60% of americans say depression 'likely'

i have been depressed since Bush stole the election. who would have thought that even he could f up the world as much as he did?

"Likely?!?"

Jesus, we're already in it, and have been for a little while.

petrfitz. Nearly everyone played a hand in this. Bush, Clinton, congress, wall street, commercial banks, main street, Greenspan, the giant pool of money, the rest of the world ... if you have to blame the government, blame congress for pushing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for taking so much risk:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/05/business/05fannie.html?ref=business

STFU - the REpublicans and Bush were in charge for the past 8 years. I just wish 1 single republican had the balls to admit that they were the ones who were in charge and they were the ones who f'd up. shit head apologizers and appeasers.

Question is: will it be like the 1930s? How bad will it get?

jvstier1 - I agree

I'll like perfitz to have the balls to admit his telling everyone to buy Manhattan RE in January was about the dumbest thing ever said...

nyc10022 - i could lose half of my RE equity/value and I will still be worth millions more than you.

> i could lose half of my RE equity/value

Well, you probably already have. And leveraged, you'll be worth less than zero pretty soon.

Nice job!

BTW, was that an apology?

You keep calling for everyone else to, where is yours?

Very low class and simple-minded petrfitz. I in no way insulted you. Grow up and discuss. This is a discussion board not a jerk board.

You could get 60% of Americans to support a ban on dihydrogen monoxide. Polls mean squat. Hell, I bet 60% of Americans believe petrfitz's stories!

bush wasn't the prez who pressured fannie and freddie to allow for more americans to own homes. in fact it was bill clinton. eat that peter.

Hey, dihydrogen monoxide is one of the biggest killers of humans in the world. I strongly support a ban. I am also against dihydrogen monoxide-boarding.

In all seriousness, the employment picture, while still an unknown, will show how bad this is going to be and how long it will last. Unemployment, as flawed as that metric is, sits right now at 6.1%. Six months ago Goldman Sachs analysts projected unemployment to reach a high point in early 2009 of 6.5%. It is safe to assume that now this number will be higher, but how much higher, how soon and for how long are the key questions.

If unemplyment rises to 8%, that would mean an additional 3 million people unemployed, or a loss of 200,000 jobs/month from now until the end of next year. 12% unemployment means 600,000 jobs lost each month for the next 15 months.

I think that 8% would be incredibly painful. My hope is that it stays as far below that 8% number as possible. Anything above that 8% number tells us that the pain will be great and the hole we have to dig out of is that much deeper.

I think the biggest question, isn't is it "likely" but is it "necessary"? You reap what you sow, and when you sow shit for so long that is what you get. Everyone wants to hit some magic switch and make the problems go away, but that isn't reality. I know as Americans we are becoming more accustomed to simple solutions to big problems and I bet many people thought the bailout package was just that solution. It isn't.

The Great Depression permanently changed the lives and behaviors of many Americans. If you've ever had an older relative talk about living through it, you know what I mean. Do you think this current crisis will have similar after effects? I'm not sure it will, but I think it should.

60% of Americans bought Jet Ski's and SUV's with home equity loans. Why should I care what those 60% think?

I agree with you, Thefed, it should be a wake-up call to people to manage their money more responsibly and for a host of other changes on a personal, professional and corporate level.

I don't think we will hit unemployment at 25% or have bread lines in the streets, as we have many policies and programs in place today that we didn't have 80 years ago. I do think we are in for a good helping of pain for 2008/2009 with a side-dish of smack-upside-the-head. I am optimistic, at least right now, that the damage can still be contained, but the credit markets will have a direct and swift impact on the employment situation and that will give us a glimpse into how bad it may get. Even 2 months of 300,000 layoffs would be crushing to the psyche of the nation.

The fact that so many people think things are so bad is usually a sign that things are about to get a lot better.

New, concerted actions are being taken right now to stabilize the financial markets. We don't know what they are yet, but I assume we will find out in the next few days. I don't know of any investment strategist who says that now is the time to sell. In fact, it's probably the worst time to sell, unless you need the liquidity.

I am, however, surprised and disappointed that we didn't get any action by the Fed today. Bernake's speaking tomorrow. Maybe we'll know something definitive then.

"the credit markets will have a direct and swift impact on the employment situation"

Expect something major, and soon. We can't long abide this stock-market volatility, and the Fed knows it. What they don't know is how bad the panic really is, and that it was caused when they let Lehman fail. Stupid, stupid, stupid.

Absolutely, Steve.

> 60% of Americans bought Jet Ski's and SUV's with home equity loans. Why should I care what those 60%
> think?

For me, its primarily about their participation in the markets - stock and real estate. The stupid masses can obviously have huge impact.

To me, when they capitulate is when its time to move in...

Good points Steve.

I also agree with you that the masses are more often wrong, but it is such a potentially dire situation, that I just don't know what to think anymore.

The administration has zero credibility or leadership capability that it increases my concern. They haven't done a thing right in 8 years, so the likelihood of them suddenly becoming competent in the face of yet another crisis is not likely, but that is a conversation for another thread.

"To me, when they capitulate is when its time to move in..."

Definitely. I do think we're in for a drawn-out bottom (whenever we actually hit it) because confidence has taken such a blow. But the question of WHAT to buy is really the one that's going to have most investors scratching their heads, I think. I work in healthcare and can't tell you the number of times I've heard people say this industry is "recession-proof" - there's no such thing; these types of industries may lead the recovery, but really tough to call at this point. A few people on here making a strong case for gold, but I don't know the fundamentals enough there to make that kind of bet.

A broker friend told me that pretty much all of his client base is calling in and asking to take money out. He's got a relatively unsophisticated bunch, all with at least $500k, some up to $5mil, median probably $500k-$1mil. Major metro area, but not city folk.

My take is, if those folks are pulling out, there 'aint too many left to pull out.

Separately, I Crain's interviewed some economists, and noted that even a few of the bears are surprised by this movement, basically calling it an overreaction. It also said that hedge funds are doing a LOT of the share dumping because folks are redeeming funds.

This anecdotally sounds to be about as big a pullout as it gets... so perhaps this is the beginning of the end...

BJW, in terms of the WHAT... its simple... EVERYTHING. Index funds. Sectors, its all bullshit. Everything that is recession proof or whatever was priced accordingly. And there is overreaction in cyclical stuff. Just buy the index and be done with it.... you are talking about buying America at a 30%+ discount....

For simplicity, here is the Ben Stein portfolio.... it basically gels with Tobin and Bogle and all the other "just minimize fees and hold for the long run" approaches, and its simple, cheap, and easy.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/06/07/magazines/fortune/ben_stein_on_retirement.fortune/index.htm

First of all, I don't know that we are at peak oil. What I generally recommend for the noncash portion of your portfolio - and this has been unbelievably successful - is a mix of various index funds and exchange-traded funds [ETFs], with roughly 25 percent in an S&P 500 index fund from Vanguard or Fidelity; 25 percent in a Vanguard or Fidelity total stock market fund; 25 percent in EFA, which is an ETF for developed overseas markets; 15 percent in EEM, an emerging-markets ETF; 5 percent in ICF, the ETF for real estate investment trusts; and 5 percent in XLE, which would be your energy fund.

(btw, his oil prediction was about a year before peak oil... this was from 2007)

"25 percent in an S&P 500 index fund from Vanguard or Fidelity; 25 percent in a Vanguard or Fidelity total stock market fund"

You're going to have a ton of overlap here. For simplicity, I'd say just the total stock market fund.

"5 percent in ICF, the ETF for real estate investment trusts"

Anyone who owns their home might want to forego this, and consider their homes as their RE aspect of their portfolio.

Otherwise, I agree with your choices. Your choices are about 95% overlap with my equity portfolio.

I still think it's all overblown. A major piece on Fast Money today was that the bailout bill contains a provision - insisted upon by Barney Frank, arch-liberal fag that he is (and I mean that facetiously) - that would allow the Treasury to inject capital directly into firms. Now think, it has a $700 million credit card. Not even the big banks are going to need more than $10 billion, and only as a last resort.

Not a lot of people know that. Not a lot of people know that probably by the end of the week there will be a central clearinghouse for credit default swaps, meaning that prices will be found. Not a lot of people know that the new accounting rules will limit what banks have to write down.

The tide is turning.

Steve - that is interesting. All jokes about NYC RE aside, we don't want the economy to turn any more sour. It's never a good thing to see hundreds of thousands of people out of work with no jobs in sight for a year+ timeline.

Any good news that has some meat on it can help contain the damage. That is where we are going to be until we hit bottom and can start the trek forward.

petrfitz
about 8 hours ago
ignore this person
i have been depressed since Bush stole the election. who would have thought that even he could f up the world as much as he did?

I am a registered Dem. Two years ago I was an independent.

Our leaders have not done this country well. The Republicans are in charge. But the Democrats are not locked up as political prisoners for the past 8 years.

Unfortunately as well, although Republicans didn't put up a great candidate by any stretch, the Dems did even worse with someone so uninspiring as John Kerry and Al Gore was hardly Mr. Personality and unfortunately suffered from the legacy of Bill "depends on what the definition of is is" Clinton.

Republicans and Democrats, our leaders in Washington, our leaders in the state capitals, our corporate leaders have failed.

Petrfitz, as far as you are concerned, you can't maintain credibility by finger pointing in only one direction. Your statement above goes to show that even before the past 7.5 years, Republicans were bound to be judged poorly by you regardless of the outcome.

ClintonB, there is only one way to deal with petrfitz: "Ignoring comment by petrfitz." Same as I do with the long-absent LICComment.

Today has a notably different feeling from yesterday - which I made it through! The Fed will now start buying unsecured commercial paper. It has lowered the Fed funds rate by paying interest on deposits. The bailout plan will take effect in a week. There will be a central clearinghouse for credit default swaps.

Australia lowered its interest rate by 1%. The UK is recapitalizing its banks. Russia (yes, Russia!) is lending money to Iceland. India cut its reserve ratio. China is changing the rules of its stock market.

Okay - none of this would have been necessary if Lehman hadn't gone under, and I wouldn't have lost any money. But that's over and done with, spilt milk. My prediction of a 50% decline in Manhattan real estate remains intact - re-regulation of the financial markets is the top priority of the next administration.

Imagine if Sarah Palin had been in charge of this!

hmm uninspiring Al Gore? lets see how inspiring is it to win a nobel peace prize, an oscar and emmy, create one of the most commerically suuccessful documentaries of all time, revolutionize network television and digital creativity by starting your own television network?

ClintonB you are a fool.

Republicans were at the wheel for the last 8 years and drove our country into the biggest ditch we have been in since the great depression. I wish you republicans would grow a pair and take credit for your efforts.

petrfitz, those are pretty much all things he did AFTER losing the election. He probably would have won if he had those on his resume in '00.

petrfitz...you are spot on this time. bush and his republican cohorts have sunk upwards of $600 billion in an unjustifed and largely ineffective war—talk about BIG government programs (not to mention the moral implications of the senseless loss of life) ...they'd given carte blanche to wall street, lenders, and headge fund managers for the past 8 years and now we're all paying dearly.

when will we learn that deruglation = market collapse? history repeats itself (1929).

> "25 percent in an S&P 500 index fund from Vanguard or Fidelity; 25 percent in a Vanguard or Fidelity
> total stock market fund"

> You're going to have a ton of overlap here. For simplicity, I'd say just the total stock market fund.

Absolutely, overlap. But figure what this is doing is slanting it a bit more toward S&P. You could do the same approach with an S&P and then like Wilshire 2000, but I think this is the simplest.

> "5 percent in ICF, the ETF for real estate investment trusts"

> Anyone who owns their home might want to forego this, and consider their
> homes as their RE aspect of their portfolio.

Good logic.

But, by the same token, you could then have folks invest counter to their jobs as well... just read a piece on an economist who is 150% in the market because his job is academic and counter to it. He's the guy who wrote "are you a stock or a bond".

If you work on Wall Street, you might be lower on equities.

Obviously, everyone is different, but I think the Stein approach is a good overall "approach", and then the rest is about knowing what makes sense to your life.

I like Tobin for the next steps...