The ultimate question

no

My dog says yes. Actually he says its going to $450k but he says that you should wait till fall since thats when most desperate sellers drop and drop.

I say, if it drops to $500-550k in next 6 months, I say stiff competition.

Do you want an 800 sf apartment with 2 tiny BR's or are you talking about a 1300 sf 2BR/2BA?

Guess which one is not going to happen?

If you come across a seller who wants to get out of town or is over leveraged I would think so. If you open your timeline up, I think you'll have options. I would think it would be be less than 1000sq ft, though, maybe about 700 sq ft.

What will it cost then?

900 - 1050 sf with a decent layout.

who could possibly answer that with certainty? really? we're all guessing.

Is jifjif right that fall is the best time to buy? I have heard lately that Jan-Feb is best.

Fair enough eah. I am just trying to get some insight from people who know more about real estate than I do as I contemplate a prospect I never thought possible.

why dont you find properties that meet your criteria and bid 550 or under? what do you have to lose? then you can get back to us with how it is going.

That's my plan. First offer to be made in the next week or so.

The answer is NO, unless you go to Harelm or the Lower East Side.

let us know how it goes

Funny, I have the same question, only I'm adding a year to the timeframe. If the UWS drops enough, we'll buy there. If not, we'll settle for a nice Inwood apartment to start out. Right now, I`d say it's 80/20 we stay in Inwood.

Any 2 bedroom on the UWS for $550k is going to be a converted 1 bedroom. A REAL 2 bedroom will not go below $700,000. I know that is not the answer your looking for, but it's the truth.

looking forward toy your experiment. Good luck.

Another question I have is re: broker. My wife thinks a broker would not be in our interest because they a) want prices to remain high generally; and b) want a higher commission. Is there any merit to this argument or are we missing something and need to use a broker for some reason?

ask your question here: http://web.ics.purdue.edu/~ssanty/cgi-bin/eightball.cgi

2 beds for 550k so. of 96 could be had up until the beg of '02. I saw one in a prewar elevator as late as summer/fall '03 (PS199 zone)

h_g Why don't you just put on your ruby slippers, face west and repeat 3 times "RE in Manhattan will crash 50% ". Then take you dream and go look in Queens.

"Fair enough eah. I am just trying to get some insight from people who know more about real estate than I do as I contemplate a prospect I never thought possible"

Not on this site.

Yes, you need to use a broker to get you into the listings. You can't just knock on random doors... Plus I would use a broker to help you get through the co-op board.

You'll get the best price if you go directly to the listing agent.

I am optimistic. The open houses we have gone to for apartments in the $650-850k range have been almost empty and the brokers can't stop talking about how motivated the sellers are.

I get the sense that we are not far off from 2002 prices.

You found 2 bedrooms for $650,000? Are they REAL 2 bedrooms?

And as far as the ones for $850,000, there is absolutely no way thery are going to come down $300,000. Before they accept your offer, they will lower the price by $100,000 and get a better buyer.

Really? In prime UWS, 2 bedrooms, light?
Would you care to post some examples?

No, I guess not at 650. We did see this at 699, down from 830. http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/229643-coop-255-west-95th-street-upper-west-side-new-york.

Horrible.

I would not buy that one. 95th street is a bit too high for me. 86th is my cut-off point.

Here's an overpriced 2 BR for $730,000 on WEA: http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/335949-condo-595-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york

Fakeestate, that place is on the first floor.

732 square feet is tiny. That's roughly the same square footage as many 1 bedrooms have.

I'd wait until a couple of bank owned units are sold.... (i.e. 5% of market) and Co-Ops gets squeezed with increasing RE taxes, MTA fare increases are passed, big 3 auto go into bankruptcy (they will, I don't care how much the gov't puts into them... auto industry has tremendous over-capacity) and Unemployment goes above 8.5% nationally and 10% in NYC. Expand you time horizon as rental rates come down due to owners with IO loans say I'll subsidize my rental for another year (AKA sticking your head in the sand). At the end of 2 years when most IO have to be reset and owners need to get a new appraisal (with the independent valuation law in effect) to do this, "REALITY" will set in and you will have a sea of desperate sellers and an increasing market of short-sales occurring. One other item to look for is me no longer posting... meaning I would have bought my 3bdrm from my postal worker unit owner for 50% of his purchase price and don't want to know who much equity I will continue to lose.... I am sure 50% decrease will be close to bottom, but can't be sure we won't over-shoot on the way down. :) Happy shopping

postal workers cannot buy 3 bedrooms in Mnahttan. THey will never gat approved by the board. And foreclosures will reamin low too because of the baords. SO your delusional to think there are going to be foreclosures all over the place like in Miami or Phoenix.

I guess our time horizon might be too short. Our rental lease in park slope is up in July. If we can't find something by then, we will probably rent a big 1 bdrm in the UWS for less than what we are paying now for our small garden apt in the slope. That should make it easier to look at apts.

I think a law should be passed banning 2 bedrooms from being less than 900 square feet. Who needs bedrooms the size of closets?

"Is jifjif right that fall is the best time to buy? I have heard lately that Jan-Feb is best."

You can make your own conclusion but I find that Fall/Winter seems to get the best discount. The main reason was based on certain listings in previous times being increased at the moment of new year. But things have changed.

Take a look at these two for historical perspective.
http://www.millersamuel.com/charts/gallery-view.php?ViewNode=1168395277jOVLU&Record=4
http://www.millersamuel.com/charts/gallery-view.php?ViewNode=1168396827bKurV&Record=7
http://www.millersamuel.com/charts/gallery-view.php?ViewNode=1168397658DtFJU&Record=9

I am in the same boat as you are h_g, I am looking to buy in next 6-9 months. I just walked away from a deal so I hope I made the right decision. My honest opinion is that $550k for 2 br UWS doesnt seem viable, unless it is about 700-900 sqf.

""Another question I have is re: broker. My wife thinks a broker would not be in our interest because they a) want prices to remain high generally; and b) want a higher commission. Is there any merit to this argument or are we missing something and need to use a broker for some reason?""

With listings easily accessible on sites like this one, there's no reason you need to begin your search with a broker. That said, there can be merit to using a good broker to help with things like your board package. Also, brokers often know about properties before they hit the market, so if you're interested in a particular area or type of property a broker would be able to give you a heads-up as soon as something suitable comes down the pike.

As for your concern that brokers "want prices to remain higher" - the answer is, so what? Not up to them. Up to YOU, the buyer. And as for brokers "wanting a higher commission" - the standard commission is 6%, paid by seller. If there is a buy-side broker in the mix, he/she will split that with the listing agent. It won't translate to "higher commissions" for you, the buyer.

"Fair enough eah. I am just trying to get some insight from people who know more about real estate than I do as I contemplate a prospect I never thought possible <--ruff, what is this in reference to?

2 br for 625,000, 11th floor, W 79th St: http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/234493-coop-310-west-79th-street-upper-west-side-new-york

This is on the LES but I love this listing for a real 2 bed balcony with view in your range. It's my friends place and it's sweet.

http://www.halstead.com/detail.aspx?id=1628096

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/345781-coop-457-fdr-drive-lower-east-side-new-york

I meant to post the SE listing.

fakeestate high maint and 25% down!!

11201 my wife would not feel safe in that location but it looks nice...

jifjif and h_g, Chance of market going up in the next 2 years (0 to 2%)... rentals going down (100%)... It took 10 years to get here... it's gonna take alot longer to sort out winners and losers in NYC RE. Ask yourselves does it feel like we are at the beginning of recession/depression or the end? We've already been in it for 12 months (the last horrific one lasted 16months - this one is gonna be a lot worse). Let's say we add 12 more months bf we can even look up as say is it over yet? RE is funny bc most rentals are in 12 month increments so there is this ladder-step to price movements.... i.e. you'll never see all the "A" line come to market on the same month.

Alpine292 go up and down any condo (not Coop) and find out what professions they are in.... NYC is mostly for transient people.... first banking job, I wanna be a model, parents co-signed for loans etc (I know an adult couple with kids who get allowance from parents to live in NYC :) ) and yes even Postal workers who took his entire life savings and put down 5% ($75K) on a $1.5MM 3 bdrm in 2002 and re-fi(ed) in 2007 (just bf melt-down). But we can argue about this all we want... let's see how many people can CASH FLOW themselves through this maelstrom? If you need $10K month to carry but are willing to rent for $5K, then you are making a bet that the (1) price appreciation will somehow save you or (2) a bank will double down.... The last time I checked Capital Intermediation is all gummed up... (option 2 is gone). You also know what I think about (1) option. I hope the postal pension plan doesn't implode... but my mailman we'll see. I think the postal worker's wife is a RE broker in Harlem.... at least one of them has a steady job.

Someone asks for UWS and gets... next to the FDR???

btw, that area is soooooooo cut off...

Are there any clues to look for to see if a seller really needs to sell?

25% down is not unusual.

Drool and funny twitches of the eyes

h_g, do yourself a favor and wait and look and get informed. Talking heads and all kinds of self-appointed experts said, both in regard to NYC RE and the country's economy in general, that we wouldn't ever get to where we are now, and guess what: here we are. If you can't get a real 2br for 550K in UWS in 6 ms, but see prices getting closer to your target, wait: they'll get there. Ever heard about inertia? The decline is only gaining speed, so it won't abate any time soon. Be patient.

Trompiloco, thanks for the encouragement. JKB LOL. Fakeestate, I'm sure you are right but $1400+ maintenance on 900 sf will not work for me. I am going to wait for $1/sf or so in maintenance, is this crazy?

Maintenance rises over time. So, yes, this is crazy.

Though, admittedly, 1,400 in maintenance does seem high for this apartment.

Thanks...I'm glad I'm only a little bit crazy!

h_g - while I am in the bear camp I do think you have some unreasonable expectations (and this coming from someone who thinks a 50% drop is very possible). You want a real 2 BR, $1/ft maintenance, and you consider 79th st. on the UWS as an unsafe location, all for $550k. That is perhaps possible, but it will mean a drop to '98-'99 price levels and that, though possible, is probably improbable. You have a good chance of getting 2 out of 3 in the next couple of years. To get all 3 would mean we haven't yet seen all the crap there is to hit the fan, and that is scary.

I'll get one on the East side in 2 years. I saw ones in 2004-5 up in Yorkville. They will have 2 baths too

AvUWS thanks for the advice but the area I described as unsafe is Grand Street and the FDR, west 79th is just fine in my book!!

"probably improbable"

That's a great phrase!

Watch out, west 79th has tons of college kids hanging around, watching sports, playing beer pong. Real ruffneck area.

W 79th between Broadway & Amsterdam has college kids. The rest of the street, not so much.

Of the entire prime UWS, 79th is probably the worst block. I wouldn't go so far as to compare it to 86th street on the east side, but it's not amazing.

h_g - Yes, horrible horrible block what with all those hippi'ish jews who attend the Carlbach Synagogue. Seriously, for those who think that is a bad block there just is no pleasing. The only real collegey bar is between Amsterdam and B'way and the rest of that block is still good. I love Kefi.

Look for listings in 119 West 71st and 302 West 79th. There are small 2-bedrooms in 119 West 71st (D-line) - closed for 650ish in '06. Ditto 302 West 79th.

Thanks 10023 - will do!

Just curious, are there any good deals out there on 1 bedroom condos for $550k and below? I own a house in northern NJ with a mortgage on it so I doubt I will ever get approved by a co-op board since my debt to income ratio will stink. Anything on the UES/UWS is good, just below 86th street.

h_g to answer your question about desperate sellers- apartments with no furniture or a nursery are a good bet.
I don't think you're crazy, if you're talking about less than 1000 square feet and you don't mind doing some work on the place. I already see stuff like that on the UES. No, not on PRIME UES, but below 86th street nonetheless. Just set up a search criteria and get regular updates and you'll get start getting a better feel for the price movement.
Also, while 750 is really small for a 2 bedroom, I've seen some nice ones at 900. It depends on what kind of layout you want. If you want the second bedroom for an office or child's room and you don't mind having only 1 bathroom, you can get a lot out of the rest. Some people who would simply rather be in a large one bedroom than 2 bedroom with smaller rooms.