The November sales statistics were recently released by the Department of Finance (http://www.nyc.gov/html/dof/html/property/property_val_sales.shtml). I'm not sure what methodology is used by the Miller Samuels of the world, but I filtered out the November single unit residential sales with a sale price > 0 and got an average for November of $1.33 Million. I got 1.4 for October, which is flat,... [more]
The November sales statistics were recently released by the Department of Finance (http://www.nyc.gov/html/dof/html/property/property_val_sales.shtml).
I'm not sure what methodology is used by the Miller Samuels of the world, but I filtered out the November single unit residential sales with a sale price > 0 and got an average for November of $1.33 Million. I got 1.4 for October, which is flat, year over year. If December shows a decline similar to Oct to Nov, the average Manhattan apartment sale will decline 5% YOY.
In a posibly related not, the NY Times Comp Sales Data (http://realestate.nytimes.com/comparables/) now only shows data through April 08. It used to show much fresher data, although I am unsure when it cut that back. In I think September I was able to look up a transaction from July 08, but I can't find it now.
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Response by JuiceMan
over 17 years ago
Posts: 3578
Member since: Aug 2007
nyc10022, its a mix issue right? If jrd is correct that is a long way from 20% that you have claimed.
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Response by jrd
over 17 years ago
Posts: 130
Member since: Jun 2008
I think most people that claim that the market is off 20% mean something like "I can find an apartment listed for what I think is 20% less than it would have sold for at the peak."
In a crude attempt to get fresher data, I did a SE search for Manhattan Co-ops having an address and containing IN CONTRACT in the description. I filtered out listing that did not show a listing status of In Contract. I used Co-ops so that I didn't have to worry about all the new construction in contract that will not close any time soon. I got an average of $936,000, which would be down 18% from the 4Q 07 average co-op sale of $1.14 Million, as reported by Miller Samuel. I'm not sure what to read from that given the crude nature of my data. Anybody have access to anything better?
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Response by tech_guy
over 17 years ago
Posts: 967
Member since: Aug 2008
jrd: Try median instead? And/or average price psf? You have to be careful about averages, especially with so little inventory moved. A slight skew in the size of the properties sold could really impact averages.
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Response by jrd
over 17 years ago
Posts: 130
Member since: Jun 2008
The fact that a skew in the type of properties closing can move the average significantly is why I am interested in the average. Lately, it seemed to me that "Recent Recorded Sales" on the front page of SE didn't seem like they were going to give a 4Q average sale > $1 Million, if only because it seems like only smaller units are closer. UrbanDigs is on record saying that the commonly reported YOY Manhattan average sales price change will go negative in 1Q 09, which he expects to have an impact on the psychology of the market. Unless I have a huge misunderstanding about how this average is calculated, it otherwise nearly certain that 4Q 08 will show a decline YOY.
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Response by nyc10022
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
> nyc10022, its a mix issue right? If jrd is correct that is a long way from 20% that you have claimed.
No, its a math issue.... sounds like yours is off.
This stat says prices went down 5% in just one month. Thats way beyond Miller Samuel which said down 11.4% over 3 months (Q2 to Q3)
You seem to be thrown off that October was flat YoY, but you are assuming last October was the peak. If it went up between October 2007 and October 2008, then the October numbers already represent a decline off peak.... which seems to be the case per the other data.
Hell just add 2 more months at 5% to the 11.4% (which only went through October), you get over 20%...
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Response by nyc10022
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
"I think most people that claim that the market is off 20% mean something like "I can find an apartment listed for what I think is 20% less than it would have sold for at the peak.""
That would actually mean more than 20% off, given that most of these have room to negotiate...
But, it wouldn't mean just one apartment... it would mean that more than half are 20% off... thats how medians work.
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Response by tech_guy
over 17 years ago
Posts: 967
Member since: Aug 2008
nyc10022: It seems you're using QoQ numbers to try and predict YoY numbers. However, clearly YoY are more accurate (you just have to wait longer to see them). Which YoY numbers do you think will show a 20% decline? Q408? Q109? Q209?
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Response by JuiceMan
over 17 years ago
Posts: 3578
Member since: Aug 2007
"No, its a math issue.... sounds like yours is off."
mix issue
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Response by jrd
over 17 years ago
Posts: 130
Member since: Jun 2008
Well, I have been playing more with the historical DOF data, and I am having trouble lining up the DOF data with Miller's data. JM has historical co-op + condo data that I am trying to reproduce with the DOF data. I am using c6, c8, do, d4, r1-4, & r6 as a stab at co-op + condo, but I am seeing as much as a 3% difference with JMs numbers. So at this point I can't reasonably compare my interpretation of the DOF data to JM's data, as I can't reproduce his numbers from the DOF data. I would appreciate any insight from the peanut gallery.
nyc10022, its a mix issue right? If jrd is correct that is a long way from 20% that you have claimed.
I think most people that claim that the market is off 20% mean something like "I can find an apartment listed for what I think is 20% less than it would have sold for at the peak."
In a crude attempt to get fresher data, I did a SE search for Manhattan Co-ops having an address and containing IN CONTRACT in the description. I filtered out listing that did not show a listing status of In Contract. I used Co-ops so that I didn't have to worry about all the new construction in contract that will not close any time soon. I got an average of $936,000, which would be down 18% from the 4Q 07 average co-op sale of $1.14 Million, as reported by Miller Samuel. I'm not sure what to read from that given the crude nature of my data. Anybody have access to anything better?
jrd: Try median instead? And/or average price psf? You have to be careful about averages, especially with so little inventory moved. A slight skew in the size of the properties sold could really impact averages.
The fact that a skew in the type of properties closing can move the average significantly is why I am interested in the average. Lately, it seemed to me that "Recent Recorded Sales" on the front page of SE didn't seem like they were going to give a 4Q average sale > $1 Million, if only because it seems like only smaller units are closer. UrbanDigs is on record saying that the commonly reported YOY Manhattan average sales price change will go negative in 1Q 09, which he expects to have an impact on the psychology of the market. Unless I have a huge misunderstanding about how this average is calculated, it otherwise nearly certain that 4Q 08 will show a decline YOY.
> nyc10022, its a mix issue right? If jrd is correct that is a long way from 20% that you have claimed.
No, its a math issue.... sounds like yours is off.
This stat says prices went down 5% in just one month. Thats way beyond Miller Samuel which said down 11.4% over 3 months (Q2 to Q3)
You seem to be thrown off that October was flat YoY, but you are assuming last October was the peak. If it went up between October 2007 and October 2008, then the October numbers already represent a decline off peak.... which seems to be the case per the other data.
Hell just add 2 more months at 5% to the 11.4% (which only went through October), you get over 20%...
"I think most people that claim that the market is off 20% mean something like "I can find an apartment listed for what I think is 20% less than it would have sold for at the peak.""
That would actually mean more than 20% off, given that most of these have room to negotiate...
But, it wouldn't mean just one apartment... it would mean that more than half are 20% off... thats how medians work.
nyc10022: It seems you're using QoQ numbers to try and predict YoY numbers. However, clearly YoY are more accurate (you just have to wait longer to see them). Which YoY numbers do you think will show a 20% decline? Q408? Q109? Q209?
"No, its a math issue.... sounds like yours is off."
mix issue
Well, I have been playing more with the historical DOF data, and I am having trouble lining up the DOF data with Miller's data. JM has historical co-op + condo data that I am trying to reproduce with the DOF data. I am using c6, c8, do, d4, r1-4, & r6 as a stab at co-op + condo, but I am seeing as much as a 3% difference with JMs numbers. So at this point I can't reasonably compare my interpretation of the DOF data to JM's data, as I can't reproduce his numbers from the DOF data. I would appreciate any insight from the peanut gallery.