NY real estate will crash

We probably shouldn't have purchased Alaska either. It not like we can drill for oil there anyway. What a waste of $7.2M. Some NY press regarding the purchase courtesy of Wiki. steve, was this your great grand pappy writing these doom and gloom statements?

"The New York World said that it was a "sucked orange." It contained nothing of value but furbearing animals, and these had been hunted until they were nearly extinct. Except for the Aleutian Islands and a narrow strip of land extending along the southern coast the country would be not worth taking as a gift.... Unless gold were found in the country much time would elapse before it would be blessed with Hoe printing presses, Methodist chapels and a metropolitan police. It was "a frozen wilderness," said the New York Tribune."

The purchase of Alaska was called "Seward's folly". That's the same secretary of state William Seward who got a park named after him in the Lower East Side.

Haha, nice stevejhx... I will reserve this thread as the 'true' thread... LOL

Manhattan real estate does NOT always go up morons!!

Hmmm.... Noah had an interesting post about the most recent auctions being of $75 billion not meeting the demand... that is truly a negative sign and confirmation that the credit crisis is still going to get worse.

Look out! As foreclosures keep setting records, so will repos and writedowns by Wall St. And guess what? Wall St does matter.

In case you haven't been yet, check out these sites:

http://nychousingbubble.blogspot.com/

http://housingpanic.blogspot.com/

http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html

Good stuff. Smart stuff.

Are there furbearing animals in Seward park? Can we drill for oil?

Rats, and Crisco.

MMAfia, do you really read those blogs? Reading that garbage was worse than being trapped in a tent with Nancy Pelosi and Beaker from the muppets. Are you for real?

JuiceMan, you watch the Muppets?

I have to agree - the articles are kind of dumb. Especially the analysis of housing as a "capital trap." For most people it is not.

I finally feel at home. Thank you Steve.

If interest rates spike, we will see a major correction in the market. Otherwise, I think we are in an inflationary environment with housing rising moderately.

JuiceMan
about 4 hours ago
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MMAfia, do you really read those blogs? Reading that garbage was worse than being trapped in a tent with Nancy Pelosi and Beaker from the muppets. Are you for real?

Juice, that was hysterical.

oh, ps, in case anyone is new, Steve is a bitter, lonely, mentally unstable liar. Check out this nonsense if you need reference to his past BS: http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/3410-real-estate-is-a-bad-investment

The more juicy one where he had a total mental breakdown over his boyfriends who didn't return his calls (among other things) has been deleted from Streeteasy. He's also sought to block his opponents: http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/3537-wheres-spunky

Pelosi and Beaker...brilliant!

Juice, of course I read those blogs- but I know, it's scary for you folks to read about the truth.

You can't handle the truth.

Neither could Kobe and Fakers last night.

Go CELTICS!

This is scary- I guess I'm not the only one worried.

RBS Warns of Stock, Credit Market Crash: Report
Topics:Stock Market | Economy (Global) | Corporate News
Companies:Royal Bank of Scotland GroupBy CNBC.com | 18 Jun 2008 | 06:32 AM ET Font size: The Royal Bank of Scotland issued a stark warning to investors Wednesday, stating global stock and credit markets could be on the verge of a fully-fledged crash as central banks have their hands tied by soaring inflation, the Telegraph reported.

"A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared," Bob Janjuah, credit strategist at RBS, told the UK daily paper.

The S&P 500 index is likely to slump by more than 300 points by September, according to a report from the bank’s research team, as "all the chickens come home to roost" from over-easy lending practices and other excesses of the global boom period, the report quoted by the Telegraph said.

"I do not think I can be much blunter. If you have to be in credit, focus on quality, short durations, non-cyclical defensive names. Cash is the key safe haven. This is about not losing your money, and not losing your job," Mr Janjuah told the paper.

RELATED LINKS
Time to Jump into Stock Bargains?
JPMorgan: We Got Bear on the Cheap
Sovereign Funds Want Barclays Stake?

RBS expects US stocks to continue to gain until early July before the effects of the oil spike start to drag on momentum, the Telegraph said.

Bob Janjuah was not immediately available for comment.

© 2008 CNBC.com

Oh boy MMAfia, you scare me. It's like reading the National Inquirer and believing aliens got steve pregnant.

That was a shellacking last night! Go Celts!

Juice, I come here for that "National Inquirer" fun factor.

=D

dco, the RBS guys have it all wrong. Financial disasters happen in October (1929, 1987, 1997). They call them 'October Surprises' in a gallows humor sort of way. I'd also like to point out that 'over-easy' lending is for eggs not banks.

But there was the Mexican Peso devaluation of 1994.

From today's Reuters wire "Meanwhile real estate investment losses led to a pretax loss of $277 million in Morgan Stanley's asset management division."

This is especially bad because Asset Management is supposed to be a strictly fee generating business and thus not be exposed to large losses. Somethings rotten here for sure.

It must suck to wake up every mornig and think that the sky is falling. It must suck to be so afraid of everything that you are paralized. It must suck to see no potential opportunity in the world.

It must suck to realize that big money is made is times of turmoil when the idiots are the most scared.

There has never been more upside and less competition in the NYC RE market then there is now.

It must suck to be you guys.

Well, I didn't officially close yet But, once I get paid handsomely over last years prices I'm going to join the crusade to spread negative info in the hopes of helping THE BIG CRASH...

Then we can all jump in and BUY BUY BUY....

Anyone wanna help set up a Real Estate Investment club NOW so, we're all ready to take advantage of this????? Anyone have experience in this?

I'm dead serious... Seems to be some incredibly smart people here in all aspects of real estate and there also seems to be people here that know exactly which way the market will go..

And I don't disagree!!!! - that's why I'm in the process of selling now at a price I only dreamed of just 2 years ago.... I think uncertainty with the Presidential election along with the economy will help us....

THEN, I want back in....

What fun is a CRASH when you sit there and don't take advantage of it....

LETS DO IT...... Talk is cheap.. I'm IN, I don't have crazy money but, I'd be willing to contribute and I do have contractor connections and I am handy and can paint....

THE BEST THREAD EVER - would be the thread that predicts THE CRASH - Follows the market, BUYS the best DEAL out there Post Crash - Maybe rents or then sells once "THE REBOUND" comes back, fix it up a little....

Depending on how many people we get we may be able to cherry pick a number of coops....

So:

1) WHO'S IN???
2) How much should we each contribute - Can we sell shares as a %?
3) What are the best target markets?
4) Do we need to set up a corporation?
5) For this plan is it better to target Coops or condos?
6) target BUY dates?

LETS DO IT - I'm getting excited ovah here!!!!!

If we pull this off Steve is KING!!!!

petrifitz - I love your posts and your experience...

Does this mean you don't want in?

You think we should set this thing up with more positive people?

Looking for all advice - Tks in advance...

I agree perfitz that people are missing the fact that all markets offer a way to make money. Istead of endlessly discussing "the crash" it would seem to make sense to discuss what people define "the crash" and how they intend to profit from it.

I'd be in reaper.

As a practical matter, a real estate crash isn't going to make housing any more affordable for the vast majority of people. The question of "will there be a crash" and "will person x be able to purchase the house of his/her dream after said crash" are only loosely coupled.

EXACTLY eah...

We need people like you!!!!!!

If people here are correct then....... ITS TIME TO MAKE MONEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I guess if THE CRASH comes you can sit around and make fun of people that lost money???

Is that fun though saying "I told ya so"....???

The real fun is raking in tons of money from being such a market knowing GENIUS!!!!

Lets set side differences and make this happen!!!!!

Man, this is going to be GOOD!!!!

We should have a HUGGGGGEEEE Party after we make our 1st killing? Rent a space out - Get a band and everything... I can get Blue Oyster Cult!!!!!

How much fun would we have at THAT party?

petrfitz- Perhaps I would agree that I'm afraid. I'm very afraid of buying in the market. Everyday brings a new disaster. I have worked very hard to accumulate my wealth (and no it's not millions, but I'm very comfortable) and don't plan on giving it away on some stupid theory that real estate only goes up,up,up,up,up,up,.... All eventually comes down and so will this NYC real estate market and when it does people are going to be very upset they got taken by "your going to be priced out" pitch.

If things go up then great. But no way in hell I'm I willing to bet on this reas estate market. I wouldn't touch property form Far Rockaway to Park Ave. The potential to the downside is right in front of your face. Buying in this market, this point in time is just stupid. If I were in contract for a new devlopment I would do everything in my power to get out. Your damn right I'm afraid and so should you.

ding ding ding. Thats exactly right 80sMan, and many on this board are oblivious to it.

dco - perhaps buying at ask is stupid at this time. but you'd be suprised how many deals there are in prime locations. i've posted many times that when i though tthe market was tooinflated i went uptown to washington heightd to find value. lately my property manager has indicated a few one off deals downtown that i might be interested in if they agree to my determined valuation.

"ding ding ding. Thats exactly right 80sMan, and many on this board are oblivious to it."

I don't get that statement - Who can afford "The house of their dreams"?

That's why it's a dream.... If errrr, WHEN the Crash comes there will be buying opportunities PERIOD. That's not a "loose Connection" at all, that's a money making opportunity of a lifetime!

And for the purpose of Our Club, we hardly care about the "vast majority"...

We're here to follow the market, recognize a dip and a buying opportunity and take advantage of it in a market in which "We" should know more than anyone else.

Speaking of dreams....

If this takes off and we get enough people - maybe we can buy.....

A BUILDING!!!!!!

So far it's just me and eah.....

One building I loosely looked at was at 3rd and 21st - it used to be a restaurant "Petes restaurant"...

I think that area is one of the best areas in NYC and growing like crazy - It has 3 apartments up top and Air rights.. I think it's on the Prudential site for about 5 Million... I'll look for it.

Buying the building isn't "huge" money but, I can only imagine the construction costs building above it.

"It must suck to be you guys."

BWAAAAA!!!! But... but... MY dad has a bigger **** than your dad so there!!!

LMAO you fifth grader you...

hilarious, mafia complaining about fifth graders, is this the person who posted "Manhattan real estate does NOT always go up morons!!" above?

eah, I agree and I'm in.

Hey- What are you guys doing, this is a bear thread.

How are we not bearish? We're discussing oppportunity when we feel the market has dropped enough?
Does this mean by your definition "bear" has to be hysterical and negative?

eah- I'm only busting chops. All are welcome and I also agree that this downturn will result in many opportunities, just that we have a ways to go for me to fell even comfortable enough to consider.

dco, this is what I've been trying to get you to understand all along. What is valuable are facts and numbers that you can bet on. I don't care if the information is bull or bear only that it is accurate. Good information = $$$

for, say, prime west village..what would you cosider a corrected price/sq ft?

JM- I understand exactly the benefits. I never said that you will never make money in real estate. I have been trying to warn people the this market is and will continue to fall much further. I also believe that you can call a bottom in the housing market. Perhaps you can't put an exact time or day, but real estate is not a liquid asset and there is no need to react in an instance like the stock market.

"I have been trying to warn people the this market is and will continue to fall much further."

DCO... I know it's dependent on WHERE - But, shouldn't your statement read "the market may fall"... I haven't seen a Fall at all YET... at worst I see less appreciation %...

We're talking Manhattan right? Maybe you're talking about real high end or new developments? Harlem? You can' tbe talking general terms about the NYC market can you?

As I've said, I almost feel like I listed my Coop too low it sold so fast but, at a higher price than I thought it would compared to comps and last years pricing... This is in Gramercy btw.
.
.
.

Thanks for the warnings - I'm extremely excited about a potential CRASH at this point.

It's sort of amazing that people think crashes are good things. After the 1929 crash the stock market didn't return to the pre-crash levels until after WWII. A real estate/market crash would be a disaster for NYC. All kinds of budget items are tied to real estate and payroll taxes. Friends and loved ones would be broke and/or homeless.

As for purchasing power after a crash: in 1985 townhouses on Washington Square Park were selling for $200,000. The median family income in Manhattan was about $20,000. A factor of 10. Today, Manhattan median family income is $60,000. Do you think you'll see those same townhouses selling at $600,000? A 50% drop from last sale still keeps those townhouses above $2,000,000.

A market crash is not a time machine that lets you go back to 1985 with 2008 dollars.

Wow you guys are so brilliant to call for softening in a real estate market that has been going up for the last 10 years. Man you guys are visionaries.

Too bad you have no idea how to make money in today's world!

Losers, pussies, naysayers. You will get no where. Enjoy it!

No one seriously said a crash is a Good thinf for all...

People or saying that IF it happens it COULD be a great opportunity for some.....

Everyone is in a different boat - I'm in the process of selling... I'll hold a cash position and IF there's an opportunity I'll jump back in...

And I'm serious about some sort of way for a bunch of us to pool or money, resources and brain power... Cuz IF there is a major dip in NYC I'll bet the farm that it comes back.

so Reaper - can you tell me how if the real estate market crashes your "money" will notbe effected? Will the stock market not plunge? Will people not lose their jobs? Will financing not become more expensive?

I find it hilarious that all these market timers like Steve dont consider that RE is tied into all forms of wealth. Timers think that the world around them will collapse and their world will be the same as will their net worth.

True petrfitz.....

Got any suggestions??? Are you buying??

"I find it hilarious that all these market timers like Steve dont [sic] consider that RE is tied into all forms of wealth. Timers think that the world around them will collapse and their world will be the same as will their net worth"

So it's better to buy in this market? Putting your DP into a "safe" investment and waiting sounds like a better solution than buying right now to me. If everything does go to shit and you lose your job at least you didn't burn all your savings on the down payment, oh yeah and you would be tied into one of the most (the most?) illiquid 'investments' possible.

Nobody likes to lose their job, value in their assets or any of the negative things that crop up in a down market. That is life though, and markets go down after they come up, unless you know something about economics that everyone else doesn't.....

TheFed - if the shit does hit the fan very badly, and banks or the govt had to decide who to help out and who not to, whom do you think that they would choose to work with - the owner class or the renter class?

Whom got the huge FEMA bail outs in Katrina? Homeowners or the Renters?

Wake up this is a class conscious society. Those who dont own, dont matter to the govt and the banks.

Got luck holding onto nothing when the shitgoes down

reaper - I am buying. I am in the midst of a huge 1031 roll over. I am looking at buying 2-3 brownstones in prime brooklyn - in cash.

Nice - We considered a 1031... The forced timing of the 1031 hurt us in the past and we jumped into a bad deal in Orlando a few years back....

If I found something ASAP I'd roll it over but, we're getting the tax exemption on this one anyway so, the 1031 advantages might not be worth it right now...

I could be totally wrong though....

Best of luck!!!

If the shit hits the fan I'm moving south!!!!

; )

"if the shit does hit the fan very badly, and banks or the govt had to decide who to help out and who not to, whom do you think that they would choose to work with - the owner class or the renter class?" Pretty sure you were fishing for "the owner class" on this one. And you're probably right, they probably would help the owners. That makes sense though since they would be the ones stuck in a depreciating "asset". The "renter class" wouldn't have such problems.

"Whom got the huge FEMA bail outs in Katrina? Homeowners or the Renters?" You tell me, since you clearly have the answer and the data to back it up.

"Wake up this is a class conscious society. Those who dont [sic] own, dont [sic] matter to the govt and the banks." I'm pretty sure the banks do care about renters. They all seem pretty interested in rental income when they loan on rental properties. They sure do care about buyers as they are the ones they gave all the bad loans to. Wouldn't you care if you loaned someone money and the reality set in that you might lose money on that deal. I know I would be watching it closely. Not sure exactly what you are postulating about the government, I'll be anxious for the data....

petrfitz, all kidding aside, when you post things like:

"Losers, pussies, naysayers. You will get no where. Enjoy it!"

and you claim to be upper echelon society with an ex-model/talent wife?

please... give me a break. leave that kind of gutter talk in the gutter. don't bring it here. too bad you can't buy class with all that 'supposed' $millions you own.

Hmm - so having a screen name that includes a criminal group known for extortion, prostitutiona nd murder is class?

Go back to be a naysayer scared little man and stop trying to appear like you have class.

The Fed - basically if your assumption is that we are in for heaps of trouble everywhere, you dont want to be left without any assets. And yes a house that is underwater in terms of value is actually an asset. A lease is not an asset.

A house underwater is more of an asset than stock with no value.

Petrfitz: a mortgage is a debt not an asset. You don't own your home (refer to your amortization schedule for details). You have title to it which allows you to live in it.

Getting back to crash scenario analysis: if there's a crash it will hurt the people at the bottom first, the way it always happens. Short term investors will walk away from their underwater properties leaving renters without a landlord. Maybe some condos will become insolvent. All of this would be very bad for anyone working, living or visiting NYC.

Wow how things have change ina year!!!!

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/135586-coop-530-east-86th-street-yorkville-new-york

Prices in Manhattan have started to fall. Look at all the price reductions people.

"Hmm - so having a screen name that includes a criminal group known for extortion, prostitutiona nd murder is class?"

LOL, what loser. MMAfia is short for MonkeyMafia which is a song oh, enlightened one. Take that gutter vulgar crass back home where it came from.

Cursing once in a while is one thing- repeated behavior is indicative of your vulgarity. But I'm sure your trophy ex-model heiress wife you so proudly trumpeted about here in the past just loves it.

To quote Magneto when he sees the power of a Class 5 mutant, "What have I done?"

To quote Magneto when he sees the power of a Class 5 mutant, "What have I done?"

Just make sure you're at the Party when make our first killing after the recovery from THE CRASH.

;P

reaper, there won't be a crash until you buy. By you, I mean the market bears. The very fact that people are waiting for a crash gives the sellers hope that if they hold out long enough a doubting Thomas buyer will give in and meet their price. A crash is not a situation where buyers are looking for lower prices, a crash is when there are no more buyers in the market (move out of the city, go bankrupt, can't get financing, have already made a purchase). What you are looking for, reaper, is a dip. Markets go up and markets go down. Every so often them boom and sometimes they bust.

80sMan: very well put.

Some random comments from earlier this month on the Craigslist board, regarding rentals:

==> 8 years in the biz...This has been my worst < apartmentsvengali > 06/04 17:40:22

No fee 2 bedroom in the East 90's sat for a month...Unheard of in previous years. Lots of listings seems to me, and very few new grads flocking like last 5 years...

http://newyork.craigslist.org/forums/?ID=92891562

==> Was that the slowest weekend ever? < hkman > 06/02 05:08:05

Seems much slower and softer than last year. The usual college invasion is just not heppening. I'm kind of enjoying it but if I was supporting a family would be a bit freaked out right now. Not just in HK but my stuff in EV, UES and Chelsea is just sitting there, all priced 10% less than last year and all No Fee. ...

==> saw a lot of move outs yesterday on the LES. < icurok > 06/02 05:28:50

But I didn't see too many move ins. I think the Bank of Mom and Dad may be feeling the pinch this year.
?ID=92632789

==> Less than 2 weeks < xiaolinpanda > 06/02 06:00:54

We had a vacancy last month - a co-op in Flushing. Had it rented back out in less than 2 weeks.

?ID=92633516

NY times: NY unemployment jumps. Slow and steady. Real estate is not liquid and takes time to fall. This is just another indication on how things are going to worse before it gets better. And yes you can call a bottom in real estate much easier than stocks.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/20/nyregion/20jobless.html?ref=nyregion

Good article dco. Thanks for the link. The tipping point is near.
Most sellers and brokers are living in a dream. There are so many
absurdly priced places still on the market you wonder if people need
to sell or are just fishing. This denial phase is passing. By August
it will start to sink in. By October prices will be falling.
By next Spring when there is no buying frenzy the last hold-outs will
give in and we will see some real adjustment in the NY real estate market.
This, I believe, will continue for 2-3 years before the correction will reverse.
So, no I don't see a crash coming but I do see prices coming down from these highs.
They already are. Oh, and no, I have no data to back any of this up.

kgg- I have all the data needed and no where enough time to post it all.

I agree, kgg--

Case in point: we had an accepted offer on a co-op, contracts were out, BUT--we discovered the building's financials were somewhat questionable. So, we explained we no longer felt comfortable with our original offer (which was lower than their overly-ambitious asking price, but still on the high end of fair), and lowered it, making it clear we still wanted to do the deal and were ready to sign and hand over checks as soon as the seller wanted.

Seller accepted the lower offer, but only on the condition that we do a non-contingent deal. Gave us an ultimatum--sign by x day, non-contin, or take a hike. So, we took a hike. Why shoulder that kind of risk?

So now the idiots have just lowered their ask (to just below our original offer) and scheduled an open house. Fools--they could have had checks in hand days ago, and been well on their way to closing. Instead, they grandstanded with us about how they had 'several' other offers and didn't need to do business with us unless it was on their terms, and now they're clearly back at square one.

So, yeah--I think sellers and their listing brokers may just be living in a dream these days.

Perfitz says: if the shit does hit the fan very badly, and banks or the govt had to decide who to help out and who not to, whom do you think that they would choose to work with - the owner class or the renter class ..

ha ha - so you admit that at this point, the bulls are banking on govt bail outs to support their arguments? :-)

re: kgg

I think you're generally on track, but I would suggest that the velocity of the NY real estate market is such that, when you have a turnaround, it's not necessarily a slow build in the economy, but can be more of a big jump within a year or so. Wall Street, for example, when things start looking good, firms tend to start hiring all at the same time, in lock-step. So, whenever the next season for new summer grads comes along, all of a sudden there's a lot more people vying for the available stock (I guess by default I'm talking rentals in that case, but maybe the same applies to people accepting out of town transfers into NY who may be buying), and prices seem to turn around and head upward pretty fast. In other words, it comes sort of in annual, seasonal waves.

That all being said, it certainly seems like there should be a tipping point (as you said) when, simultaneously, a bunch of expected demand doesn't materialize, and prices head down fairly precipitously. Maybe we're on the verge of that now. Maybe the question, then, is, "hard landing or soft landing?" And if hard, how hard?

"the owner class or the renter class."

The petty bourgeoisie.

Real estate in NYC has been creeping up since the mid-nineties and then really accelerated 2002-2006.
This is over a decade of steady increases. In my opinion, that will not be undone in a year or two.
Ultimately the economy and a shift in lending will bring it back some.

For example, in 2004-2005 the bank would have lent my wife and I nearly $1 million for a mortgage.
Even though it didn't make sense to carry that much debt. Today, we might get approved for a $600,000 mortgage. And not as cheaply as we would have then. So, that means all over this city people like us who could have bought a $1.2-1.5 million apt, depending on their down payment, just a few years ago can now afford an $800,000-1.1 million apt, just to use our price point for the sake of argument. This shift and the end of the bull market in U.S. real estate has also given people time to come to their senses and realize that taking on housing costs that total 40% of their income doesn't add up. This can only mean one thing, without a real increase in wages, prices must come down to meet the pool of buyers.

kgg, why are you trying to talk sense on this board? "Without a real increase in wages"? Come on. Who needs that?

You're ruining our fun.

As I am stuck in the city this weekend, I will now be going to Central Park to loll in the sunshine, listen to some music, eat some cake, sip some wine and hopefully throw some frisbee on the longest day of the year. You should too.

I am on Fire Island enjoying the wonderful day, but I am forced to work on a time-sensitive project. Such is the plight of the self-employed.

Nice - just back from Ocean beach!!!

It's lovely here. Petrfitz is in the Hamptons - I saw his chauffeur-driven amphibious Prius sail by my window.

Perfitz = $25,000 a year rookie cop

kgg, nice use of almost examples.

in 2004-2005 the bank would have lent my wife and I nearly $1 million for a mortgage.

Today, we might get approved for a $600,000 mortgage.

Thanks Cletus.

By the way, do they seem almost accurate?

dco: "I also believe that you can call a bottom in the housing market."

Then it should also be just as easy to call a top - but then why were people were calling tops all thru 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007?

Cletus, shame on you. Nice name though.

Calling out kgg for reinforcing his points with non-fact... don't you know that fact doesn't matter here? kgg probably asked someone like Juiceman (i.e. bullish) on Streeteasy in 2005 what he could get on a mortgage and then recently asked dco (i.e. bearish) what he could get on a mortgage and uses those two single "data" points to tell the rest of the world where NYC real estate is going.

But thanks for pointing out his sleight of hand - he never said he actually applied for a mortgage or bought a property. If these "examples" get more egregious, we'll call him Steve.

definition of "egregious" = vverain doesn't like it.

Totally fair calling me out. I wasn't trying to be manipulative. Just trying to understand how lending standards will affect the individual and ultimately the re market as a whole in the city.

We were pre-approved for a mortgage last fall for 850,000. A good friend with similar household income was offered a million dollar mortgage in 2005. I'll let you know the results next time I talk to the bank.
Perhaps somebody else on this board can offer up some "anecdotes" that are less egregious. If what I suppose is true, however, I still stand by my "theory." Or fantasy if you prefer.

kgg- I understood what you were saying and so did everyone else. No harm no foul. Also I'm very curious how you make out with the mortgage offer, please keep us posted.

"Then it should also be just as easy to call a top - but then why were people were calling tops all thru 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007?"

The market has already peaked. The statistics don't show it because of all the high end sales.

People can't pick tops or bottoms. lol

> People can't pick tops or bottoms. lol

Look up the definition of "bubble".