35% drop in the uws!!!!!!!!!!!

this is what happens when there are no bids. Its ALL about the buyers, its not all about supply. Take the bids away and the cycle changes.

Those apartments were way overpriced to begin with. Brick wall views, TINY rooms - they are, to put it mildly, broadly undesirable.

It's places like these that likely won't sell at all in a downturn; I don't know that you can use this as an indicator of major across-the-board price declines.

By the way, if you seriously DO want one of these, I think you might be able to shave another few points off the current ask.

In reality this is worth 200K at the most - I wouldn't pay that - it's tiny, dark and no doorman with maintenance of a doorman bldg.

^^^ Precisely.

Agreed with Squid. From the floorplan, the apartment appears to be about 500 sq. ft. 4F, which claims to be 500 sq.ft., closed for $406k in October (presumably, contract signed before the market crash).
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/252624-coop-66-west-84th-street-upper-west-side-new-york

3F was on the market for $349K and seems not to have sold.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/343929-coop-66-west-84th-street-upper-west-side-new-york

Given the higher maintenance on the apartment you listed and the current environment, it does still seem significantly overpirced.

DrBootleg--don't do it!

I saw 1A in the beginning of the year, forget the history given in streeteasy, if you do further research you'll see the agents try to make it look like it's ONLY been for sale for under a year, this apartment has been on the market in one way or another for literally years--before the market bottomed out, because it's horrible. Brick walls at every window-NO LIGHT, none. It doesn't matter what price you pay, can anyone really live like that? Think about it-at that location any halfway decent apartment at that price would have been snatched up fast. Unfortunately if it looks too good to be true, it usually is.

The denial always starts out with "well, its not a great block" or "its not a great apartment". Every example is the "exception".

Only you get to a point where EVERYTHING is an exception.

Check out 151 CPW Apt 2N... 199 days on the market, started at 5.75 now at 3.6 - pretty amazing drop. I love that building...

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/250417-coop-151-central-park-west-upper-west-side-new-york

Good catch. I wonder what it'll close at. 3.0?

would be nice nyc10023...

Wait - did we just jump from a jail cell on 84th and Columbus to a seven in the Kenilworth?

Anyway, thanks AdamM. Low floors on CPW seem to be dropping pretty fast. I guess the people who still have serious money are no longer willing to settle. That could create big problems for sellers of less-choice units in superprime buildings with tough financial requirements. (Another poster predicted this turn of events months ago, in a discussion of 239 CPW.) I think this one will still fetch a nice price - long park frontage, gorgeous building - but it does make you wonder...

By the way, I think "Fragonard-like Park tableaux" is a euphemism for "rocks and trees block the view".

think you're right on that euphemism West81st... but i'd take rocks and trees over most other views!

In a similar vein, I think this one got done just in time:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/164825-coop-101-central-park-west-lincoln-square-new-york
The drop from $8.5MM to $5.85MM must have been painful, but it might have been much worse a few months later.

nyc10022
The denial always starts out with "well, its not a great block" or "its not a great apartment". Every example is the "exception".

Only you get to a point where EVERYTHING is an exception.

Actually kimerama made a very good point about how bad that apartment really is.
I agree with you that people have tended to make excuses that this time is different, Manhatten is different etc. but please at least make the target of your snark appropriate. This was misdirected IMO.

Thanks for posting kimerama

It might be a bad apartment, but it was relatively cheap to begin with.

If you want "better" apartments losing a chunk, check out the last comp:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/3339-if-you-can-demonstrate-market-movement-with-comps-please-post-here?last_page=true

CPW.... ASKING 25% less than the last sale.. (oct 2007)

Thanks divvie, you know it's funny the "snark" was actually lost on me until I just reread it mainly because it was so off base.

I actually don't think it's impossible or unlikely for prices to fall, I'm pretty sure it's already happening, at least to a certain extent, and we'll see the results in the coming months when properties in contract actually start to close (especially new developments).

But this apartment was just plain awful. And the beginning sales price a few years back was over 500K if I'm not mistaken (hence me saying that it has been for sale unsuccessfully for a while) and that's not relatively cheap for a 1st fl, living room/kitchen combo apt with zero light facing bricks--at least not to me. I'd love for decent apartments to come down in price, but this wasn't it, and I didn't come to the conclusion from sitting on the sidelines and posting to just be a contrarian, I actually went to see it myself WANTING to like it a while back. If it was liveable believe me it wouldn't still be on the market because I would have bid and I'm sure one of the 5 other potential buyers in the apartment with me that random weekday afternoon would have as well. There was plenty of interest, we obviously all just thought better of it.

Good market/bad market, a good, well-priced place in a prime neighborhood will sell.

Here's a great example:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/212766-coop-234-west-16th-street-chelsea-new-york

Just look at how fast it went into contract once it hit a certain price point, more importantly look how many other users saved the listing. It's not perfect, it's a top-floor walk up, but it's liveable enough for the money. There are a lot of people sitting on the sidelines waiting for places in this price range (this thread did start out about apartments in this price range) to become available so I guess while I think these opportunities will begin to open up somewhat in the next year, I don't think that the good places will just sit begging to get bought if the price is right. It's still NY, and honestly, you'll still have to act fast to get a really good deal in this range. Unless the economy REALLY just takes us back to the crime and chaos of like 30 years ago (and hey it could happen, I'm just saying I'm not sure it will for simple population change/supply and demand reasons) I don't think finding a great place (under 500K) in the city will ever be like shooting fish in a barrel like some others do.

Thing is, people forget that not so long ago, you could get a decent sized 1 bedroom co-op for 300k and under (doorman). And the economy was better then. So I really don't know why people think that things can't fall another 50%. And I'm an owner.

Yeah and not that long before that you could get one for around 50K and none of us here think we are going back to that I don't think. Again I'm not saying it's not possible to go back to the 300K days, no one here really knows what's going to happen, but I do think it's unlikely that we go back too far in pricing because the supply and demand game has changed so much in the past decade (in addition to population and general urban shifting). I guess we'll just have to see.

> I do think it's unlikely that we go back too far in pricing because the supply and demand game has
> changed so much in the past decade

Given that sales are down 75% at a time when prices are down in double digits, I think you just saw the supply and demand do a 180.

We've had 50% drops in the past, and we've never had a bubble this big. Do the math...

Again, it depends on what part of the market you are talking about--and I think it's clear we aren't talking about the same thing. This thread was originally about a certain price point, a price point not as directly related to Wall Street/banking layoffs as the higher end. I wouldn't claim to be an expert on pricing on CPW, or 740 Park -- but I do know a fair amount about the market under 500K and I can tell you not many winners pop up that aren't quickly snatched up (in Manhattan or Brooklyn). I haven't seen a breakdown but I would guess sales are not down 75% for decent apts around 400k. In all the open houses I've been to for what were advertised to be good deals in the past year (from Harlem to the LES to Park Slope)--supply was def there and deals were being made. How things play out, no one knows, not even you--but there isn't enough data for what I'm talking about for any real math to be done right now.

Hmmmm.... Kimerama, this recession/depression unlike other contractions in the past is mostly affecting the high net worth individual (initially). I am glad that the "support" jobs for NYC Finance Industry has not taken a hit yet, but all things in life are relative.... at some point a $500K buyer may decide a $1,000,000 condo unit (at height) that has taken a 40% hit might be a better buy than the $500K unit, No? Or he/she may decide that the $500K is way over-priced relative to the "new $600K unit."

One other point I'd like to make... when the market was going up, I personally know of several units in Manhattan that a seller wanted to sell but decided it was the greatest thing since sliced bread which meant less inventory=> higher prices => more units hoping to make more money => decreased inventory => increase prices. Now we have a glut in the market which (you guessed it) decreases prices and if you were thinking of needing the money any time soon and/or believe the market will tank (ala mots writers on this board), you put out more inventory => decrease prices etc (yada yada yada).

"This thread was originally about a certain price point, a price point not as directly related to Wall Street/banking layoffs as the higher end. "

You think Wall Street employment doesn't have a direct impact on the (formerly) $500-750k apartments?

You must be joking....

w67thstreet--If enough million dollar apartments come down to 500K and the ones that are now below 500K also drop in price then yeah, I'd say the buyer at that price point wins (and yeah the former million dollar ones are a better value) but I mean that's all a mute point. Once again, anything is possible I just personally don't think THAT sort of drop is likely, that's MY personal opinion. That's pretty drastic and I guess I feel like I don't understand why people don't discuss that as much as that sort of drop may seem like a great thing for buyers, if it gets to that point it means horrible things are happening in NY and a lot of owners have negative equity and so on, so I'm not sure how that's something to look forward to (not you personally but just a general vibe of some on the board). I'm also not sure how owning in THAT NY would be fun. I mean if prices went to early eighties levels then that means so does the quality of life and the reason it was cheaper to begin with.

nyc10022--of course Wall Street effects us all (jobs, interest rates, general worldwide economy) but it directly effects the million plus market when those buyers/owners are losing their jobs. As of now it's not effecting the lower price points in prime neighborhoods, that's not to say it won't, it just hasn't completely yet. None of us knows what's gonna happen, I mean really, how can you continue to argue the fact that the future is uncertain, at best we are all guessing.

What the hell's a mute point?

""I mean really, how can you continue to argue the fact that the future is uncertain""

Um, because, like, it is.

> As of now it's not effecting the lower price points in prime neighborhoods,

By what measure?

Manhattan median is down double digits, and sales are down 75% overall. You think that low-end apartments are now immune?

> None of us knows what's gonna happen, I mean really, how can you continue to argue the fact that the
> future is uncertain, at best we are all guessing.

There is a difference between being uncertain and being oblivious.
You can clearly see direction now. You can clearly see a range of severity now.

Ignoring all of that because you can't get a specific number is a bit ridiculous.

You think folks on the Titanic stayed on board because they couldn't get an exact time the ship would sink?

Squid--I obviously meant a moot point, but I'll bite and play the let's point out unimportant obvious errors, um, because, like, you totally misread the whole "I mean really, how can you continue to argue the fact that the future is uncertain." Yeah that actually means that the future IS uncertain, genius.

nyc10022--again, scroll up, I said prices are likely falling I just don't think they will fall by 50%. It's not about timelines, or statistics that don't exist yet, it's about not agreeing with the severity of your predictions. And if NY is the Titanic of all things, why are you still on the island/sinking ship?

Kim, let me try to 'splain some basic English usage to you, m'kay?

When one "argues" a point or fact, that means one is asserting said point or fact is true. Therefore, when some genius posts the following question, "How can you continue to argue the fact that the future is uncertain", said genius is actually asking this: "Why are you continuing to claim the future is uncertain?" Duh, what?

I didn't misread, you miswrote.

OMG this is too easy.

How can you continue to argue the fact that the future is uncertain=the future is uncertain and why are you continuing to argue that fact (the fact being that the future is uncertain, remember?)--is that dumbed down enough?

My word. But no, please continue to educate me "squid." It's entertaining.

""But no, please continue to educate me "squid." It's entertaining.""

Where would I even begin? Let's see. Barely intelligible text, improper use of the word 'effect' several times in one painfully cobbled together paragraph (bet you also use 'your' for 'you're' and 'their' instead of 'they're', right?), inability to articulate thoughts clearly... Um, no thanks, I think I'll pass.

Yup, illiteracy is definitely on the rise.

Enough on literacy. Kimerama, I think the small apartment in Chelsea you found does show that many apartments can still sell in this environment at the right price. But notice what the "right price" was in this case. These people had to cut their price over 25% in order to get a contract. Not only that, but we don't know what price they actually got, and chances are it was somewhat below the final ask.

As of now there is still some life in the market. But only for aggressively priced apartments.

happyrenter-yeah fair enough but 25% isn’t 50% that's all I was saying. and agreed, we don’t know what it went into contract for and I mentioned in one of my first posts that until we see those sorts of results we just can't be sure what prime apts are going for at the moment, but I said then that I do think things are coming down.

and sorry I just have to end with this for squid--seriously how miserable are you? you send a nasty and antagonistic post that doesn’t forward the conversation at all to pick a fight (in fact you make it clear that you weren’t even paying attention when you didn’t get the obvious context "argue" was being used in [you know like, dispute] because you hadn't caught on to the fact that I was the one saying that things are uncertain and no one knows what will happen). and then the pathetic grammar lessons on what you'd "bet" I'd say? I mean really, that’s the best you can do to feel better about yourself? ridiculous.

> And if NY is the Titanic of all things, why are you still on the island/sinking ship?

Renting at discounted rates...

Good party on the way down.

nyc10022--wait but you said you were an owner:

"Thing is, people forget that not so long ago, you could get a decent sized 1 bedroom co-op for 300k and under (doorman). And the economy was better then. So I really don't know why people think that things can't fall another 50%. And I'm an owner."

you have confused me with someone else... I didn't say that.

oh I guess I did, your neighbor 10023

West81st said:
>> That could create big problems for sellers of less-choice units in superprime buildings with tough financial requirements.

I think this is a really good thing to focus on. In a runaway bull market for apartments, the gap between what people will pay for the prime units vs. the so-so units really gets narrower. People cope with the lack of prime units that have few compromises by settling for "consolation prize" features, like being in a great neighborhood, or a "name" building, or a particularly nice location. That, despite the unit itself really having multiple undesirable features.

Now what we're seeing is appropriate discounts returning to the market, on units that have glaring flaws. This sort of distorts the pricing data in a way, though, because since you can't spot many flaws in an online listing, what looks like good units on paper now may be advertised with these whopping price cut. It seems to me that that gives the impression that a particular building or location is falling off a cliff, price-wise. (When in fact, it may be the lousy units that people are most anxious to unload, casting no real reflection on the bulk of the building's apartment stock.) Just like irrational enthusiasm can hype up prices in an up cycle, irrational paranoia about getting ripped off can get triggered by imprecise data, in a down cycle.

There's not really a solution to this that I can see, unless someone started adding flags on websites to specify particular limitations on a unit, but that flies in the face of common sense marketing.

Still, so much more info is online now than there was in the last slowdown (e.g., post-9/11 timeframe) that it seems to me that confusing data is only going to make it harder for the market to get priced right.

Hrdnitir -
I think you make great points. W81 was commenting on a low-floor classic six at 239 CPW which I had seen some months ago. Originally it was priced off of several comps on higher floors from a year ago. the comps were in the 2.7 to 3.2 range. At the time (early summer) I posted on here I thought the second floor unit had so many flaws compared with the higher floor units that it would go for nowhere near the recent comps. Here we are, six months later, the apartment has been vacated, and if listings could talk, begging for an offer, any offer. It is now listed at 2.0 mm, also listed for rental, but I bet any credible bid north of 1.7 would be hit immediately. Oh, and the same gorgeous fourteenth floor unit with no flaws closed a few months ago for 3.2. Its a great example of an apartment in a triple-A building, in a triple-A location that wouldve been 15-20% lower than its fourteenth floor brethren in 2007s market but is now lucky to trade for that kind of value. No one is with money is compromising, and no one is intereted in "consolation" prizes.

meant to add the words "anywhere near" that kind of value in the second to last sentence.

oops sorry another mistake, i meant fourth floor unit, not second floor

Hi, bfgross. Sorry I forgot that was your insight originally. A very astute call on your part, way back in the spring.