Dow 8,000

"Being in the 35% tax bracket, I will recover 70% of my losses in tax benefits"

Think you were typing too fast. If only that were true...

The deductions only count against capital gains, which, if you do things right, generally cost only 20%. You can do against regular income only up to $3k.

So, you aren't recovering 70% of losses, just 20% of the part you sold...

This is the stampede to the bottom boys. Hold on tight.

I am bearish but not as nearly bearish as you on stock market. I agree that there is no short-term fix. But...

Be careful in extrapolating the lack of the rate cut at the most recent meeting. Also watch out for inflation... if the government turns on the printing press.

Govt has significant power in its holster, and has shown unprecedented willingness to use it in recent days. The takeover of the GSEs will be a significant positive for consumer and housing market next year.

nyc, not exactly, because short-term losses are taxed as regular income, as are all gains in New York State and City. So short-term is more than 70%, long-term is more than 40%.

Think of it this way: let's say I have a long-term capital loss this year with no gains to offset it. That loss is carried forward. Let's say a mutual fund that I had liquidated to realize that loss has at the end of the year a net long-term loss that they also carried forward. Their net long-term loss is offset against future years' gains, as are mine. So I obtained the benefit of the loss when I realized it, and I get it again to the extent that the mutual fund carries net losses forward.

The exact same thing happened after the dot.com bubble burst. People who realized losses either offset them that year or carried them forward and used them later. Many mutual funds carried their net losses forward. If you look at capital gains distributions from mutual funds after 2001, you will see that they were minimal. Only in recent years did they increase as the benefit of the losses amortized.

Is it exactly those figures? No, we can't tell, because the rules for mutual fund gain taxation are stupid. But just as you never buy into a mutual fund before the gains distribution date - because you'll wind up paying tax on gains you didn't make - the exact opposite is true with losses: you can make them twice.

FYI I liquidated all of my stock positions, and am investing in 2x bear funds.

Interesting stuff, steve. For sure, credit market needs to stabilize, though the timeline on that is anyone's guess at this point, I think. I'm interested in what happens to GS and MS in the near term - someone suggested a merger, but I don't see how that's possible. I don't see the DOW at 8000 - that would likely qualify as an official depression. Lastly, I'm curious how you can say that there's still robust demand for your Fire Island property. I would have pegged you as the last person to say that. What's your asking price going to be at? 2004 levels?

"if the government turns on the printing press."

The last rate move indicated that that's exactly what they weren't going to do.

That changed the game for me. Actually, it was Cramer, who wanted a rate cut and last night said that "Greenspan would have done it." Precisely why Bernake didn't - it would have caused commodity inflation again, and they are trying to stamp asset price inflation out of housing and commodities.

They're not going to reflate. They will provide liquidity, which right now is not dependent on short-term interest rates, in a way other than through short-term interest rate cuts.

New regulations also coming - leverage reduced, risk reduced, will limit future increases in stock prices.

"I'm curious how you can say that there's still robust demand for your Fire Island property."

Because the last one similar to mine sold in 4 days - co-ops are far cheaper than houses, making them an affordable option for most people, most are selling in weeks. Houses aren't in demand, but apartments are, and mine has an unassailable view of the Great South Bay.

Fire Island property did not increase in value very much. When I owned a 2-bedroom co-op in Greenwich Village, a 2-bedroom co-op in Fire Island cost the same. Now a 2-bedroom co-op in Fire Island goes for between $550,000 and $600,000, whereas a 2-bedroom in Greenwich Village goes for $1.4 million.

> nyc, not exactly, because short-term losses are taxed as regular income, as are all gains in New
> York State and City.

Yes, but you can't deduct them against regular income above the $3k max...

So, unless you have a bunch of short term gains (which wouldn't make a whole lot of sense), you won't be getting the deduction against the 35% rate...

Steve I agree with you. The forced sale of assets at LEH, AIG, and to a smaller extent at Merrill will force all the banks with crap to write down their losses. Then and only then will they get the funds needed to recapitalize.

Those crackheads looking for another rate cut...will not be getting it...their must be asset deflation and there will be.

I see a marketdownturn from peak to trough of 40%. We are at approx 25% down now.

"you can't deduct them against regular income above the $3k max"

I think it's $5k now, but I'm not sure.

But you're right, you can't deduct them against regular income, but you can offset them against future gains. So if think losses will continue - as I do - then realize them now, and realize them again when mutual funds offset their gains as the market rises again.

I'm not making this up - it's well documented.

They didn't cut the rate... but that doesn't mean they won't if it is clear we are heading for the type of economic situation where you get dow 8000. Inflation is much less of a worry in the face of that type of economic weakness. I am pretty confident that "helicopter" ben would act in such a case.

I see the decision not to cut as one that preserves flexibility... as there are many dark clouds on the horizon... where they may need it.

With respect to new regulations... I hear you on the new regulations (reduced leverage/risk) coming down the pike. It is a great worry.

On the other hand, you could see some offsets such as government buying of illiquid assets. Also, it has been posited by some that you could get some accounting changes and/or regulatory relieve to help us get through this difficult period.

thats all we need. new regulations to drive business offshore. If we learned anything from SOX it was that knee jerk regulation is stupid and wasteful. They should repeal the utterly stupid mark to market rules.

It is somewhat scary to me that you liquidated all of your stock positions. I would worry about diversification. There is no place for an international mutual fund in the mix? Maybe a drug company?

> But you're right, you can't deduct them against regular income, but you can offset them against
> future gains. So if think losses will continue - as I do - then realize them now, and realize them
> again when mutual funds offset their gains as the market rises again.

Right, but any gains you're taking should have been long term gains... so, you're not talking about 35% tax you would have paid, moore like 15-20% (depending on the legal). So you aren't getting 70% back, you're getting a much smaller portion of losses back..

> I'm not making this up - it's well documented.

You're not making it up, but your calculation of what it means is incorrect.

nyc10022: the losses I'm realizing today are for the most part long-term. The losses the mutual fund passes through to me are both long- and short-term, depending on how long they held the asset.

Ditto gains - the gains the mutual fund distributes will mirror what they actually earn, both long- and short-term.

"moore like 15-20%." No. I get the 15%-20% + NY at the time I realize the loss (even if carried forward), and I get that same rate to the extent that the mutual fund carries long- and short-term losses forward into future fiscal years: they offset current gains against past losses, it's the mirror image of what happens when you buy a mutual fund the day before the distribution date: you pay tax on gains that you didn't make.

"thats all we need. new regulations to drive business offshore." Spoken like a true supply-side Republican. Unfortunately, it's the regulated entities that are now bailing out the unregulated entities, even within AIG: its insurance and other units are bailing out its trading units. As long as the government in the end must assume the risk of a systemic failure, it must regulate what its own risk is.

Unless you think that after Bear Stearns, Freddie, Fannie, and AIG, that the taxpayer should continue to be held liable for the irresponsibility of private enterprise?

You don't really believe that you can send a bank overseas when its branches are here, do you?

stevejhx: totallyanonymous is halucinating...lets say for the sake of argument they do suspend mark to market, what kind of message does that send to the market. The reason GS and MS are down is that the market finally realizes that they cannot trust the numbers that these companies are releasing.

Suspending mark to market rules would most likely cause the further deterioration of the stock prices...market will assume that they have something to hide and will never invest.

The Jig is up...the bubble will not be inflated by rate cuts that do nothing but increase global inflation.

Totally annonymous you are absolutely right about one thing...there is a ton of money out there but the only way the banks are gonna get it is if they write down the worthless assets. You keep saying they are worth something...but if thery were Leh would not have gone bankrupt, AIG would be in the hands of a public company.

If we follow your strategy we will be Japan...constantly lowering rates with no positive affect whatsoever.

Write down the assets...deflate overpriced real estate...the banks will get recapitalized and we start over.

As for americans...they will pay down their debt over the next year or so and also start over

"Now a 2-bedroom co-op in Fire Island goes for between $550,000 and $600,000, whereas a 2-bedroom in Greenwich Village goes for $1.4 million."

Steve, I know I'm repeating myself, but you should listen to yourself (above sentence) and shed Fire Island, then invest in Chelsea. I doubt very much that no matter how nice that view of the Bay is, summer weekend coops on a sand bar that is uninhabitable half the year is going to fare better than prime Manhattan real estate in a plunge. Are you reasoning that since it didn't appreciate so crazily it isn't going to plummet? I don't agree with that all.

Mark-to-market may not be the best way to value long-term investments if you don't have the intention of selling. Discounted cash-flow is probably better. M2M used to be only for investments held for trading.

What needs to stop is "mark to model," since I can make a model to do anything I want.

Bank stocks will one day be a good investment, once some of these marked down assets are remarked higher. For the time being, however, until housing stabilizes, that won't happen.

There's not so much a ton of money out there right now - if there were, we wouldn't have these bankruptcies / takeovers. Liabilities seem to exceed assets right now.

"Are you reasoning that since it didn't appreciate so crazily it isn't going to plummet? I don't agree with that all."

I didn't say that. I said that I'm getting rid of it when the getting rid of is good. Prices will fall, just not as much as here, since they didn't rise as much.

what happens if China decides to stop lending the USA money to float our economy and bail out our banks?

a complete meltdown.

go read the Asia Times. It looks like they are ready to stop enabling our addiction to debt.

Maybe the Saudi's will flaot us for a while.

Just because Leh, and AIG are screwed does not mean there isn't any money. The saudis have plenty

The lehman bankruptcy means they did not have money

flmd - please answer where all this US money comes from if as you say it is not foreign.

Just answer the question.

"The saudis have plenty"

Are they going to start buying up apartments? I don't think the co-op board would let them sublet.

I'm calling a bottom at Dow 3,856.93, Bob.

Who's Bob?

I'm calling Steve a bottom.

Bob Barker, from The Price is Right ("I'll say $1.00, Bob").

I understood you not knowing who Tom Brady was from that other thread, but not knowing who 'Bob' is?

Hang your head in shame, young man....

I know who Bob Barker and Arj Barker are, I just didn't get the reference.

And I know who Tom Brady is, too - Florence Henderson's TV husband.

malraux, I'm calling dibs on starting the "Where are all the idiots who made the doomsday DOW 3856.93 predictions?!?" right now!

That was mike brady, but it's nice to catch a glimpse of humor from stevejhx!

A glimpse of humor? Just a "glimpse"?!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zf5ExRvDMgU

I'm far better than a "glimpse."

I give steve a pass on not knowing Tom Brady and not catching the reference to Bob Barker, but I am still shocked that he didn't know who Buddy Fox was.

Here my prediction

Dow over 11,000 by the end of the year.

Manhattan Rents will increase in 2009

Stevejhx will still be posting on the average 20 messages a day.

"he didn't know who Buddy Fox was."

Nope.

"Manhattan Rents will increase in 2009"

Yup.

stevejhx you made your forecast I made mine. Let's see who has a better crystal ball.

steve, I think you should just refrain from making predictions or giving out advice about the stock market

stevjhx if you are confident that the Dow will go down to 8000 why don't you short the market. As you you you can buy plenty of different types of ETF's that will allow you to bet against the Dow, S&P and or the Nasdaq.Look at all the easy money you can make by shorting this market.

"why don't you short the market."

I did.

"I think you should just refrain from making predictions or giving out advice about the stock market"

Thank you evillager. I appreciate your opinion.

I maintain my long-term view of where things are going. I appreciate you won't like losing all that money on your apartment, but that's where it's headed.

no problem steve.

by the way, I hope you're right about real estate prices. if they plummett as much as you say, I would make a significant upgrade (and just rent out my current place). seriously, it would be great.

Stevejhx,good luck with that short position I am sure you will become rich over the next several week.

weeks

As of close, Dow now down 26% from peak, S&P 27%

You have to figure NYC market is going to do at least that...

Worse then most can even imagine.

Then best of luck to you, evillager, I hope you can make enough to cover your costs on a cash-flow basis.

I'm on your side insofar as I do like the E.V., though I prefer Hell's Kitchen.

houser: "Rich," I doubt it. Better off - possibly. Most of my losses were incurred over a very few days so there was little I could do to stop them since they were in mutual funds. However, they are fully liquidated and once they settle I will bet in the opposite direction, though not in the US. Risk aversion is here for some time to come, so I'm betting against risk.

I'm also betting seriously against housing by selling co-op.

"Worse then most can even imagine."

Really? I dunno, I have a pretty active imagination. It's not pretty right now, but let's not wrapped up in hyperbole here.

Look to buy the DDM when we hit the 30% decline on Dow.

dco, that would be dow 9800 approximately. I think we have further to go than that. 9,000 seems definite, 8,000 possible. Think of the financials that make up the Dow.

hey steve, it's really generous of you to dole out free investment advice on this board. do you have an office somewhere, I'd like to drop by, subscribe to your newsletter. btw, when are you gonna get your own tv show?

hey gumball, useful post.

stevejh- I have said, I think 30-40% (9800-8400) was the range, in which we will hoover for a while. Yes I agree, the DDM has the financial exposure, however as those terrible companies lose market cap, they will be removed. Even with them in and all the garbage cleared, it will give you limited risk after 30-40% decline. IMHO. 2-4 years horizon and you will more then likely double your money. Slow and steady wins the race.

stevejhx that was actually funny you should be a comedian.

You mean the video, houser? I am a comedian, as you can see, and I'm working on getting into a few festivals and getting management later this year. That's just a short piece of what I do - I have over 90 minutes of material. I'm new but a lot better than most pros, and that's what I want to do when I grow up. It just takes some time to get done.

dco, I think this is more serious than that - I'd go with the 40% figure, 80% for emerging markets and other high-risk areas. We're at 20% - 40% now, respectively. Only halfway there. We're also only halfway there on the housing mess (price deflation has barely started here in Manhattan) and the effect of all this loss of wealth hasn't worked its way through to the real economy. Vultures are swirling around AIG - it will be dismembered at bargain-basement prices.

I changed my mind yesterday - I had been listening to the experts talk about a "crisis of confidence" which are usually short-lived. It's much more serious than that. And for the first time in 18 years, the Fed is not going to reflate the economy with cheap money, so as to prevent another asset bubble.

Remember, lots of these declines recently are not only in financials, but in commodity players: mining, minerals, steel, etc. Those prices have only gone down to January 2008 levels, which is a 50% decrease. They will fall further in my estimation. We are in for a serious recession, and it hasn't even started yet. It won't end till housing stabilizes, and that's months or years away.

The Fed is bursting the asset bubble, on purpose. These are different times, which is why I missed it in the stock market.

A 30% decline in the dow would, interestingly enough, be exactly 10,000.

I'm going off the peak of 14,280....

steve, no one needs a Fire Island apartment; people who work in Manhattan need a place to live. Who knows how much either will go down, either in Chelsea or FI, but I don't think FI properties are going to move more quickly than Chelsea properties. No way.

agree consistent with Steve's analysis I join lowery in predicting a 99% decline for Fire Island
Steve -- please keep us posted as to the date of the fire sale

They have been. If they don't I'll rent it out.

Okay, steve, good luck - if Fire Island doesn't prove to be as robust a market as it was in the near recent past, maybe you'll cut a little slack on the people who have argued that "Manhattan is different" and "there's noplace in the world like Miami" instead of ridiculing them for believing their investments are superior and impervious. You've been pretty merciless in your ridicule of people's investment smugness, so it surprises me that you'd invest in Fire Island. Remember, I wish most people well, so I'm rooting for you to land a two-bedroom Chelsea coop or condo for a mere $800K.

Wow, govt appears to be more activist than even i could imagine. Throwing together an RTC solution in days? Crazy.

This is the problem with putting all of your eggs in one basket... and selling all of your equity investments.

Stevejhx: Your forecast of Manhattan real estate crashing remains wishful thinking. It may happen, but we are eons from this outcome. So I am sorry, but when someone on a real estate blog whose multi-yr doomsday rants still have gone unfulfilled (a single digit drop is NOT a crash), then goes on to make dow jones predictions, I think a bit of humility is called for. Hint: when the cover of business week calls for the end of the world, it is a time to buy, not to sell. That the main indices have given up less than 50% of their 5 yr bull mkt run amidst giddy calls for armageddon speaks to resiliance, if anything, in my opinion. So pls focus on rental ratios rather than your stock mkt projections and give us a jingle when they drop to 10x. Good luck with the bear funds.

"that you'd invest in Fire Island"

I didn't invest - I bought to enjoy it. They are taking out a $3.2 million underlying mortgage for a complex on a sandbar that might get washed away. That's why I'm selling.

"we are eons from this outcome."

How long is an eon?

Market up today, doesn't look likely... http://www.ronniesegev.net

Nope - they finally took action, after costing me 6 figures. The world is now shifting towards fundamentals. I withdraw my prediction, but not for Manhattan real estate.

You forgot one of the golden rules... markets generally revert to historical means. So, that makes you right on RE (historically near 0 real returns), but on the wrong side of stocks (7-8% real)

Steve says "They are taking out a $3.2 million underlying mortgage for a complex on a sandbar that might get washed away. That's why I'm selling."

Steve I guess that by "they" you mean your co-op board. So you are saying that your co-op board has decided to take out a mortgage to buy other properties?

Didnt you argue with me that co-op boards couldnt buy units or other properties? Isnt that the exact thing you called me an idiot for?

Steve, I'm curious about this coop on FI - is the $3.2MM underlying mortgage a second? Does it replace a maturing balloon mortgage? Is it already committed by a lender? Is it for necessary improvements? It seems like FI would be the kind of place to be hit hardest by lenders tightening their standards, and if the money is needed badly enough and the mortgage doesn't go through, then that means assessments on shareholders.

it's surely on its way....Steve may post alot of junk, but if this prediction hits...I now believe everything he says...

curiously, I hope this prediction doesn't stick. Clearly the bailout wasn't enough. Clearly interest rates need to be lowered & the Fed needs to guarantee all interbank loans on a temporary basis. That would stop the bleeding, but I don't know if they've got the balls to do it.

Down more than 500 points so far today. A few more days of that, and we'll be there. What actions, if any, do you think will be taken if we start approaching that though? And at what point?

Agreed all around....maybe if you posted optimisiticly it would would have a positive effect on the market....you never know who is reading these posts...Maybe Bernake?

I sure do!

"maybe if you posted optimisiticly it would would have a positive effect on the market"

The only thing I ever posted negatively on was housing. I was (and am) a bull on the economy - I have tons of work and more comes in every day. It's slowed down a little from earlier in the year, but that's a natural occurrence.

Things are in the works: There will soon be a central clearinghouse for CDS's. Stocks are stabilizing, albeit at their lowest levels of the day. By tomorrow, with the concerted actions by central banks, interest rate spreads should be lower. That will calm some of the nerves.

Internationally, Europe is holding an emergency meeting. A G-7 meeting this Friday should give a solution by next Monday. India lowered its reserve requirements. China will allow margin purchases and short selling, and has already announced plans to prop up its stock market.

This is a panic. It has very little bearing with what is really happening in the economy, but it has the potential to. Obviously if we're down another 5% tomorrow then we will see even more action, faster.

"The only thing I ever posted negatively on was housing."

So in addition to being just plain wrong, Steve is also a bald-faced liar. I guess he wants to overlook his 'Dow $ 5,000 by Monday' prediction. Brilliant strategy - throw out as much crap as you can, see what sticks, and what doesn't stick just lie about.

DOW will be around 9200 by the end of this week. Many have speculated 8000's but that number is too extreme.

oh, ap307! To say such a thing on a day that the Dow is down 700 points, and blame it on me!

As if I had been a constant poster on that subject, rather than just making a prediction based on a single event.

Really.

Did you know that except for the 1987 crash, this is the single largest 3-day drop in the S&P since 1940?

If we get out of this significantly off the lows of the day, then tomorrow might not be so bad.

Let us hope.

ba294, do you still stand by your prediction? It's at ~8600 now. I don't think 8000 is that extreme anymore.

(that said, I did think it was extreme when it was posted. I stand corrected)

What a total and complete shit show today was. There is no way this market has capitulated - yet.

Malraux - agreed, although $72B in mutual fund redemptions sounds like we're getting close.

I think what we're seeing this week is twofold:

(1) A generational liquidation. Every baby boomer and those already in retirement are saying "no mas". I have a few anecdotes from this week alone about folks in their 50s, 60s, 70s calling up the same broker with the same request - "Get me out. Everything." This is a generational move from equities to cash.

(2) Hedge funds are probably hitting the highest level of redemptions they've EVER seen. And it's all coming at once. This quarter has to be the worst quarter in history in terms of both (i) hedge fund performance and (ii) the level of redemption requests. The two combined means that by quarter-end there will be a list a mile long of hedge funds that have imploded. If you imagine what's happening, hedge fund assets are probably effectively owned by the primary brokers at this point, and the primary brokers' key concern is being made whole on the margin loans they've extended. That means every asset is fair game - commodities, equities, bonds. Hell, even in the midst of what appears to be a truly unprecedented apocalyptic unwinding, gold is still only hovering around $900. If ever there were a time for gold to hit $1,500, I'd think this would be it. But that ain't happening.

What's this mean? Everyone's a seller and there are NO buyers. Who's there to buy? Hedge funds - NO. Retirees - NO. Other retail - NO. Look out below. I have already caught a few falling knives, but I am drooling over this one. This is when fortunes are made.

agreed malraux. train wreck.

Since I opened with Dow 8,000, let me say that I remain a stock market bull (long-term) even though I've pared my holdings a lot, after (of course) significant losses. A strange pattern is emerging in stocks, though - emerging markets are falling less than developed markets, which may mean that there is money there ready to be poured in, and that they have come close to a bottom.

I predicted chaos after they foolishly let Lehman fail. Now they have to do the opposite - simply state that unsecured creditors for interbank loans will be guaranteed until this mess is sorted out. It will be the only way to restore confidence. Dow 8,500 is a support level. If we fall below that there is nothing to stop us from going to 7,500.

This will devastate Manhattan real estate even more - a lot of people have (had) significant stock market investments which they've seen disappear. Nothing is going to move for a long time to come. I am one of the lucky ones in that I make enough to support myself on a cash-flow basis. I rent, and if things get bad I can just move to someplace cheaper. If I had a very expensive condo in expectation of a bonus to pay for it, and can't rent it out for half of what it costs, then I'd be right-royally screwed.

I think that describes where most of Manhattan finds itself - right royally screwed.

Steve, you always came across to me as the type of person that supported the view that the government should stay out of the markets. What made you change your tune?

watch out for when the fed gets the CP facility up and running, as Im hearing from insiders this will have a direct effect on Libor, TED, etc..just what Im hearing..Until then, with credit indicators where they are, and LIBOR where it is, watch out. I must admit I have been nibbling though past few days a bit as I wasnt long at all until last week, and looking at losses now. I think there is true panic here and its just SELL SELL SELL. If you can stomach it, there should be a bounce from oversold levels once the purging stops.

Stevejhx -- I think tomorrow is going to be a doozy.....of a drop..... Russia is strangely undervalued. I think the September hedge fund redemptions are creating added havoc on pricing....

Why do you feel the need to talk?

I agree with Faustus and Steve. I have started to build positions since last week. Clearly I was early, but I have been buying select companies on the dips. I did not buy today due to the holiday, so I am hoping for a continues selloff tomorrow so I can add some more to my positions, as well as to add a new company or two. For longterm investors, now is a great time to start cautiously building positions with an eye to five years from now and beyond. I think Faustus is right when he describes the fact that there are no buyers, an unfettered panic selling. In an environment such as this, it is possible to position yourself to make substantial profits down the road.
This is a market for true players that have the liquidity to get involved and not watch every dip and rip over every two minute span, leave that to day traders with their positions in whatever the latest bet it. This is the time for investors. Keep it simple, find companies that you know and love with great value, great market share, great leadership, and exposure to favorable exogenous factors.

"you always came across to me as the type of person that supported the view that the government should stay out of the markets."

I am that rare breed, a free-market Democrat, aka a Warren Buffett, Mike Bloomberg, Bill Gates Democrat. The government SHOULD stay out of the market, but it must set the rules for the market. For the past 2000 years we had boom & bust cycles. Regulation didn't cure it, it tempered it. It can be overdone, but it needs to exist.

mh23, I have cleared out all margined positions because of the volatility. That's how I lost money after Lehman, even though the day before I was even year-on-year - I was margined, and it f*cked me over, I got margin calls because Paulson did the unthinkable, let a BANK fail.

I'll margin again, but not till there's a clear direction.

However, I think that what we're seeing is WAY oversold, unrelated to the fundamentals, and we're about to see a huge rally soon. The S&P is trading at like 18x, emerging is trading at like 8x, despite their growth rates. China - despite the lack of freedom - knows how to manage an economy: don't use a credit card. Margin isn't a credit card if you have the cash to cover your margin, which I do. But these last 8 years have been a drunken binge of credit, and look where it's gotten us.

I've always been middle-of-the-road, but sorry, I supported Hillary & wasn't going to vote for Obama, but something's got to be done. We can't keep twelve thousand trillion dollars of debt. I'll be dead when it comes time to pay it down, but for real: what are we doing for the future?

And why do hedge-fund managers pay 15% federal income tax, when I pay 35%?

Since you don't have kids to pass it down to, why do you worry about the debt?

Since you don't have kids to pass it down to, why do you worry about the debt?

"Since you don't have kids to pass it down to, why do you worry about the debt?"

I guess you only think about you and yours, right?

Well here we are at 8,000.

And falling.

pushing 8400 right now. I cant watch

Did I mention that Obama is going to win a landslide victory over McCain and his more of the same? He's currently leading by 10% in the polls, and as this crisis unfolds that margin will widen.

Just for all to know - the Dow did dip under 8,000 today, before climbing back.

Get ready for it: the Fed guaranteeing all interbank loans, injecting capital into banks by force, quickly. I don't know if that will be enough.

SSO... double long S&P.

We're talking about buying opportunity of the decade. And, hey, if I'm wrong, it doesn't matter... money won't be worth anything anyway.

I'm a baby boomer who saw the apartment market falling and hopefully will close next week on my sale. But idiot (me) must have thought I couldn't lose in the market as I never have before. Fortunately I did sell some and kept it in cash as I didn't know what to do

I have gone through the 70's, 80's, dot com, 9/11 but I was blindslided by my own "it will come back..." and I let my broker sell stuff that's actually doing well two years ago for much more risky things. It was fun in the beginning. By last November I began to lose and should have pulled out, but.....

This is what the person who McCain said "you probably never heard of Fanny Mae....said"

How did I feel about Sen. McCain stating “You probably never heard of Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac before this.”
Well Senator, I actually did. I like to think of myself as a fairly intelligent person. I have a bachelor degree in Political Science from Tennessee State, so I try to keep myself up to date with current affairs. I have a Master degree in Legal Studies from Southern Illinois University, a few years in law school, and I am currently pursuing a Master in Public Administration from the University of Memphis. In defense of the Senator from Arizona I would say he is an older guy, and may have made an underestimation of my age. Honest mistake. However, it could be because I am a young African-American male. Whatever the case may be it was somewhat condescending regardless of my age to make an assumption regarding whether I was knowledgeable about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/10/09/1523335.aspx

Arrogant out of touch pr--k (McCanin) who will lead us straight into a bigger disaster

"double long S&P."

Double long China will work just as well. After this meltdown, it has become the de-facto leading world economy. Brazil as well - its p/e multiple is down to about 6 right now.

Yes this is a huge buying opportunity, the market is well, well oversold, and will likely oversell more. Until something gets the banks to work, however, I don't know when that will be. We will return to Dow 11,000 in a few (painful) weeks.