NYT: End of An Era on Wall Street: Goodbye to All That
Started by kas242
over 17 years ago
Posts: 332
Member since: May 2008
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Barbara Corcoran talks about recent inquiries from Wall Street executives, a market turn, and the long stretch before prices actually ease. "Once a hamlet for the moneyed old guard, Greenwich has found itself in recent years overrun by flashy hedge fund and private equity managers. But with the markets in flux, some high-end homes with price tags as high as $3 million to $8 million that sat unsold... [more]
Barbara Corcoran talks about recent inquiries from Wall Street executives, a market turn, and the long stretch before prices actually ease.
"Once a hamlet for the moneyed old guard, Greenwich has found itself in recent years overrun by flashy hedge fund and private equity managers. But with the markets in flux, some high-end homes with price tags as high as $3 million to $8 million that sat unsold for six months or longer are now being offered as rentals, said Barbara Wells, a local Realtor.
“I had a rental on the market for $11,500 a month. On Monday, we got an offer for $8,500, which we countered with $9,500. They came back with $8,000,” she said. “I told them they were going the wrong way but they said, because of what was happening in the financial markets, this is our new offer. And guess what? The owner accepted it.”
Also shocking, she said, is the fact that some of the new homes offered for rent were houses built on spec.
In all likelihood, the real estate market could be frozen for the next 6 to 18 months or so as buyers and sellers struggle to reach agreement on prices, Ms. Corcoran said.
“The buyers have jumped to the sidelines and the sellers refuse to budge on their prices, completely in a state of disbelief that anything has changed,” she said.
Job losses and lower bonuses are likely to hurt sales of apartments in New York, particularly starter abodes like studios, one bedrooms and basic two bedrooms."
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Response by nyc10022
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
well, there is a good reason sales have fallen off a cliff. Of course, severance won't last forever... the months ahead are gonna be *really* interesting.
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Response by kgg
over 17 years ago
Posts: 404
Member since: Nov 2007
Ciao.
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Response by lowery
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1415
Member since: Mar 2008
what that article describes is exactly what happened in the infamous NYC real estate crash - “The buyers have jumped to the sidelines and the sellers refuse to budge on their prices, completely in a state of disbelief that anything has changed." It did not happen slowly then. I have wondered whether this will be a repeat, and the long runup to it made me think this time may actually be different, because the really bad news started not this summer, but in the summer of 2007. The script from last time is sitting in the newspapers at public libraries.
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Response by nyc10022
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
RE crashes are always slow. You're talking an illiquid market, and transactions can take months (if not years). It can also take months before the quarter stats are out. So, while I think that Q3 numbers were pretty significantly down and Q4 will be a *real* move, I think you're still going to have folks reacting to the numbers in Jan and pushing things down for at least a few more months off that.
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Response by Special_K
over 17 years ago
Posts: 638
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nyc, it's like how many times do you have to explain to people why there is a lag in the fall of market prices. it's so obvious to me and a little frustrating that people just don't seem to get it. urban digs commentary on why new sale condos signed 9-18 months ago explains most of the stability this year in prices. let's wait until next year as this year's signing start manifesting
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Response by Special_K
over 17 years ago
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i meant to say urbandigs commentary is spot on.
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Response by will
over 17 years ago
Posts: 480
Member since: Dec 2007
Right, and I know I always get slammed for offering an optimistic, "this time it's different," but one thing I will say is that the pace of change is getting faster and faster.
Word is that BOA will be moving its investment banking operation from Charlotte to Manhattan, and if Citi is succesfull in its takeover of Wachovia, additional jobs could come from Manhattan. Barclays is also expanding in the region as it takes over a vast amount of Lehman.
So I agree that we're in for a rocky ride, but the world is not going to end in 2009, and what goes down will invariably go up.
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Response by lowery
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1415
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will, "the world is not going to end in 2009,"
in fact, it hasn't ended in 2008 either
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Response by will
over 17 years ago
Posts: 480
Member since: Dec 2007
Totally agree with that.
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Response by julia
over 17 years ago
Posts: 2841
Member since: Feb 2007
will...i suppose you still believe in santa clause...a friend who's a realtor just left after 5 years and returning to teaching because business is dead!!!
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Response by will
over 17 years ago
Posts: 480
Member since: Dec 2007
Well I guess that sums it up, Julia. The country is going into the tank and we'll stay there the rest of eternity.
By the way, aren't you the one that keeps wondering where the price declines are? Or is that the other Julia?
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Response by julia
over 17 years ago
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you're a rude nasty little man.
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Response by dmag2020
over 17 years ago
Posts: 430
Member since: Feb 2007
The world isn't going to end, but your job and your lifestyle may.
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Response by will
over 17 years ago
Posts: 480
Member since: Dec 2007
Maybe... might also get run over by a cab tomorrow.
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Response by dmag2020
over 17 years ago
Posts: 430
Member since: Feb 2007
Yes but the likelihood of losing your job, your lifestyle, and, dare I say your apartment, is much greater than getting hit by a cab at this point, unless of course, your timing in crossing the street is as poor as your timing in the real estate market on the sell side, assuming you haven't sold yet. (and of course I mean the proverbial "you")
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Response by nyc10022
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
"nyc, it's like how many times do you have to explain to people why there is a lag in the fall of market prices. it's so obvious to me and a little frustrating that people just don't seem to get it. urban digs commentary on why new sale condos signed 9-18 months ago explains most of the stability this year in prices. let's wait until next year as this year's signing start manifesting"
I hear you, special K. Yes, there are absolutely folks who don't get it, even now. Hell, most of the US didn't get it until prices were down 20%, and most of NYC didn't get it at all a few months ago. But the tide has turned, Wall Street is toast, the market is down 25-30%, Manhattan RE is down 12%.
Not saying its the end of the world - and you KNOW the tide has turned when the argument is whether the world is ending or not - but the direction of things has clearly turned.
Hell, like 5 major sources noted on curbed all said something like "october 3 - the day the market died".
Its here, it clearly takes time (thats why it took until now), but it is here...
well, there is a good reason sales have fallen off a cliff. Of course, severance won't last forever... the months ahead are gonna be *really* interesting.
Ciao.
what that article describes is exactly what happened in the infamous NYC real estate crash - “The buyers have jumped to the sidelines and the sellers refuse to budge on their prices, completely in a state of disbelief that anything has changed." It did not happen slowly then. I have wondered whether this will be a repeat, and the long runup to it made me think this time may actually be different, because the really bad news started not this summer, but in the summer of 2007. The script from last time is sitting in the newspapers at public libraries.
RE crashes are always slow. You're talking an illiquid market, and transactions can take months (if not years). It can also take months before the quarter stats are out. So, while I think that Q3 numbers were pretty significantly down and Q4 will be a *real* move, I think you're still going to have folks reacting to the numbers in Jan and pushing things down for at least a few more months off that.
nyc, it's like how many times do you have to explain to people why there is a lag in the fall of market prices. it's so obvious to me and a little frustrating that people just don't seem to get it. urban digs commentary on why new sale condos signed 9-18 months ago explains most of the stability this year in prices. let's wait until next year as this year's signing start manifesting
i meant to say urbandigs commentary is spot on.
Right, and I know I always get slammed for offering an optimistic, "this time it's different," but one thing I will say is that the pace of change is getting faster and faster.
Word is that BOA will be moving its investment banking operation from Charlotte to Manhattan, and if Citi is succesfull in its takeover of Wachovia, additional jobs could come from Manhattan. Barclays is also expanding in the region as it takes over a vast amount of Lehman.
So I agree that we're in for a rocky ride, but the world is not going to end in 2009, and what goes down will invariably go up.
will, "the world is not going to end in 2009,"
in fact, it hasn't ended in 2008 either
Totally agree with that.
will...i suppose you still believe in santa clause...a friend who's a realtor just left after 5 years and returning to teaching because business is dead!!!
Well I guess that sums it up, Julia. The country is going into the tank and we'll stay there the rest of eternity.
By the way, aren't you the one that keeps wondering where the price declines are? Or is that the other Julia?
you're a rude nasty little man.
The world isn't going to end, but your job and your lifestyle may.
Maybe... might also get run over by a cab tomorrow.
Yes but the likelihood of losing your job, your lifestyle, and, dare I say your apartment, is much greater than getting hit by a cab at this point, unless of course, your timing in crossing the street is as poor as your timing in the real estate market on the sell side, assuming you haven't sold yet. (and of course I mean the proverbial "you")
"nyc, it's like how many times do you have to explain to people why there is a lag in the fall of market prices. it's so obvious to me and a little frustrating that people just don't seem to get it. urban digs commentary on why new sale condos signed 9-18 months ago explains most of the stability this year in prices. let's wait until next year as this year's signing start manifesting"
I hear you, special K. Yes, there are absolutely folks who don't get it, even now. Hell, most of the US didn't get it until prices were down 20%, and most of NYC didn't get it at all a few months ago. But the tide has turned, Wall Street is toast, the market is down 25-30%, Manhattan RE is down 12%.
Not saying its the end of the world - and you KNOW the tide has turned when the argument is whether the world is ending or not - but the direction of things has clearly turned.
Hell, like 5 major sources noted on curbed all said something like "october 3 - the day the market died".
Its here, it clearly takes time (thats why it took until now), but it is here...