Flatiron Inventory

Is there enough inertia in demand to support the brief flood of inventory in that area?

Will prices stabilize or continue to rise?

Thanks!

There is enough demand and then some. First you are talking about a few hundred units in a sub-market with tens and tens of thousands, as a percentage it is quite small. There is estimated to be billions around the world waiting on the sidelines to purchase prime Manhattan real estate, not including domestic buyers. It will likely cause average sales prices to rise as those units will be priced at the top of the market.

I know exaggeration is a good writing style sometimes, but I still cannot stop myself to reply to the previous comment. There are about 7 billions people in the whole world.More waiting on the sideline to purchase food than the billions waiting on the sideline to purchase prime Manhattan real estate.

I was referring to dollar amount of desired volume. For instance, 2-3 billion on sidelines would equate to a few thousand individual high-net worth individuals looking to purchase. For instance, between China a Brazil alone there are approximately 40 new millionaires created each day. Those people want a safe haven. Their choices are mostly limited to cities such as Hong Kong, Miami, and most typically Paris, London, and New York. This is having a very large effect on the NY RE Condo market.

The Gramercy/flatiron sub market has a 104 active units on the market for sale right now

http://urbandigs.com/chart.php?k=4fa60a00fbf6cd01f168be9e3580d74e

Real time sub market supply trend link above since 2008. Figured real data would be useful for this discussion

The sub market analysis says it all.

Thanks for the feedback!

I think clocktower is hotel:

http://ny.curbed.com/archives/2012/11/20/madison_avenue_clock_tower_hotel_will_open_in_2015.php

Buy flatiron! Sell apple!

What does real time data mean?

The urbandigs system parses rebny member exclusive listing status updates hourly and updates supply charts daily. As opposed to nhood supply stats that r published in lagging quarterly or monthly reports

Would you buy in the flatiron now if you had the money? Specifically new dev unit say 1br 1.5b or 2br 2ba.

Also, do you feel those prices will go up as discussed in other threads?

As far as I know and what I've heard, the One Madison Square West (Toy Building) is going to be priced at $2500+ per sq foot, and the One Madison Park is at $3000/sq ft and up given its insane views.

Crazy prices...! But seems like no shortage of Chinese billionaires in NYC these days apparently. So if you can buy a 2br/2ba in the Flatiron area at $2k/sq ft or less, it seems like a (relative) bargain! (Can't believe $2k/sq ft is the new "affordable" for prime Manhattan - what is the world coming to??)

Full disclosure: I'm looking to buy in this area as well (love this 'hood), but the prices are high, and seem to be going higher. May just have to hope and wait for the Chinese/Russians etc to go away first....

The area seems to have a lot of potential for growth. The WSJ published an article last night about the Nomad boom. I also heard 1 msw will be priced at above $2500. Prices at 241 Fifth Avenue definitely looks cheap compared to what these new developments are proposing. Also looking to buy in this neighborhood.

ANagin, not sure you much about this area.

"There is enough demand and then some. First you are talking about a few hundred units in a sub-market with tens and tens of thousands, as a percentage it is quite small."

There aren't tens of thousands of apartments in this area. Most of those blocks north and west of the park are not zoned residential. I think that is a mistake, but there are relatively few apartment buildings. The buildings that do exist are the old flower district lots on 6th ave... which are all rental, but for one.

This is actually an area that has benefitted from limited inventory, and this is not a small increase.

"There is estimated to be billions around the world waiting on the sidelines to purchase prime Manhattan real estate"

Really, we back to this again? You didn't notice that this line was used as the nyc market crashed...?

"The Gramercy/flatiron sub market has a 104 active units on the market for sale right now"

And that is a much larger area than the area around this building...

Even the "Flatiron" boundaries used by StreetEasy are broad. For example, I wouldn't consider a building on 15th Street near 6th Av to be in Flatiron. Same for 28th St near Lex.

To me, prime Flatiron is between 17th and 22nd, from 5th to Park. Most of the inventory is on Park Avenue South, but in my opinion the best buildings are on the cross streets, like these:

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/673914-coop-40-east-21st-street-flatiron-new-york
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/689890-condo-42-east-20th-street-flatiron-new-york
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/869342-condo-7-east-17th-street-flatiron-new-york

Buildings like those are finite in number and attract a certain kind of buyer; I wouldn't expect them to be impacted by new construction as they aren't going after the same market, even though they're in the same neighborhood. I'd be more worried if I owned a place on PAS.

Anyway, it's a great neighborhood, and I would have stayed if I could have found something with outdoor space.

Agreed. This building mentioned is a different spot, and the inventory factor is much bigger here... this is a large increase in apartments.

I think south of 23rd used to have the advantage, but eataly and the park changed everything...

>but eataly and the park changed everything...

Well, the park has always been there, so are you shilling for Eataly or somethingelse?
One famously-owned gourmet food market changes the long-term value of a whole area in prime Manhattan?

If you were actually from here, you'd realize the park wasn't always like that.
Just ask KISS...

> One famously-owned gourmet food market changes the long-term value of a whole area

Wow, you really don't know much about the area, do you?

It absolutely changed the value of the area. Asking rents jumped 15% around eataly...

That Park has been nice for many years. Why didn't the Shake Shack improve real estate values? Why not the various top chef restaurants in the buildings on the east side of the park? Why not Home Depot down the block on 23rd?

>Wow, you really don't know much about the area, do you?

Oh the insults, I can't take it any more.

>>
To me, prime Flatiron is between 17th and 22nd, from 5th to Park. <<

So, the Flatiron Building itself is not in "prime Flatiron"??

You people realize that "Flatiron" or "Flatiron District" is not a real neighborhood, right? The term came into use (by the real estate crime syndicate) as a neighborhood name nearly 100 years after the Flatiron building was built. Like yesterday, give or take.

Bedford Cheese Shop moving to Irving Street in Gramercy. http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/34980-time-to-sell-in-williamsburg

Prices to rise another 10% according to somewhereelse shill.

Sorry, Irving Place, I clearly know nothing about the area.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/34911-flatiron-inventory

> Why didn't the Shake Shack improve real estate values?

It did.

> Why not the various top chef restaurants in the buildings on the east side of the park?

Wrong side of the park. Not to mention, you seem to have been oblivious to the eyesores on the south south of the park for a quite a while. Did you just move here?

> Why not Home Depot down the block on 23rd?

If you can't tell Home Depot from Eataly, you need to get out of real estate... quickly.

And, once again, most of the 6th avenue inventory is just a few years old.

> I clearly know nothing about the area.

Sounds like it.

> Oh the insults, I can't take it any more.

If you find the truth insulting, I can't help you.

Again, if you are completely oblivious to the eataly effect on the area, then there isn't much else to say. You don't know much, if anything, about the area.

How about the 86th Street Shake Shack, did that improve values? It's also near a Best Buy, does that count?

i took note, long prior to eataly, of elsewhere's call that the hood appx from 23rd to 30th st, mad to 7th ave would catch on and outperform.

it did, eataly or not.

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i took note, long prior to eataly, of elsewhere's call that the hood appx from 23rd to 30th st, mad to 7th ave would catch on and outperform.

it did, eataly or not.

So no Magic Eataly?

The shake shack in DoBro is cited by brokers as firm evidence of the area's gentrification.

It expensive as hell but I have to admit, Eataly is pretty amazing.
Love the bronzino, the sardines, and that 3 fish sashimi appetizer.

err bronzinI not O

Fairway markets opening 2 blocks away will give people in the area more options.

>Fairway markets opening 2 blocks away will give people in the area more options.

Another 15+ increase in prices

Well... 10 msw is launching sale at or above 2500 psf...not bad for the area

It would appear that high-end properties in the flatiron/nomad area are going for $1700-800 per sq ft (non park facing) and anything park facing (Toy Building, One Madison Sq Park) is going for close to $3k per sq feet, at least if the asking prices are to be believed.

To the poster on Eataly, i'll say this much - I work in the lower Flatiron area, and saw a large increase in potential foreign investor/ buyers asking if they were apartments for sale in our (commercial) building after Eataly opened! Now whether that was the reason for prices increasing is probably mistaking correlation with causation, but I do think that Eataly was the last big step in the gentrification of this neighborhood. I remember 10 years ago when I was working down here, no one wanted to live here, and now, it's one of the most sought-after and priciest areas in the city.

In any event, whether you like Eataly or not, Madison Square Park is quite a little jewel of a park, and I don't begrudge those folks who can afford to buy prime property in Flatiron/Nomad.

Real Estate
+ Shake Shack +10%
+ Eataly + 15%
+ Whole Foods within 3 blocks + 20%
+ Home Depot + 5%
+ 11 Madison Park + 3%
+ Buckminsterfullerine light sculpture + 8%

Total increase in somewhereelse's Madison Square Park: wait, are these additive or do they magnify each other like the myth about drugs?

is that cleveR?

NOPE.

Glad you are back C0C0.

Agreed that those items increased value by 61%, hence the 2-3k psf. Glad we are all on the same page now.

"To the poster on Eataly, i'll say this much - I work in the lower Flatiron area, and saw a large increase in potential foreign investor/ buyers asking if they were apartments for sale in our (commercial) building after Eataly opened!"

And greenie still can't tell the difference between Eataly, Shake Shack, and Home Depot.

Time for a new business, greenie.

Magic Eataly. Add gourmet cheese to your condo and charge 20% more. It's magic! Want some truffle shavings with that?

>Time for a new business, greenie.

What is my current business?

> Magic Eataly. Add gourmet cheese to your condo and charge 20% more.
> It's magic! Want some truffle shavings with that?

Yes, magic is massive increases in foot traffic. Magic is 15% increases in retail rents surrounding. Magic is all the other storefronts filling up.

Magic!

> What is my current business?

shilling...

Magic Shilling! One new gourmet grocery will increase your prices 15%!