Bidding wars in the suburbs (part 6)

https://therealdeal.com/2021/01/15/brooklyn-sales-jumped-82-in-the-fourth-quarter/

In 2020, however, fourth-quarter sales shot up 82 percent from the third quarter to a total of 2,695. The number was also nearly 6 percent higher than the same period last year.

“The fourth quarter tends to have the lowest sales total of any quarter of the year and this year it has the highest,” said Jonathan Miller of Miller Samuel, author of the latest Douglas Elliman market report for Brooklyn and Queens home sales. “This is the clawback; this is the recovery and activity from the lockdown.”

There is lot of catch up for inactivity from April to August. All signs are to for us to have a very strong first quarter YOY.

This is a tough crowd 300...; )

The way I look at it is perma-renters with deep pockets really have no reason to buy with rents still cheap but any one who wants to own or leaning towards owning in NYC (resales only), what are they waiting for? All the free 2-3 months rent deals may be gone by June as well.

From George’s article about the 40/50-year-old youngins moving from the Upper West Side to Palm Beach:

http://avenuemagazine.com/young-new-yorkers-moving-to-palm-beach/

>> It was the home they had always dreamed of, designed by Sasha Bikoff, who, in a feature in Hamptons Cottages and Home magazine, described the aesthetic of the 2,100-square-foot three-bedroom apartment as “feminine and colorful, with some Hollywood glamour and Chinoiserie accents.”

What exactly had they dreamed of?

https://www.cottagesgardens.com/palm-beach-flair-on-the-upper-west-side/pic/150654/

That’s right, they had always dreamed of “Palm Beach Flair on the Upper West Side”.

The astute will note the June 26, 2020 date on the article. You think they left before or after the article was published?

As a perma-renter with deep pockets who has been very close to buying here, here's what I'm waiting for:

A competent mayor and governor
A bailout for the rich from Biden (e.g. salt deduction restored)
The State and City to sort their budget mess without big tax hikes
Sellers to get desperate like landlords are
My friends to decide to stay in NYC (so far a shocking number have left)
My kids next school to be sorted properly

Problem is we are likely to strike out on the first pitch. The candidates for mayor range from David Dinkins bad to John Lindsay bad.

In any case, can be yours for $4.5M or less:

https://streeteasy.com/building/221-west-77-street-new_york/5e

That’s asking $325K less than they paid, plus the design for free, for anyone here who is into that Palm Beach thing. But I don’t think you get an article in a magazine at that price.

More pics from the designer:

https://sashabikoff.com/portfolio-posts/upper-west-side-2

>> As a perma-renter with deep pockets who has been very close to buying here, here's what I'm waiting for...

What kind of perma-renter are you if:

1) You used to own an apt.
2) You were about to buy an apt a year ago.
3) You just bought a house 6 months ago.
4) You might not renew your rent in 6 months and go live in your house instead.

Please, you sir are not one of us! There is nothing permanent about your status as a renter.

My first grader is in NYC public school five days a week now. Everybody is much happier.

Does that mean DeBlasio is done standing in the schoolhouse door now, playing the part of George Wallace? What was that comparison from earlier?

I'm sure NYC's parents will find some other way to fulfill their self-victimizing fantasies towards city schooling policies soon enough.

I believe the current kerfuffle with city schools is eliminating some exam for 4 year olds. Which, AFAIC, is a good move by the schools. No 4 year old is gifted. Nor should any 4 year old be taking any sort of test.

George, What do think is per child spending by city on G&T programs vs average spending per child? And if it is lower than or just average, why is it so? If it is not more costly, why not give parents a choice rather than forcing an individual belief system.

And while you look for that data, an easy who said question for you - "From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs".

I feel like someone should start a Part 7 due to the length of this installation, but I am too lazy to do it. I am delving into blockchain these days and came across this tweet, which will make the George faction happy. https://mobile.twitter.com/Melt_Dem/status/1354072857433792512

On a separate note, for anyone interested in crypto, a not-publicized aspect of a16z's crypto funds is that one of the general partners running it has no investment experience, no business experience, no regulatory experience, no money to invest (by VC standards), no finance experience. Not even education in the aforementioned areas. FedSoc mafia at work. Absolutely brilliant. I am unconcerned about those sophisticated investors who are risking their own funds; hopefully no pension funds gambling with the retirement income of others. Also check out a16z's new media shop. Anyone else you can think of who decided to cut out the main stream media to pitch their wares directly to the masses?

On a separate note, I am thoroughly confused by 300_mercer's quoting Karl Marx. Did not see that coming. As is often the case on here, I suspect I am missing something that is probably apparent to others.

Maybe if conservatives didn't cheat on their taxes so blatantly, NY wouldn't have to invest as much effort in chasing them down. But they do, so we do.

The fact those Twitterati view the situation as an indictment of NY governance, rather than of the craven morality of its so-called "job creators", says a lot about the depth of critical thinking found in that medium. Hardly the kind of citizenry we want to cultivate; ta-ta.

Not going to lie - I am happy to see them go.

MCR, how am I supposed to interpret that tweet? That she moved to NH as soon as she heard Cuomo proposed taxing Airbnb?

Ha! Excellent take that had not occurred to me.

Can any of the finance types on here direct me to a good online discussion on a finance-equivalent of Streeteasy of the SEC's recent approval of NYSE's direct listing rule? I just connected the dots on something I had been watching and am disgusted and outraged, but also tipping my hat to how another one of my former besties is poised to become private-island-rich off this 11th-hour gift from the Trump administration. I am telling you, FedSoc mafia is not to be underestimated; this was a stroke of genius, creating a different moral hazard under the guise of reform (those who knowingly create the moral hazard are always the best-poised to take advantage of it). Seriously well-played, and by the time main street catches up, this crew will be long gone, safe on their private islands.

@mcr: I haven't seen a discussion of the new rule, but also haven't been paying much attention to that particular corner of the business (I'm in finance). Does the adopting notice give any insight? What's the moral hazard?

(For non-insiders: When an SEC rule is proposed, it goes through a public notice process, and all the public input and concerns (the legit ones, at least) have to be considered and reconciled to the rule text in the paperwork that finally adopts the (possibly modified) rule - a painfully long doc, in many cases).

@Aaron2: Here is the dissent: https://www.sec.gov/news/public-statement/lee-crenshaw-listings-2020-12-23. Note the date of the ruling, then note the date that Jay Clayton stepped down from his SEC Commissioner position. Honestly, the average american does not stand a chance. They took a hit when Jessie Liu was blocked from the Treasury position she was wired for, but they found another way. It is all legal and effing brilliant. The rich get richer, mom and pop don't stand a chance, and meanwhile they've got the working factions literally shooting each other.

When I was parting ways in 2016 (because of their support for DJT) with one of my former cronies who had already become private-island-rich, I lamented that I was torn because I would miss out on being invited to the Ambassador's residence in one of our mutual favorite countries. That individual did not end up getting an ambassadorship, but a few others of the same ilk did. I was not surprised to see the most odious of the bunch snag Austria.

And one last fun tidbit before I go. Back in the day in San Francisco, Kimberly Guilfoyle and Kamala Harris were both staples at parties hosted and frequented by Trump admin's Ambassador to Austria. Fascinating to see where everyone is 25 years later.

@mcr: Thanks for the link. I hadn't been following this development at all. Any time I see a proposal that permits "the potential to broaden the scope of investors that are able to purchase securities", particularly at initial offering time, I'm immediately wary.

Those who engineered this are thrilled for direct access to mom and pop without lockup period, all under the guise of fixing the alleged inefficiencies of ibank involvement. When ibanks oppose a rule, instinct of many is that the rule must be good because everyone resents the bankers. There are arguments once can make for reform of the traditional IPO process, but this “reform” does nothing for the investor or the company going public; just shifts the gains to early investors without scrutiny; I call this rule “Lockup periods are for chumps!”

I am hoping they will all take their ill-gotten gains and bring Galt's Gulch to fruition on Mars, with crypto as their currency. That would be true flight to the suburbs, as already foreseen/depicted by Elysium. Will we be talking about Elysium one day the way folks today are talking about Contagion? Some think so, and they will be happy to take Mom and Pop's money on the way out: https://cryptopress.network/elon-musk-talks-mars-monkey-brain-implants-and-bitcoin-in-clubhouse-interview/

In the interim, stay tuned for a Clubhouse public offering in the not-too-distant future, almost certainly via the direct listing route recently cleared by the SEC for raising new capital (as opposed to old rule which cleared way for sale of previously issued stock). The ramp-up has already started, and the window before new regs come into place is likely narrow, so look for IPO Roundhouse in the next 12-18 mos.

Sorry, Clubhouse IPO - Freudian slip.

or more appropriately, Clubhouse DLP (again, traditional IPO's are for chumps).

*** New thread created here ***

https://streeteasy.com/talk/discussion/46410-bidding-wars-in-the-suburbs-beyond-part-7

NYC is coming back.
The old restaurants and businesses won't, and you can blame our politicians for picking and choosimg winners and losers.
Going to liquor stores and Home Depot were the same as pre-covid. Dry cleaners and restaurants .... tough luck