Housing Starts 650k, off off peak of 2.2 Million

I meant off of

Completions skyrocketed... more supply short term

Housing starts peaked this year in Manhattan... and it also happens to be the biggest inventory increase year, and next year 2nd biggest.

So, developers only 3 years behind here...

It's not the housing starts that worries me, it's stuff like the fed cutting rates to zero. We're in some real trouble here. New construction can always become rentals. Credit has dried up. That's going to keep starts and lending low for as long as it takes us to stop bleding defaults on cc's, autos, homes etc....

10,000 of those starts were all in Williamsburg and it still doesnt dent the available unbuilt capacity on top of that toxic waste dump

" it's stuff like the fed cutting rates to zero. We're in some real trouble here."

positive,
Please expound. I know you're a finance person & I am not, so, would like to hear more. Thanks

It's more of the big picture I'm worried about. Whether housingin NYC goes up or down and by what % is not as interesting to me as the fact that we're at 0% fed funds because we're doing all we can to stop this slide and it's not working. Nothing's working. If consumer spending is 2/3rd's of GDP and people stop spending, we're going to be in a deflationary spiral, the dollar will plummet as people stop supporting our spending (buying T bills) and we'll be in a world of hurt. There's no way to say we know where this is going, and I doubt the worst will happen, but no one wants to think the worst possible outcome could actually happen. That alone is bad enough.

positivecarry - i think that you are in tin foil hat area in terms of your fear and worrying.

Yes, you should have bought Manhattan RE in January. Petrfitz said so...

Maybe so, but if you would have told me 1 year ago that iceland would be bankrupt (their currency worthless) and their would be no more investment banks, I would have thought YOU were crazy.

But the RE bubble is what caused those other factors, so you didn't need to predict them to see a RE crash coming. The bubble itself was very plain to see..

unless you are perfitz, of course.