Decline in Overseas Property Investment by Chinese

Unclear to me whether this just impacts Chinese companies or whether it would also impact individual investors buying properties. I think the major impact would come if they were encouraged by the Chinese government to actually divest rather than to simply slow/cease continued purchases.

I know there is some talk of forcing Anbang to divest from Waldorf project. I don't know exactly where this stands, though.

http://fortune.com/2017/07/31/china-anbang-waldorf-foreign-assets/

\https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-31/china-is-said-to-ask-waldorf-owner-anbang-to-sell-assets-abroad

30 - while a divestiture of the Waldorf is certainly interesting news, from the standpoint of assessing the impact on residential real estate, I think the more interesting question is whether Chinese individuals are barred from buying new properties and/or are required to divest properties - I think that would have a profound impact on the value of a huge section of the residential real estate market.

From my personal standpoint, unless I see a really perfect deal, I'm not going to buy anything for a while until I see how some of these things shake out, and I think that a large portion of my peer group views things similarly.

My instincts, for what they are worth, is that Chinese investors will find ways to transfer funds outside of China. I think many already have and are still looking to invest fully. I think the Chinese government looked the other way for years rationalizing that overseas Chinese investors will eventually repatriate their profits back to China. Its very interesting to see what is happening with Anbang, HNA and other Chinese multinationals. I wonder to what extent these companies are being investigated. Bottom line is that China can do whatever they want to control the overseas investment activities of Chinese companies and citizens but they will be careful not to crash the market. Impact on New York City could be huge especially if investors begin to feel the market has peaked and that it may be time to exit in any case.

I remember back in the 1980's when Japanese investors were doing the same thing in the NY market. There were articles decrying selling our landmarks like Rockefeller Center to Japanese investors. Then the market crashed.

How about the Waldorf Astoria in today's setting? Same thing going on?

While I do think there will be a great financial crisis in China by 2019 (and so does Goldman), it'll be really hard to predict as people have been talking about the bubble popping for over 2 decades..

The wealthier and more connected Chinese will always have a way to get their money out. It's the regular folks who are having issues with capital controls.

The Chinese government has ways to control the housing bubble in China so it does not burst. And buyers are not under as much pressure to sell due to low carrying costs. But if there is ever a need to divest, watch out as it could get real ugly in China. As for the US, similar circumstances as many/most Chinese buyers paid all cash so unless there is pressure to sell, they might decide ride out a recession. Impact on market is different, however, as prices will spiral downward either way.

If I am not mistaken 30yrs, Japanese experience in NYC was a little different as buyers were thinking long-term and using lots of low-cost leverage, then forced to sell.

JR1, rich Chinese can always find ways to get funds out of China but the problem is that the costs of doing these exchanges will be much higher as government-owned Chinese banks will not be able to facilitate. Chinese multinationals will have the easiest time as they already have funds overseas, have low-cost financing sources and political connections.

Does anyone know if Waldorf condo conversion is still a go?