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Started by Dickens
over 5 years ago
Posts: 104
Member since: Mar 2014
Discussion about 295 Greenwich Street #3O
I suppose this studio can put to the test the condition of the real estate market. Can a renovation that is mostly plywood and paint add 500K to the value of an apartment less than a year after purchase?
Response by front_porch
over 5 years ago
Posts: 5316
Member since: Mar 2008

It's also on the market for rent.

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Response by 300_mercer
over 5 years ago
Posts: 10570
Member since: Feb 2007

While the Reno is much more than plywood and paint (at least 175k), price makes no sense per sq ft.

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Response by 300_mercer
over 5 years ago
Posts: 10570
Member since: Feb 2007

These buildings trade at $1500-1800 per sq ft max for renovated apartments. Smaller apartments at a premium to larger apartments.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 5 years ago
Posts: 9878
Member since: Mar 2009

It's a tell that broker didn't list square footage.

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Response by AnonMan2002
over 5 years ago
Posts: 165
Member since: Feb 2009

picking a few comps in buildings next to it to make sure the seller & broker are priced insanely high:

ACTIVE LISTINGS
Address Price Unit # Time On Market Property Type Beds Baths Rooms Size (ft²) $ per ft² Monthly Costs Tax Abatement?
295 Greenwich Street $640,000 #3M 3 days Condo 0 1 2 465 $1,376 $3.03 / ft² -
303 Greenwich Street $995,000 #5F 18 days Condo 1 1 3 650 $1,530 $2.82 / ft² -
275 Greenwich Street $1,045,000 #9J 118 days Condo 1 1 3 733 $1,425 $2.67 / ft² -
303 Greenwich Street $1,099,000 #9B 103 days Condo 1 1 3 820 $1,340 $3.62 / ft² -
295 Greenwich Street $1,200,000 #3O 110 days Condo 0 1 1 0 $0 - -

RECORDED SALES IN THE LAST 365 DAYS

Address Listing Price Unit # Time On Market Property Type Beds Baths Rooms Size (ft²) $ per ft² Monthly Costs Closed Price Closed Date Tax Abatement?
275 Greenwich Street - #5PS - Condo 10 1 - 422 $1,540 - $650,000 11/25/2019 -
295 Greenwich Street - #3ON - Condo 0 - - 464 $1,454 - $675,000 08/01/2019 -
295 Greenwich Street - #11MN - Condo 0 - - 0 $0 - $775,000 07/16/2019 -
275 Greenwich Street - #10CS - Condo 0 - - 900 $927 - $835,000 01/08/2020 -
275 Greenwich Street $1,050,000 #4DS 52 days Condo 1 1 3 0 $0 - $930,000 12/11/2019 -
275 Greenwich Street - #8DS - Condo 0 - - 709 $1,322 - $937,500 08/30/2019 -
275 Greenwich Street - #11DS - Condo 0 - - 709 $1,361 - $965,000 09/19/2019 -
275 Greenwich Street $1,045,000 #3FS 212 days Condo 1 1 4 0 $0 - $975,000 02/07/2020 -
295 Greenwich Street - #4KN - Condo 0 - - 669 $1,472 - $985,000 02/25/2020 -

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Response by stache
over 5 years ago
Posts: 1298
Member since: Jun 2017

I like this building and location but view of nothing. Monthlies are low for condo.

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Response by 300_mercer
over 5 years ago
Posts: 10570
Member since: Feb 2007

There is no view in most apartments but the building on the other side of the street with Whole Foods is set back from the street a lot.

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Response by KeithBurkhardt
over 5 years ago
Posts: 2986
Member since: Aug 2008

From Fritz Frigan:

And in the end, I am sharing with you again the analysis of 105 offers you sent or received in the period from March 22 to May 8:

1. The average difference between ALL offer prices and ALL ask prices was 13.79%. (105 replies)
2. The average difference between offer and ask in deals that were ACCEPTED was 6.78% (40 replies)
3. The average difference between offer and ask in deals that were REJECTED was 18.10% (65 replies)

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Response by Dickens
over 5 years ago
Posts: 104
Member since: Mar 2014

I saw this apartment in 2019 - which is why my jaw dropped looking at the current price. It’s a 12x20 room plus the kitchenette and the foyer - all in all under 500 sq. ft.

Comparing to the upgraded look, it just wasn’t all that different, the positioning of everything is the same, floors are the same. The radiator covers in the living room are new, the kitchen and bathroom finishes new, but average. Also, who doesn’t tile bathroom walls when doing a gut reno with the intent to sell at $1m+ (unless it’s a retro look). And as a regular cook, I would hate a powerful range without a backsplash, positioned under a low, light colored cabinet (hopefully, there’s a hooded vent in there). Does a renovation like this really cost 175k now? The last apartment I renovated was several years ago in Brooklyn, hard to believe how prices climbed.

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Response by 300_mercer
over 5 years ago
Posts: 10570
Member since: Feb 2007

Dickens, I looked at the old pictures. I had mistakenly assumed that all the reno was recent without looking at the old pictures. Clearly not $175k. More importantly, does not matter what they spent. It is a 464 sq ft studio. Most generous valuation is $1800 per sq ft for this building. Realistically 1500 per sq ft or a bit more given the dearth of studios in that area if everything is in great shape.

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Response by 300_mercer
over 5 years ago
Posts: 10570
Member since: Feb 2007

$700-750k or may be a bit more. It was never higher.

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Response by bramstar
over 5 years ago
Posts: 1909
Member since: May 2008

The reno may have 'bells and whistles' but it is, unfortunately, cheesy looking and stale. Good luck finding a buyer who will want to pay top dollar for that tired aesthetic.

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Response by AnonMan2002
over 5 years ago
Posts: 165
Member since: Feb 2009

offer them $650k and see if they bite?

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Response by thoth
over 5 years ago
Posts: 243
Member since: May 2008

Looking at broader market indicators like Urban Digs's metrics indicates the broader market is unsurprisingly in a downturn. All numbers are % change YoY, 1st 2 are as of yesterday, the rest are as of March

Market pulse: -17.9%
Days on Mrkt: +27.5%
Price/Sq Ft: -3.8%
Median Sales Price: -7.4%

Makes you wonder about those owners bringing their units to market that are greater than recent comps. Hope springs eternal, I guess.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 5 years ago
Posts: 9878
Member since: Mar 2009

Back on market @17% lower than 2017 sale price:
https://streeteasy.com/building/221-west-77-street-new_york/17

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Response by 300_mercer
over 5 years ago
Posts: 10570
Member since: Feb 2007

The joy of new development!!!

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Response by thoth
over 5 years ago
Posts: 243
Member since: May 2008

Wow, the latest numbers from Noah indicate the market has gotten much worse in a hurry. The current market pulse is now down -32.7% YOY, which is nearly 2x as worse as just 2 weeks ago.

Curious to see where the deals being negotiated now land, price wise.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 5 years ago
Posts: 9878
Member since: Mar 2009

Wait until the quarterly reports come out in a few days. Everyone is going to have good reasons as to why the numbers are so astronomically down, but all the media are going to jump on them. How do you think that will affect the market?

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Response by George
over 5 years ago
Posts: 1327
Member since: Jul 2017

Gosh, ya think maybe sellers would get the memo? The number of listings coming back online at the same prices as in Feb make me wonder if sellers realize what just happened to NY and the world.

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Response by 300_mercer
over 5 years ago
Posts: 10570
Member since: Feb 2007

Thoth, Digs numbers are not meaningful right now as the showings were not allowed till last week.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 5 years ago
Posts: 9878
Member since: Mar 2009

George,
I think there are going to be a lot of sellers getting "But I turned down an offer for more than that" tattoos.

Remember last Fall when you heard a lot of "It's a great time to buy right now"? Was it?

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Response by ToRenoOrNotToReno
over 5 years ago
Posts: 119
Member since: Jul 2017

Don’t take it from 30yrs or George or me & my lyin eyes, but let’s hear what Barry Sternlicht thinks (who does this for a living and isn’t selling you broker bullshnit):

https://youtu.be/b1R6Ola15hI

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Response by George
over 5 years ago
Posts: 1327
Member since: Jul 2017

I was digging through old threads looking for that place on Park Ave listed at $1.375M (if memory serves) where the coop board rejected the sale and made them relist at $1.8M or so. I was curious what happened to it. Along the way I passed many "great time to buy" threads including that long-running one titled "signs the market is improving."

Judging by the number of families not returning to the competitive private school my kids attend, I am not expecting any sort of pent-up demand to change the overall market trajectory. There is still a long way to fall. We are seriously considering buying a vacation house and renting in NYC for the foreseeable future -- if we get a big concession on the rent.

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Response by inonada
over 5 years ago
Posts: 7952
Member since: Oct 2008

And if you don’t get a big concession on rent, what would you do then?

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 5 years ago
Posts: 9878
Member since: Mar 2009

George,
Is this the one you were thinking of?
https://streeteasy.com/sale/1415942

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Response by George
over 5 years ago
Posts: 1327
Member since: Jul 2017

Yes, thanks. Interesting that it never actually sold. Coop boards will soon be saying, "but you turned down more than that last year. Just don't sell for a decade till this passes."

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Response by thoth
over 5 years ago
Posts: 243
Member since: May 2008

@ToReno - Wow, Sternlicht doesn't hold back. That was a refreshing frank interview vs. the usual dull platitudes served up by most CEOs.

@300 - I'm not focused on any single datapoint, but rather the pattern over time. Will be interesting to see how these numbers evolve as we get further and further away from the lockdown.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 5 years ago
Posts: 9878
Member since: Mar 2009

Here is something which has happened before:
Whether they had "official" floor prices or the Board just discouraged owners from selling at prices which the market would bare, unit owners rented their units I stead which caused owner occupancy to drop, which led to absentee owners voting down maintenance increases, Assessments

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 5 years ago
Posts: 9878
Member since: Mar 2009

Here is something which has happened before:
Whether they had "official" floor prices or the Board just discouraged owners from selling at prices which the market would bare, unit owners rented their units instead which caused owner occupancy to drop, which led to absentee owners voting down maintenance increases, Assessments, Building improvements/general maintenance projects, and then led to difficulties obtaining financing on shares.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 5 years ago
Posts: 9878
Member since: Mar 2009

What you can tell from UrbanDigs June numbers is that new resale listings came in at 1,409 (+182.4% from prior month, +18% from prior year) while contracts came in at 220 (+54.9% from prior month, -71.7% from prior year) which pretty much kills the argument made by some that "it's a supply issue." We will now see how the "buyers will come flooding back" argument falls apart over the next month.

So what's the guess on what the most popular next excuses are going to be about how the market is actually improving and that supply outstripping demand by hundreds of points won't lead to lower prices?

July 2016 saw about 1100 new listings and 730 contracts signed, and that was already leading into the down market. So if we see more listings than that and less contracts signed this year I find it hard to believe that it won't indicate further downward price pressure.

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Response by ToRenoOrNotToReno
over 5 years ago
Posts: 119
Member since: Jul 2017

New excuses will be same as old excuses

- Manhattan sellers are rich and don’t “need” to sell, so they won’t
- People haven’t even come back to the city yet with schools etc. uncertain, so Spring 2021 is when true demand is realized
- “Prices have already come down!” (on new development, but misapplied logic to 99% of resale asks)

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Response by KeithBurkhardt
over 5 years ago
Posts: 2986
Member since: Aug 2008

Prices go up and down based on various events, and we're in the middle of a global pandemic that has crippled economies over the globe. New York City has been one of the hardest hit u.s. cities by the pandemic, though we're currently doing much better than other places. Of course this has and is going to have a negative effect on real estate prices. This isn't news.

I sort of get tired of saying this, buying a home is consumption. And for 100% of the clients I work with, it's a small part of their total net worth. They're buying a home for the family, a place they will aesthetically love and enjoy creating their life in. And hopefully it will become a nice portion of a well-diversified portfolio.

If you prefer to rent you've got plenty of options in New York City, if you're over the city move to New Jersey or Connecticut. I just don't understand why we beat this subject like a dead horse here. Buy, don't buy, who cares what you do??!

The market goes up and down if you want to time it, best of luck to you.

Keith
TBG

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Response by George
over 5 years ago
Posts: 1327
Member since: Jul 2017

Keith, congratulations on having such well-heeled clients that they can buy a NYC apartment and have it be a "small part of their net worth."

You do not live in the real world. Nor do your clients.

In the real world, people take out mortgages because they don't have $20 million, much less $5 million, laying around with which to purchase a family-sized apartment. Hence the constant cheering for the market to go down so that perhaps families will be able to afford to put their entire net worth into an apartment in which to live in this city that everyone says is so great. This is how NYC was until about 20 years ago, and with luck, prices will fall enough that the city will once again become affordable for people besides your clients.

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Response by KeithBurkhardt
over 5 years ago
Posts: 2986
Member since: Aug 2008

When you look at debt to income ratios, total savings, total income. it is indeed a small portion, if not a reasonable portion of their total net worth.

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Response by KeithBurkhardt
over 5 years ago
Posts: 2986
Member since: Aug 2008

I'd like to live in Tribeca in a 2000 square-foot loft, however my income dictates that I live in Washington heights. I accept what is, and what the market dictates. If the paradigm shifts and I can move into that loft in Tribeca so be it.

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Response by KeithBurkhardt
over 5 years ago
Posts: 2986
Member since: Aug 2008

You can definitely find a family-sized apartment for a lot less than 5 million dollars, even in Manhattan. Just sold a beautiful townhouse at 154 Underhill avenue in Brooklyn, $3M, also a large 3 bedroom 3 bathroom at The Beekman regent 2.475...

You have champagne taste George...

Keith
TBG

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Response by multicityresident
over 5 years ago
Posts: 2431
Member since: Jan 2009

@keith - were you the buyer's broker for the unit at The Beekman Regent or the seller's broker? If the buyer's broker, how much due diligence did you do or is that solely the province of the buyer's attorney? NWT helped me sift through some oddities with respect to that building when we were renting there and contemplating purchase many years ago. That was my introduction to how NYC real estate is not for the uninitiated. I haven't looked at the building in many years so I have no current knowledge; the apartments and the building itself were quite beautiful.

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Response by George
over 5 years ago
Posts: 1327
Member since: Jul 2017

For $3M not to be a big portion of someone's net worth, for $3M to be part of a "well-diversified portfolio", the household has to be worth somewhere north of $5M, maybe $10M. Household wealth of $10M is the top 1% of wealth in this country. Considering that wealth builds with age, $10M is a small fraction of the top 1% if we consider only people of prime home-buying age, say between 30 and 45. Again, congratulations if this is you or your clients, but let's recognize that the vast majority of homebuyers, somewhere between 99% and 100%, are priced out of Manhattan at this point. This is why it would be a very good thing for prices to fall 50%+ and I will cheer when/if it happens.

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Response by 300_mercer
over 5 years ago
Posts: 10570
Member since: Feb 2007

George, Unless you are in high $ per sq ft segment ($3k per sq ft Plus Overpriced new development), I think of 20-35 percent of the apartment value as counting towards portfolio allocation. Essentially required down payment plus some. So $3mm, 2000 sq ft apartment may be considered as $750k-1mm portfolio allocation.

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Response by George
over 5 years ago
Posts: 1327
Member since: Jul 2017

Housing tends to be highly levered. If you put down 500k on a 3m place, and it falls to 2.8m, you have 0 equity left. (The remaining 300k is transfer tax, broker fees to sell, and mortgage tax.)

Thus when thinking about a portfolio, I use the fully levered value not the cash at work.

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Response by 300_mercer
over 5 years ago
Posts: 10570
Member since: Feb 2007

Ha. You will never buy in Manhattan, which is a perfectly fine decision.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 5 years ago
Posts: 9878
Member since: Mar 2009

Keith,
Is it another great time to buy right now - since buyers clearly have the "upper hand" with tons more supply coming on the market than demand exists to absorb it - plus the market is poised to go "VOOM!" (Just like the parrot in that Monty Python sketch) as the huge backlog of buyers returns to the market - or should buyers hold off instead and wait for the market to find its bottom first?

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Response by George
over 5 years ago
Posts: 1327
Member since: Jul 2017

30, I have owned in Manhattan. Learned a lot to look out for.

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Response by George
over 5 years ago
Posts: 1327
Member since: Jul 2017

*300.

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Response by 300_mercer
over 5 years ago
Posts: 10570
Member since: Feb 2007

George, Did you sell as you wanted bigger space with kids? For a smaller place, your portfolio calculations with market value of the apartment as input rather than 25-35 percent of value will work.

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Response by George
over 5 years ago
Posts: 1327
Member since: Jul 2017

Sold because Mrs George hated most of what I had before she got her MRS. But also the building was a mess, and indeed still is, many years later. The construction quality was poor, leading to litigation against the sponsor (who of course had already drained the money), a 25% hike in monthlies because the sponsor underestimated the costs, multiple big assessments, a title issue that temporarily halted sales, bothersome construction next door, replacing the management company, noise issues and ultimately the eviction of the main commercial tenant, tearing open walls in everyone's apartment to remediate bad plumbing, and of course a long and contentious Board debate about whether to allow a resident to put a communal grill on the roof (the decision was no.) I feel like I saw it all except a land lease issue. As a renter, I can walk away from a situation like that.

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Response by 300_mercer
over 5 years ago
Posts: 10570
Member since: Feb 2007

That is rough indeed!! Sorry that you had to deal with this. I guess I have been lucky to buy in a low-key small coop who has/d none of these issues. Maintenance does go up every year due to increased real estate taxes partially offsetting lower and lower mortgage rates.

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Response by 300_mercer
over 5 years ago
Posts: 10570
Member since: Feb 2007

And I refrained from buying till the time I was married for a couple of years. Gives you time to figure out what you both like and afford comfortably.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 5 years ago
Posts: 9878
Member since: Mar 2009

I'm not so sure how you explain away 5 and 9 year aged resales as "new construction discounts."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/03/realestate/most-expensive-home-sales-new-york-june-2020.html

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Response by KeithBurkhardt
over 5 years ago
Posts: 2986
Member since: Aug 2008

Curbed: No, Manhattan Home Prices Are Not Plummeting.
https://www.curbed.com/2020/7/8/21314969/manhattan-home-prices-covid

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Response by ToRenoOrNotToReno
over 5 years ago
Posts: 119
Member since: Jul 2017

Loved the comments on this article:

- “wow – this is some mental gymnastics of gold medal Olympic quality. Of course housing prices are getting crushed in NYC…. Prices are back down to 2013 levels or lower…. You’d have to be an idiot to pay 2014 prices or higher…..”
- “ Had the same take as you — from the data it’s clear NYC prices have fallen to 2013-2014 levels. The data also shows there were far fewer transactions in the last quarter than usual. If there had been a normal amount, common sense tells you the prices would have been even lower.“

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 5 years ago
Posts: 9878
Member since: Mar 2009

I'm kind of sad that now that showings have resumed it seems Fritz Frigan may have abandoned collecting data on offers vs asking prices and gone back to collecting data on Open Houses. That's not to say the Open House Report isn't both valuable and appreciated, but that I'd love to have both (which I concede would be a lot of work). And if I had to pick one or the other it would probably be the bids at this point.

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Response by waitforit
over 5 years ago
Posts: 4
Member since: Dec 2010
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Response by KeithBurkhardt
over 5 years ago
Posts: 2986
Member since: Aug 2008

Chaves Perlowitz Luftig LLP, were also putting out ask vs. close data based on office transactions. Though I haven't seen an email from them in a while...

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Response by KeithBurkhardt
over 5 years ago
Posts: 2986
Member since: Aug 2008

Here's an actual report on unique views for a new listing we have up on streeteasy. It's difficult to quantify exactly how this relates to an actual sale of the property. I'm just providing it as a reference for real world activity from potential buyers in today's market, in case anyone's curious.

Listing Views
Number of times your listing details page was viewed
TOTAL 7/02 - 7/09
1115 Listing Views While Not Featured
Thu7/02
Sun7/05
Wed7/08

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Response by likestocook
over 5 years ago
Posts: 28
Member since: Jun 2015

At what level of rental vacancy is NYC no longer in its 70-year-long "housing emergency" - and what happens to rent stabilization laws at that point?

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Response by 300_mercer
over 5 years ago
Posts: 10570
Member since: Feb 2007

They will figure out a way to ignore the vacancy data even if it means passing some amendment in Albany. It is not about fairness but votes.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 5 years ago
Posts: 9878
Member since: Mar 2009

likestocook,
I believe the trigger number is 5%
https://therealdeal.com/2020/06/02/new-yorkers-exodus-could-unravel-rent-regulation/

But I also agree with 300_mercer.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 5 years ago
Posts: 9878
Member since: Mar 2009

However I will also add that there is strong evidence that since the change last June landlords have been warehousing units which had been vacated by RS tenants since they can no longer raise rents substantially through renovation. I'm sure tenant advocates would use these intentionally held vacancies to argue that the "vacancy index" had become a Red Herring.

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Response by front_porch
over 5 years ago
Posts: 5316
Member since: Mar 2008

pretty photos Keith.

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Response by multicityresident
over 5 years ago
Posts: 2431
Member since: Jan 2009

It is a happy day in my world when 30yrs and 300_mercer agree.

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Response by KeithBurkhardt
over 5 years ago
Posts: 2986
Member since: Aug 2008

Good morning Halstead Open House Index followers and supporters! (Fritz Frigan)

Hoping we are the record holder for most visitors next week! We have six people lined up for our by appointment open house on Sunday. It will be a nice supplement to the dismal numbers is below.

Here is my report from this past weekend, the 4th of July weekend (which was never good weekend for open houses). With new rules in place and the buyers still fairly skittish about going around and seeing properties, it was not different this time.

I received just 56 replies to my survey, so please take these analysis with a grain of salt. There were just 939 open houses scheduled for all of New York City this past weekend, so almost 6% of all open houses are in my survey, not bad statistically, but still……

The average attendance last weekend was 1.18 per open house, a 21% drop from 1.51 recorded on the weekend of June 28, the first weekend when open houses were schedule after the lockdown. 30 open houses reported zero attendance, which is a record 53% that did not see any visitors. I am not going into deep thinking about this. We are all currently scratching our collective heads, trying to figure out where the buyers are – having majority of open houses “By Appointment Only” does not help and in addition the complexity and madness of signing all these new forms before the showings probably has some bad effect to. I think it would be super useful if all brokerage firms would standardize their policies on the issue of new forms. I hear reports that some brokers are not caring at all and they show to anyone who calls, without requirement for Covid related forms. The others are super strict and unless the forms are received 24 hours in advance AND properly completed, the showings are not granted. When some brokers comply with this new policy and others don’t, the customers, our buyers become confused. And it is our job not to confuse the buyers, because confused buyers don’t make offers.

Here is the dataset. Let’s measure the attendance for the whole month of July and then start drawing some conclusions, deal?

The most visited open house was the one by Erica Liss of Corcoran. She reported 14 visitors at her first open house for her new exclusive at 490 Halsey in the Bed Stuy part of Brooklyn.

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Response by Rrolack
over 5 years ago
Posts: 19
Member since: Jul 2009

I've tried to get an idea of how much the Manhattan market is down due to COVID.

My sources are the Q2 Manhattan reports from Douglas Elliman, Corcoran and Compass, and also the Q1 report from Compass. Unfortunately I can't link to the reports because if I have too many links, StreetEasy thinks my post is spam. But the reports are easy to find.

Apparently the YoY metrics are skewed because, according to Corcoran, "Second Quarter 2019 price figures skewed by a surge in high-end closings caused by July 2019 mansion and transfer tax deadline." If you look at Corcoran's quarterly chart, it's indeed clear that Q2 2019 was a large outlier. As a result, I looked at QoQ metrics, i.e. Q1 2020 --> Q2 2020.

According to these reports, the purported QoQ statistics are as follows:

- Median price per square foot (PPSF) is +1% for Corcoran. Douglas Elliman and Compass do not report Median PPSF.

- Average PPSF is +6.6% for Douglas Elliman, -5% for Corcoran, and +0.3% for Compass.

- Median Sales Price is -5.7% for Douglas Elliman, -3% for Corcoran, and -4.5% for Compass.

- Average Sales Prices is -0.3% for Douglas Elliman, +2% for Corcoran, and +2.5% for Compass.

If you average across the brokerages for each statistic, then you'd say that:

- Median PPSF is +1%

- Average PPSF is +0.6%

- Median Sales Price is -4.4%.

- Average Sales Price is +1.4%

Overall the picture seems to be that Q2 prices were basically flat relative to Q1.

Does this sound generally right to folks? I would have thought we'd be down more than this. Thoughts?

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Response by 300_mercer
over 5 years ago
Posts: 10570
Member since: Feb 2007

Rrolack, Many of these statistics are contracts signed or close to signed pre-corona. From Fritz Frigan accepted offer statistics Keith posted in one of these threads, accepted offers were 6-8% below last ask. Pre-corona they are probably 3-6 percent below ask. So assuming people have not adjusted the asks that fast, this suggests 2-3 percent decline. Naturally there will be a range depending on the property. Also, the showings have just opened. So it is early to draw any meaningful conclusion from data.

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Response by front_porch
over 5 years ago
Posts: 5316
Member since: Mar 2008

Actually 300 Mercer, we know from Jon Miller's stats that pre-Corona closings were 7% below last ask.

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Response by front_porch
over 5 years ago
Posts: 5316
Member since: Mar 2008

And Rrolack, you're looking at it.... um, wrong. If "what trades" is trading at the same price as before, but there are substantially fewer trades, then from my POV (I'm both a buyer and seller's broker) then the market is not flat; it is weakening.

However, as 300 points out, the volume numbers for 2Q are meaningless because the markets were paused -- you have Zoom trades here are there, but for the most part properties were not widely shown. We are all now *just beginning* to show in person, and even that's a ramp up (I'm proud to report that yesterday I fought with a Big Firm broker as I tried to explain to her why I required contact tracing forms).

Inventory has also been suppressed by the fact that we haven't been able to get properties renovated (hell, even painted) and it will take a little time for that bulge to work through the system. We'll start to have some data at the end of July that will act as a windsock, but we won't really have a sense of the sales market till the beginning of September at the earliest, I don't think. Add in that rentals are soft now; whether they stay soft going into fall is going to be a big factor in sales pricing.

ali r.
{upstairs realty}

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Response by 300_mercer
over 5 years ago
Posts: 10570
Member since: Feb 2007

So basically it is too early to draw any meaningful conclusion from the limited post corona data we have.

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Response by George
over 5 years ago
Posts: 1327
Member since: Jul 2017

2 of the top 3 sales in the Olshan Report this week were sold at losses.

https://www.olshan.com/marketreport.php

The overall activity of 12 is in line with last year, which was very weak. Usually 20 sales a week is a healthy luxury market, Olshan says. The pent-up demand is not yet showing up in NYC. And it's anybody's guess where pricing will shake out.

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Response by KeithBurkhardt
over 5 years ago
Posts: 2986
Member since: Aug 2008

Buyers are being very selective. The so-called pent-up demand has been very muted, however it has been much more active since physical showings started. We had approximately 13 groups at a new open house in Brooklyn, no offers as of yet, multiple new showings scheduled. Our activity has essentially doubled over the last 3 weeks, however this is not translated into contracts as of yet, we now have two accepted offers on properties under $1M.

Keith
TBG

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Response by thoth
over 5 years ago
Posts: 243
Member since: May 2008

Latest from Noah, all numbers are YoY change:

Market pulse: -52.5%
Supply: +0.6%
Pending Sales: -52.3

At least based on these numbers, supply seems to have rebounded fairly quickly, while demand remains deeply depressed. While this is early days, I hope brokers are managing seller expectations accordingly.

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Response by ToRenoOrNotToReno
over 5 years ago
Posts: 119
Member since: Jul 2017
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Response by Rrolack
over 5 years ago
Posts: 19
Member since: Jul 2009

Have there been many reports of buyers walking away from contracts signed pre-COVID? If not, does this mean buyers don't think the market is down more than 10% (where if it were down more than 10%, they would be walking away)?

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Response by front_porch
over 5 years ago
Posts: 5316
Member since: Mar 2008

Urban Digs might have a more recent take, but In April, Steven Matz of Katz and Matz 's take was that buyers were asking for additional concessions but he only saw one broken contract.

Start listening about the 23-minute mark: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdBNNdnpYbQ

Now that we are active again, buyers are coming in lower than they previously might have, but in my world of under $2mm properties in Manhattan, I am not seeing offers that are 10% off list being accepted. I'm going to put in a caveat that I'm talking not buying or selling studios right now; I have heard anecdotally of weakness in that market but I'm not in it.

ali r.
upstairs realty

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Response by KeithBurkhardt
over 5 years ago
Posts: 2986
Member since: Aug 2008

The New York Times: How Well Is the Real Estate Market Recovering?.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/23/realestate/real-estate-market-coronavurus-recovery.html

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Response by KeithBurkhardt
over 5 years ago
Posts: 2986
Member since: Aug 2008

454 deals signed signed since June 22nd (Opening), significant increase in inventory along with some promising numbers with recent weekly contract activity.

We've been busy, townhouse Market in Brooklyn continues to be very active (we have two offers out right now, both homes have multiple bids). We recently signed three contracts, have an accepted offer on a 3-bedroom 3-bathroom in Brooklyn. Our new listing in Brooklyn has five strong offers, our first open house had 14 groups (I was surprised we were not on Fritz's most popular open house list!) Was disappointed to see such abysmal numbers in Fritz's last open house report!

DISCLOSURE: I'm simply reporting what we're experiencing. See Urbandigs weekly report for a more general perspective on the market:

https://youtu.be/xI6hqPSeIOE

Keith
TBG

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Response by KeithBurkhardt
over 5 years ago
Posts: 2986
Member since: Aug 2008

If you haven't been watching these vlogs fire Urban digs, login to YouTube and give it a try. Great weekly wrap-up of data points for New York City real estate transactions. See what's actually happening rather than guessing;

https://youtu.be/2Gva9ooJrw0

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Response by front_porch
over 5 years ago
Posts: 5316
Member since: Mar 2008

I am curious as to the divergence between the Urban Digs numbers and the numbers that we are getting from other sources.

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Response by thoth
over 5 years ago
Posts: 243
Member since: May 2008

Thank goodness for Noah. Great to have real data to see where the market in Manhattan is headed. Not surprising, but looks like July's numbers were disastrous:

Daily numbers (Yoy % change)
Supply: +20%
Pending Sales: -50.6%
Days on Market: +24.4%
Market Pulse: -58.1%

July numbers (YoY % Change)
Price / Sq ft: -8.9%
Media Sale price: -15.6%
Monthly New Supply: +125.4%
Monthly Contract Activity: -38.7%

The other change is that most of the negative trends used to be concentrated in new developments, but now existing is doing just as bad as new. Combine this with all the stories of quality of life decreasing, the city's financial challenges, and people fleeing for the suburbs and it's just negative trends all around.

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Response by ToRenoOrNotToReno
over 5 years ago
Posts: 119
Member since: Jul 2017

Good summary Thoth

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Response by Rrolack
over 5 years ago
Posts: 19
Member since: Jul 2009

According to UrbanDigs, PPSF is down 7.8% YOY for resales, but is down only 1.8% for new development. Does that difference between resales and new development match the reality of the situation, or is it just due to a small sample size (where one big deal can skew the results)?

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Response by 300_mercer
over 5 years ago
Posts: 10570
Member since: Feb 2007

Dig PPSF is compares the apartments sold recently to apartments sold in a past period. So change in mix of the apartments can lead to a big variation.

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Response by AnonMan2002
over 5 years ago
Posts: 165
Member since: Feb 2009

almost a 20% haircut today to a price thats still waaaaayyyyy too high

https://streeteasy.com/building/greenwich-court-295-greenwich-street-new_york/3o

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Response by Dickens
over 4 years ago
Posts: 104
Member since: Mar 2014

Ha, hope springs eternal for this listing.

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Response by AnonMan2002
over 4 years ago
Posts: 165
Member since: Feb 2009

hoping for a sucker to bid $999k to get below the mansion tax? lol

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Response by George
over 4 years ago
Posts: 1327
Member since: Jul 2017

These people are not at all serious about selling. One prices at $1m not $999k and not $1.01m. If you price at 999, you miss anyone looking at 1m+, and at 1.01m, you miss anyone who sets an upper limit at 1m.

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Response by pier45
over 4 years ago
Posts: 379
Member since: May 2009

Anyone searching 1M+ has a greater aspiration and will move right on.

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