So many unsold apartments...Predictions?

Just a glitch in the matrix.

I smell what you're cooking!, a couple of thoughts. I think you're 171 number is a touch overstated, many of those are south of 65th st, I don't really think of that as UWS. Additionally many of those are north of $10mm. However, even taking that into account, there is still a large number for sale. The real question is, how many upper income large families want to live uptown, that already aren't already here. Maybe it is already oversaturated. I asked a while back for thoughts on price compression between large apts and smaller apts. There was such a trend from 2002-2004 to buy 2 two beds and combine resulting in a valuation of 2+2=8. My strong personal view is that there will be significant compression, not to the point of being linear on #bds or sqft basis, but maybe only a 10-20% premium instead of 50% plus.

The vast majority of 4BR are owned by Wall Street families. A lot of those jobs are gone forever so there will be a lot of people who are packing up and leaving town. There's also quite a few people who know Manhattan real estate prices are unsustainable given the NYC job situation and general bubble that developed in the past 10 years. Those who want to sell at the top (well...a couple quarters too late) are getting out en masse.

One other thing I forgot to mention. I have first hand knowledge of 2 of these apts where the family is simply taking a shot at downsizing as a first attempt to stabilize finances and buy time. Dad lost job on WS.

The recession/depression is hitting the upper class a lot harder the the recessions of the past. The guy selling bagels down the block will never feel it, but the I-banker hoping for the never-ending $1mill bonus is OVER. There are no more "true" I-banks left and 90% of that era's bonuses were tied to "I'll go to another bank if my bonus sucks" mentality. Let me tell you that "retention" ain't gonna be a problem for the next 5 years.

darn it, I should spell chk...

450k for a 600k condo? YEAH BABY YEAH :)

w67th - While I agree that this recession is hitting the wealthy much more than many other downturns, I hardly think that most of the little people down the block aren't feeling it. Maybe not the bagel guy, his product is a meal and a cheap one at that, but the caterers, dog groomers, people groomers, waiters, back-office people, secretaries, travel agents, hotel workers (Atlantis, in the Bahamas, just laid off hundreds, RIGHT BEFORE CHRISTMAS), not to mention people in manufacturing, etc., will feel plenty of pain.