked stats look like.
No armageddon, but no recovery either.

I have extra means to afford a home as a non investment.
Manhattan condos are highly driven as investment purchases. Please explain to me how buying a condo at $1300 per sq ft and getting a tenant at what?...$50 per sq ft is a good investment? That's like 25 times rent roll.
(to the rest of the forum that is a rhetorical question, no need for a rent vs buy postfest for the umpteenth time)

I have many broker friends and have read many of the idiotic inter office memos to rally the troops with some moronic mantra for that particular quarter.
Your answer to my question is just in your "shillers guide to the next closing" manual.

Please pitch me on why I should buy a second apartment, a condo now as an investment.
Let's see if your a senator instead of a pleb.

Let's start off by saying it's as good a market as you're going to get to buy a primary residence in Manhattan. I don't believe that we will see pricing subtantially falling or rising over the next 24 months. After that I believe the market will rise along with or slightly better than the rate of inflation.

As for investment properties, I don't see why you have to spend $1,300 a square foot, there are plenty of Manhattan condos for sale, 679 on StreetEasy, that sell for between $500 and $1,000 a sqft. As to whether these would be good investment opportunities, that you'll have to analyze.

As to why you have to have your tenant in Manhattan and not one of the boroughs, or the suburbs or for that matter out of state I'm not clear on. Your may want to live in Manhattan but your tenant doesn't have to, there are probably better opportunities with a much smaller investment elsewhere. That's my opinion.

Ok, props for playing along.....

>Let's start off by saying it's as good a market as you're going to get to buy a primary residence in Manhattan.

Response; But this won't be a primary residence. I already stated I bought a home. I read in a NY Times article that a ton of international buyers are buying condos in manhattan. I like them also would not not be privy to deductions for any mortgage I take as this will be a second home.

>I don't believe that we will see pricing subtantially falling or rising over the next 24 months. After that I believe the market will rise along with or slightly better than the rate of inflation.

Response; So you think the presidential election in 4 months will have no effect on the market in NYC for the next 24 months. Or that interest rates will remain the same or go up by no more than 1% in the next 24 months? No renewal of Bush tax cuts or partial renewal (250K and lower)?

>As for investment properties, I don't see why you have to spend $1,300 a square foot, there are plenty of Manhattan condos for sale, 679 on StreetEasy, that sell for between $500 and $1,000 a sqft.

Response; Well the average price for condos is $1300 per square foot. How many of the 679 between $500 and $1000 a sq ft are not in lower east side,BPC,north of 96th street or maintenance over $1.50 per sq ft? If we are falling away from the average price,then we have to highlight what might be a negating impact on the other side of the equation.

>As to whether these would be good investment opportunities, that you'll have to analyze.
Response; That's what we are doing.

>As to why you have to have your tenant in Manhattan and not one of the boroughs, or the suburbs or for that matter out of state I'm not clear on. Your may want to live in Manhattan but your tenant doesn't have to, there are probably better opportunities with a much smaller investment elsewhere. That's my opinion

Response; The article and the numbers are all manhattan centric. But in the context of the pitch, so are you indirectly now telling me, maybe manhattan is too expensive and maybe invest in the other boroughs instead?

> Plebs = prototypical lame effacing broker shills

CLASSIC!!!

> After that I believe the market will rise along with or slightly better than the rate of inflation.

this goes to show truth was 1000% DEAD ON! Nice parroting of your shill manual Inflation ? ROFLMAORH .. RH = really hard. Inflation ? ROFLMAO .. do u even understand what that means ? Inflation ? Don't stray away from your shill manual! You might sound just a tad more intelligent than a 3rd grader to 99% of the public.

Hey RENY did you say $500PSF ?

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/647948-coop-345-east-56th-street-sutton-place-new-york

LMFAO...

1/29/2011
Listed by Douglas Elliman at $579,000.
03/13/2012
Price decreased by 5% to $550,000.
03/27/2012
Price decreased by 2% to $540,000.
04/30/2012
Price decreased by 2% to $529,000.
06/06/2012
Price decreased by 2% to $519,000.
06/19/2012
Price decreased by 2% to $509,000.
06/29/2012
Listing is no longer available.

wait doesn't this guy know there's a Whole Foods coming.... still LMFAO

Wow truthskr10 like the way you schooled RENY!

Finally someone else sees how full of shit he is or just plan dumb.

So RENY what part of the country do you think is a good place to invest in?

just plan dumb. i hope that was intentional. really i do.

Truth: I was in a similar situation years ago, owned a condo and rented one out. My advice is to look for a condo that has the lowest possible taxes and maintenance, generally in a very large building, over 300 apartments. If you ultimately find a property you deem appropriate, make sure to screen and screen again before you select a tenant. Generally speaking, the higher the rent, the more turnover you will get and that means lost rent, luckily you will have a partner in Uncle Sam, expenses and depreciation are your friend. It worked out well for me. Good Luck.

Brooks: Just because a listig lists sqft doesn't mean it's fact. Do the calculation yourself. Talk about a dummy.

Same building, in contract, $900 per sqft:

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/665003-coop-345-east-56th-street-sutton-place-new-york

I guess because they didn't list the sqft, you can't calculate it! LOL!

Go back to the Bronx! Ha...Ha .....Ha....

> So RENY what part of the country do you think is a good place to invest in?

mym, RENY has a few underwater lux "micro-lofts" he likes to sell to you! It's the best investment bar none. It's a bargain too .. only 150% above the bubble peak! And if you don't buy it now, it's a lost opportunity and life will pass you by!

funny-- RENY giving Truthskr10 advice-- lol

ar, plain, plane, play, plan(ok i don't think he plans it or plays it or even flys)..typo.. but you get the drift.. special needs.. probably

No such thing as bear or bull in my mind. I just can't seem to get the numbers to work in favor of buying, and I'm very cautious about putting down so much money in a down payment when this is the case. When the numbers work, I'll reconsider.

> No such thing as bear or bull in my mind. I just can't seem to get the numbers to work in favor of buying, and I'm very cautious about putting down so much money in a down payment when this is the case. When the numbers work, I'll reconsider.

Can you give an example of why the #s don't work for the benefit of our perma-bulls friends on the board ? Thx

"Let's start off by saying it's as good a market as you're going to get to buy a primary residence in Manhattan."
-broker today
-broker yesterday
-broker last month
-broker in 2011
-broker in 2010
-broker in 2009
-broker in 2008
-broker in 2007....

> I actually bought a year and half ago at near 30% below peak.

no way, no how. nothing has ever gone down 30%....

>no way, no how. nothing has ever gone down 30%....

SWE, can't tell if your being facetious or not.

i can't tell either...

elsewhere's been pretty high on kudos from mumbojumbo of recent, so his writing is as clear as usual.

pls clarify.

> facetious

i think so

jeeze, look who's stoned on sumpin...i meant "his writing isn't as clear as usual"

whatever the case, jury's till out, for me, on facetious or not...elsewhere?...you somewhere? else?

definitely facetious.

facetious from the "broker shill manual"

yikes/bottoms, it just isn't your day, huh?

Street: yes, simple example. I like to rent direct from condo owners vs. rental buildings. When I looked around for apartments, I noticed several cases where you could either rent or buy the exact same unit. The math was never in favor of buying vs. renting; in most cases, it wasn't even close. I also tried plugging in the same numbers into the NYT buy-rent calculator with different assumptions for rent growth and price appreciation, and it still came out in favor of renting with any reasonable combination of variables I could think of.

> Street: yes, simple example. I like to rent direct from condo owners vs. rental buildings. When I looked around for apartments, I noticed several cases where you could either rent or buy the exact same unit. The math was never in favor of buying vs. renting; in most cases, it wasn't even close. I also tried plugging in the same numbers into the NYT buy-rent calculator with different assumptions for rent growth and price appreciation, and it still came out in favor of renting with any reasonable combination of variables I could think of.

thoth, thanks .. y u prefer to rent directly from condo owners vs rental buildings ? some condo owners are not particularly easy to deal with and can be quite delusional in what they think their unit is worth in terms of the rent.

>thoth, thanks .. y u prefer to rent directly from condo owners vs rental buildings ? some condo owners are not particularly easy to deal with and can be quite delusional in what they think their unit is worth in terms of the rent.

Just apply the inododo 6 Step Rental Process and put anyone disagreeable on the "Shitlist".

It's always great to take a look at some comments from 2 or 3 years ago , and see where we are now vs. then

You joined in April 2009 but all your posts are in the past week?

Hmmm maybe he's macro_m?

Street: simple answer - some condo owners may not be particularly easy to deal with, but I've noticed that almost all rental buildings don't really value good tenants. They always seem to go for high rent increases once leases end, and I was tired of playing this game with them because they assumed that I wasn't serious about moving. For the most part, the owners I've dealt with have been more rational. I think they are much better at recognizing that having an apartment sit empty for even a few weeks wipes out any major increase in rent that they were hoping to gain.

thoth: You're right that a condo owner values his/her "good" tenant much more than a rental building, since most rental buildings are big time operations and any individual apartment doesn't mean that much to them.

On the other side of the coin, if you sign a 1 or 2 year lease with an individual condo owner, you have no security beyond the lease. If the owner decides to occupy the apartment or sell it when your lease expires, you're out and have to bear the expense of a move you don't want to make under a 60 or 90 day clock. With a rental building, you can live there forever as long as you pay the rent on time and don't create a nuisance.

Everything is a trade-off.

agree w/RENY on the trade-off.

Real: Except that I bear the exact same risk when the rental building tries to charge me a much higher rent. I'm still "bearing the expense of a move that I didn't want to make", and I've found that this isn't a risk, it's a certainty. I also always ask for an option for an additional year in all of my leases, so that gives me some protection against being forced to move against my will.

Sprint will rebound much sooner than nyc re.

100% up in 6 months. And $20 transaction costs!!

> Except that I bear the exact same risk when the rental building tries to charge me a much higher rent.

thoth, y is that any different for a rental from an owner ? the owner can still charge u higher rent just the same.

Can you paint Sprint pistachio?

> SWE, can't tell if your being facetious or not.

Sorry for the delay guys, yes, facetious.

There was a whole thread of me being yelled at after posting the by apartment size numbers being down 25-30%, and a few guys laid into me that there were just no examples of that.

i think if you special order sprint might be available in aubergine.

@ alanhart. Hilarious. Welcome back.

No, you may NOT paint your Sprint shares. That's because you don't own them: you have options, you're just renting a promise of them. After a year, you will have nothing. No stock certificate that will be yours forever, to pass down to your kids. You will not be able to attend the shareholder meeting because you don't OWN anything.

What's more, despite the money you will make, you will never enjoy the psychic benefits of ownership. And you will always be on the outside looking in, longing to hold shares in premium companies like AT&T and Verizon.

My T shares paid me $0.44 in dividends last week. How much did your S shares pay out? Bupkis.

Second-rate share-renting fool.

Oh nada. Don't drink so much renter haterade. T gave you $.44 dividend and then took away $.71 share in market cap today even though my sprint went up today..... But why argue amongst friends.

If I'm sprint ($11b mkt cap) and you are verizon/AT&T ($325 b mkt cap), I just tried to be the alpha male when I should have just been happy to take the ugly girl. I'm so sorry, let's man hug and just give me 0.5% of your mkt cap and make me double my money.... So what'd ya say old pal, can't you spare an extra $10b in mkt cap? Just this once? And make my $700k investment go from $1mm to $2mm? I promise to buy you a gin and tonic, maybe even two. Hell, I'll throw in a sidecar

Fool -- prime Telecom always goes up!