September Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Drop 17.4% From 2007

Lawrence Yun: buy now or be priced out forever! Deflation will outpace the decline!

These are indeed stunning, historic figures.

On a side note, I wish the press would do a better job of explaining how YoY numbers work. The 17.4% figure for September includes most or all of the 16.6% drop that was recorded in August. I realize that everyone here knows that, but many people see those numbers and think "Oh my God, ANOTHER 17%? It's just unfortunate that the press tends to report the statistics without the proper context. A lot of people get confused, and I don't just mean rubes.

stevejhx -- Have you been hearing Jim Rogers on the dollar? Wondering what you think of buying yen

Thing is, most of these cities had decline in 2007. So this is only part of the story. Off their peaks, they're down even more.

"Wondering what you think of buying yen"

I've often thought of trading currencies, but things are just too volatile now for me to do anything like that. I'm sticking with my 2x long China - it's gone nowhere in a month but I bought it near the low, and since it was the first to crash it should be the first to recover.

Everything else is in cash.

I think over the next few months they're going to find out that a lot of the china numbers were absolute bs, like much in chinese politics. Much of the growth they claimed just wasn't there. I wouldn't be surprised to see it fall even during a global "recovery".

BTW, wasn't your last piece of advice to flee the US market last week? That once we broke 8k we'd go to 6500? Hope you didn't bet on that one, too...

"I think over the next few months they're going to find out that a lot of the china numbers were absolute bs"

You mean like Merrill Lynch's, Wachovia's, Citigroup's, Washington Mutual's?

All you need to do is go there, look around. You can't fake what's going on there.

"wasn't your last piece of advice to flee the US market last week? That once we broke 8k we'd go to 6500?"

No, I did not advise fleeing the US market. Nor did I say that we would go to 6,500 on the Dow. I said that it was a possibility. Obviously action is being taken to prevent that. Overnight LIBOR is 0.9% now. Credit is tight. Get real.

> You mean like Merrill Lynch's, Wachovia's, Citigroup's, Washington Mutual's?

Yup, sorta like that... not a place I'd want to be right now.

> Obviously action is being taken to prevent that.

No shit, really?

sounds like another one of those "my prediction is right because I didn't know there would be a bailout" lines.

Sorry, if you bet and lose money, you're wrong. The "there was new information afterward" doesn't correct your statement, just makes it more wrong.

"dow 6500.... There is very little doubt now that that's where we're headed."
- Steve 4 days ago.

"Nor did I say that we would go to 6,500 on the Dow."
- Steve today

I wonder... is there a "double short steve" index?
;-)

BTW, is this another one of those discussions on the meaning of the word "is"?

Double short steve clinton...

Thanks stevehjx -

Hmmm - A new $800 billion program is announced and the markets are off. I would not buy the double short steve index.... which is why i asked for his input...

They are calling last week as an intermediate low.... suggesting that there is further to fall.

"if you bet and lose money, you're wrong"

I did not bet, or lose money, and time will tell whether I'm wrong or not.

I did not make that prediction which you ascribe to me. I said it was a possibility. I am not the only one to have said it. It remains a possibility. Let us see what next quarter's gdp figures are. -5%?

Don't forgett Lehman Stejhx.

"they"

If you hadn't noticed, Steve is a "they", too...

And, generally, "they" are most bearish at bottoms. Which is why we HAVE bottoms...

BTW, don't forget that Steve actually called buy right after the bailout was announced...

"don't forget that Steve actually called buy right after the bailout was announced"

nyc, you're too much, really. I called a "buy" in what I have, which I bought at 25 and it now trades at 25. Unchanged. It's been down, it's been up, it's been the same.

I'm not a day trader. I'm in my investments for the long haul. You may disagree with what my investments are that's fine, but don't ascribe to me things I didn't say.

JuiceMan said that things were going to get better because LIBOR had fallen. And it had, until Paulson (the worst Treasury Secretary in modern times, according to Steve Forbes) decided to pull the rug out under the TARP for the 3rd time, when LIBOR doubled again, now to 0.9% overnight.

Could JuiceMan have predicted that Paulson would be so stupid? No. Short-term predictions are not possible (which is why day traders lose their shirts). LIBOR will fall again, and then JuiceMan will be right, and it will help markets recover.

So give it up.

However, of the 20 metro areas tracked by c-s, New York metro area has been the fourth best performing market on a relative basis: down only 8.2% from its peak.

(Still relatively disappointing for a wannabe buyer.)

True, Topper, but it also has one of the fastest rates of price drop acceleration. That is, prices are falling faster (though not farther) here than elsewhere, probably because we are behind the curve on this.

> I'm not a day trader.

I'll point out that you called the buy 2 days after you called the sell. I agree you're not a day trader... you are a week (or weak ;-)) trader.

> So give it up.

I say exactly that to you. You should stop making your calls, because anyone without experience to know better would have gotten their asses reamed if they listed to you.

I am not a day trader, either... I'm in it for the long haul.
But bad long term advice is still bad advice.

"But bad long term advice is still bad advice."

Well thank you for that, nyc! I will continue to post whatever I want, however. If you think my advice is bad, then so be it. So far I've called the real estate market right, the demise of BSC, LEH right (though not the (stupid) bankruptcy of the latter), BAC's takeover of MER, the demise of the investment banking model, etc., etc.

Short-term price movements in stocks, however, I cannot predict accurately. No one can. No one can predict meteors like Paulson changing the TARP 10 times, either. So far my latest stock market call has been neutral over a month. Considering the volatility in the market - and that the US markets are down 20% in that time frame - I think neutral is pretty damned good.

I remain 2x long China. That is my only stock position, and it will remain such until conditions change. Don't like it? Too bad.

"Well thank you for that, nyc! I will continue to post whatever I want, however. If you think my advice is bad, then so be it. "

I didn't tell you not to post. But certainly don't tell me I can't call out your bad advice.

> So far I've called the real estate market right

Actually, your prediction was 50%. Right now, you're nowhere close to right. We shall see.

> the demise of BSC, LEH right (though not the (stupid) bankruptcy of the latter)

ok, half right on your "brag"

> BAC's takeover of MER

Like we didn't all know that one? Come on?
Are you going to take credit for predicting that it would get cold this time of year?

> the demise of the investment banking model, etc., etc.

You can't call that one yet, can you.

And you've just noted the wins (well, you even stretched for those). You made enough predictions that you should probably have more than you do.

Lets not forget...

Right before buyout - you told folks to get out of market
Right after buyout - you told folks to get back into market
Market tanks to 7600 - you told folks to get back in, as we broke the support level

If anyone had listened to you, they compounded the S&P's loss from 40% down into probably 70% down.

Right now, your record is pretty damn lousy.

and, I almost forgot... a bit dishonest...

"dow 6500.... There is very little doubt now that that's where we're headed."
- Steve 4 days ago.

"Nor did I say that we would go to 6,500 on the Dow."
- Steve today

Actually, NY metro C-S monthly returns have been pretty trendless so far this year.

Jan:... -0.90%
Feb:... -1.20
Mar:... -1.03
Apr:... -1.34
May:... -0.46
Jun:... -0.16
Jul:... -0.76
Aug:... -0.24
Sep:... -0.79

BTW, the 10-City Average for Sep was -1.94
and the 20-City Average for Sep was -1.85

Hopefully, that will accelerate - particularly for Manhattan. But so far, a pretty anemic housing bear market in the NY "metro" area.

I dug up the stats on the long term fall...

"The 10-city index is now 23.4% off its peak price, which came in June 2006; the 20-city index is down 21.8% from its July 2006 high and the national index has fallen 21% since the third quarter of 2006.

Home prices in the 10-city index have fallen for 26 consecutive months. The decline has broadened over the past 12 months, with prices dropping in every city of the 20-city index during September."

Key takwaways... we're down over 20%, and decline has been for over 2 years now... meaning we probably have a long ways to go for NYC's bounce (not that the national bounce is anywhere in sight".