does $800K for this condo seem like a steal?

"North Chelsea" <> "stylish"

They say North Chelsea but technically it's Midtown South. That area isn't ghetto but I wouldn't say "stylish" either. It is convenient for everything except groceries though.

IMHO it's kind of grungy. If you wait 6 months you might be able to get something better in a much better neighborhood.

But if you love it & want it & plan to keep it - go for it!

People are being too nice here. I have a friend that lives in one of those mixed-income buildings near the tunnel approach. I personally wouldn't pay that much money to live in that area because of high-volume transient traffic (commercial and NJ access), questionable commercial establishments, and transient populations (halfway houses, public/Sec. 8 housing, etc.), etc. The pocket of area between Chelsea and Hell's Kitchen isn't very appealing to me.

One avenue over to the East--or several blockes up (or down), and I might consider...

What tunnel? It's by Madison Square Garden.

8A is listed in the same building for 795K, whereas the link points to 7A. Why is there such a big difference in price? Maybe 7A isn't as big a steel as one might think.

8A is filthy & in bad need of renovation. 7A is nicely renovated & move-in condition ... a luxury apartment in a so-so building.

buying the best apartment in a so-so bldg. is never a good idea, especially in this market.

Seller paid $835K in 2005. Ouch!

STREETEASY HISTORY
07/28/2005
Previous sale closed for $835,000
06/07/2007
Listed in StreetEasy by Halstead Property at $1,285,000
09/05/2007
Price decreased to $1,225,000
11/12/2007
Halstead Property listing no longer available
03/07/2008
Listed in StreetEasy by Elliman for $1,250,000
09/09/2008
Elliman listing unavailable at $1,075,000
10/01/2008
Listed in StreetEasy by Halstead Property for $999,000

Wow Tina - this just shows what we are probably in for - a great ride down. I am excited

stevejhx, one of the "tunnel approaches" to Lincoln emerges around 30th St./9th. That's where my friends live, which only appears to be steps away from this listing. I know the area REALLY well, and it isn't very attractive, although some may embrace such diversity and heavy traffic.

As julia says, I don't think buying a nice apt. in a so-so bldg. in a so-so area isn't a good idea, especially in that price range/sf.

sticky - i looked at few two beds in the area and 800 per square foot is not a great deal. i have not seen this one in person but the place looks quite nice inside.

nyc212 is right you are basically at the entrance where people turn left to enter lincoln from 8th ave. traffic can be chaotic.

second the area at night between 7/8 turns into the devils asshole.

in summary - given these unattractive features and you could probably hold off and wait for something in a better area.

It does not appear to be a steal to me. If this is your dream apartment, and you'd be happy living in it for the rest of your life, and you don't plan on having children, and you absolutely need to live at the entrance to a tunnel, then go for it. Otherwise, no.

markdown sounds about in line with market right now.... if you love the apartment, go for it. Use this as a benchmark (given it's reasonable price): will I love living in this place? If yes, buy. Check the financials carefully, though. Use a good attorney and do due diligence.

"stevejhx, one of the "tunnel approaches" to Lincoln emerges around 30th St./9th"

No it doesn't. I have a car. The tunnel approach starts at about 37th Street, and nowhere near where this apartment is. I wouldn't buy the apartment with money I found on the street, but it's NOWHERE near the tunnel.

Sorry.

Best to buy the apartment on 8th floor and do the renovation with the difference in price.

In any case, what you can tell in terms of the price of 7th floor and 8th floor is that the apartment on 7th floor you are looking at certainly isn't a steal. You might find it fairly priced for what you want, good for your situation, etc. but just according to the CURRENT market, it isn't a steal.

Go into the Street easy (or NYTimes) advanced search. Put in 2/2, outdoor space. I tried 1 million max, no minimum, specified Manhattan and got 85 results. You can browse them all in a few minutes, but one close to yours in size, down to $999,999 is at the Atrium, 181 Seventh Avenue:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/349257-181-seventh-avenue-chelsea-new-york

But will they take $800,000? Do you see anything else in a location you like?

Actually, Steve, for 30th & 9th, "approaches" is not the right word, but "emerges" is:

http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=30th+%26+8th,+10001&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=43.25835,93.164063&ie=UTF8&ll=40.752276,-73.998279&spn=0.002536,0.005686&z=18

Additionally, there's an approach right off of 10th, just north of 30th St., so heading west on 29th St. from/across 8th is one way to get there.

But for me, being near MSG crowds is the least appealing aspect of that property, which I think is your main point.

lanhart, thanks for the elaboration, and may I remind everyone that what alanhart said is EXACLY what I initially said--it "EMERGES." Then Steve came w/ some weird questions and observations (which, by the way, sound totally ridiculous if you know the area), and he still insists that the apartment is nowhere near the tunnel access... Oy. That's fine... I have to understand that some people, even in an anonymous forum, must always be right.

I admire steve's guts, though, to be able to be so unequivocal when he has no/little idea about the area. He can tell us he is correct until we are all blue in our faces, but it won't change the geography/traffic pattern.

Steve sounds like those people who've been posting counterfactual information here saying, "FiDi has no supermarkets," "FiDi is full of residents on publis assistance," and "FiDi has no parks!" Just because they say it many times, it doesn't make these things true.

Let us resume the conversation about this apartment, though, by assming that the tunnel traffic has nothing to do with the tunnel. Even then, I don't like all those cars (80% of which have Jersey plates--although there are no tunnels in sight, wink, wink), much of it commercial, and the area is simply crappy with drug-related and public-service related establishments (and their clients).

While there are many 2BR/2BA apartments in Manhattan below 96th street, there are only a handful of 2BA/2BA *condos* under $1 million with private outdoor space, 24-hour doorman and washer/dryer allowed.

In fact I think there are only 3, and 2 of them are in this building.

Sticky, I saw this apartment when it was listed at the higher price. I did not get a good impression from the lobby or the doorman/security guard. The apartment was not for me, but it wasn't bad and you do have that little terrace. So good luck with your new apartment!

Dudes, sorry, but that particular tunnel entrance is between 9th and 10th Avenues, and not accessible via 8th Avenue, and the traffic doesn't affect it on 8th Avenue. If you've ever taken the taxi or driven, far worse are Times Square and the Port Authority, or the actual traffic on 9th and 10th at rush hour, or even on the West Side Highway. The issue in that particular spot is the arena.

NYC - do you have a car in Manhattan? I do. I know where the traffic is. Drive along 8th Avenue, tell me where the traffic is.

steve knows all, always

itseemstome, do you have a car? That particular access point to the Lincoln Tunnel ends on West 30th Street between 9th and 10th Avenues. 9th Avenue runs downtown; 10th Avenue runs uptown. West 30th Street runs east. 408 8th Avenue is at 31st Street, which runs toward the tunnel. But West 31st Street is blocked during rush hour to prevent traffic. So the access to the tunnel at 30th Street is available only from 10th Avenue uptown, 9th or 11th Avenues downtown. I've walked there, driven there, taken a cab there. The traffic on 8th Avenue at that location is from Madison Square Garden and Macy's - cars turning right onto 34th Street.

Sorry. Go here:

http://www.onnyturf.com/subway/

and map it for yourself.

I'm not saying that I'd buy the place for any amount of money because I wouldn't, but the tunnel is not the problem because of the traffic patterns. It's the Garden, and holiday shoppers.

steve, that is just one example of you knowing all

"that is just one example of you knowing all"

Sorry itseem - I'm right, the tunnel has virtually no effect on that location EXCEPT the occasional car turning left when the road isn't barricaded. You see the map, walk there, come back to me with a report.

If you were asking me about traffic patterns in the Bronx - no clue. But I live close to that location, own a car, and have seen it all before.

Before the financial meltdown officially began and the banks started being bought, the standard "good deal" in prime Manhattan was $1000 per square foot.

So here we have a condo with private balcony, 24-hour doorman, washer/dryer & open southern exposures. At what price per sf does it sound like a great deal ... if not $800, how about $700 psf?

I don't really care about car traffic, although the pedestrian traffic can be annoying I guess ... I live near Times Square so I'm used to that now.

sticky, sorry but i think the point people are making is that this isn't prime manhattan. if you like the apartment and really want to live there and don't mind the price then buy it. But right now there is, for instance, a lovely, large, renovated, 2 bedroom prewar apartment in the prime upper east side for well under 1000/sq foot. THAT could be considered a good deal (although given the direction of the market i still wouldn't call it a steal).

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/364607-coop-151-east-83rd-street-upper-east-side-new-york

wow, happyrenter, that is a beautiful apartment, listed 30% below its aspirational price 8 months ago. Problem: 2K maintenance per month.

The maintenance is too high, yes. But it is priced over 40% below its 'aspirational' price, not 30%. And the comps show that it is now priced below what the 3rd floor unit sold for in 2004. I still wouldn't buy it in this market but it would be a much better deal than the subject of this conversation, that's my only point.

> I know the area REALLY well

Nope.

Its nowhere near the tunnel entrances.

Its a couple places over from Brother Jimmy's, which faces the SW corner of Madison Square Garden. It is also almost caddycorner from the Post Office. Its a busy block because of 8th avenue, for sure, but its a block of a lot of shorter buildings. But you are basically across the street from a commuter entrance. MSG entrance is around block.

Penn Station / MSG / 8th avenue are BY FAR the relevant factors here, tunnel is meaningless.

That apartment on the Upper East Side is a co-op, whereas I haven't had much luck with boards so I'm looking for a condo; it has no balcony or terrace; and its bedrooms share a common wall whereas the Midtown condo's bedrooms are split by a bathroom. And the condo's combined monthlies are lower.

As for the area, I'm in my late 20s, enjoy going to bars & clubs. I don't LOVE the location, but it has more than what I'm into than the Upper East Side. My only complaint is that the closet grocery store is on 6 streets down. And I work in TV, I do like having B&H across the street.

I've always thought that anything below 96th Street is "prime Manhattan," with the exception of Avenue D.

10022 is correct - the tunnel is meaningless. Not only because it's 2 blocks over, but because the road is barricaded during rush hour.

sticky--i am not suggesting that apartment for you. clearly it is a very different apartment and i would not expect anyone to choose between them. my point is that there are much better deals out there than the one you found.

And no, the entire area of Manhattan below 96th street is not prime. Until recently, the FIDI was not prime (I still don't think it's prime), and various other unappealing areas (such as the far west 30s!) are very much NOT prime.

one question: if you are single and in your late 20s, why not rent? i am in my late 20s as well. i owned an apartment from 2003-2007 and sold when prices got outrageous. but the truth is, your life is probably not stable enough that you know for sure you won't want or need to move in the next seven years. given the direction of the market, do you really want to risk having to sell at a significantly lower price? rent for a year and then revisit.

> I don't LOVE the location, but it has more than what I'm into than the Upper East Side.

In what sense?
Not a park in sight, tons of traffic, lousy food, lousy nighlife (unless you plan on going to a game every night), lousy retail.

The nighlife is pretty much all commuter bars. Only good if you love Jersey chicks. Dead during the week. You've got the Penn South houses to the south, and lots of methadone clinics and such all around. To the north, you've got MSG/Penn station and some of the crowdest streets in existence... and not in a good way. Its mostly folks shopping at the very low end stores.

And restaurants SUCK. Absolutely SUCK. If its not takeout, you basically have some diners, the crappy steakhouse on 9th, and chipotle. Maybe that Irish pub tier a nog. This is a horrible neighborhood for cuisine (outside of street meat). If you need someplace to take a date or a client, you are SOL.

Say what you want about the UES, but its not even close in my book, whatever you are looking for. I guess you have access to better neighborhoods, but thats not exactly what I look for in a Manhattan locale...

Brother Jimmy's doesn't suck!

I don't love Jersey chicks. But I wouldn't mind a drunk Jersey boy.

I mean, I don't love the area. I just looked up 1996 and 86 purchase prices, they're both around $250K. But how realistic is it to think that prices will fall to those levels again?

Sticky,

There is a lot of distance between 800k and 250k. Even if things don't retreat to 250, they still may go a lot lower than 800.

> Brother Jimmy's doesn't suck!

Actually, I like Jimmys. That gets a little more of an MSG crowd. Hell, I think I had to go there 4 times in a week because there aren't too many other choices of restaurants with a waitress. But thats pretty much what you get.

I'm thinking more of all the other bars on 7th and 8th and such. Folks clearly on their way home...

The big point is its a neighborhood with a TON of cons, and I can't really think of a pro, unless you luuuuuuv the rangers...

> There is a lot of distance between 800k and 250k.

Absolutely. Crazy what the last decade has done to folks in that regard. $650k is a huge amount of distance.

great thread.

steve says the apt is nowhere near the tunnel entrance, then says that its 2 blocks away but has no effect on the apt. His pal nyc10022 of course jumps in to agree.

cliff, I'd note the apt you linked besides currently having an asking price of 25% more then the accepted offer sticky has on the apt in question, has monthlies of 1800 relative to 1100.

"my point is that there are much better deals out there than the one you found."

Happyrenter you're presuming something there. I think its that the UES doesn't suck, in fact that its considered prime. Many people would disagree.

And I can't leave out charley who is apparently tickled pink that this city is in for some extremely hard times. But at least he'll be able to afford a crappy 2 br apt.

sticky, fwiw, I think you should probably wait, an apt like this, smallish 2br in a shaky area, nothing special about it, I don't think 800 is a steal and you could see it at 6 or 700 before too long. Rent for a year.

ccdevi you are absolutely WRONG in your assessment of what I am supposedly 'assuming' about the UES. I can't stand the UES. But it is not merely speculation to say that 83rd and Lex is a more coveted location than 30th and 8th. Look at the comps. No need to speculate. There are better deals to be had, and 83rd street is obviously one of them.

> steve says the apt is nowhere near the tunnel entrance, then says that its 2 blocks away but has no > effect on the apt. His pal nyc10022 of course jumps in to agree.

The closest entrance I know of are the 9th ave * 37th, and 34th between 9th / 10th.
In other words, you have to cross two major avenues to get to those points, and they are a few blocks north.... and you have to PASS MADISON SQUARE GARDEN.

Anyone who thinks that the tunnel is relevant to that area, given its ACROSS from Madison Square fing Garden and Penn station, and, oh yeah, ACROSS TWO AVENUES just doesn't know the area at all.

"steve says the apt is nowhere near the tunnel entrance, then says that its 2 blocks away but has no effect on the apt."

Two crosstown blocks, ccdevi: I live between 6th and 7th Avenues. Do I hear the traffic on 8th Avenue?

No.

Do I hear the traffic on 9th Avenue?

No.

Am I affected by the projects on 9th Avenue?

No.

Am I affected by the crowds at Bed, Bath and Beyond on 6th Avenue and 18th Street?

No.

NYC is correct. I posted the map. There is NO access from 8th Avenue to the tunnel at 31st Street. None.

Steve & Eddie, I wish I drove in the Manhattan that you guys do, where you just pick your tunnel entrance and zoom right in. The Manhattan I drive in has every approach so backed up that lots of people will drive blocks and blocks out of their way in an attempt to end-run the obvious approaches. So yes, 8th Ave is a popular route to the tunnel (which does indeed have an entrance as far south as 30th St.). Also, note that the 8th Avenue traffic crawl abates not after 34th St., but after 42nd St. -- because people use it as a route to the tunnel.

Certainly dropoffs/pickups at the Pennsylvania Station, MSG, and the GPO choke 8th Ave. traffic even more.

you keep saying its a better deal, a better deal to who? well someone who wants to live there, sticky does not, neither do I and now we know neither do you, so its not such a good deal to us is it.

As for the comps, well I looked at the history of 1D, which seems to be the exact same layout, of course on a lower floor. There seems to have been little interest in that place even when the market was red hot. Now there are a couple other apts in the building that show a somewhat different story but I think you would agree that the original asking price of almost 1.7 was a complete and total fantasy, and even the 1.35 number was quite optimistic (presumably it was based on 3A which someone overpaid for).

you two are awesome. I don't disagree that PS and MSG are bigger factors, and am not commenting on how big a factor if any the tunnel is (although I have sat in some god awful traffic on 8th in the 20s and 30s, hard to imagine the tunnel has nothing to do with that). But Steve said it was "nowhere near" it, he mentioned 37th st. Thats simply not correct. An avenue and a half is not nowhere near. Rather then just let forth a simple "my bad, what I really meant was"...but nah this is so much more fun.

"The closest entrance I know of are the 9th ave * 37th, and 34th between 9th / 10th."

What about 30th bw 9th and 10th?

> Certainly dropoffs/pickups at the Pennsylvania Station, MSG, and the GPO choke 8th Ave. traffic even > more.

You just made my point for me... Penn/MSG is by far the bigger factor. Remember 34th gets the traffic, 32nd doesn't even run through. 31st leave you at a bad spot.

> What about 30th bw 9th and 10th?

You're actually entering from 10th avenue.. meaning the choke point is 2 avenues over and beyond..

9th avenue turns into a mess because of tunnel traffic. 8th avenue actually moves...

I didn't make your point for you. "Even more" means "exacerbates". Final straw on a packed street of non-moving camels' backs. Eighth Ave traffic actually does NOT move during PM rush hour, until 44th St.

> although I have sat in some god awful traffic on 8th in the 20s and 30s, hard to imagine the tunnel
> has nothing to do with that

I've been backed up on 38th street when the queensboro got jammed... that doesn't mean folks in the 40s make RE decisions based on the queensboro.... probably better to consider the tunnel right there.

"What about 30th bw 9th and 10th?

You're actually entering from 10th avenue.. meaning the choke point is 2 avenues over and beyond."

But you are now aware of an entrance closer than "9th ave * 37th, and 34th between 9th / 10th."?

"I've been backed up on 38th street when the queensboro got jammed... that doesn't mean folks in the 40s make RE decisions based on the queensboro.... probably better to consider the tunnel right there."

So when you said the tunnel was "meaningless" and not "relevant" to the apt....

"An avenue and a half is not nowhere near."

I live between 6th and 7th. I don't know what's happening on 9th. Or 9th. Or 7th for that matter since I'm closer to 6th, and only if there are a lot of horns honking do I even notice the (always heavy) traffic on 6th.

9th, 10th, and 11th are horrible because of the tunnel. 42nd and 8th is horrible because of the Port Authority, not because of the Lincoln Tunnel. 34th and 8th is problematic because of the Garden, and people trying to turn right onto 34th Street.

And JUST TO END THIS RIDICULOUS CONVERSATION, here is how you enter the Lincoln Tunnel from Manhattan:

http://www.panynj.gov/CommutingTravel/tunnels/html/lincoln.html#nynjaccess

Show me where 8th Avenue is on those maps.

Not.

Not even close.

Furthermore:

"Weekdays, 4 p.m. until 7 p.m. The entrances at West 39th Street between 10th & 11th Avenues, West 33rd Street between 9th and 10th Avenues, are closed to traffic. In addition, no right turns are permitted (except for buses) from 9th Avenue at West 41 Street, and no left turns are permitted (except for buses) from 10th Avenue at West 41st Street."

The exits are at the same places as the entrances.

CASE F*CKING CLOSED.

Or 9th. = Or 8th.

> So when you said the tunnel was "meaningless" and not "relevant" to the apt....

Ok, its relevant in the sense that it is relevant to the Upper West Side.

Meaning irrelvant in Manhattan vs. Manhattan comparison. The entire city has fing traffic.

Jeez, you are wrong. Just cut the argument already.

Its just not relevant.

Look at the map:

http://www.panynj.gov/CommutingTravel/tunnels/sidebar_images/lincoln_map_weekday.jpg

There is no way to access the tunnel via 30th or 31st Streets. Those roads are barricaded. No traffic spills onto 8th Avenue. It's impossible.

Case closed.

lol, you guys are awesome. two peas in a pod.

"two peas in a pod."

You're right this time - two in a pod, both of whom are correct. There is no Lincoln Tunnel access from either of those streets. It's on the map even. God bless America.

If its the pod of accuracy, I'll take it. Certainly better than this nonsense argument you started.

If that is not enough, here are the EXITS from the Lincoln Tunnel:

"To the West Side Highway, use 42nd or 34th Streets westbound. From the left lane of the south tube, which is forced to head uptown on Dyer Ave, to get downtown, turn right onto West 40th Street and right onto 9th Avenue, where you have access to 36th, 35th, 34th, 33rd, 31st, and 30th streets. For everyone else heading downtown, the Lincoln Tunnel Expressway to West 30th Street to 9th Avenue is probably best. To head uptown on 10th Avenue, the most obvious is Dyer Ave north left on West 42nd Street, right on 10th Avenue, but faster might be Lincoln Tunnel Expressway or Dyer Ave south to West 35th Street to 10th Avenue."

The exits are NOWHERE NEAR 8th Avenue - southbound from the tunnel is along 9th Avenue, uptown along 10th Avenue. No access is allowed to 8th Avenue. Ever.

http://newsgroups.derkeiler.com/Archive/Misc/misc.transport.road/2006-04/msg01652.html

Hope this settles it.

PS I still hate the neighborhood and would advise against buying there, but the tunnel is NOT an issue.

given that the original claim was the tunnel being "steps away from this listing", its amazing that it took this long...

ccdevi took this one waaaay too far.

HALP! I've been threadjacked.

lol.

well, to get back to the original point, its not a great neighborhood, so I'd expect further substantial declines there...

But should you by any chance ever need to enter or exit the Lincoln Tunnel, you've got the textbook on the subject right here.

The A line in that building went for $250K in the 80s & 90s, then in 2000 prices really started increasing ... 2003 the same line went for $400K, to over $800K in 2005.

What benchmark are people betting the market will return to ... year, or $ per square foot?

I'm figuring 35% nominal off peak, without a meaningful bump for 4-5 years (probably making it 45% real loss).

Off peak asking price by the present seller, or off the highest sold comp regardless of year?

"I've been threadjacked."

You were!

Sticky - a couple thoughts:

1) Buying when single in your late 20's is a dangerous proposition unless you feel very confident that the apartment will appreciate substantially and/or unless you plan to stay single for a long time. If you get married in the not too distance future, it's very likely you will want to move to accommodate the changed situation and your wife's tastes. Transaction costs with a short hold time are a bitch (unless the apartment appreciates so much that you don't care).

2) I don't think the deal you have is a bad deal at all, even factoring in the likely continuing declines. But the question you asked was - is it a steal. The consensus seems to be no.

So if I were in your shoes, I'd wait and rent until either (a) prices drop so much that you just can't resist (which $800psf doesn't seem like), or (b) you are in a more stable situation and have a long time horizon.

Just my 2 cents. Good luck.

newbuyer is 100% correct. my best friend moved to seattle two years ago for a job and had the normal attitude that it's always better to buy, that renting is throwing money away, etc. so he bought a condo, and two years later he's been offered a promotion to move to san francisco. now he's stuck with an apartment he can't sell and will probably end up losing a few hundred thousand.

i am also far more bearish than nyc10022. i expect a 50% decline and quite frankly, it could be worse. bear markets can overreact just as much as bull markets, right now we just have no idea what will happen. and sticky, ALWAYS compare to comps, never to asking prices. people can ask whatever they want. you calculate price appreciation or depreciation to comps.

last point: how would you feel if you bought the apartment now, and then in a year a comp in the building sold for 700k? 600k? 500k? 400k? That's what you need to figure out. If it wouldn't bother you--if you are super rich, don't care about money, etc. etc., that's one thing. But those prices could happen.

"ALWAYS compare to comps"

Comps are yesterday's prices, completely irrelevant in today's market. Imagine buying Citigroup stock based on last year's price. You'd become spunky.

steve--look at his question. he asked how much people thought the decline would be, and nyc answered 35%. then sticky asked if it was 35% from the peak asking price, or the peak sale price of comps. obviously, it's to comps.

before you start criticizing, why don't you read the thread.