Manhattan Listings Approaching 9,000

steve, do you know the level it reached in 1994 or thereabouts?

I suspect the current inventory levels will continue to escalate for the foreseeable future. In my view, the market is still in the dial stage which is way too early.

Correction: "dial stage" should be "denial stage".

I don't know the levels back then, but there was a large number of co-op conversions that came on the market that skewed the "entry into market" figures since for non-eviction plans only 15% of residents had to agree to purchase.

"the dial stage" = "the denial stage"?

Way, way, way too early to dip your toe in. 2 years minimum. Keep renting, invest in the stock market (once it finds a direction), live within your means. Them's my plans.

I'm certainly in zero hurry, Steve. :) The stock market is more or less a trade for probably the next 12 months. This market needs to quiet down and more sideways for many months to build the confidence that has been lost.

In the 1980s-early 90s, it was co-op conversions of rentals but today, it's an absurd over building of condos. The former did not add to the supply of units it simply altered the terms one could live in the space. Today, the vast number of units added & being added to the market (on top of the numerous conversions) paints a far more complicated scenario for any king of recovery.

"absurd over building of condos. The former did not add to the supply of units it simply altered the terms one could live in the space." Lots of warehoused units came onto the market at once, though, being sold to "outsiders." I agree with you, though, that this glut adds up a lot more quickly since there's no one already living in any new construction before unit #1 is offered. And no one builds new condos for prices within the reach of most people, whereas coop conversions were affordable to most.

"And no one builds new condos for prices within the reach of most people"

Hence the pending crash.

>whereas coop conversions were affordable to most.<

That's the way it was and I believe values remained somewhat reasonable until mid 2004. Thereafter, the market price appreciation began to sy-rocket at a pace which in my view, forced folks to take on an uncomfotable debt level to get involved "before they were priced out forever".

At investment firms, they have a name for these compressed accelerated price moves which occur at the tail end of a long bull market(RE bull began in 1995-1996), "parabolic". These parabolic moves typically signal the end of an old bull market & have a habit of ending badly.