Market shifting to buyer's market

About 3 or 4 months ago I called a peak, and a 15-20% decline in prices over the next 3 years.

For what our little perspective is worth, no much yet. We have 4 offers out and all have asked for highest and best to be submitted. I saw a little shift towards buyers in August, seems it was seasonality at play. Seems that UrbanDigs August data showed a slowdown v 8/2014. There certainly are plenty of macro headwinds, however owning NYC real estate continues to be a popular activity.

Keith Burkhardt
The Burkhardt Group

The sales numbers coming in from deals signed 3-5 months ago (back in march-apr-may-june), which is typically our strongest part of the calendar year, are at record levels. Today's market seems a notch or two less frothy than that period of time -- especially the higher end. The low end price points have no supply so that segment is still a bit nutty. Overall, it simply feels that sellers lost a bit of a leverage but they still have the advantage - thank recent global/market events for that. I just dont see how we beat these #s that are coming in right now over the next few quarters. The only savior may be new dev closings, but doubt that is enough to bolster the #s in near term future. I would expect slightly lower numbers in q4-2015 and q1-2016..lets see how it plays out

"The low end price points have no supply so that segment is still a bit nutty"

As indicated by UD there is absolutely nothing in the low end studios/one bedroom(condos). Nothing. All new development has been high end luxury condos because as we all have read over and over that land is extremely expensive and the numbers only work for high end development. No supply is driving up prices. Try finding a studio condo for under 600k. Pretty difficult. There is like half the supply of last year which was already very low to begin with.

flutistic
what European crisis?
declaration that New York City is the #1 most expensive place in the world to live - that adds to the prestige
increased inventory (especially condos) is benefiting buyers - only on very high end if at all
stock market volatility - when equity markets go up people keep feeding money into it. When equity markets go down people sell and invest elsewhere(guess where) because "they've had enough!" lol

an ode to alanhart go stevie, go stevie shishboombahh!!

wow rangersfan...still renting huh? even after that once in a lifetime credit crisis panic selling. Still afraid to make a move. Now look at you. Mom and Dad are not proud.

Rangers fan, you don't actually go to the games do you? You get beat up there with your PomPom talk?

When the financial crisis hit it was mainly because of the subprime market lending . Since the crisis there is no subprime loans in existence, no no income verification loans; credit is still very tight. In short leverage is very different today. That may be one reason that the rental market is so tight.

I don't see any peak in the market, maybe not even in the luxury market. I've read that the Chinese now more than ever are looking to buy here.

Ellen Silvermam
E. S. Funding Co.
Licensed Mortgafe Broker since 1990
Licensed Real Estate Broker since 1987
NMLS #60631

Noah:

1. we could be heading towards the worst depression in world history because of the
excessive capacity and supply of most basic commodities and manufactured goods

2. the biggest headwind in today's economy is not credit but robot and -software driven
job displacement which could eliminate close to or half of America's jobs within the
next 5-10 years, with unprecedented demand destruction and secondary effects

3. but NYC remains a playground for the wealthy, with lots of attractive and easy to
bed sex partners, illegal drugs, and eating and entertainment options

4. in the short-run real estate in desirable NYC neighborhoods will be completely
or partially insulated by the large number of newly wealthy people produced by
today's tech revolution

.5. I think NYC markets have temporarily paused because of stock market and
macroeconomic conditions, but it is still too early to call in the fire department

Actually there very recently was a piece in which a couple of developers were talking about a potential glut in the high end market, and how they thought we had reached, or were about to reach, over saturation in the high-end new development area.

stevie I am not a renter, your continual blind cheerleading is an old and tiresome act. market is indeed getting frothy yet there you are trying to hike your skirt up a few more inches to detract from reality. and fieldchester, gothamsboro, and your twenty five other nom de plumes, I have been to more games then you have screen names so you know its been a lot. carry on.

You like getting beat up?

hahahaha, fieldy. you speak very bravely from behind a keyboard. my sense is you were pounded regularly as a kid or was that weirdo outcast that everyone stayed away from at recess. so your provocations are spineless and empty.

everyone has their own image of me, I enjoy that.

You would not enjoy eating my image of you

When viewed from a global investment level NYC RE is cheap as compared to similar cities internationally. Foreign money is earmarked for luxury properties which show the best return on investment for the developer. Example of this would be 20 East End Avenue. The building, still in construction, has a very high proportion of it's residences already in contract. The economic engine would have to slow considerably before we see any considerable depression in price. Old story, don't go by ask, measure by the close. If you keep calling the top of the market eventually you will be correct.

Agreed, asking price can be misleading, closing price is the thing.

rangersfan....here's something I think everyone would welcome. Why don't u just dispute my facts instead of resorting to silly name calling? I think your chearleading comment is old and tiresome. Just taking up space in an otherwise informative thread. So give us some of your facts. What's your arguments big guy? What do u got?.......

Oooh, calling a hockey fan, "big guy", now that ought to get him riled up.