1 November Luxury Letter

The broker spin in that "letter" is hilarious.

"In a market like Manhattan, there are always enough cash-rich buyers to bid up a grossly-underpriced GOOD property."
"Like a lion approaching the herd, pick the best of the litter & get the best price possible."

Priceless.

Let's not forget the new buyers who became newly rich by shorting stocks and playing currencies.

Although you do have to admit, everybody's got a little bear in 'em:

"The markets have experienced a level of turbulence that has never been seen in recent times. The equity market
roller coaster has been profound, and has eroded the net worth of many, while enriching a few. Naturally, this
combined with job losses, growing state budget deficits, a contentious election, and the onset of early icy
weather has made for a highly challenging luxury real estate market in Manhattan…..to say the least!"

notice that the first 4 property types all say PRICING DOWN.

But I love this lie... "everyone is recognizing that even if the Manhattan RE market drops significantly, it will have out-performed many other asset classes, including the DJIA... especially over the long term".

So, they don't know how much the "significant" drop will be, but it won't be big enough to hurt returns.

Yeah, gocha.

I always find data credible when it tells me that I need to have balls....very professional!

Here is some data for you...

1 out of 1 luxury RE newsletters say its a good time to buy.

I'm convinced.

someone should read through the ones from last year... I'm sure lots of funny bits in 'em.

I would love for one of these letters by the "experts" to actually say how much they think the market is going to decline. The only broker I've seen posting legit estimates is urbandigs. Would be priceless if every broker report going forward had to include an estimate of where the market is going over the next 12 months - like equity research - then they can gain or lose credibility.

OMG WTF is with that chart on the first page?

Compare if $1 mill was invested in DJIA vs NY RE?

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA... seriously. Look at that chart on the first page near the bottom.

That alone is worth clicking on the link.

It's probably the stupidest chart I've seen to date. I can almost hear the hamsters running inside the soon-to-be ramen eating realtor's head when this was made.

Sadly, I understand the intent of the chart, and the data is probably correct- but who the hell presents data that way? Someone who barely graduated high school.

LOLOLOLOL

ahhh... they wouldn't want people to see this now would they?

http://images.forbes.com/images/2005/05/26/0527home_1.jpg

Thanks for the laugh.

What was Urbandigs prediction on declines?

I love how Steinberg points to 'Short Sellers' as possible buyers of all this rising supply. Does he know what a short seller is? does he really think that someone who profited by being so bearish on real estate/ stocks/ economy to run right out and buy a new apartment in for what is ground zero for all that carnage? .....ah, if only we could short NYC residential real estate.....

In the book "smartest investment guide you'll ever need", they actually asked a derivatives brokers to survey all the accounts in their systtem and see who had profited over 5 years.... answer was 0.

Lots of folks claim to have "made tons shorting". And tons of others "sold right before the crash". Maybe there are one or two, but the majority of the planet is lying, and got their asses kicked.

And 2 guys aren't buying all the apartments on the Upper East Side.