25 years of inventory? that can't be right, urbandigs.

Your math is not right. 26 MONTHS of supply, not years.

I knew I wasn't right! Still, what's the average? Where can I see average supply and closings for more than a few months?

Here's an inventory chart from Miller Samuel. http://tinyurl.com/5kvpl9

The bears would argue that the current inventory numbers are lower than "actual inventory", because 1) in new condo buildings where developers "hold back" inventory so that all of a building doesn't hit the market at once and 2) because it's December and many listings may have been "pulled" until after the holidays.

The trouble with argument #1 is that inventory in new devs was held back during the boom, so it's tough to know how much "more" is secretly piling up in the back. As far as #2, we typically see a flood of new listings in January.

ali r.
[downtown broker}

the number is never going to be perfect. but, two clear takeaways... its going up quickly, and will continue to go up as record numbers of apartments come on the market in 2008 and 2009 (stat from building trades council)... plus sales down 75%. Nothing "hidden" in that number.

Thanks Ali. No data will ever be 100% spot on, but I think Miller Samuel is pretty objective. I didn't post this to start a bulls vs. bears talk...

My only question is why does urban digs show 9000+ apartments and Miller Samuel shows 7000? Has inventory increased 2000 units this quarter?

"My only question is why does urban digs show 9000+ apartments and Miller Samuel shows 7000? Has inventory increased 2000 units this quarter?"

Because Urbandigs takes his data directly from StreetEasy data. One in the same, and StreetEasy is notoriously inaccurate about their data. Anyone can post and any borker can steal a posting which in turn skews their numbers.

BTW their are some on this site who (nyc1002) who have just found this out recently!

That's what happens when you apples to oranges I guess.

"My only question is why does urban digs show 9000+ apartments and Miller Samuel shows 7000? Has inventory increased 2000 units this quarter?"

If you look at urbandigs' (streeteasy) numbers at the beginning of October it is around 8,100. I generally rely on the Miller Samuel numbers and assume the streeteasy numbers are inflated by 1,000 units. So, I'd expect that inventory has increased by about 1,000 so far this quarter. Miller Samuel will produce their 4Q08 numbers in the first week of January.

Stop, Ruff. Digs' widget filters listings with no address, which is what you get when brokers go fishing with others' exclusives.

To answer your question properly, positivecarry, yes, the number was around 7.5k at the beginning of November. Look at the 6-month chart. The three month change is +27.05.

That's +27.05%.

I trust streeteasy's numbers more - they're not commissioned by Douglas Elliman.

the se widget removes

1) listings with no address; exclusives only
2) duplicates from broker switches
3) Only for island of Manhattan

Nothing is perfect because we have no standard MLS system. Of course there are many smaller firms that may not get caught here, unless they contact Streeteasy or SE finds them and tries to get the listings. Its a never ending job cleaning, updating this type of data from so many multiple sources.

Anyway, as I said when the widget was launched, its NOT perfect, and its best used to monitor trends. As for discrepancy with JM, not sure why. Not sure his source of data for Elliman reports. But lets see how they compare over next few quarters.

there is the key word... trends.

Something that consistently catches 75% of the market is going to show you direction...

I understand that Miller Samuel's arrangement with Douglas Elliman does not give Elliman sway over the numbers, but who knows. At least with Miller's numbers you have an historical foundation of analysis from which to examine trends in the market. His "description" of the numbers (in his report and to the press) sometimes glosses over the negative trends and provides cover for the broker-babble, but the numbers are what they are. You just have to study them.

Streeteasy only began producing quarterly reports as of 2Q08 and are still working out the bugs. Urbandigs has been working with them on his widget to better screen out the noise. When streeteasy numbers appear reliable and can be back-tested five-to-ten years, then I will be sold.

Exactly. That's all I'm looking for. The trend is your friend.

We have about 7 months supply of inventory in Manhattan with bursting at the scenes pent up demand, waiting to purchase. The economy will get better as it has each time for the past 75 years. What exactly are you bears hoping for????

Stevef,
You are in a frickin fantasy land.

positive...that's your answer??...no wonder your a renter.

please no comments spelling bee winners, i know it's you're

I am by NO means a permabull, but I'm smart enough to understand that when we have years like 2000-2007, it's bound to come back.

I did not start this thread to debate retards like SteveF, so if you don't have anything to contribute then go elsewhere. All I'm asking about is data. Who can be trusted, and how to view our market.

"The economy will get better as it has each time for the past 75 years."

And every bubble will pop as it has each time for the past 75 years.

Are you trying to claim it won't this time?

it always becomes a bull vs bear debate

UD - inventory does matter, not standalone, but in combination with the uptake. Ergo it must be a b.v.b. debate.

> it always becomes a bull vs bear debate

Well, at least we can agree its not standing still...

SteveF, what pent up demand? Didn't most of them get disqualified or they now cannot afford these insane prices? You probably meant "bursting at the seams" also with your preemptive comment not to correct your spelling.

positivecarry..i'm sure anyone reading these boards who has a mentally challeneged family member just love your flagrant use of the word "retard". Dude, you're the one who needs help. Get wipe your ass.

clean, most brokers, even UD have big demand waiting to see what happens. I think Urban said he has 28 buyers waiting. Also, IMO the current media bombardment of negative news is making most buyers afraid to pull the trigger. We have had this credit crunch fear sin August 07 = that is my pent up demand theory.

I couldn't find anything on JM's (Miller Samuel) website about where he gets his inventory numbers, but it did state this:
"Data Sources The primary data sources for Manhattan co-ops, condos and townhouses were ACRIS, Property Shark and other subscription services, managing agents, board members, lenders, buyers and sellers. The data used in these reports were collected during the normal course of business for Prudential Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel and do not necessarily represent all sales in their respective categories."

Seems to me then that streeteasy would be more accurate as it is a larger net. An MLS system would be nice though..

My worry is that there are sideline buyers, but either through fear or greed, will wait until the market sentiment is positive again before they pull the trigger. That could lead to an overcorrection downwards, followed by a quick V recovery back to fair value (intentionally not commenting on what that value is since that debate has been beaten to death elsewhere). Thing is, real estate being slow and illiquid, timing that V bottom is a fool's game.

Wow, 28 buyers from UD would not even make a dent on the inventory. There's probably more folks who walked away from their deposits than that number. The fact of the matter is that for most people the unit which they think they can afford and qualify before is not anymore that affordable, so the prices should either go down so people can afford to buy again or we just watch the inventory to keep piling up.

steveF, everyone is a buyer including current owners. It just depends on what price.

cleanslate: When you see commercials that say "4 out of 5 dentists agree..." do you yell at the TV for being so stupid, that there are thousands of dentists and who cares what a measly 4 think?

Sorry positivecarry, I know this isn't what you're looking for, but I have to comment on this "pent up demand" nonsense. Most of the people I knew (or met at open houses) who were looking to buy in 06/07 wanted to get in before they missed the bus. They knew that people who bought in 03 or before had seen their values double, and the over-the-top, endless hype told them it would happen again, and they'd better not miss it while they still had a chance. NO ONE THINKS THAT ANYMORE. Now it's just a matter of buying a home or not, in a market that will still be extremely expensive by most standards even with 50% declines. It's a completely different environment.

"in a market that will still be extremely expensive by most standards even with 50% declines. It's a completely different environment."

That applies to rents as well, no?

Dude, that's a poll. Who are you kidding? We can poll all brokers and see what they come up with. Besides, we know UD is more special than the others because he's got his own blog and he's pretty visible. You might actually wanna try going back to open houses again and see how many are attending them. Better yet, setup your StreetEasy alerts and see how many went into contract since mid-October. The fact of the matter is that the prices are insane, and the loans are harder to get, and people want better product for a good price. Gone are the days when you think you can cramp yourself in a one-bedroom so that in three years you can re-sell it for an insane price and upgrade. Bottom line is the prices gotta come down before you can even dupe people to look at your units, much less bid for it.

tech_guy, of course. Rents are also falling, but they weren't as overinflated as purchase prices to begin with.

Thing is, real estate being slow and illiquid, v-shaped recovery won't happen.

"That could lead to an overcorrection downwards, followed by a quick V recovery back to fair value (intentionally not commenting on what that value is since that debate has been beaten to death elsewhere). Thing is, real estate being slow and illiquid, timing that V bottom is a fool's game."

Its a fools game mainly because real estate doesn't HAVE v bottoms.

Stock markets do... expecting one out of RE is insane...

> steveF, everyone is a buyer including current owners. It just depends on what price.

Problem is, when you finally hit that price, folks waiting for it then expects it to go even lower.... which is generally why you get overshooting.

Actually, I think Im up to 31 or so now, but this includes buyers I have known for up to 12 months already and decided to wait for whatever reason, then the sh*t hit the fan.

If I convert 1/3 of these to sales in 2009, I would be shocked! I did 12 deals this year, if I did half of that next year I would prob be happy. I set goals, but realistic ones. If this city takes the brunt of the economic pain in 2009, its fairly unrealistic to expect most of those leads (they are just leads after all) to alter their plans

I just expect the year to be slow for everyone. Nobody likes bear markets. Everything slows. But Ill continue to talk about it on UD.

"Its a fools game mainly because real estate doesn't HAVE v bottoms. Stock markets do... expecting one out of RE is insane..."

You don't think the market will overcorrect downwards? You just said above that it will, glad we agree. You don't think there are a lot of buyers who will jump in when overall economic sentiment turns positive? You've said earlier that you *are* one such buyer, aren't you? Call it whatever phrase you want, but those 2 sound awfully like a V-shaped bottom to me.

There you are SteveF... I tried looking for you in "sideliners." Current market is one of a stand-off between buyers and sellers. I believe you are looking at the "inflated" demand caused by America's obsession with RE in the last 5 years and easy credit, if one was to look at "household" formation and get rid of second and investment properties from the equation then you'd have probably 10% of the volume in 2007... so say good-bye to all the "flippers" who you believe that are "pent-up" bc the reality of it is they are not coming back.... maybe you should try to get some of these pent-up people with all this money to buy some tulips...

> You don't think the market will overcorrect downwards? You just said above that it will,
> glad we agree.

Not sure why you equate v bottom with overcorrection....

> You don't think there are a lot of buyers who will jump in when overall economic sentiment turns
> positive?

Nope.

> You've said earlier that you *are* one such buyer, aren't you?

If you had read the full posts, you would have noticed that I said becoming even less and less likely. Thats how these things work.

> Call it whatever phrase you want, but those 2 sound awfully like a V-shaped bottom to me.

I imagine only because you've never been through a bottom.

Those don't sound anything like V-bottoms to me.

Its the pejorative use of "renter" from the post 2003 buyers (when the math stopped making sense) that is a hoot. This pent up demand thing was true, until Lehman went belly up and Goldman and MS become commercial banks. The only reason to buy after 2003 was an expectation of appreciation. Read Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds .

maybe this is the v-bottom he's talking about...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=XLK&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

real estate is not liquid enough to have V bottoms and recoveries. Its more of an L, a muddled L, with an initial adjustment to the base of the L, and then the asset class becomes so UNSEXY, for lack of a better word, that those who originally thought of buying, change their minds after seeing the pain some go through.

As long as the system of credit wont duplicate itself like it was from 2002-2006, which I dont see coming back for a heck of a long time, there is little to no risk of a V shaped housing recovery here in Manhattan. We are early in the ball game, maybe 2nd or 3rd inning. The real pain has yet to hit. Wait until the comps from deals being done now filter through the system and media gets a hold of it, and appraisers start pinning new appraisals to these initial adjustment sales from such an illiquid market.

What fundamentals will drive liquidity back to this market? I certainly dont see fundamentals improving. Maybe its just me

> Maybe its just me

No, I think you pretty much nailed it.

Most folks just don't remember a housing bust, when the average person thinks of RE as a dirty word...

urbandigs and nyc10022 can we be friends? :)

friends are for suckers.

Doh, thats the Oban talkin

That's it I'm going to the dark side.. I'm gonna be a RE Broker and be a cheerleader whooping it up as my team tries to rally back from 0 to 42 with 2 minutes remaining... yeah friends are for suckers... I'm a true NYCer for christ/jewish/mohammid/hindu sakes.... I hope it got all the religions in there...

ha