Proof of Vaccination Now Required for Showings

Haven't heard much about this.
When does it go into effect ?

Hi Admin,

The mandate went into effect on Monday December 27th .

Does proof of vaccination mean booster shots?

https://www.natlawreview.com/article/nyc-releases-guidance-private-employers-new-vaccine-mandate

So what's everybody's thoughts regarding this pretty intense wave of omnicron? Thankfully it seems fairly mild, especially for those who are fully vaccinated /Boosted. I probably know a dozen people that have it.

We're out of the country, many people are concerned, however, doesn't seem to be slowing anyone down. At least not until they get sick. We're taking all the same precautions we did before traveling. I was supposed to visit friends in Zurich, unfortunately the whole family has it. I was happy to hear they're all doing well, no worse than a bad cold as far as symptoms go.

I think this is definitely going to put the brakes on real estate sales, at least in the near term. Most people in the business enjoyed a record year in 2021, I think 2022 will be much different. How different is hard to say.

Keith Burkhardt
TBG

Feels like early 2020 again when many people downplayed covid 19 as being just a bad flu, let their guards down and look what happened. There’s still so little that we know about the long term consequences of getting this virus especially the latest omicron variant, only time will tell the true extent of damage to the human body. Think everyone still needs to be really careful despite the mild symptoms. Better to play it safe now vs having regrets later on in life

For a few weeks now, I’ve been saying “this is how pandemics end” with the arrival of Omicron. The early data from South Africa was showing little movement in hospitalizations / deaths despite the massive spike in infections. The data since then has only confirmed the mildness further. I also speculated that with its 50 mutations on the spike protein, this more virulent / less lethal version is going to block out the others. It’s more effective than the rest in getting a foothold, and once it does the antibodies left from the mass of mutations necessary for “more effective” are there to block the others. I think we are now seeing scientific reports about how Omicron may give immunity against Delta.

My suggestion to people, at the beginning and now, is to take a cursory look at past pandemics. They all take a 2-3 years to play out. In earlier eras (e.g., 500 years ago), the ones that went global sometimes took longer because travel was slower. So to those who thought this would be over in 2 months, that’s what I said. And to those who think it’ll be a decade or forever, same thing. This time is not different. What happened to the virus / antibodies / etc. last time around? This game has been going on for 700 million years.

So, I think we are looking at the end game here. Omicron will sweep over the entire population in short order, bringing widespread (temporary) immunity and a much smaller path of destruction. In a year, my guess is that we’re back to normal: not wearing masks, not talking about COVID.

On a personal level, I’ve done a 180 w.r.t. COVID. I was not a particularly high-risk individual, healthy as a horse, but I played it pretty cautiously even after vaccination. E.g., no indoor dining ever, and I’d modulate my willingness to take risks (e.g., outdoor dining) with infection counts. My wife & I ended up getting exposed a couple of months ago by a 4yo kid. Definitive exposure, kid crawling over us for a couple of days. The parents had gotten COVID in March 2020, but apparently the antibodies didn’t stick with the kid. Kid never had symptoms, only tested positive.

We tested on day 5 (per CDC), negative. Had a booster appt on day 6, so tested again negative. Had dinner rez with friends on day 7, so tested again out of an abundance of caution. Wife came back positive! She ended up with a very mild case (mild cold like, with loss of smell). She suggested that she isolate from me, but I said I believed in science. My antibodies were in full force after the exposure to the kid (I felt quasi-symptoms that never took hold), so I was going to kill them off faster than I could breathe them in. So despite sleeping next to each other 8 hours a day, etc., I never tested positive on daily tests.

After that, we visited elder family so we kept a low profile. But beyond that, I’ve done a 180 and actively seek exposure to keep the antibodies fresh and the immunity rolling. I figure that between two vaccinations, the additional dose from the kid, the additional dose from the booster, and the prolonged dose from my wife, my antibodies are as strong as they’re ever going to be. So better keep the immunity going.

Omicron led me to reconsider very briefly. Once it became apparent that the outcomes were vastly more mild, I figured my choices were to either face it with giant loads of less-effective antibodies & decently-effective t-cells, or wait ~6 months for an Omicron booster and face it with a lot less but more-effective antibodies. I don’t think anyone will get through the without facing Omicron at some point. Since I proved to not be even a “getter” against Delta with 7-month-old diminished antibodies, much less being hospitalized or dying, I figured I had just a good a shot against it now as after waiting for a Omicron booster. And if I was wrong, the downside risk seemed minimal: I don’t see any elderly family, etc.

So even when I could see rates headed to ~1% of population contagious, I went out: indoor dining, art show, etc. Even nowadays at ~4% of population contagious, I’m going out: indoor dining, crammed elevator to tourist destinations in tall buildings, etc. I think/hope I’ve been Omicron-ed at this point and my antibodies held, but who knows for sure.

@inonada - agreed, its basically playing out as a typical 2-3 year cycle.

I think Omicron pushes out whatever "endgame" that corporate America thought was already here, by another quarter, but maybe solidifies it more? Hard to say. In theory Omicron spike is exponential growth and should see exponential drop-off post peak (maybe 2-3 more weeks). However, in each previous spike we've seen the cases drop off slower than they grew, and usually level out at a higher "new normal", so who knows. New York positivity rates near 30% at the moment which is crazy.

Hospital capacity is about the same as last winter's peak as Omicron is about 1/4x as likely to put you in hospital as regular/delta, but there are already 4x as many cases as last winter peak so.. it kind of cancels out. Given the growth maybe we will peak at 10x the cases of last winter peak, but there are clearly already testing capacity limitations so positivity rates are going to be more of a guide.

Bull case seems to be that cases go up until say MLK weekend and then finally drop down to October levels by early March. Bear case is 4-6 more weeks of growth, return to reasonable case levels some time out in April/May.

All the firms that were pushing Jan 2022 RTTO are now pushing back weeks/months or indeterminate. Some firms that had previously mandated RTTO in 2021 sent everyone home in December and the return date is being pushed out.

So the battle between employers & employees has been delayed again. So far as I can tell, even whatever target state is (roughly 60% in-office for banks&funds) seems unlikely to kick in even by March.

Maybe we see some soft RTTOs in spring with "hard RTTO" by summer?

Anecdotally a lot of friends in the industry had holiday super spreader work events & so their firms have become a lot more conservative again. As recently as a week ago my HR reminded me that while I can allow a new hire to come to the office, I can not order them to. Despite some of the legal waivers passed by Congress, banks&funds do not want to lose their employees to mass resignations, nor get sued by them due to illness.

The few places that seem to be fairly successful in their RTTO have vaccine mandates, common areas masking, and either mandated testing or free rapid tests in-office. Some of the firms trying to have it both ways forcing employees in but not providing a safe environment to do so are facing a lot of backlash.

In terms of personal behavior I'm doing the same as ever - no indoor dining, indoor masking, boosted in November and will be in line for the 4th shot in 3-6 months or whatever it turns out to be. Number of friends who had omicron or a household exposure & therefore a holiday quarantine is something like 30% of our friends group.

Maybe the new normal for a few years will be that in coastal blue cities we can all live pretty normal lives in Spring/Summer into Fall and then need to take precautions in Winter re: masking/reduced indoor capacity/office closures/etc. You see in many cities in East Asia there is substantial masking in Fall/Winter in the post-SARS era, going on more than a decade now.

First, regards to Mrs. Nada, and New Year's wishes for good health and happiness for both her and you.

Second, how does one know what percentage of the population is contagious? We have new cases per 100K data from healthcare tests, but aren't there shadow cases? People home test, and get home-test positives and negatives, but I don't see where those go into the reported data stream.

Third, how do you know if Covid spreading? Kinsa Health Weather has predicting "falling" for New York County for the past week, even as their per 100K numbers zoomed steadily upward. NOW they're saying "spreading rapidly" ... but umm, since the numbers were marching upward, wouldn't that also have been true a week ago?

I have, AFAIK, not gotten any version of Covid, and I'm in the belly of the beast that is a New York City public school pretty steadily for my volunteer work, and I also take the subways (where there are always one or two unmasked people) pretty steadily for my job.

But since Thanksgiving, I've done the 180 of being cautious about everything else... I just gave my landlord my Broadway tickets because I wouldn't go to a show with these community numbers.

Fourth, it's not about *you* and your immunity/nonimmunity (much as we here in the SE community are fond of you.) It's about the multiplied, ripple effect through the larger community, specifically whether our healthcare system can stay up and running or not. When my friend the doctor says I can go out, I go out. Right now she says stay home, so (with the exception of work and grocery shopping) we're staying home. Hopefully in two weeks the outlook is better.

ali r.

>> Anecdotally a lot of friends in the industry had holiday super spreader work events & so their firms have become a lot more conservative again.

This just seems silly. The writing was on the wall the first week of Dec w.r.t. what was going to happen with Omicron. The fact that companies plowed forward with their holiday events seems particularly short-sighted.

>> Number of friends who had omicron or a household exposure & therefore a holiday quarantine is something like 30% of our friends group.

What surprises me is that for the most part, it caught people by surprise that they would continue their behavior but then get sick. Or the Dec rush to get a booster. What were you waiting for?

FP, I believe reacting to data is the right approach. So the fact that you changed your behavior seems right. I would have done the same in your shoes, probably fine to ground even harder than you have. No need to be on the front lines in a surge.

>> Second, how does one know what percentage of the population is contagious?
Basic math and estimation? 8K new cases per day reported in Manhattan, 4-5 day contagious periods => 40K contagious. That’s 2.5% of 1.6M population. Assume 2-3x due to undercounting, asymptotic cases => 7.5%. Assume half stay home because they are not irresponsible (“gee, I have the sniffles but it’s probably just a cold”) but plenty are asymptomatic or lack basic sense => 4%. Adjust however you want to adjust, but there’s no getting around the general idea that one-ish person on your subway car is contagious at the moment.

>> Fourth, it's not about *you* and your immunity/nonimmunity. It's about the multiplied, ripple effect through the larger community, specifically whether our healthcare system can stay up and running or not. When my friend the doctor says I can go out, I go out.

Sure. But I’m guessing that with your “conservative posture” volunteer work and subway riding, you are receiving/giving 10x as much exposure as me in my “freewheeling” life. And on the flip side, without a recent, proven immunity via infection and/or prolonged, persistent exposure, easily 10x as likely to become a disease carrier. I’m not saying this to question/judge your behavior, but the ripple effect from your behavior (or any other typical subway rider for that matter) seems 100x worse than mine. Ask your doctor friend about my estimates, and I’m pretty sure if the spreading coefficient of this thing were 100x smaller it wouldn’t amount to anything. (FTR, the spread from my household to others was zero, and I can say that definitively.)

>> I just gave my landlord my Broadway tickets because I wouldn't go to a show with these community numbers.

So your solution to contain the multiplied, ripple effect was to simply give the tickets to another potential host ripe for Omicron? OK, now I’m judging ;). J/K.

Happy New Year to you & your family, and I do think hunkering down for the past month has been the right move for most people. That’s certainly what we recommend to our family, at times SMH at those who continued behave the same-ish. Everybody is going to get exposed to Omicron. If you’re old, at high risk, etc., hunker down for another 6 months for the booster. If you’re young, at low risk, etc., hunker down for a few weeks to make sure the hospital capacity is there in the rare case where you need it.

>> Per the Dec. 13th order of NYC's Dept. of Health and Mental Hygiene, brokerages must now request and maintain proof of vaccination in the workplace. I affirm that my workplace, Upstairs Realty, is in compliance with this order. I'm writing the new COVID policy into my listings; expect other brokerages to follow suit. ali r.

Did you post this here because you needed some public affirmation on record? Not on you, but this seems completely silly bureaucracy. Particularly because by the time you posted it, vaccinations had already been shown to be more or less useless against the current variant of concern w/o a booster. A day late and a dollar short…

A lot of silly bureaucracy indeed for Real Estate Brokers while the gyms are open without any masking requirements and at least 10% if not 20% people in the subway have the masks hanging below their nose. It seems that we will all get exposed soon to Omicron given how contagious it is and most will not even know that they had Omicron vs a simple cold. All you can do is get boosters if you are not in the high risk category and continue with normal life.

Nada, thanks for going through the math, and the New Year's wishes. Yup, I posted because I wanted to be on record as having met the deadline, and I didn't want to take a "non-essential" subway trip just to print out the affirmation and stick it on the door of my office, which is what I'm technically supposed to do. I think in general the Covid burden on small businesses has been huge; we didn't get enough PPP, and we don't have enough of other kinds of supports, but we are still faced with meeting all these mandates.

Of larger concern, you're probably right that at this point I'm moving through the world more than is appropriate -- this is a situation where no one wants to be the straw that stirs the drink!

Do you think at these community numbers I should call a hiatus, and if so, for what amount of time?

@inonada - agreed
I refused to go to any events, and I was repeatedly invited to dinners/lunches/conferences from late Nov to early Dec. We had overseas travelers stuck in quarantines through holidays as a result of this. People expect the government/employer/someone else to protect them from themselves, while also complaining about any restrictions. Me - I'll look out for me. Just because one CAN do something doesn't mean one SHOULD do it.

@front_porch
Re: how much of population is carrying omicron & infectious, I'd wager much more in the 10-20% range at this point

City/State are testing 1-2% of population per day which is a pretty huge sample.
Remember that those getting PCRs are not just those who are sick, a lot are testing for work/travel requirements, due to community exposure, peace of mind, etc.. so it is a semi-random sample in that regard.
Both are reporting positivity rates of tested in the 28-33% range on previous day / 7 day averages.
Plus LOTS of people just using rapids instead of waiting for PCRs so those positives never get reporter.
Anecdotally know way more people testing + than last winter / first spring of COVID.

>> Do you think at these community numbers I should call a hiatus, and if so, for what amount of time?

Let's assume the household you are putting at elevated/prolonged/definitive exposure is 50-64 and has typical risk factors. I like to start with some baseline risk numbers:

- Chance of dying on any given day for any given reason: 1 in 100,000. (https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html)
- Chance of dying on from driving 1000 miles: 1 in 100,000. (https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/motor-vehicle/historical-fatality-trends/deaths-and-rates)

So I look at risk relative to that. Using https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-status:

- Chance of dying from Delta unvaccinated: 1 in 100
- Chance of you dying from Delta vaccinated: 1 in 2,500

So if you caught Delta, it was equal to ~40 days of mortality for any reason or 40K miles. This is not risk I'd take lightly, but postponing life for the next 10 years might not make sense either. So in my book, I would be reducing risk but not hunkering down forever.

With Omicron, I think chance of death will end up at least ~10x lower. So 1 in 25,000. So ~4 days / 4K miles of mortality. So a lesser degree of risk reduction is in order: I definitely would not postpone life forever on a risk like that.

On the other hand, if hospital capacity fills up, then you're 10x worse off so 1 in 2,500. Therefore, I think taking a hiatus is right. Unless you've been boosted, your protection against catching Omicron is minimal, and exposure levels are high. So you should count on catching it. Even if you've been boosted, you're only ~3x better than the unvaxxed. So roughly your choices are:

1) Go about your life and expose yourself to a 1 in 2,500 chance of death, assuming hospital capacity fills up. I.e., 40 days of life expectancy.
2) Hunker down for a few weeks to make sure hospital capacity does not fill up, reducing your chance of death to 1 in 25,000. I.e., 4 days of life expectancy.
3) Hunker down for 6 months to wait for a Omicron booster, to reduce your chance of death to 1 in 250,000. I.e., 0.4 days of life expectancy.

Given those options, I like #2: low cost, high benefit. But others may feel differently.

For comparison, I think my odds are:

- 3x better because of age
- 3x better because of booster
- 10x better because of antibody boost from prolonged/persistent Delta exposure
- 10x better because I didn't even so much as test positive on any given day to that exposure despite a 8-month-old vaccine

So 1000x overall, putting me at 1 in 2,500,000 chance of death from Omicron even w/o hospital capacity. That's 1 hour of life expectancy, less than I've wasted on this discussion alone ;).

As a contrast, my mom is probably ~10x worse than you due to age / risk factors, and another ~10x because she has a very weak immune system. Her mortality rate is 1 in 20,000 per day. So for her, the choices are:

1) Go about your life and expose yourself to a 1 in 25 chance of death, assuming hospital capacity fills up. I.e., 800 days of life expectancy.

2) Hunker down for a few weeks to make sure hospital capacity does not fill up, reducing your chance of death to 1 in 250. I.e., 80 days of life expectancy.

3) Hunker down for 6 months to wait for a Omicron booster, to reduce your chance of death to 1 in 2,500. I.e., 8 days of life expectancy.

So for her, I like #3.

I got sick on the 27th.My fever (99.9) broke after six hours. Oxygen never went below 96. Had a pistol of a time getting tested. Finally confirmed positive yesterday. Boosted masked etc. I was going out once a day for food errands etc. In the back of my mind I thought I was pushing it. I'm calling this a very light case and I'm grateful. I also appreciate that this illness will reinforce my immunity. I'm guessing I either got it in the laundry room, lobby or deli. This is a sneaky one as I am pretty careful. I Lysol spray elevator cars if they're empty.

@stache - Good to hear you are doing well now
It seems to be as infectious as measles, which is very bad.
We had a under-30 staff member in our building partially vaxxed but unboosted who still ended up in hospital from omicron.

Unfortunately in our crowded city we are at the mercy of the least disciplined neighbors in our building. So if like me, you have a 4x infected neighbor who wander around the halls/lobby/gym/elevator maskless..

Stache, I’m glad to hear you had a light case.

Oh, stache, feel better! I hear it can be up and down for three weeks...

Glad to hear you're okay stache! My oldest daughter who is 33, got it at a birthday party, felt comfortable with everybody, supposedly all vaxed etc.

She had her booster but only for about a week, had been vaccinated eight months prior to that. She had what she would describe as a moderate cold, with pretty heavy fatigue. It lasted about a week, and she's been completely fine since. She's actually skiing with us right now, and doing and feeling great!

Keith Burkhardt
TBG

Thanks everybody. This illness for me is more of an inconvenience than anything else. I was about a week out of my prime boosted immunity when I got it. This may sound off the wall but I would suggest trying to get covid when omicron eliminates delta (which should be soon). It's weak if you're boosted and they're saying natural immunity is the way to go. Repeated boosting is not going to be the answer, especially if another variant pops up.

I just got tested at Bellevue. It was a snap. They don't put you through the wringer and everyone was very nice. I had no waiting, possibly because of the holiday. I will get the results in a day or two.

Negative yay! Plus they have Mychart which I was able to link to my NYU account. Happy ending.

One agent showed us a unit and did not wear a mask. It was extremely strange as masks were required in the building. All the tenants, doorman, etc had masks on!