Firmer Luxury Rental Prices

Assuming arguendo they are correct I think this is more evidence that the sales market is in for more pain because to me it indicates that despite anecdotes from brokers about more traffic,etc this points to demand for sales being down. Couple that with supply being up (I don't think there are any reports disputing that) the only result of "increased supply plus decreased demand" can be "prices go down."

Every renter is short a home.

I believe in the slightly modified version: “every well-off renter is short a home”.

At current prices are there any not well off buyers?

Any one renting luxury is short and likely will buy in an year or two.

What are you basing that on?

That is the typical length of a real luxury rental in 2 bedrooms and up.

BTW using my usual yardstick of Stuyvesant Town/Peter Cooper Village:
There are 166 units available which I think is slightly on the high side for this time of year and prices are about the same as they were back in July.

Definition of luxury has changed and Stuy town, which is good utility rentals rather than luxury, free market renters are moving to Brooklyn.

I don't disagree with that statement, but I still find it's an excellent barometer for the Manhattan rental market.

FYI using my usual barometer of Peter Cooper Village/Stuyvesant Town, essentially this unit was $200 more July 2018.

https://www.stuytown.com/apartments-for-rent/1-bedrooms/apt/370-first-avenue/09-c

https://therealdeal.com/2020/06/11/manhattan-rental-vacancy-rate-is-highest-in-14-years/

Manhattan rental vacancy is highest in 14 years

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/11/manhattans-empty-apartments-new-leases-plunge-62percent-in-may.html

You figure this’ll just get worse and worse. On the supply side, you figure pied a terre owners who were in NYC infrequently are on the margins shifting to never and therefore would rather get some income. On the demand side, it’s really easy to just leave the city when your lease runs out. You may not have a job, or your job may be effectively work-from-home for the foreseeable future.

Add to that all the college kids that won't be back for fall/winter this year.

And the college grads who won't be showing up for their new jobs.

This isn't NYC specific, but I've heard that most colleges will be forced to re-open this Fall, simply because they can't afford not to. Of course, states still have to allow them to do that, and that still leaves the question of how many students will feel comfortable enough to come back. But the new hire class showing up in some greatly reduced form is virtually a certainty at this point. You got to imagine most companies scaled back their recruiting in the Spring and/or some are going to be revoking offers because of their poor financials.

60 Minutes had a segment on William & Mary tonight. One thing they noted was the financial aspect of students being able to return (and they interviewed one who said she can't return in the Fall solely due to financial burden). I think in NYC that might have an oversized impact on those not offering some sort of University housing and forcing students into market rate rentals. Especially since most students in NYC end up living packed many per housing unit.

I think doing a corona gap year will be seen as acceptable to future employers.

Peter Cooper Village/Stuyvesant Town had their second miracle this month:
1) After rising to a staggering 480 units available on the website (last year at this time a bit over 100) on June 3rd, the next day they removed the counter and (by manual count) the count dropped to 236.
2) After the count had fairly steadily crept back up to 303 yesterday, June 15, today it dropped to 116.

Since it seems they have been leasing between zero and a handful each day for the last 3 months, what are the chances they actually rented 244 one day and 189 a couple of weeks later sans some announcement of some major institutional deal (which almost assuredly would have been crowded about in a press release and seen in The Real Deal)?

@30: about 0%? also who would rent 200 apartments? JPM for its summer analyst class that's working from home?