Was thinking of buying UES, but going pencils down

Prices are sticky downwards.

Mouse, What did you find wrong with this one? Price has not really moved since 2009.
https://streeteasy.com/sale/1347110

300, not in an area conducive to 4/5/6 subway. If it was closer to 4/5/6 would have definitely looked at it as a remodel. 2700sq ft! manhattan mcmasion Did it trade in 2009?

Those who can buy a 3+BR in UES should abandon the subway forever, or at least in the next 10 years, for safety and cleanness reason

Mouse, Curious what you expect to pay per sq ft and how many square feet of space minimum. I think there are deals in post war 8 foot ceiling buildings but not sure what you would consider. Better deals in coops that condos but 4 bedroom apartments are mostly combined apartments with layout compromises.

What is wrong with this one?
https://streeteasy.com/building/the-diamond-house/10a

What 30 said, basically.

Historically, new buyers in down markets are always surprised that the markets aren't, for lack of a better phrasing, "more down." You have to remember that you're part of a cohort, and that, even though you're bright/shiny/aggressive/talented/lucky enough to have sprung into that cohort, you still have to deal with the other members of it.

So you're looking at the UES 4-BR market -- now is a good time to point out that, though I'm a broker, I don't sell that -- and you're saying, "huh, 200,000 people are dead, everyone Cuomo and I know has fled the city, and the numbers point to subway service being cut 40%, so why am I not getting a deal?"

and the answer is, lots of people in law and finance are having a tremendous year, and are optimistic about keeping their jobs. The stock market is up 25% year-over-year. So sellers in your cohort, who generally had deep pockets to begin with, don't necessarily see the need to capitulate.

I can't predict the future, but if I were facing the market you do, I'd probably rent for awhile.

ali r.
{upstairs realty}

The root cause of prices still being at near historic peak is due to the infinite QE.

+1 on 30yrs comment
+1 on Ali’s comment, and
+1 on Anton’s comment (and even though Anton doesn’t particularly like me, I give him credit for putting the QE on my radar before any other source did)

The Diamond House layout would work if the goal one of the bedrooms is a study. If there are three little mice and each needs a room, that doesn't work so well.

I strikes me (i) interest rates are propping up values and (ii) it does seem sellers have no need to capitulate. I think interest rates are going to be low for a while, but I still get nervous actually locking in an asset price that assumes one can borrow at 3% (vs. say 6%).. I think I can stomach that. The sellers not capitulating did throw me off. A few seller brokers basically know some units are way overpriced, have been listed for a year -- but sellers see no need to capitulate on pricing as their carrying cost are low (I guess cash owners or historical owners without mortgages)?

We did tour Diamond House. Was actually pretty cool, but the layout was not great for our needs. Liked the big common room, but not efficient use of space for a family (ideally would have 3 touchpoints for separate space... common vs. living vs. kitchen vs. outdoor -- this is 4 touchpoints but I realize cannot get all 4 with everything else we want, e.g. high ceilings, sunlight, good layout etc.)

One thing I am struggling with is a $/ft. For example, looking at 180 East 79th - it has a variety of units in similar condition but different lines. The units range from $1,300-$1700/ft. I know lower is better, but what kind of market results in such a wide range in the same buiding?

The other reason I struggle with $/ft is eyeballing photos, can't often tell why one unit goes for 1,100 and another 1,600. Does another 6' of ceiling really increase the price by 30% etc.?

mouse, I hope you are working with a good broker who can explain you the price differences. Some of the price differences are for a good reason (floor, exposure, layout, reno etc) and some are just made up which is not unique to the current market. From you comment it seems that you are looking for something unique (the way you want space to function including ceiling height, possibly outdoor space) and for that you have to pay up in below $4mm range. Of course, if you want to spend $10mm, you can probably get 20% lower than the peak prices. Also look at the Streeteasy condo index to see the decline in average apartment. There is a certainly a beta to the index the higher up you go in price per sq ft.

Mouse - I remember the first time I toured apartments in NYC 15 years ago, and all the awful shite I saw. I couldn't believe that owners of such slums demanded the prices they did. I learned that most apartments you'll see will be overpriced, not right, etc. If I listed an apartment today for sale or rent at half price, it would sell to the first person who sees it, and odds are you'd never see it. Good properties go fast; bad properties linger. Most of what's on the market is indeed overpriced, which is actually true of just about any market except those that are rapidly rising where price eventually comes up to meet the sh!te.

If you don't understand why prices are what they are, you're probably not knowledgeable enough to buy and need to see more properties, watch more properties actually sell, and ask more questions along the way. Then when you do find a great property, you'll act with confidence.

So my advice is to take your time and look at dozens or maybe a hundred places. Don't force it. If you find a worthwhile broker, consider yourself lucky. I experimented with a few brokers but eventually we got rid of the whole lot of them, bc they were just trying to get me to buy whatever overpriced junk their firm had listed at the time. We ended up finding a seller's broker who was very on-the-ball and gave us comfort in what we were buying, but the deal fell apart during the lockdown. Covid changed our view of the City vs Country, and we ended up buying a part-time residence outside NYC. Bottom line - you can buy here, you can buy there, you can buy now, you can buy later... just don't force it.

PS, remember that the vast majority of what's listed today will not sell any time soon. It's just BS inventory, clogging the system, people hoping to find a sucker. What's listed tells you more about where the market is NOT than where the market is.

I agree that you should only buy if you feel comfortable about what you are buying in both price and utility. There is nothing wrong in being a perma-bear and renting either.

I think George goes a little bit over the top, but for the most part I think he's offering you some very sound advice.

Keith Burkhardt
TBG

One last thing, subscribe to www. Urbandigs.com, this is a great place to begin your education regarding the New York City real estate market.

Given the above, it seems reasonable to get a second opinion on any housing price in NYC. If one is making a $1MM or $4MM or $10MM purchase, that's a big purchase. It seems reasonable to get a second opinion on value versus rely on any single datapoint/broker. How does one get these presumably more objective second opinions?

Same situation, Anonymouse. I went shopping 3 months ago with a $4.25mm budget. Requirements were UES but west of 3rd. Not really farther than 92nd. 3 bed. 2.5 bath. Didn’t find anything worth buying and the few properties that remotely interested me were priced 5pct off the previous high print with little room to negotiate. No thank you!

Same situation, Anonymouse. I went shopping 3 months ago with a $4.25mm budget. Requirements were UES but west of 3rd. Not really farther than 92nd. 3 bed. 2.5 bath. Didn’t find anything worth buying and the few properties that remotely interested me were priced 5pct off the previous high print with little room to negotiate. No thank you!

Same situation, Anonymouse. I went shopping 3 months ago with a $4.25mm budget. Requirements were UES but west of 3rd. Not really farther than 92nd. 3 bed. 2.5 bath. Didn’t find anything worth buying and the few properties that remotely interested me were priced 5pct off the previous high print with little room to negotiate. No thank you!

Same situation, Anonymouse. I went shopping 3 months ago with a $4.25mm budget. Requirements were UES but west of 3rd. Not really farther than 92nd. 3 bed. 2.5 bath. Didn’t find anything worth buying and the few properties that remotely interested me were priced 5pct off the previous high print with little room to negotiate. No thank you!

Same situation, Anonymouse. I went shopping 3 months ago with a $4.25mm budget. Requirements were UES but west of 3rd. Not really farther than 92nd. 3 bed. 2.5 bath. Didn’t find anything worth buying and the few properties that remotely interested me were priced 5pct off the previous high print with little room to negotiate. No thank you!

Same situation, Anonymouse. I went shopping 3 months ago with a $4.25mm budget. Requirements were UES but west of 3rd. Not really farther than 92nd. 3 bed. 2.5 bath. Didn’t find anything worth buying and the few properties that remotely interested me were priced 5pct off the previous high print with little room to negotiate. No thank you!

Same situation, Anonymouse. I went shopping 3 months ago with a $4.25mm budget. Requirements were UES but west of 3rd. Not really farther than 92nd. 3 bed. 2.5 bath. Didn’t find anything worth buying and the few properties that remotely interested me were priced 5pct off the previous high print with little room to negotiate. No thank you!

Mouse, There is no substitute for doing you own analysis and having a feel of the market before spending so much money. If you really like a property, no harm in hiring your own appraiser (cost $1000-$2000 or so) before signing a contract. Miller Samuel can do it. Bank appraisers typically will come out close to contract price as they do not want to ruin a deal.

Sherlock, The diamond house property I posted above seems more than 15% of the high comparable print. How much down do you think it is?

And there are plenty of coops on park which are at least 20% off the high prints.

Mouse, a year ago the market offered you rent at X and buy at Y. You chose X. Now, X is 20% off and Y is 5% off. What changed, and why the angst? You cannot control the market, you can only control the actions you take in response.

Nada, Gentle......

Except may be with George who can handle whatever is thrown at him.

I'm not sure about this SherlockGeorge character. I'm named after the monkey of children's book fame. What about this other George?

For second opinions, a good appraisal by someone highly experienced in the exact class of apartment can be useful. I learned a lot from how the appraisers looked at the place I bought. But the appraiser only tells you where the market was. They can't give a sense of where the market is going and why, other than the standard check boxes on the first page about whether inventory is going up or down.

For me in Nowhere, it was very helpful to have the opinion of someone who's in the flipping business there. He gave me a good sense of what trades easily and what doesn't. Also I soaked up every market report I could, especially those that described individual neighborhoods and why one street is better than the next street over.

Crap, 300. I thought I was being gentle!

It seems to me that mouse thinks the market not behaving “reasonably” in his or her view, and that upsets him/her. I’m just suggesting the market will be what the market will be, and that arguing with it is a futile endeavor. It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. In fact, it’s just like the Terminator:

Listen. And understand. That terminator is out there. It can't be bargained with. It can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead.

Except unlike the terminator, even once you are dead, the market will continue.

I am enjoying the conversation. That is the debate, to lock in a 2YR lease elsewhere at the lower rates and wait it out. We have rented our entire life everywhere we have lived. Thought now was the time to buy, but our expectations haven't been matched by the type of inventory we are seeing. I have come up with a # we are willing to pay for a unit, which is much lower than the ask; am going to hire Miller Samuel to see if they can appraise it and see how far off I am. It is a real friction cost, but in the contest of the dollars at risk, this is a valuable information gathering exercise for me, for (i) where is another datapoint on the market versus an ask, and (ii) how good was my own price estimate. Some should offer this as a service to NYC buyers... a 5 pack of informal appraisals for $2,000 or something. I have to think there is a market for this. It would be industry leading as well. Brand it like the "CarFax" so it becomes an industry datapoint that every buyer 'must have'. May even stop some of these crazy outlier asking prices from clogging the market.

mouse, A good broker should be able to give you the comps for a few properties you are serious about without sales pressure. They gotta earn their commission.

Mouse, where is the difference between what you’re willing to pay and the asking prices coming from? Have you seen anything transact at a price you’re willing to pay? I think an appraiser can only tell you where transactions have occurred, but there may still be a sizable gap between that and what you’re willing to pay.

That is exactly the question I had.
Mouse, Will you please post a couple of listing which interest you and the price you are willing to pay?

Anonymouse,

the problem with your Carfax idea is that apartments (especially as you get into higher price points) aren't subsitutable (is that a word) enough for one another that there's necessarily one absolute value -- there tends to be a range. There were 336K Toyota Camrys sold In America last year, but only a fraction of that many UES co-ops.

Certainly a good buyer's broker ought to be able to give you an idea of whether your X that you want to pay for a given property will fly or not. But I, like nada, question whether you want to bother to find that person or pay an appraiser -- in this market, unless you are emotionally driven to buy (which is perfectly fine) you should probably rent.

And nada, IMHO you were being gentle.

Yes. Appraisal for NYC condos is complicated. A good appraisal will cost at least $1000 at lower price points. At $3mm range, the comps are more difficult probably min $1500. Also, as Nada said, appraiser can only tell you relative valuations. But a major part of buyer's broker is providing good comps. There is a naturally fair bit of administrative work. So get rid of your broker if you are not getting this.

I get it. mouse is looking at a huge first time investment. Having cold feet is natural.

Coming up with a estimated valuation for property in the present moment is not rocket science. I'm sure you're capable of doing it if you're able to afford a 4m+ apartment. All brokers and for that matter, appraisers essentially are looking at recently sold comparable sales and then making adjustments based on material differentials in the units being compared. Appraisers will also note what type of Market we're currently in, for example, stable, falling or rising. Ideally you find similar sold comps within the subject property, especially for a co-op. I've looked at hundreds of appraisal reports, including ones from Miller Samuel, there's no magic there. And in 30+ years of doing this I've had two apartments not appraise.

What you're trying to do is determine what the appropriate discount is based on a pandemic, where this discount has not perhaps fully materialized in your opinion. So the easy solution is waiting 6+ months, and see what the data tells you.

After the financial crisis if you read through Streeteasy threads of the time, most posters thought the market would continue to crater. With hindsight we now know it didn't, it did the opposite. What's going to happen 6 months out from today, I wish I knew with certainty, then I would be very very wealthy.

As someone who's been renting for many many years, sounds like that suits you just fine. The buy/rental equation hasn't suddenly tilted in favor of buying, I think that's pretty clear. Quite frankly if you're not the type of person who wants to own the home they live in, it's quite a good time to be a renter, empirically speaking.

Anyway, best of luck!

Keith

@multicityresident, QE I/II/III starting 2009 pushed the NYC RE prices to record highs one after another, I remembered many people had already discussed it on this forum, I am not the first one for sure. But guess people are bored of talking about it any more, because the QE already becomes unlimited and endless.

I would also recommend that you find a broker with a depth of experience in NYC through its various phases. We had an agent in DC in 2006 who told us that if we wanted to buy a certain house that she showed us at the price that was the bottom line of the seller, she did not want to represent us because (1) she did not believe it would be our forever home; (2) she wanted us to come back to her for the next transaction, which she said we would not do whenever the realization set in that we had way overpaid for the house; (3) she would be embarrassed among a certain group of brokers in the city that she had let her client pay the amount we were willing to pay for the house.

She was right on all fronts. We bought a different house that she found for us months after we had actually given up (this was in 2006, and she felt DC had gone crazy with the prices and there was no way that whatever was going on would endure). She definitely earned her commission and reinforced her reputation in our circle of friends.

She has since retired, but we did use her to buy our current house in DC (2010); she had some hesitation because it is a unique property, but she had gotten to know us well enough that she actually believed that it would be our forever house (most likely because it was the first house that my husband said he wanted to be his forever house).

As for the previous house she found for us, we sold it to friends who loved it without a broker in 2010 and came out marginally ahead. The house she put her foot down that we not buy in 2006 traded in 2010 as well, but at a price that was 20% below what we had been willing to pay in 2006 (and 20% below what the house had actually sold for in 2006.

Long way of saying that there are excellent agents out there who are worth every penny they collect in commission and then some. Our DC agent came to us recommended by another friend whose recommendation we value highly in all matters because he is one of those people who always brings more research and brain power to any transaction than we ever would. The friend was in our wedding, and our life plan was just to always buy the house next door to whatever he was buying, but then he up and moved to Chicago, so we had to come up with Plan B, which was use his real estate agent.

@Anton - Yes, I recall all the QE discussions from earlier and was familiar with its role after the crisis in 2008, but you were had been yelling about it more recently on here well before "infinite QE" set in - something along the lines of how they were continuing it under the radar and you found it criminal. Then in March 2020 the "inifinite QE" was all over the news; if I recall, you had been harping about it for many months before the pandemic.

As for old indepth discussions of QE, one of the best is this one, which you will note I tried to revive at the beginning of the pandemic: https://streeteasy.com/talk/discussion/5195-cramer-says-to-buy-gold?page=2

I tried to revive that discussion at the end of the second week of March; by the third week of March, the media was all over "inifinte QE." And, what a shock: https://www.wsj.com/articles/let-the-fed-administer-an-antiviral-shot-11584314083

@mcr I don't think you give yourself enough credit. A simple comparison of price per square foot should have sorted all of that out for you, relatively quickly.

Understanding derivatives? Mind blown. Pricing real estate? Just some basic common sense and math skills. a good broker should also be able to point out any issues that you may have missed or may not take issue with, however will greatly limit your buyer pool when it's time for you to sell in the future. That's said, I view a home as 50% emotional purchase, and sometimes buyers will move forward with something even if advised there's a greatly diminished buyer pool for this particular type of property.

However I do absolutely agree, there are plenty of good agents out there and most buyers are best served with a good team. This should include an attorney, banker and where necessary home inspector/engineer.

"I view a home as 50% emotional purchase,"
Therein lies the problem for me; I am not even close to rational when it comes to my "home." I think for me the purchase is 90% emotional, so I don't overly bother with comps. Because of my very quirky preferences, there are never comps for what I like.

Ha! Glad you're enjoying life and enjoying your homes!

The cheap way of getting an appraisal is to post the link to the property here and crowdfund the opinions. Why spend $1500 when StreetEasy is faster and just as accurate, my perma-bear comments notwithstanding.

If I remember correctly with the Miller Samuel appraisal reports, they don't actually give you a number. Basically just pass/fail. Perhaps that's just for the residential / bank appraisals. I guess as an individual, they would provide you with an actual number.

"The cheap way of getting an appraisal is to post the link to the property here and crowdfund the opinions. Why spend $1500 when StreetEasy is faster and just as accurate, my perma-bear comments notwithstanding."

I think Streeteasy discussion forum is more accurate. The seasoned experts on here have guided us through every phase of our NYC real estate existence (renting when we first arrived, buying few years later, renovating, navigating building management, selling first apartment, buying again and renovating again.) The amount of knowledge that these folks are willing to share just for the love of real estate is an incredible resource.

" Some should offer this as a service to NYC buyers... a 5 pack of informal appraisals for $2,000 or something. I have to think there is a market for this. "

Mouse -- This is a form of what a *good* buyer's broker does. Which, in addition to all advice noted above, you clearly need. An unconflicted one, representing only you. Do your own research, find places, maybe take a preliminary look, then run them by your broker to see what they think in terms of condition, comps, the building, etc. They should know your price range, personal financial details, and enough of your hopes, dreams, and desires to understand the reasons for your timelines for ownership (live there till you die, or till the kids are through school and you can go to Florida).

When I was looking, I used a close friend who has been in the NYC appraisal & brokerage business for 20+ years. Knew astoundingly detailed info about virtually every building on the UES and their boards. Told me the pros and cons of the places I had found looking on SE, rejected one outright (knew of board and building problems that I wouldn't have detected), and went with me to view a number of units and pointed out details of the neighborhood I wouldn't have known (I've lived in NY 30+ years, but UES was new to me as a place to live). Terrific help throughout the entire process, worth every penny.

I am curious to tap the knowledge on this board. Going to see a a dozen more units next week, and after that will take stock and reflect. Curious to hear the crowd's opinion on what 'fair relative value' would be for these 3 units:

https://streeteasy.com/building/richmond-condominium/17d
Condo (!). We would renovate this unit. Ideally this would be priced like a gut reno (whatever that level should be?) and redo it from scratch. But seller does not need to ask that price and we would approach this as a refresh (redo baths, redo/open kitchen, install new floors and convert from a 4BR into a flex 4BR by opening up a wall). Been on market a few months. What is fair value for a gut reno $/ft, and what is fair value for its reasonable condition $/ft?

https://streeteasy.com/building/180-east-79-street-new_york/14g
Seller asks $1700/ft when other units in building (different lines/lower floor) are $1300-1350/ft with a bit lower mainteance. Its a large/good floorplan with awesome kitchen, but little light (north exposure, non-clearing, photos are overexposed and lights are on) and otherwise not differentiated from other units that ask a lot less $/ft (e.g. 11E, 7D). Seller started by asking $1900/ft and has been on market/vacant for 1.5 years! Is it just price (and if so what is right price) or something else (e.g. monthlies?)

https://streeteasy.com/building/the-gotham-170-east-87-street-new_york/w21c
Out of price range, but just curious what others think regarding price. Would need more $ to rework the layout some but not major. Been on market since June 2020. If $4.5 isn't the right price, what is?

Do the photos of the Richmond accurately reflect its condition? If that's your idea of a gut job, maybe look at new construction instead. I wouldn't do anything more than cosmetic changes like the bathroom countertops.

The photos make it look better than they are. But generally for any unit we look at, we would look to put wood floors everywhere, update the bathrooms, have an open kitchen and install central air. Maybe we would blink when it comes time to actually move on something (e.g., just replace the carpets), give up on central air etc.

But ignoring my personal preferences, is that unit at the Richmond priced correctly in your eyes? And if not, what would be?

Hmm. Working brokers have to be very careful commenting on other people's listings, because, y'know, you wouldn't want someone to do it to you.

That said, it's a tiny bit tough to figure out what you like because your three listings are kind of all over the map: two condos and a 50% down co-op? An apartment with central air, one that doesn't appear to have it, and one that has it in ... half the apartment?

However, given that you do seem to be fond of outdoor space, I like the combo at https://streeteasy.com/building/230-east-73-street-new_york/12ab, though I realize it might drive you crazy that the window frames don't match.

ali r.

Installing true central air in a condo is a major surgery since you're opening up wall and ceilings, and many buildings simply won't allow it. Also beware that window quality varies greatly - after 25 years, they may not be well sealed against cold and noise from outside. I saw an '80s condo where some windows had literally settled in by an inch, and the gap at the top was stuffed with insulation.

If you're just doing countertops, floors, and a kitchen opening, that's cosmetic, not a gut. Still, if you hate PTACs (and who doesn't?), you may just be better off going new construction or low-balling on an estate sale that you truly would gut. For some people (maybe even me), the Richmond unit is move-in ready. Also beware this route if you've not had someone tell you horror stories on the pains of renovating apartments in NYC.

As for the value, I'd put it in the lower-middle 3's, maybe $3.25m - but remember I'm a perma-bear. What makes me uncomfortable in such a price estimate is the unit downstairs (which lacks the terrace and light) but which is being offered at its 2005 price (and with a 2005 kitchen), whereas this unit is asking $1 million over its 2011 price. Unless they did a great reno in 2012 (and maybe they did - looks like a 2012 floor in the main room), I don't see why such a run-up is justified. And if they did a good reno less than 10 years ago, maybe it's not right for you if you're then going to tear it up.

https://streeteasy.com/building/richmond-condominium/10g

https://streeteasy.com/building/230-east-73-street-new_york/12ab
We had looked at this one at some point a few weeks ago. Asked my partner if taking a 2nd look made sense, but a pass. Didn't get the emotional response on that one. Off memory I think the two units they combined weren't super seamless. I liked kitchen but partner said it was small. no HVAC or some issue. Given partner wanted to pass, I didn't press more.

https://streeteasy.com/building/richmond-condominium/10g
Very interesting. Hasn't sold for a long time at 1500/ft, which I assume means clearing price is 1400/ft (just a random $100/ft discount)? So you apply that $/ft baseline to the larger square footage of 11g and come up with $3.25MM + any increase for any quality reno from the 2012 work you implied they did?

I wish there was a way to edit a post. So its probably under 1400/ft, but you adjust for quality of reno + the outdoor space.

Mouse - Basically, yes. If I sharpened my pencil, maybe I'd refine the number, but first I'd start out by asking the seller's broker how "realistic" the seller is, whether they actually want to sell, what kind of interest the unit has received, whether they've turned down other offers, etc. A skilled broker will answer in a way that guides you to a number that the seller would accept, then you sharpen your pencil and see if you can justify that number looking at other ways of spending $3-4 million.

I quite like that 230 E 73rd listing, but at $4m, I start to look at townhouses rather than condos or coops, especially if the condo or coop is a low-amenity building. There's not a lot of great TH inventory at $4m, but occasionally you find something, the taxes can be lower, and you're not paying for a bunch of staff that you don't need. Also it becomes easier to do your own AC via a mini split system in the back yard.

BTW, as someone will point out, we blew our wad this summer on a weekend house in Nowhere, USA, so at this point it's all academic for me.

Richmond 10G in the fair range and is renovated. If you plan to do anything more than pure decorative very minor to it, it is not the place for you. You can always offer 5-10% lower and take it from there.

Any thoughts on the other two units? I appreciate this perspective walking through it all!

17D does not seem to need gut reno. Just floors. It wouldn't work for you as someone, who only wants to change the floors may buy it at a much higher price vs you. Gut reno at least$300k plus carry plus trouble.

180 East 79th, take 15% off assuming you like it as it is.

170 East 87th. Why bother? 20% lower as you can get a brand new condo under $2k per sq ft.

Sorry, I didn't factor in terraces. Perhaps 10-15% lower.

What 300 said. The other two units didn't impress me much. I might wait and see what comes up at the Brompton and try to pay the seller a 2009 price there. Little if any real reno needed in that building.

Btw, google "cityrealty" and the name of the building to get useful reviews of various buildings including sometimes gossip from brokers. This website is great to avoid "meh" buildings.

Thank you all for the feedback! Just saved me a few thousand in appraiser fees :) Jokes aside, this was all interesting. The thoughts on 201 E 80th seem spot on, that I am not the ideal buyer of that unit. Did not think about 170 East 87th in that way vs. new condo, and that's 100% right... would rather be in condo than co-op.

Two more questions:
1) Why is 15% the right haircut to 180 E 79th (vs. 10% or 20%?).
2) Why are these units all all so special to be $1,500-$1600/ft + monthly maintenance fees of $5K+? This is just the cost of wanting to live on the UES near schools? Do these buildings have some other draw to it that I just don't appreciate, versus say Murray Hill? I am aware this is an open ended ambiguous question... I just assumed before starting this process that the UES would be cheaper generally.. and its definitely not cheaper with maintenance charges running $6K/month on average for the units I identified for my next real estate tour. Is the UES mispriced, and if not, are schools or some other reason driving the demand?

It’s your requirement for 4 bedrooms which drives the price spike. If you could accept 3 bedrooms you’d have a lot more to think desirable

mouse,
Real estate trading prices are not that precise. If there happen to be two buyers who want it 5% may be a rounding error. Only way you will find out is bidding. You can low ball and then come up once you get fk off from the selling broker. If they have other buyers, they may not bother calling you back.

UES has schools, parks, good housing stock, and residential feel vs Murray Hill with its tunnel traffic. It is also an established family hood for a long time.

Nicely finished condo at $1500 is a good deal on UES. Then there are variations based on floors, light, building, ceiling height. Generally, you look at the previous trades in the same building or substantially similar buildings and adjust for current market conditions.

As the polar opposite of a UES apt buyer, I gotta say I enjoyed & have been impressed by the knowledge shared on this thread. Especially from George.

I’m not sure Anonymouse is real but rather an experimental character introduced by a psychologist to see how a normally fractious group can be tamed by the introduction of a new cute character (a mouse!) to be taken under the wings of all. Classic move from children’s books. I mean, has anyone ever witnessed such civility on a thread this long?

Mouse, you have put a lot of weight on your housing search by being a first-time buyer with a fairly nice budget. In some ways, first-time buyers coming in at a lower price point have an easier time because a) they're more constrained and b) they don't think "dagnabit, for what I'm spending this ought to approach perfection."

So you're in the corner a little bit -- but think about the problem at a remove, if you can. One way to think about your search is to assume that you're NOT unique in your needs and desires. (In the words of Barbara Corcoran, "everybody wants what everybody wants").

So what have others, facing the market you're facing, done? In other words, what has sold in the $3-$4.5 million price range recently? A quick search on a not-entirely inclusive database shows 13 units moved in the last 90 days on the Upper East Side (I'm talking about a balance of Solds and Contracts).

Of those, two are in locations where it sounds like you wouldn't want to be (on in Lenox Hill, one on East End). One is a nice new condo east of Second; two have monthlies that seem troublesomely high; two are in co-ops where board approval seems far from a slam dunk; and four are combos. A combo might really be the way for you to go here; I don't know how you've felt about the Classic Sevens you've already seen.

Housing stock seems generally better for you in Carnegie Hill, but you won't get outdoor space. Something that checks all the boxes for you is rare, and, to the extent that it exists, is going to cost six million dollars. I am happy to take this to a side conversation and walk you through this in more detail, but that's roughly the housing picture at this moment, if you want to purchase.

Your other options are to buy in another neighborhood, or to rent. If you give up on outdoor space there's a four-bedroom at the Brompton that I'm sure would be lovely. If you must have outdoor space, you are probably in the zone where you can rent a townhouse.

ali r.
upstairs realty

Mouse, Are you working with a broker? If not, get one. There are a couple on this thread.

Also if you are looking at May/June/July contracts, you may have to pay up a little as there were some low balls which got accepted that time.

I also had my eye on that Brompton unit.

https://streeteasy.com/sale/1468398

I'd start at $4m and see where it goes.

George, Didn’t you find the living/dining space a little small for a 4 bed room 4.5 baths? It is almost they needed a library/family room and 25 percent bigger dining area.

My only problem with the kitchen is the lack of doors. I prefer functional spaces to be compartmentalized. But these are the compromises one makes in NYC spending only $1m per bedroom.

I don’t get the floor plan either, but then again I don’t have 4 kids. Even if I did, I’d prefer to Brady Bunch them into 2 rooms with 1 shared bathroom. OK, fine I’ll give them 2 bathrooms if I’m feeling generous.

But do you really want 4.5 bathrooms in a 2400 sq ft apt? If mommy & daddy gotta share a bedroom & bathroom after shelling out $4.5M, shouldn’t the runts?

George & mouse, please illuminate...

There's so much inventory right now on the Upper East side, it makes your head spin.

I've said before that I believe in separate cages. The real question is where is the nanny's room. If I was buying on UES, I'd be looking for a condo with 3br and a nanny's room. But I'm not.

Can’t you just put the nanny in one of the 4 bedrooms?

Thank you all for the continued perspective! I do have a broker and think I saw the Bronfman unit at one point early on. I remember thinking it was a good unit with high ceilings and being surprised "this is only what $4.5MM gets you". And then having a discussion with my partner on the cab back, looking at the $15MM townhouses and wondering if someone dropping that coin thinks the same thing. Regarding that unit, its out of our price range and we didn't love it. Perhaps now we can better appreciate it, but at the time we felt iit was sterile/lacked character, the living area could be bigger, and there were so many bathrooms (channeling Oprah: YOU get a bathroom! YOU get a bathroom! YOU get a bathroom! YOU get a bathroom!). How big is a bathroom? 200 sqft? That's a lot of bathroom at $1800/ft.

I love the idea of seeing what has sold over the past few months and asking "would I have bought that"?

One listing early we liked but went under contract (although it does not say it) is https://streeteasy.com/building/125-east-74-street-new_york/89a. That said, early on I thought it was overpriced (we never saw it). Figured $8k/month maintenance was $3K above what we saw elsewhere, so $36K year at a 3-4% cap rate = $1MM higher debt on the unit. I.E. they were asking $3.5MM and its more like $4.5MM with the high maintenance, so like $2,000/ft adjusted for the high maintenance? Even buying it for $3MM, well below the $3.5MM ask would be $1740/ft. Which confused me as being high generally and high for a pandemic (but maybe you guys think that's fair price, I don't now).

It also raises the idea that these low rates are making high maintenance co-ops more expensive when you capitalize the maintenance expenses at today's really low rates. but perhaps that's ill conceived as the monthly expenses just be higher in a higher rate environment. Hopefully these co-ops have refinanced their debt in 2012-13 and again today.

I hope everyone had a Happy Thanksgiving! Now back to the salt mines...

I was arguing for renting in the Brompton, not buying... but I'm confused about 125 East 74th. My system shows it was marked as active as of Monday. Did it *just* go into contract?

ali r.

125 e 74th is a great example of a "meh" building. It's really hard to see anything distinguishing that building in a positive way from any other nearby building. Only 28 units plus a full staff means you're dividing the cost of the staff by a small denominator. Some people like that and will pay more for it, so again it might not be the building for you.

Agree. There is clearly a premium to be paid for full service small buildings. They are far more peaceful.

One listing early we liked but went under contract (although it does not say it) is https://streeteasy.com/building/125-east-74-street-new_york/89a. That said, early on I thought it was overpriced (we never saw it). Figured $8k/month maintenance

-8k main is craazy, that would have stopped me from even looking at it.

That's another reason that we were going the TH route. Have a look at this place:

124 EAST 93 STREET, Manhattan, NY
https://streeteasy.com/sale/1503761

Assume you pay full ask, put down 1.5m, and mortgage the rest at 2.6%. Monthly payment is less than $17k.

That's basically the same payment as at 125 E 74th if you could also put down 1.5m there, which you can't since it's a 50% down coop. The TH gives you twice the house and a yard. Yes, you do your own maintenance and shovel your own snow, but to me it's absolutely worth the trade.

@George - The key is being comfortable/able to do your own maintenance. Many in the price bracket are not prepared/dont have time/don’t have skill set to handle that such that an added cost is getting a professional property manager dedicated to maintaining the property. If one has an infrastructure in NYC that can assist with that aspect (say family members who are real estate professionals in NYC), one has greater options than most do. Mr. MCR would actually be open to the townhouse option, but I have zero interest in managing the property manager that we would need to manage the regular plumbing, HVAC, roofing, electric, cable, other miscellaneous infrastructure maintenance that is part and parcel of owning a single family home. You are fortunate that you have the time/skill set/infrastructure that makes the townhouse a viable option for you.

And more fortunate still is he who is happy renting indefinitely, because as inonada’s existence demonstrates, at the high end (which is where anyone considering a $5M TH is), you get the most bang for your buck renting. Unfortunately for those of us who are limited in skill set (i.e., can’t handle maintainence ourselves) or limited by pathological irrationality (i.e., must have as much control over home as possible - no landlord for me!), we are stuck competing against each other for the lesser forms of housing in NYC.

As everyone knows, we opted for the full-service boutique coop, which is lovely and peaceful, and we signed up willing to pay the premium associated with that. Unfortunately for us, I believe fewer and fewer such buildings are attracting the wallets necessary to sustain them. I love our building as it has historically been, but I am resigned to its evolving into something else that would not have been my first choice.

I know plenty of ppl who own single family homes in Manhattan and the B&T territories; the main difference in Manhattan is tradesmen doubling their bill to come into the city, but otherwise there are literally a million such properties in NYC and a million people to maintain them. And if I pay a lawyer $500 an hour, why should I blink if an architect charges $250 and a plumber $100? I'm not convinced that there's much more magic to a SFH here than elsewhere, aside from expecting several city fines a year. If you can pick up the phone to the super, you can pick up the phone to the boiler inspector, roof sealer, plumber, etc. If you can pay $6000 in maintenance on a condo, you can pay a $600 plumber's bill.

@George - Good luck with that. I know from personal experience that managing tradesman for an extensive property is incredibly time consuming, good help is hard to find, and managing a professional property manager also takes time and work.

And everything is harder in NY; reservation wage for tradesman is generally higher than $600 in Manhattan.

And everything is harder in NY; reservation wage for tradesman is generally higher than $600 in Manhattan.

What is the apeal of "full service" doormen, especially in a building with less people. Do some doorment buildings not accept packages or kill waterbugs? What other services does one get?

Porters are amazing; they carry everything up and keep the building spotless 24/7. Your suitcases, groceries, whatever brought to your apartment; trash and dirt do not last 30 minutes before they disappear into magical abyss. Our building never puts trash bags on the street but rather has them in receptacles they carry out after everyone has gone to sleep on trash removal eves. Sidewalk in front of building is always spotless and plants in boxes out front are beautifully watered. Walk down any street where you know the mix and note the difference between those buildings with part-time lean staff and those with full service dedicated staff. Boutique building with professional staff is really lovely.