Dow 7000

"werent you ultralong the whole way in the U.S. and even in China and Brazil?"

No, I had bailed. Not to say that I didn't lose money on a tax basis, but I bailed most of China last February, and Brazil about 50% ago.

I agree, its all talk. No value.

let me add another little secret. The guys that get paid huge fees, and take big percentages to make your money, ALWAYS make money for you. Its proven. Also, the guys that are on TV picking bottoms every time we bounce, have been proven so right for the past 12 months.

Problem with gumball's response is that I spoke publicly about my feelings on the market well before it moved, so why would I make up shit here? I told the board I was shorting when stocks didnt catch up to credit markets. But your right, going short is unamerican and adds no value! Especially to those who didnt go short and were long for the downturn, believing in this wonderful country!

urbandigs can i assume that first paragraph is a joke? my point was NOT that the professionals always make money. in fact, they usually do worse than the averages (THAT has been proven). my point is that individual, do-it-yourself investors do significantly worse, on average, than even the professionals. THAT has also been proven.

how can everyone, on average, do worse than an index? transaction costs and taxes. trading costs money.

happyrenter - you know as well as I that the specific trading discussion came as a response to your comment that 'selling into rallies' is the wrong trading strategy! Come on now!

Gumball fails to understand that this is a discussion forum, where guess what, we discuss things. If the discussion gets into trading, so be it. Nobody expects anyone to follow any advice here and we already delved into this argument before anyway when MAVEN dissed me for commenting to short VNO at 98!

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/4510-streeteasy-board-a-primer

The trading strategy was simply in response to anothers comment. Why dig deeper than that? Dumberthanyou made a good statement when this original argument came up: "any shmuck that follows trading advice from a message board probably has worse problems to deal with than a few points off on VNO or whatever"

Very true. My good friends have always bragged how great their financial advisers were, thaht their guy gets the problems we face, and that they are in safe stocks, and you know what, they are down about 25-35% in the past 12 months or so. What gives? Lets face it, how much you earn does not equal how investment savvy you are or the ability to position yourself or your clients in a way that preserves capital, and hopefully makes money in down markets. Your right, its easy to make money in bull markets. Its also very hard to make money in bear markets.

yes, was a joke

and yet somehow you managed to earn 30% returns over the last year. as i said, you should go run a billion-dollar hedge fund.

there are people who have managed to make money for their clients over decades--not just Warren Buffett, but unknown people like Bob Goldfarb of Ruane, Cunniff, and Goldfarb, or George Loening of Select Equity Group. everyone has up years and down years. you know someone is good when they can do well over decades.

HR - no way I would have made that return deploying 100s of million of capital. I stuck 100K into a trading account to play the market starting mid JULY 2007. I remember because the DOW was right near 14,000 and I recall telling my wife I had to be able to day trade the shorting opps, stocks fall faster than they rise...Trading 200K of BP and running a 500MIL fund is quite different.

Many HFs got hurt holding big positions when the sector rolled on them, and they couldnt get out fast enough. My old trader buddies are hedgies, and they were up like 8% up until SEPT 2008, now they are slightly down because they got caught in the big margin call/deleveraging of October. I dont trade oil, corporate debt, currencies, etc..I simply trade stocks, the ultralongs and shorts mostly because they are more volatile, and options to protect if I take on a bigger than normal position. Market rallies, I nibble and build short positions. Market sells, I cover and nibble and build some longs. I am way more quick to sell longs into a rally, than shorts into a selloff. Also, I made most of the gains on the original selloff from mid-OCT-end of NOV 2007, playing skf, srs, eev, etc (no where near hitting the tops of those, selling way too early)..so I had gains to play with going forward boosting trading confidence a bit. I messed up a bunch of positions after that but losses were limited. Never right all the time, nobody is.

your are dead right, you know someone is good when they can do well over decades! I know my little world, after actively day-trading for 10 years. Day trading has a bad rep these days after the dot com bubble and is synonymous with the amateur, do-it-yourself, at home trader. Thats fine and has some truth to it. If I did join my buddy at his HF or another HF, I certainly would have to learn the ropes of managing 100x the amount of capital that I trade with now, as that game is quite different than what I am doing in this very volatile traders market, perfect for day traders like me but hard for HF's with huge positions that were only slightly behind the curve and got stuck holding some positions that rolled over against them.

A couple thoughts on the long-term vs. short term discussion (just my 2 cents, as usual)

1) I agree that it depends on who you are. Some people like day trading, have the time for it, and are good at it. Others don't and aren't.

2) A lot depends on your time horizon and objectives. In my case, I want to have a portion of my savings in equities in the long run. 2007 didn't seem like a good entry point, so I stayed out. Now seems like a better entry point, so I am wading in. Slowly. For me, the reason to keep dry powder is that I am not at all certain the market won't drop a bunch. Nor am I certain it will. So I put a bit in. If it drops further, I have more money to double-down at a more attractive level. If it doesn't drop, I benefit from appreciation on what I did put in. For me, it doesn't make much sense to sell rallies because my goal is to have MORE money in the markets, not less. So I simply avoid buying on the rallies, and try to buy on the dips. Over the long term, I am sure I'll do some selling in markets that feel like bubbles, but my overall strategy is building a portfolio, so in the aggregate, I intend to do a lot more buying than selling (and next to no trading).

A couple thoughts on the long-term vs. short term discussion (just my 2 cents, as usual)

1) I agree that it depends on who you are. Some people like day trading, have the time for it, and are good at it. Others don't and aren't.

2) A lot depends on your time horizon and objectives. In my case, I want to have a portion of my savings in equities in the long run. 2007 didn't seem like a good entry point, so I stayed out. Now seems like a better entry point, so I am wading in. Slowly. For me, the reason to keep dry powder is that I am not at all certain the market won't drop a bunch. Nor am I certain it will. So I put a bit in. If it drops further, I have more money to double-down at a more attractive level. If it doesn't drop, I benefit from appreciation on what I did put in. For me, it doesn't make much sense to sell rallies because my goal is to have MORE money in the markets, not less. So I simply avoid buying on the rallies, and try to buy on the dips. Over the long term, I am sure I'll do some selling in markets that feel like bubbles, but my overall strategy is building a portfolio, so in the aggregate, I intend to do a lot more buying than selling (and next to no trading).

happyrenter - I have to ask:

You say you're 27, and discuss all sorts of stuff you've already invested in, including bars, NYC RE, stocks, etc. Where/how did you get the money for all the investments?

I am in my early 30's, have always made decent $$ and been fairly frugal, and am only now getting to the point where I can invest real $$, whether in RE, stocks or whatever.

Happyrenter is starting to sound like another alias for LICC = tech_guy.

newbuyer - very well said! Sounds like great discipline

newbuyer--

i won a lot of money on a TV show when i was 20, i'm frugal, and i work in asset management.

i had to borrow 12K from my grandmother when I was 22 to start my trading career out of college, because my father was pissed that I didnt get a job after he spent tons of money on my college education, cant say I blame him. Turned that 12K into my full wealth from scratch. If only I was on a game show and won alot of money, life would be much easier..

r u serious hr?

totally serious.

Unreal, you are one lucky dog. So what would you have done if you didnt win all that money after High School? Clearly most cant count on winning the lotto or winning on a game show to get their seed money to open bars in their early 20s..

Well done

i would have done exactly what i do: worked in asset management.

I think I was accused of being a contrarian indicator because of the Dow's behavior yesterday.

Guess, yet again, I'm a day late.

happyrenter is sounding more and more like petrfitz.

i thought i sounded like tech_guy. or was it liccomment? i guess i sound like everyone. steve must hear voices.

Im speechless

urbandigs - are you speechless at the market drop in the last hour? Or happyrenter's story?

BTW, I have no idea how much he won, but props for investing it in some interesting stuff, starting a career anyway, etc. Too many people win money and squander it.

HR, I haven't decided who you are yet. I don't hear voices.

UD is speechless. I second the motion.

HR's story. Yes, props to doing something productive with it that actually gives real life lessons in running a business. Stock market drop in final 20 minutes did not shock me at all. Rallies are sold into in this market.

Speechless because (and Ill get shit for saying this!), I cant believe how lucky some people are. I grew up in a low-middle class family, never got spoiled which Im grateful for, had to work from the age of 13 at my dads fabrics store on E 33rd st during summers, at catering venue age of 16 lugging around 90lb tables for parties of 100+ twice a day and few times during week, paper route, interning at Solomon Smith Barney + Morgan Stanley Dean Witter during my college summers for no pay, etc..

and yet some people get on a game show, win a ton of money, and open a bar before they are even old enough to legally buy a beer. Speechless.

Not HR's fault and I am in no way bitter although some will say I am, rock on for him! I prob would have done similar thing. I just had to work my a$$ off from very early age, and had to beg to borrow 12K after college to trade after following the markets from the age of 13 and a bar mitzvah investment in SGI, a video game and graphics company that got me hooked on the stock market. I had to make my wealth from scratch, and if I lost that 12K the end of my trading career would have been at hand. I never had connections, ever, which is why I had no job waiting for me after college and wanted to trade rather than start a regular 9-5 job with limited upside potential at the time, or get involved in the linings business which is dead.

My father passed leaving us with nothing, not even life insurance because he had to cancel that because things got so tough, and i had to pay for his funeral, to give you an idea.

Its just a very crazy world! Let the 'UD is bitter' rants begin! Sorry for the sob story too. point is, some make their dough from nothing but extremely hard work, disciplined investments, frugality, and learning from mistakes. Others get their start from game show money. Its a crazy world. And finally, I would not recommend buying into a bar/restaurant/ or other retail or franchise at this time even at the right price. We are about to enter a period of deep and prolonged consumer driven recession as credit continues to contract. Frugality, saving, and cutback of discretionary spending is in the future for the next few years minimum!

UD, a couple things:

I don't think you are bitter, just a little confused on a few points:

1. I worked my ass off, went to stuy and then to one of the top colleges in the country and graduated summa in physics.
2. I competed in a competition based on knowledge and intelligence. It is a game that everyone was free to take a test for. It wasn't "luck" that I won. I had the intelligence to win and the energy and determination to get on the show. It certainly wasn't the lottery.
3. I didn't "get my start" on a game show. The money I won there I have used to make a few investments, buy (and then sell) an apartment, and have a little fun. I work my butt off at an asset management company--that's where I got my start.

But besides that, you might consider that in the scheme of things both of us are incredibly lucky. We happen to have been born in the richest, most powerful country in the history of the world. We happen to live in this country at the period of its greatest prosperity. That's awful about your dad, but honestly, the conditions you've lived in have been better than well over 90% of the people in the world. You went to college--most people even in this country don't get to go to college. You were raised by your parents; millions of people around the world are orphans. You get what I'm saying. I don't think either of us was dealt a bad hand to play in this life.

HR - I enjoy discussing things with you here and agree with newbuyer, that at least you did something productive with that special opportunity!

"We happen to have been born in the richest, most powerful country in the history of the world. We happen to live in this country at the period of its greatest prosperity. That's awful about your dad, but honestly, the conditions you've lived in have been better than well over 90% of the people in the world"

your right!

Looks like stevejhx was right all along

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/34852-somewhereelse-smarterbetter-investor-than-inonada

> Looks like stevejhx was right all along

Actually, almost perfectly wrong. He called up as the market was tanking, then sell before every rise. He actually called for dow 11k when were were at 9k and then headed to 6k.

Then all the way up, he called sell.

Awful, awful calls.

18,000 today.

Poised to plummet.

You are nothing Alan if not poised.

Speaking though of being poised to plummet, what happened to your nemesis NYCMatt who was greyed after his comments on the young woman who leaned on her balcony railing and fell when it gave out?