Back from Aspen to Wonderland

I had to tell him - Do not stare wide-eyed like a tourist from Nowhere. And the answer was - I can’t help it as it is better than ever. And he is well aware of the painful impact of store closures, loss of business as offices are not fully open yet, De Blasio related issues etc.

So I guess this is proof that it doesn't matter if we tax these people (or their property here) if they always come back anyway.

30, How about some cheering for NYC?

Unless of course, your comment was meant as a cheer as in - I know there are problems but everything considered it is still a very good place.

Lol I’m with 30 — let’s tax the hell out of every non-resident property owner until we’ve back-filled the budget. 10% millage rate. Unless their property somehow manages to fly with them back to Columbus or Aspen, those are tax revenues which the city can rely on.

My point is that every time there is any sort of tax proposed on people that sound to me to be like your friend (like the defeated Pied-a-Terre tax) there is endless hand wringing and "We can't do that because they will leave." And I think that is incongruous with the experience and sentiment of the instant anecdote.

That could be a good strategy. We’ve already had a bit of “charge the non-resident owner more”. Perhaps the right amount (making up for a lack of income tax), perhaps not. However, “screw the non-resident owner” has been avoided because it’d kill new construction and depress prices.

At this point, I think new construction is killed for the next decade regardless. So not much to lose there. As far as depressing prices, I don’t think that’s a very big net difference. Mostly means ownership stagnates in the same hands.

You sorta want to avoid “screw the foreigners” in situations where the foreigners remember. For example, Argentinian debt. Everybody goes into that market knowing the political system will just screw the foreigners once every decade or two, and yield is charged accordingly. Happens infrequently, but there is institutional knowledge on the matter. I.e., even if Argentinian default hasn’t screwed you personally, you know it’s always on the table as a sophisticated institutional investor specializing in sovereign debt.

With NYC real estate, I’m not so sure. If NYC screws the foreigners tax-wise, I’m not sure the next generation of speculators piling into the next bubble a couple of decades out will remember. Therefore, there may not be long-term repercussions from foreign investors (and by “foreign”, I mean non-resident in the case of NYC).

Non-resident owners are already charged higher real estate taxes (appx 20 percent higher than owners using as primary residence) and they do not use schools etc. If you increase the tax differential between resident and non-residents, the renters will suffer the burden. Of course, one can tax empty apartments for say more than 180 days only. Another downside of higher taxation is impact of city revenues from transfer, mansion and mortgage recording taxes as transaction volumes will drop.

Separately, any one with uplifting stories of life in NYC? NYPost more than covers the scary side without mentioning any thing positive.

I think NYC should seriously consider an "Emergency Cancellation" of all tax abatements. What are they going to do? Tear the buildings down out of spite? NYC is going to have to raise taxes substantially one way or another any way you slice it, so it just seems the way least likely to have recourse (i.e. if you raise income taxes people can actually leave so you can't collect them. But you cancel tax abatements - as ToRenoOrNotToReno said - they can't exactly leave NYC and take the apartments with them).

@ToRenoOrNot - Hey! That Columbus comment felt personal! :) Why not appreciate us for the taxes we pay without using the services?

Come on. While I am guilty of participating in tax discussion, can we make this thread happy uplifting NYC recent stories thread rather than how to screw non-residents (I am a resident)?

I will borrow one from Westsiderag.

https://www.westsiderag.com/2020/09/03/throwback-thursday-30-years-of-adventures-on-the-upper-west-side

300, first of all I don’t think increasing taxes on owners increases rent. Rents follow supply and demand very closely & instantaneously, as the recent 25% reduction in rents has shown. Likely in response to something like a mere 5% change in demand. So if you tax owners, owners will bear the cost. That said, you make a good point on the effect it’d have on depressing transaction taxes severely.

Having said that, I’ll give you some uplifting.

First of all, after my 101 days as a beach bum, I’ll be back in the city on Monday. In the midst of this unhappy time for so many, it was a one-time opportunity to do something different. But I’ll be back, like many others. Never intended to do anything different, and I think as time goes on you’ll see that much of the exodus was temporary. Except for the whiners, who just pulled their plans in a couple of years. NYers have been pissing on the streets for decades, doesn’t bother me any more than the beachgoers pissing on my beach path here.

Second, reality is still in favor of NYC. Some friends with a second home recently upgraded their NYC apt, despite not having been there since March effectively, because they weren’t interested in spending the winter at the second home, and because professional life is in NYC.

Finally, a bit of personal advice. The N.Y. Post has all sorts of fun articles that attract you. But buried in there is a political agenda they are trying to sell. I lean left, but I think DeBlasio is sucky too and Bloomberg was great. But at some point, when you are being fed horseshit day after day, maybe you should get your news from a more reliable source than a tabloid with a grievance agenda. The Post could be having articles daily about the pissers here on my beach, but it doesn’t.

Just some lighthearted ribbing MultiCity :)

But seriously though, I don't agree with a lot of the concern that jacking up property taxes is going to necessarily hurt the city's tax revenues or even raise rents. On the former, so what if appraised values go down -- the government can just raise the millage rates more to backsolve into whatever revenue number they need. As for renters, most market-rate multifamily apartments have NOI margins in the >50% range -- as we saw in the last up-cycle, sure seems like supply/demand & consumer budgets determined pricing and not cost+plus pricing.

As long as I’m on the topic of pissers, last year I had a short trip to Paris during their 2019 heat wave. As a result, I took my runs along the Seine in the early evening. One evening, I saw some young Parisian reveler just pissing on the wall at (say) 6:30pm in broad daylight as sunset was around 9:00pm. I’m like WTF, even I as a 2-day tourist running along here know there is a public bathroom no more than 100 meters down the bank of the river. I just saw it yesterday, surely you must know it’s there too.

In the NY Post, I’m sure that dude’s pissing would have been front page news about the decline of 2019 Paris, and how DeBlasio is to blame for it all, exporting his style of communism worldwide.

Nada, I agree that NYPost has a clear bias to the right and I have always kept that in mind. In general, it is hard to find unbiased news - forget about Editorials.

Sometimes I read British news papers who seem to me to be less biased. Unfortunately they do not cover NYC much.

It's almost comical how fragile Manhattanites have become, but I predicted this. A bump in crime, some civil unrest, and people would scream like it's the next apocalypse. And that's kind of what's happening. The comical part is people actually thinking we have gone back anywhere close to the 1970s/1980s.

FWIW, I support raising property taxes on non-residents (but I have no idea what repercussions that would have). We’d still have a place in NYC, though our resources are not infinite, so at some point we would have to downsize.

And I agree with 300_mercer regarding its being impossible to find unbiased news. My favorite news source is The Economist. I am sure it biased too, but not in any way that pushes my buttons. But to really put things in perspective, I like listening to Chinese news; not only does it help with perspective, but it also helps me improve my Chinese so that I can better communicate with our overlords in the foreseeable future.

As far as I can tell the State is looking at an annual shortfall of $14 billion and the city $9 billion. I think the chances aren't great the Feds would be coming forward with these funds. So I guess that leaves a bunch of tax increases and a bunch of austerity. It's going to be ugly but the job is going to be distributing the pain in the most rational, reasonable, and equitable way possible.

300, take a look at this chart on media bias & reliability:

https://www.adfontesmedia.com/

The main point is to go “up” (increased reliability), not left/right. E.g., there is a right-leaning bias in WSJ but they do not feed their readers horseshit.

I'm glad things are going so well in the Village and Meatpacking. It's a different story a couple of blocks East. I have started carrying a dummy wallet with $40 in it. Been here since '89 and never felt the need to do this previously. My cheering is for the MANY people here that wear masks as a matter of course and don't get worked up over some odd notion of personal liberty.

Nada, WSJ is my go to source for news but I keep their conservative bias when I read their editorials.

Stache, While I have not gone beyond 2nd ave to the East recently, I didn’t see any issues.

Also didn’t see any issues in Chelsea. Even UWS besides few more homeless on the median north of 72nd subway.

I didn't want to say anything because of the call for uplifting stories, but it doesn't feel right to say nothing. One of the few residents of our building who has been in the city throughout (our building has been only 20% occupied since mid-March) with whom I speak on the phone fairly regularly told me that our neighborhood is not good. She said she saw someone eating out of a trash can, something she had never seen before in our neighborhood, and the homeless are a regular presence. We've definitely got issues, and dealing with them is not going to be seamless.

@Inonada - Cool chart! Thx.

I went for a walk through Washington Square Park yesterday late afternoon (walk with my friend was the previous day) and NYU kids are back and full of hope, joy, excitement (of moving out of their parents home?), and energy. Suddenly all east village restaurants have a line. While there may be increasing corona cases as the city is getting more crowded, I hope it is contained and death rate remains very low.

As I continue to only see small improvements in urbandigs weekly updates, I'm happy to report we've been very busy, including a large influx of new buyers. That said the conversion rate to sign contracts is well below what we would have expected pre-covid. I've said this to Noah, I'm waiting for his charts to catch up with what we're experiencing. I'm about to go out for a run and then hit the beach, but I believe we've put about six deals in contract in the last month. We currently have three offers out including two accepted offers.

It's nice to open up my calendar and see that it's full, similar to a normal week pre-co-vid 19. Everything still feels very day today or week to week, but the activity and the number of deals we've been doing has been very encouraging. You can go to our transaction tab on our website to see what we've been up to. It might be one or two deals I haven't gotten up there yet.

I hope everybody's enjoying their Labor Day weekend!
http://www.theburkhardtgroup.com/transactions

Best,

Keith
TBG

On the bad front I'm not any closer to my dream of purchasing a brownstone in Brooklyn... I thought we would see significant price declines, so far not happening.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFJiXQPfxr8

Are they hired goons? I wonder.

@Stache - Interesting. Meanwhile in the heartland, we received an email notice from neighborhood organization that there will be dueling BLM and MAGA demonstrations in the neighborhood tomorrow. Keeping fingers crossed that the tinder box does not ignite, though I suspect some are hoping for the opposite.

Stache,

I am sure you saw NY Post. Hopefully, they will be dealt in accordance with the law.

https://nypost.com/2020/09/05/wealthy-nyc-woman-busted-in-blm-rampage/
https://nypost.com/2020/09/06/comic-book-artists-son-arrested-in-blm-rampage-in-nyc/

Didn't we just discuss using NY Post as a news source? Sigh. I'll let Inonada take it from here, or not, per his inclination.

What do you mean? The NY Post is America's Finest News Source.

I enjoy NY Post as much as the next person, and it doesn’t even push my buttons because I take it for what it is, as I suspect most New Yorkers do (and as your tongue-in-cheek comment suggests). If NY Post is cited by an opponent in any debate to back up their argument, you know you’ve won the point.

No comment: https://nypost.com/2020/09/07/rochester-blm-protester-hit-by-car-as-driver-sprays-crowds/

Although I haven't read the New York Post in years, it was the go-to rag with my bagel and coffee every morning. Whether you're on the right or the left, I thought it was reasonable morning entertainment, a sort of tradition. The daily news just isn't even readable.

Years ago I gave up on all this stuff; Instagram Facebook, television news etc. Google news feed is my last bastion of information, it casts a fairly large net depending on what it hears me discussing in the morning ; )

300 I don't read the Post. Sometimes Gothamist will link to a Post story and I or may not read the article. Thank you for drawing this to my attention.

The trouble with the Post and Trump is that sometimes they absolutely nail it in a way nobody else does. Example: https://nypost.com/2020/09/08/trump-rips-gov-cuomo-de-blasio-for-destroying-nyc/

@George - Exactly. These people know what they are doing, and they are very good at it. Stephen Miller is probably going to frame that one.

The Post, like Trump, comes out and says what so many are thinking but are afraid to say out loud because it makes them seem callous. They prey on everyone's darker thoughts and say "hey, these darker thoughts should be normalized! Don't let other people making you feel bad for your worldview." Those I know who are honest about their support for Trump on this basis don't grate on me the way those who are closet Trump supporters do.

I have one unabashed Trump supporter in my historical inner circle who is up front about all of it. He and I agree that Trump is not a White Supremacist, but rather simply a Trump Supremacist. My Trump supporter flat out admits his "live-by-the-sword-die-by-the-sword-survival-of-the-fittest-use-every-tool-in-your-arsenal-to-get-MORE" philosophy. He wants to take care of only those people he wants to take care of and put everyone into service for those he cares about.

He and I also agree that he is entitled to feel the way he does and cast his vote accordingly. I have no problem with that and respect his position, even if I don't agree with it.

And nothing grates on my Trump supporter more than "limousine liberals" like me and the kids featured in the post stories 300_mercer linked above re the most recent downtown "riots."

MCR, what about people who think Trump is equal parts brilliant and madman, and you're never sure which Trump will turn up today? (Brilliant because he takes on entrenched powers like big city mayors, China, Europeans not paying for NATO, the GOP, etc. Madman for the many obvious reasons.)

@George - That is every Trump supporter I know. There are a very few who work in foreign policy who fear the madman aspect more than they value the brilliant aspect, but those who are focused on domestic policy and don't really understand the international stuff are okay with the madman aspect (most likely because they have all the guns on their side, feel like a civil war would be short with their emerging as the victors, and then the sky would be the limit on their material comfort).

And then my favorites are those who value the madman aspect in international above all else. There are some who would welcome the tinder box that is the Middle East to ignite and turn the tide in some of the blood feuds that will never end there.

George, Are you sending your kids to school in the city now they are opening or in your vacation home town?

A good friend of mine in CA has hired a nanny cum teaching assistant with a couple of other families in their bubble so that the kids together attend online public school. I am sure families are making such arrangement in NYC and other places too if both parents work. Essentially teaching assistants are replacing nannies these families would need to hire for school pick-up and post school. Clearly, learning is not the same as in-person but it is only temporary.

I worked for the NY Post for two years. I was more focused on features than news (because I started and ran the real estate section) but I will say that a surprising amount of work goes into those news stories.

Forgot to mention that my friend's wife actually much prefers the on-line school for their 5y old for now rather than in-person as they do not want to take the risk.

Ali, I am sure you have some uplifting recent stories about NYC. Please share some.

Indoor dining back at 25%!!! It is a start. End of September.

I am thinking of this as a slow ramp up and making people feel comfortable with a slow start. Hopefully by the winter time, it will be 50% or higher.

I think last element is % of office workers back in person. We will get data at the end of month. This will be tremendous help to service workers and businesses in the these areas. I walked through midtown (6th ave 50th) and it is showing clear signs of life.

Have any Midtown office buildings upgraded their HVAC systems to be in compliance with Covid-related regulations? Are there regulations substantial enough that upgrades can be intelligently done? I have not seen any news on that, and figured it would be a fairly well-publicized process.

No way are places going to limit to 25%. This is going to be the biggest game of "Catch Me If You Can" in history.
https://champ.gothamist.com/champ/gothamist/food/brooklyn-karaoke-bar-nearly-300-people-inside-shut-down-over-labor-day-weekend

30, I think there is going to enforcement actions needed but with the current pleasant weather, I think 25 percent is workable.

Ira, Believe many of the buildings are ready with upgrades and additions like improved fresh air mix, special filters etc.

This thread is a funny read in its entirety. You have a number of posters discussing challenges as well as attributes of NYC, and then you have one voice ignoring all the others and repeating “Nothing to see here. Everything is great. I feel happy!” Reminds me of a certain politician.

More positives.
https://www.westsiderag.com/2020/09/08/city-will-move-homeless-out-of-the-lucerne-hotel-starting-this-weekend

Malls starting to open:
https://www.westsiderag.com/2020/09/09/the-upper-west-sides-one-mall-reopens-amazon-books-lululemon-and-other-shops-open

I am trying to get everything done I can think of now. Annual checkups, renewing ID's where needed etc. Trying to prepare for the next surge so I don't get caught with my pants down like the last time.

Stache, Makes sense to do what you can get done now with very low corona case rate in NYC. There is bound to be some increase as we reopen schools, offices, indoor dining etc. Hopefully, it will still remain pretty low.

Here's some nostalgic entertainment for you. I wouldn't say these are friends of mine but acquaintances. This certainly reminds me of the many trips my wife and friends took out to Coney Island in the summer with our then 3-year-old son (1987).

By 87 the city was remarkably better than it was when I moved there in 1982.. Nelson Sullivan, the filmmaker tragically died of a heart attack a few years after this was shot.

Enjoy: https://youtu.be/JN4ATDfCYmo

Here's some nostalgic entertainment for you. I wouldn't say these are friends of mine but acquaintances. This certainly reminds me of the many trips my wife and friends took out to Coney Island in the summer with our then 3-year-old son (1987).

By 87 the city was remarkably better than it was when I moved there in 1982.. Nelson Sullivan, the filmmaker tragically died of a heart attack a few years after this was shot.

Enjoy: https://youtu.be/JN4ATDfCYmo

@keith - Thanks for throwing 300_mercer a bone. The thread was getting painful.

Lol....

300 is just trying to keep the PMA going (positive mental attitude)!

and ignoring cyberstalkers.

Most of the stuff George was complaining about in his critique of NYC vs burbs are being slow addressed. Not prefect yet but huge progress in NYC.

Understood. Hopefully some others will join. I wish I could, but I am less in a “Wonderland” mood and in more of a “batten down the hatches” mood. I am in for the long haul and am a firm believer in NYC as the “greatest city in the world” (Hamilton!), but I personally cannot support the “No issues here as I stroll around!” talk track. More power to anyone who can.

For clarity, my response was to keith. As for 300_mercer, I personally don’t view those who disagree with me as cyberstalkers, but I suspect I have thicker skin and significantly more experience in discussion of complex public policy issues than some others might, so that’s what I get for engaging on such issues on the Internet.

Traders back soon at JPM.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/jpmorgan-top-brass-tell-trading-floor-staff-to-come-back-to-the-office-11599757313?mod=breakingnews

stache, I too am bingeing on medical care hoping to save up!

Columbia students back it seems.
https://www.westsiderag.com/2020/09/06/thousands-of-columbia-students-return-and-so-far-the-positive-covid-rate-is-low

George, What are your thoughts on the continued progress being made in the city?

NYC is behind almost everyone else. Nowhere USA has had schools, restaurants (indoor), gyms, salons, spas, real estate showings, retailers, and the like open since May or early June with a case rate per 100,000 less than NYC's.

They also don't have a mayor and governor who f-up everything they touch and then preen on CNN. Nor do they have a long line of the same sort of corrupt lazy idiots lining up for the jobs.

A Swiss person once said that the reason Switzerland runs so well is that nobody knows the name of the president of Switzerland. Wish NYers could say the same of their leaders.

So NYC lose you for good?

So DID NYC lose you for good?

300,
Where do you think those Lucerne Hotel homeless are being moved to that's such good news?

For anyone who has seen Fear City on Netflix, LCN is at this moment undergoing a nice resurgence taking over failed bars/restaurants/etc.

30, Post your question on the UWS drop dead thread. There are more residents of UWS there.

I'm still in NY (or will be as of next week) but blew my load on buying a second home in Nowhere, so we'll be renters for the foreseeable future. But we're both pleased that we have been very disciplined and now can vote with our feet if we need to.

300, I’m a little more interested as to why you think it’s good news about the Lucerne, as you’re implying you’re not a UWS resident with that statement. Why do you care if you’re not?

Irs, People are free to treat that as bad news and offer their vacant homes to the homeless.

George, I am glad that you are happy with your decision to buy a second home.

@30yrs - Interesting. Your comment just moved that documentary to the top of my watchlist on Netflix. Did you see The Kitchen? It is a work of fiction that I enjoyed and was wondering whether it had any foundation in fact. It focuses on Irish domination of Hell’s Kitchen with some cameos from LCN.

Some of the articles on Sammy Gravano give you some flavor of how the Westies interacted through construction jobs.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/09/10/nyregion/business-leaders-nyc-de-blasio.amp.html

Ooh, here’s some uplifting news to share! 16 NYC public school teachers test positive for Covid. (Not a New York Post article!!)

https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/education/ny-covid-teacher-response-20200910-5ma36xx5ivfsldjsujq3nn4d7u-story.html

It seems city has not been able to deliver the tests for staff with the promised 24-48 hour turnaround, and is instead delivering the tests results a week after the tests.

With that lag of getting test results back, how much space do you think that gives for exponential spread between staff and to students? Not a good sign for our ability to contain the spread if we don’t quickly know where it’s coming from or going. Doubly not a good sign as it seems that there has been little to no upgrading of public school facilities to improve air circulation.

@lrschrober: The friend with whom I speak fairly regularly on the phone who has remained in our building throughout is a healthcare professional and is worried. Her hospital was overwhelmed during the first wave, and she says they are much better prepared should there be a second wave, but that that is not great comfort given all of the unknowns and how horrific what they experienced during the first wave was.

And, on the air circulation front, that is something I am worried about for the city even in the best of times after dealing with the HPD on a venting issue related to our building. I cannot imagine what the venting is like in residential buildings where none of the residents are on top of the issue, not to mention large public facilities where there is almost certainly nobody on top of the issue.

On the homeless front, my same contact informed me that the city has contracted with a hotel not far from our building to assist. For my part, I think this is a good use of public funds, and I support the move, although there are many in our neighborhood who do not feel the same, and I respect their right to feel as they do. Who knows how this is all going to turn out, but again, I see a bumpy road for the foreseeable future as we work through all of these issues.

@George - My good sir, is your heart made of stone? How can you not enjoy the back and forth between the Love Gov and his brother: https://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2020/04/09/gov-andrew-chris-cuomo-stay-at-home-campaign-family-photo-intv-vpx.cnn

If all the outlet stores go bankrupt, does it matter whether or not the malls open? I’ve been chomping at the bit to get back into the Manhattan Mall to do some serious shopping.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/10/business/century-21-bankruptcy-closing/index.html

Should have Googled this sooner for a better punchline: https://nypost.com/2020/09/09/manhattan-mall-virtually-empty-as-shopping-centers-allowed-to-reopen/

Good luck to the Columbia students returning. Last night down here in NYU land while strolling around, I spotted two after-hours bars with blacked out windows roaring with the sound of people clearly packed indoors. And, groups of undergrad types entering & exiting private apartment buildings, no masks, coming from what I would imagine are well-attended house parties.

Irs, I hope you employed your good civic sense and called 311 To report on the after hour bars.

Meanwhile here in Wonderland all the nut cases that could not make bail have been released from Rikers. Sorry this is stale news but it explains people eating out of trash bins near multi's building.

NY does not have the resources for effective enforcement of many ordinances and regulations; COVID-related ordinances are at the top of those for which effective enforcement is simply not possible. 311 call, while making one feel better, will not get the job done.

lrschober,
I wonder how The Oculus is doing? It was empty pre-COVID.

Using the famous "broken windows" concept, once bar and restaurant owners see others open against the rules (hours and over 25% capacity) with close to zero enforcement everyone is going to start doing it (especially since almost no one can break even at 25%).