Rents in manhattan - any signs of softening?

One bedroom apts in doorman bldgs are be reduced.

yes, I am noticing that - I can see 2800 pm 1br rentals in some buildings. stonehenge has a lot of buildings available "NOW", definitely a sign of what is going on..

2BRs seem to be holding up for now.

rents seem to be softer in 88 and broadway area. I think we should be seeing cheap deals by the river, tons of rental buildings coming up - and there is no easy transportation options.

I don't know where your looking but in downtown (West Village, GV,Soho and Tribeca) they are definitely up from last year.

10019 (most expensive Manhattan zip) rents are flat to down at present with loads of free first month/we pay broker fee offers.

There was a recent report that indicated that overall they are going up. Some are going down. No drastic changes either way though. There's a link to the report on another thread.

Rents by me (Murray Hill) seem flattish from a year ago but down significantly (10%?) from the peak last August or so when the market seemed frenzied. I know of quite a few places that have been empty for 4+ months (although owners still get offended when you make a low offer??).

If anyone is in the market at $4000 - $5000 per month and is open to DUMBO, i got a no fee 2B/2B in full service building w/ one year of free parking for $4500 per month....

Our one-year old lease in 10019 is about to renew. We are offered the same rent for one or two years.

Here's our landlord's site: http://www.rosenyc.com/search_results.asp

I monitor it to see the number vacancies and price reductions.

I've mentioned this one before, FWIW. In two East Village buildings I'm familiar with where some RS apartments were converted to market rents after a new owner took over, the owner wound up cutting prices pretty much across the board. Not sure how out of whack the asking prices were, but the impression was that things had softened in between the time of the building purchase and the completion of the renovations.

Also, The Tishman-Speyer "luxury conversion" of Stuy Town/PCV seems to be a bit of a flop. There are somewhere between 5 and 7 buildings worth of empty apartments throughout the complex, and they are changing rules (dogs now allowed) and offering incentives to lure renters.

Here is the link to my 2B/2B for $4500 if anyone wants to drop a line:

http://realestate.nytimes.com/rentals/detail/253-NS803307

NNNRE I'll tkae it off your hands for 1200 per month.

I know my bldg in 10019 code is offering 1 month free rent on some apts, although the rent has slightly increased from last year (the net effective rent will still be cheaper). I think many of them are waiting to see if the late spring/early summer NYC entrants (college students) will help in reducing inventory.

NNRE, you're way overpriced. I have a 2-br 2-ba unit w/ a much better layout, same size, in Chelsea, 21st b/w 6th & 7th, for that price.

houser's closer to the truth. 2 grand at most.

check out nybits.com for comps, though none in Dumbo. 2-br Brooklyn Heights, Archstone, $3,815.

You're WAY overpriced.

okay i'll go up to 1800 per month that's my best offer . Let me know

actually I'm going to retract my offer. Who in the world wants to live in Dumbo. The name alone is an embarrassment.

houser, I probably don't like you (though I do share the mutual respect with JuiceMan, I don't know why) but I agree with you about that one.

Who the fuck wants to live under a bridge?

At $4,500 per month, for that layout?

WAAAAAY overpriced.

first of all saying "I probably don't like you" sounds ridiculous. However, a mentally disturbed person such as yourself having mutual respect for a sane person sounds even more ridiculous.

:0

houser- Are your commissions down YTD? Things must be getting tough. I feel sorry that all the rrealtors have to actually work in this market to make a living. I would suggest a new profession because it's going to get even worse.

dco, houser - like all the other bulls on these threads - can't produce a single cogent argument with real numbers to support current property prices, so he resorts to insults. He was probably the one shouting the loudest about how foreigners were going to come in and buy all of Manhattan's real estate, like the Japanese bought Rockefeller Center in the 80's.

And that worked out well for them, didn't it?

If the claim had been - as it was - that Wall Street bonuses where propping up the real estate market - and they were - why all of a sudden is it not true that since there are no more bonuses, that the market will collapse?

Because the foreigners are flooding the streets, pounding the pavements for "deals" on real estate that is falling in value, that when they take out a dollar-denominated mortgage and the dollar reverses course and rises, will cause them to lose their shirts.

Yes, Countrywide is going to make loans to the Irish to buy property in Manhattan that they'll never use, precisely because it's such a good idea to lend to people who don't live in a jurisdiction where US courts don't have control.

Stevejhx

Dollar asset and dollar loan means only FX risk is on downpayment for any foreigners.
Separate to this is investment risk in dollar terms.

And what is the significance of countrywide and the Irish ?

dco I am not a realtor or have anything at all to do with that business. In fact I have an extremely low opinion of mostly all RE agents. Like I said before you have your head so far up stevejhx ass you can look out through his throat.

no shamrock.

You're British, buy a $1,000 house when the pound is at 1 GPB = 2 USD. Let's say your monthly mortgage payments are 100 USD, or 50 GBP.

The dollar rises to 1 GBP = 1.5 USD. Your mortgage payments are now 66.66 GBP, because that's how many GBP's are now needed to buy 100 USD.

You put down 1,000 USD, which was worth 500 GBP. Your down payment is now worth 666.66 GBP.

You gain on the appreciation of the down payment as the dollar rises, but you lose on the expense side. Unfortunately, you can't buy food with the increasing equity, only with your income.

Countrywide and the Irish is the difficulty of non-resident foreigners to get financing. There's a very high risk of default, and if all their assets are abroad, recourse to them in case of default (which there is in New York) is very difficult.

The dollar rises to 1 GBP = 1.5 USD. Your mortgage payments are now 66.66 GBP, because that's how many GBP's are now needed to buy 100 USD.

- yes but your rental income is also in US Dollars so what the rent or the mortgage payment is worth in GBP is irrelvant as your expense is being paid using dollars.

- if if any rental voids then for a short (hopefully) period your repayments are more expensive but that is a short term extra cost

You put down 1,000 USD, which was worth 500 GBP. Your down payment is now worth 666.66 GBP.

- as I originally stated your FX risk is on your downpayment. Assuming you are not a flipper and are in it for the lomg term, the fluctuation in value in your downpayment is irrelevant

Unfortunately, you can't buy food with the increasing equity, only with your income.

- one would assume you have other income with which to live

Countrywide and the Irish is the difficulty of non-resident foreigners to get financing. There's a very high risk of default, and if all their assets are abroad, recourse to them in case of default (which there is in New York) is very difficult.

- this would be why a larger downpayment is required to reduce this risk for the lender

Oh and I am not British (hint : Shamrock)

Why if you live in Dublin would you buy an apartment to rent out in New York? Surely even London is closer.

Second, if you bought a place to rent out in Manhattan today, you would not be able to cover your carrying costs. Not even close. It currently costs twice as much to buy as to rent in Manhattan.

"the fluctuation in value in your downpayment is irrelevant."

Incorrect. The ultimate value of the down payment is the down payment on the day you bought the place less the value of the down payment on the day you sell it, neither of which can you hedge against.

The "foreigners to the rescue" mantra is untrue. That's what they said in Miami, and look where they are.

Oh, and if you buy a place and rent it out in NYC you are subject to UBT, NYC income tax, NYS income tax, federal income tax, and tax in your domicile.

Bye-bye profit!

It's a really silly proposition.

So your investment rationale is proximity to where where you live rather than say "location, location,location", the 3 well known property investment criteria, in suggesting an Irish person should buy in London rather than NYC as it is closer ?

Paying tax is a fact of life and there are things that can be done to reduce it and tax treaties minimise double taxation.

And the fluctuation in the downpayment is only relevant IF you decide to sell. Have you not seen the film The Field. Irish people never sell.

And based on your analysis there will be no profit if one buys in NYC so if no profit then no tax !

and before you comment, there are other criteria such as cashflow in looking at property investment.

and sometimes the rationale to invest is not based on numbers or cashflow but based on emotions or desires

houser- Unlike yourself I have made my own argument why I feel bearish on numerous posts. I have read countless opinions on these pages and value ALL educated analysis. You have not been able to support one theory or give one example why you feel that guys like Steve and I are "out of our minds" in your opinion. Houser if you have an educated argument please make it or just move on to a far less educated site.

PS I'm sorry you overpaid for your unit that is probably 300 square feet less than you thought. Don't worry you will break even in about 15-20 years. How does it feel losing hundreds of thousands in just 12 months? Don't be angry at Steve and I. We're not the one on the bottom of the contract.

Being an absentee landlord is generally not recommended as an investment strategy for most people. It has many headaches that most people are unaware of when getting into the situation. A lot of European purchasers in NYC are in for some surprises.

shamrock, I'm not saying that it can't and isn't done, but there are a lot less risky investments that yield far higher returns.

since I used to live in London and Madrid, I do know a thing or two about double-taxation. You are always taxed at the highest rate. If you make a profit on a NYC apartment and live in London, you have to pay UBT on the income, then NYC and NYS income tax, then federal income tax. Normally if you were an American living abroad you would be exempt from state and local taxes, but since the property is in NYC there's no way around it.

Then, the British tax residents on all their worldwide income. Yes, they offset each other to some degree, but if you want an investment property go local, where you can keep an eye on it.

BTW if you own an apartment in NYC, there have been cases where NYC has gone after Americans and foreigners residing abroad who own property here, claiming that they are really NY residents. NY tax law says something to the effect that if you own property in NY you're a resident of NY if you're here 183 days or more out of the year, or less if you have established "community ties" here. And those days count even if you spend 1 minute in the state, or are just driving through it, or even if you're in the airport changing planes.

They're going after Derek Jeeter who lives in FL but has a residence here, because he told the press that "He wants to stay in New York."

He meant the Yankees, now he's got a tax evasion case on his hands.

Beware.

Jeter settled the tax case a few weeks ago. Terms not disclosed, but NYS is known for being aggressive in going after NYS tax liability (even chasing retirees who live in Florida for their pensions earned in NYS).

how easy is it for the average person to get a morgage locally if they are a foreigner. i moved here a few years back and hold properties overseas (london). but i found it extremely difficult to borrow money from a local bank, even the bank i worked for.

thanks Steve, appreciate the comments. As for buying local so you can keep an eye, that does make sense but so does diversification

Perhaps $4500 is fair based on the price to buy that apartment, but realistically, given the location and the fact that it is a rental, I think the owner here has to take a price cut. Streeteasy shows numerous cuts for Dumbo. And the J building is a better building in numerous respects than Beacon. The Brooklyn prime market peaked before Manhattan, and this building unfortunately was at the Brooklyn peak.

Diversification makes sense shamrock: in stocks. Personally, I would never be a landlord, but if I were, I wouldn't stray more than a mile from where I live.

linuspauling, no one can rent a property at a price to "recover their investment." The mistake of most people here: real estate isn't valued at what you put into it, but rather what you get out of it, which is market rent.

Personally, I wouldn't pay 30% of what I pay in Chelsea to live in Dumbo. Since I pay $4500, that amounts to $1,350. Okay, I'll go up to $1,500.

But $4,500? PLEEZE!