prediction

zizizi, didn't you eat your hat at the end of last year based on the failure of one of your brilliant predictions? What are you going to eat this time?

Pretty funny thread actually:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/2378-round-two-begins-today

zizizi:

I'll take that bet.

Half of all listings in the East Village on Sunday 12 October 2009 will be below $1,000 p.s.f.

How much?

$100?

$1,000?

?
?
?

JuiceMan - I did eat it, but then I made a killing on that prediction, it took a few months longer but I did, unlike the people predicting 15000... this year I can afford caviar instead of a hat.

Then I predicted FRE and FNM won't go to zero but that dividends will be cut.

Then I predicted the Euro dropping to 1.25-1.35 when it was at 1.59. Made over 15% on that so far.

Now I'm predicting that half the *open houses* listed on Streeteasy in the EV will be below $1000/sqft in a week... if you have time to waste, I invite you to find any of my "brilliant" predictions that turned out to be significantly wrong.

Too bad that malraux can't read. A open house isn't the same as a listing.

For your reference, Dow since that prediction:

http://finance.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chdet=1223076411088&chddm=98923&q=AMEX:DIA&ntsp=0

Euro since the prediction:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=EURUSD=X#chart1:symbol=eurusd=x;range=3m;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

And since I'm not you, I'll remind you of this next week, whether I'm right or not ;)

zizizi:

I'll take that bet.

Half of all OPEN HOUSES in the East Village on Sunday 12 October 2009 will be below $1,000 p.s.f.

How much?

$100?

$1,000?

?
?
?

Wow, I want in on that too. With the killing you made, zizizi, you won't have a problem laying down $5k on your prediction, would you? As malraux said: "Half of all OPEN HOUSES in the East Village on Sunday 12 October 2009 will be below $1,000 p.s.f." Or "Half of THIS WEEKS's open houses in EV will be cut to under $1,000/SF by Oct 12, 2009." Your call, I'd bet against either.

I meant 2008, obviously. Not 2009.

zizizi, I'm very glad you made all of those predictions and can now eat caviar. Why you would want to eat caviar is beyond me, but hey, glad you are happy about it.

Seven on the calendar so far for 10/12/08, all over $1000 psf:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/open_house_planner/search/east-village-manhattan?criteria=open_house%3A20081012

Something tells me, though, that zizizi is trading on material, non-public information.

Now what makes you say that?

BGaria, malcontent, I'll tell you this coming Tuesday if I'm taking you on your bets.

And to be absolutely clear about the structure of the bet - all open houses between 10/12 and 10/19 that will be listed by 10/12.

Now don't some of you people own property? Aren't you betting against yourselves?

Next Tuesday!?!

No way - tell me now - you opened your big mouth and made a prediction three hours ago, and now you're already backpedaling! In or out?!?

(...oooohhhh, I'll tell you next Tuesday if I decide to put my money where my mouth is....)

zizizi, what makes you say tuesday, specifically?

Won't be that soon. RE reacts 3-6 months post market downturns. Look at the past history, 2001 and 1987. Inventory piles up first, then re-pricing takes place.

I'll make a prediction of Monday's DOW level to the exact amount.......Tuesday.

what happened, malraux, got scared?

Not next tuesday, this tuesday I'll tell you if we're betting $1000 on this. Take it or leave it.

"JuiceMan - I did eat it, but then I made a killing on that prediction, it took a few months longer but I did, unlike the people predicting 15000... this year I can afford caviar instead of a hat."--zizizi

You a funny man. If you were such a great forecaster why do you spend all day searching for studio listings.
Case and point here is zizi's postings.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/5317-most-awsome-sqft-overstatement-ever

Well I do hope the great predictor zizizi finds his studio that he's been searching for. Please help if anyone finds a nice decent studio in the 200 to 300 range let him know (let us know as well). It may be tough for him to get financing but we're all be rooting for you zizi.

You can fit a lot of caviar in a studio apartment

houser, if you weren't such a moron (and an abusive moron at that) you'd know that you don't need to search for these, streeteasy does that for you. Do I need to link to my post about the $12mm listing that became a $6.9mm listing or are you going to waste time on that too? In any event it's nice to see you really care...

Anyway, meanwhile all the high rollers here are now going to be obsessively reloading this site on Tuesday. ;)

I'm not 'scared' zizizi - but it looks like you are -

1.) 23 hours ago zizizi says "...This week practically all open houses in the East Village listed on streeteasy are over $1000/sqft. I predict that next week only half of them will be over $1000/sqft..."

2.) One hour after this inane assertion I throw down my challenge, saying "...I'll take that bet. Half of all OPEN HOUSES in the East Village on Sunday 12 October 2009 will be below $1,000 p.s.f...."

3.) Then, only one hour later after my statement above, zizizi suddenly backpedals and tries to reconfigure their initial statement by writing "...I'll tell you this coming Tuesday if I'm taking you on your bet..."

Maybe next time instead of accusing OTHER people of being 'chicken,' you ought to keep your big trap shut before you idiotically title a discussion header as "PREDICTION." Perhaps you should have instead titled your header "PREDICTION. BUT NOT REALLY, AS I WILL TELL YOU WHETHER OR NOT I ACTUALLY HAVE PREDICTED ANYTHING IN FOUR DAYS BY GOING IN MY WABAC (pronounced 'wayback,' of course) MACHINE AND CONSULTING ON THE MATTER WITH SHERMAN AND MR. PEABODY."

To wit:

Boris: "Hey, Natasha, you never gonna believe who's in there!"
Natasha: "Is Peabody and Sherman?"
Boris: "Silly girl! Is moose and squirrel."

Ok, malraux, will you be willing to take this bet on tuesday?

I loved Mr. Peabody and his boy Sherman!

zizizi:

Take it now.

Or not.

Or next time, wait until 'Tuesday' before putting up your lame "predictions."

And for the rest of you, a trivia question - What was Mr. Peabody's first name? AND NO GOOGLING FOR THE CORRECT ANSWER!

I predict that zizizi will join the weasel-boy club with steve

zizizi, why are you embarrassing yourself like this?

Um, Malraux, I think one can make a prediction on here without actually making a wager with you. What are you psychotic?

And Houser, Someone being MONTHS early on an amazing call in the market isn't a good predictor? I would pay extra to have an early call than a late call.

Um, dmag2020, and perhaps you should fix your attention on less complex and more simplistic brain twisters other than Manhattan real estate - like, say, what the first name of Mr. Peabody was.....

The dude did call 11k. That folks are yelling at him for calling it a little early is a bit batty.

He called 11K to occur in of 2007. Let's see maybe if it doesn't happen in 2007 and occurs 12 months later he can take credit for his smart timely prediction . Then this moron uses another screen name valushopper to broadcast his prediction by starting another thread(see link below). The moron answers himself and congratulates himself. zizizi you have to be the biggest douche bag in the universe.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/4251-whoever-made-that-comment-on-dow-slumping-to-11000

I predict that the Dow will hit 11K again sometime between 2009 and 2012.. It's ok if I'm a little early..

malraux, what was Mr. Peabody's first name?

I believe he was 6 months off.

Not to mention, it was a specific number he called. It isn't like calling that it will rain some day.

Calling a 25% reduction in the dow, and having it happen, to me is pretty significant.

> I predict that the Dow will hit 11K again sometime between 2009 and 2012.. It's ok if
> I'm a little early..

You'd actually have to be calling down 8k right now for it to have the same significance.

Bernard Baruch was two years early in calling the Great Depression. Hailed as one of the most brilliant minds in history with regards to Wall Street and politics, Will Rogers said "thank you for saving my life". He didn't call him a moron. Here's the story:

(from http://www.worldlyphilosophers.com/april22.baruch.htm )

Baruch Saves Will Roger%u2019s Financial Life
One of my favorite stories of the park bench advisor came in 1929, when Wall Street was in a bull market frenzy. Baruch worried that the market was getting too speculative, and started liquidating stocks and investing in bonds, gold, and %u201Chard cash.%u201D In the spring of 1929, the famous humorist Will Rogers asked Baruch for advice. Rogers told Baruch he had nearly a million dollars to invest, and wanted to invest it in the stock market.

Baruch warned him, %u201CWhat you want to do is gamble. But I want to tell you that you%u2019re sitting on a volcano. That%u2019s all right for professional volcano sitters, like myself, but an amateur like you ought to take to the tall timber and get as far away as you can. There may come a time when the man who holds your mortgage will want his money and you may not have it, and your friends won%u2019t have it either.%u201D

Two years later, after the crash and the middle of the Great Depression, Baruch ran into Will Rogers at the Capitol in Washington DC, and asked him, %u201CWill, how did you come out of this?%u201D

%u201CI did what you told me,%u201D Rogers said, shifting his gum, %u201Cand you saved my life.%u201D

"There may come a time when the man who holds your mortgage will want his money and you may not have it, and your friends won't have it either."

lowery:

Mr. Peabody's first name was......

Hector!

Mr. Peabody: "Issac's brother, Figby, also was an inventor.
Sherman: "Sir Isaac Newton's brother, Figby? What did he invent?"
Mr. Peabody: "He invented a cookie."
Sherman: (groans) "Oh Mr. Peabody, you don't mean?"
Mr. Peabody: "I certainly do. He invented...

the Fig Newton!"

"You'd actually have to be calling down 8k right now for it to have the same significance"

EW, are you claiming that predictions made on a anonymous board have any sort of significance??? HAHAHAHAHA!!

houser -- I've never posted here using any other screen name (except anonymous posting when that was still allowed). I suggest you document your claims or apologize.

and on that thread houser so kindly linked to, my Euro prediction was so incredibly correct that the Euro is now already at 1.36... nobody else on this board (and pretty much nobody else in any media outlet) was predicting a dollar rally at that point in time.

Poor stupid old houser, if only he sold Euro instead of buying condos...

malraux, I'm sorry that you're such an incredibly big chicken that you won't want to take the bet tomorrow when it may be offered. I'm sure one of you other big bulls will be good for it though...

Malraux, that was outstanding trivia! I can hear the music playing in my head. I'm getting the feeling you must be as old as I am.

NYRENewbie:

No, I'm older, probably (sad to say)!

zizizi:

Fine, and I will make a bet with you today how much the S&P will be down in terms of percentage, with the guarantee I will be correct within a +/- range of 3%.

Oh, but did I mention that I will make this bet with you ONLY at 3:59:59 p.m.?

Idiot.

first I'd suggest you stop using abusive language, second if you're suggesting that a minute of a 6.5 hour day is the same as 2 days of a week then I guess you went to public school and didn't quite make it to college.

Calling you an 'idiot' when you're obviously acting like one isn't abusive, simply a fact. Facts aren't abusive. If I had said instead, for instance, that you tortured kittens, THAT would be abusive (see nota* below).

1.) one minute out of the total a 6.5 hour day (390 minutes) = (about) 1/4 of one per cent of that time frame.

2.) the ten minutes it took you to type up your initial idiotic Saturday morning-ish 'prediction' out of the total of 4,320 minutes (the three days between your idiotic last Saturday morning-ish 'prediction' and next Tuesday morning) = (about) 1/4 of one per cent of that time frame.

So I guess that my public school education actually DOES lead me to the conclusion that 'one minute out of a 6.5 hour day' is (approximately) equivalent to 'the ten minutes you took to come up with and articulate your idiotic OP "prediction" last Saturday morning and next Tuesday morning.'

nota* - But I am sure that you actually LOVE kittens. Who doesn't love kittens?

Hey zizizi:

It's Wednesday. The day after Tuesday.

We all see you're back.

We all see you didn't bet.

SNAP.

Everyone loves kittens, except for serial killers. I'm sure you're not a serial killer, are you?

I would bet but I'm not seeing any takers. How much are you putting on the table?

As for public school (I knew I got that right...), it's good that it allows you to equate prediction horizon with the time it takes to type a prediction in. Some of us don't enjoy such liberty.

NYSun: "malraux admits to being a serial killer (and going to public school!)"

NY Post: "malraux claims typing something in several minutes a clear sign of idiocy, vows to type very slowly going forward"

Retard.

zizizi, "I'd suggest you stop using abusive language."

irony, bjw, it's very important for Williamsburg residents

"I guess you went to public school and didn't quite make it to college."

Yes, public school is where people go to become poor and unsuccessful. Going to Exeter guarantees success while increasing your chance of becoming a douche bag by 75%. Unfortunately for you zizizi, you did not defy the odds.