All in less than 6 months. This would be the fastest fall of any market. ----- The most rosy-eyed brokers said it couldn't happen here. They said Manhattan was a different beast, and that its supply of apartments was kept in check by the island's rocky shores, so demand for those units would always be strong, and prices elevated. They pointed out Manhattan's sales prices hitting an all-time high... [more]
All in less than 6 months. This would be the fastest fall of any market.
-----
The most rosy-eyed brokers said it couldn't happen here. They said Manhattan was a different beast, and that its supply of apartments was kept in check by the island's rocky shores, so demand for those units would always be strong, and prices elevated. They pointed out Manhattan's sales prices hitting an all-time high last spring, months after the national housing market began collapsing, as a sign of its fundamental resilience.
But it turns out they may have overstated things.
As anecdotal evidence about fall sales seeps out, well before brokerage reports about fourth-quarter transactions, evidence is mounting that not only have Manhattan housing prices slipped, they have done so by around 20 percent, which is a much more precipitous plunge than expected.
"Both residential and commercial real estate markets have softened substantially since the last report, most notably in Manhattan," said the edition of the Federal Reserve Board's "beige book" that came out earlier this month.
The report, which looks at market conditions in various cities eight times a year, found that "the prices of Manhattan co-ops and condos are reported to have fallen by 15 to 20 percent since mid-summer, though it is hard to get a clear handle on prices due to thin volume. Much of the recent activity is reportedly from desperate sellers."
Jonathan Miller, president of appraisal firm Miller Samuel, which provided data for the Fed's analysis based on closing prices after a series of confidence-shaking bank failures and federal bailouts, said the drops are somewhat unsurprising. Prices historically fall after sales volume slows, and volume has ebbed considerably in recent months.
Indeed, sales have been off about 28 percent for the first three quarters of this year, versus the same year-ago period, Miller said.
"A drop in transactions always precedes a drop in prices, because it leads to [an] increase in inventory," he said. "It's really a canary in the subway."
And no sector of Manhattan seems immune, including high-end units, or those priced upwards of $10 million, which had previously propped up the market's average prices, brokers said. Prices of resales, as opposed to new development, which had shown some resistance to price dips, now also seem to be slipping, brokers added.
Of course, this fall's sales prices aren't official until the results are actually recorded, which likely will take place over the next few weeks.
When they are revealed, the market could deteriorate further, said Noah Rosenblatt, who publishes the Web site UrbanDigs, and who in November concluded that prices were down 25 percent from their 2007 peak, based on his own anecdotal reporting from his real estate business at Halstead Property, where he is a vice president.
That downward pressure will result because potential buyers will suddenly have useful hard-and-fast yardsticks by which to base their offers. Once they realize a co-op in a particular Upper East Side high-rise sold for 20 percent lower than its $1 million asking price, at $800,000, they might submit a lowered bid, too.
"Just like in the derivatives market, there will be price discoveries, and new benchmarks will be set," Rosenblatt said. "It could create an adverse feedback loop."
Not all brokers are convinced that sales prices have slipped so far. Some also say that the market may have bottomed out in late November, as open-house attendance seems to have crept up since then, in historically quiet December.
And although end-of-year bonuses for Wall Street workers, who make up a quarter of most brokers' clients, could be off as much as 50 percent this year, they will still be handed out, leading to some hope for January.
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Response by nyc10022
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
Yeah, even Miami/Vegas/etc. took a year to go that far.
At this pace, thats a 60% decline, I believe...
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Response by dwell
over 17 years ago
Posts: 2341
Member since: Jul 2008
Yee Ha!!!!!!! Reality acknowledged.
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Response by stevejhx
over 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008
"which is a much more precipitous plunge than expected."
Not really. I said 50% a year ago, which was the peak.
"most notably in Manhattan"
Buy now, or be priced out forever!
"Not all brokers are convinced that sales prices have slipped so far."
They wouldn't be.
"And although end-of-year bonuses for Wall Street workers, who make up a quarter of most brokers' clients, could be off as much as 50 percent this year, they will still be handed out, leading to some hope for January."
LMAO.
2003 - HERE WE COME!
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Response by w67thstreet
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
Stevie have some gonads.... 2000 here we come!
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Response by i_want_to_buy_in_09
over 17 years ago
Posts: 113
Member since: Dec 2008
what was it back then $700psf in Manhattan?
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Response by stevejhx
over 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008
$700 psf in Manhattan was 2002.
2000 - I'm not willing to make that call right now. I know at 350 Bleecker where I used to live, the apartment below mine that sold for $675k in 2003 is now listed for $1.14 million. 15% below a lesser apartment (2P) sold last year. I would definitely say it would fall to $700k w/i a year. $500k? I don't know.
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Response by w67thstreet
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
09... in 2000 you could get decent deals for $400 to $500psf range... no need to keep fingers crossed... we'll get there w/o any luck.
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Response by nyc10022
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
I remember the late 90s, when decent 2 bedrooms were $500k...
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Response by anonymous
over 17 years ago
AN accelerated price decline to reflect the current market conditions. does not mean it will continue at this rate. besides, who would listen to someone that's a professional translator who is not in demand at all and has nothing but free time because his services are so little in demand. not to mention the failure of a book that he tried to market.
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Response by dwell
over 17 years ago
Posts: 2341
Member since: Jul 2008
stevexjh,
you're pathetic. you're claim to fame is leeching off of steve? how sad. be man enough to post under your own name & say whatever you want to say. this "stevexj" is cowardly.
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Response by nyc10022
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
denial is a powerful thing...
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Response by julia
over 17 years ago
Posts: 2841
Member since: Feb 2007
NY Magazine has an article based on Streeteasy stats that the market (except for upperManhattan) has not gone down. 401 East 74..alcove studio just listed $479k. I do see and hear from friends that rentals are going down. Landlords are willing to give free months, pay agents fee, etc.
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Response by aboutready
over 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
I remember the mid-1990s when $250k (or sometimes even less, depending on the neighborhood) got you a decent two bedroom. I got a 900 sf two bedroom, one bath for $105k in 1995. We won't even discuss what it got you in Park Slope.
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Response by anonymous
over 17 years ago
Didn't know there was copyright protection on street easy names.
Called freedom of speech and protected under the First Ammendment. Even protects stupid speech like yours.
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Response by aboutready
over 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
Somebody forgot his meds again.
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Response by jgr
over 17 years ago
Posts: 345
Member since: Dec 2008
LALALALALA I can't hear you!
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Response by julia
over 17 years ago
Posts: 2841
Member since: Feb 2007
stevexjh this is a real estate blog why don't you leave stevejhx's name alone and stopping playing your games.
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Response by anonymous
over 17 years ago
and this is the board you whack jobs spend half your day on.
and i'm the crazy one? if i haven't exposed the fraud and facade of this site then you special ed students will never get it.
time to get off the little yellow school bus and join the real world now.
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Response by jsrose
over 17 years ago
Posts: 5
Member since: Oct 2008
I read the NY Magazine article and thought that their data was not as fresh as some of the better, up-to-the-minute information on streeteasy TALK. . . excluding some of the bizarre outliers, imposters and a few whose confidence in their own logic seems unwarranted.
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Response by jgr
over 17 years ago
Posts: 345
Member since: Dec 2008
I didn't know posting on streeteasy was covered by the First Amendment...man you sure have all the angles figured out! Just go home, you're laughable.
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Response by nyc10022
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
"NY Magazine has an article based on Streeteasy stats that the market (except for upperManhattan) has not gone down. 401 East 74..alcove studio just listed $479k. I do see and hear from friends that rentals are going down. Landlords are willing to give free months, pay agents fee, etc. "
Julia, shut the f up already, your shilling is old.
The data is out that Manhattan medians are down 20%. If you can't find price cuts, you are a complete moron.
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Response by dwell
over 17 years ago
Posts: 2341
Member since: Jul 2008
"Didn't know there was copyright protection on street easy names.
Called freedom of speech and protected under the First Ammendment"
Wrong!!! If I took you to court, I would win an intellectual property (copyright infringment) case BECAUSE your name confuses the public; more so, you chose that name to INTENTIONALLY confuse others.
Also, dummy, the 1st amend applies only to the government's impinging on free speech. This is a privately owned web site.
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Response by anonymous
over 17 years ago
not only ARE YOU UGLY BUT YOU ARE DUMB! You must have really been bad in your previous life.
Privately owned *newspapers media are all protected under freedom of speech. Freedom of the press is also the First ammendment. Guess you failed history.
Copyright infringement has to involve a loss of revenue or property or benefit. There is no benefit or revenue from posting on streeteasy. You really are dumb. Must be a jailhouse lawyer. Are you also currently advising Gov. Rod Blagojevich?
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Response by dwell
over 17 years ago
Posts: 2341
Member since: Jul 2008
I won't argue with a mentally ill person. Seriously, please get some help.
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Response by nyc10022
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
Dwell is correct.... there was a case with a college web site in the last 6 months, and they revealed the identity of the anonymous poster who had slagged a woman, and he's now liable.
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Response by evnyc
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1844
Member since: Aug 2008
Not to feed the troll, but I'd love to see where exactly it states that identity theft is protected as a free speech issue. I don't buy that for a second. Also, everyone else on this board has an equal right to tell you how much they dislike your tactics or how unwelcome your comments are.
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Response by Trompiloco
over 17 years ago
Posts: 585
Member since: Jul 2008
Julia is not a moron. Not particularly bright either. 70% would say she's a realtor. The other 30% she is an owner who bought after 06. She's definitely not somebody looking forward to buy.
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Response by aboutready
over 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
stevejhx, in TRD Carrie Chiang (Corcoran, I believe) actually said that she believes we're at 2002-03 pricing. This was some ridiculous article mainly quoting high-end Sotheby's brokers who insist that someone is going to come along in the next year or so and spend over $50M on a property, and I just skimmed it, so she may have been referring only to the luxury market, but still.
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Response by dwell
over 17 years ago
Posts: 2341
Member since: Jul 2008
These luxury RE prices are stupid. Even billionaires don't want to throw away their $.
Yeah, even Miami/Vegas/etc. took a year to go that far.
At this pace, thats a 60% decline, I believe...
Yee Ha!!!!!!! Reality acknowledged.
"which is a much more precipitous plunge than expected."
Not really. I said 50% a year ago, which was the peak.
"most notably in Manhattan"
Buy now, or be priced out forever!
"Not all brokers are convinced that sales prices have slipped so far."
They wouldn't be.
"And although end-of-year bonuses for Wall Street workers, who make up a quarter of most brokers' clients, could be off as much as 50 percent this year, they will still be handed out, leading to some hope for January."
LMAO.
2003 - HERE WE COME!
Stevie have some gonads.... 2000 here we come!
what was it back then $700psf in Manhattan?
$700 psf in Manhattan was 2002.
2000 - I'm not willing to make that call right now. I know at 350 Bleecker where I used to live, the apartment below mine that sold for $675k in 2003 is now listed for $1.14 million. 15% below a lesser apartment (2P) sold last year. I would definitely say it would fall to $700k w/i a year. $500k? I don't know.
09... in 2000 you could get decent deals for $400 to $500psf range... no need to keep fingers crossed... we'll get there w/o any luck.
I remember the late 90s, when decent 2 bedrooms were $500k...
AN accelerated price decline to reflect the current market conditions. does not mean it will continue at this rate. besides, who would listen to someone that's a professional translator who is not in demand at all and has nothing but free time because his services are so little in demand. not to mention the failure of a book that he tried to market.
stevexjh,
you're pathetic. you're claim to fame is leeching off of steve? how sad. be man enough to post under your own name & say whatever you want to say. this "stevexj" is cowardly.
denial is a powerful thing...
NY Magazine has an article based on Streeteasy stats that the market (except for upperManhattan) has not gone down. 401 East 74..alcove studio just listed $479k. I do see and hear from friends that rentals are going down. Landlords are willing to give free months, pay agents fee, etc.
I remember the mid-1990s when $250k (or sometimes even less, depending on the neighborhood) got you a decent two bedroom. I got a 900 sf two bedroom, one bath for $105k in 1995. We won't even discuss what it got you in Park Slope.
Didn't know there was copyright protection on street easy names.
Called freedom of speech and protected under the First Ammendment. Even protects stupid speech like yours.
Somebody forgot his meds again.
LALALALALA I can't hear you!
stevexjh this is a real estate blog why don't you leave stevejhx's name alone and stopping playing your games.
and this is the board you whack jobs spend half your day on.
and i'm the crazy one? if i haven't exposed the fraud and facade of this site then you special ed students will never get it.
time to get off the little yellow school bus and join the real world now.
I read the NY Magazine article and thought that their data was not as fresh as some of the better, up-to-the-minute information on streeteasy TALK. . . excluding some of the bizarre outliers, imposters and a few whose confidence in their own logic seems unwarranted.
I didn't know posting on streeteasy was covered by the First Amendment...man you sure have all the angles figured out! Just go home, you're laughable.
"NY Magazine has an article based on Streeteasy stats that the market (except for upperManhattan) has not gone down. 401 East 74..alcove studio just listed $479k. I do see and hear from friends that rentals are going down. Landlords are willing to give free months, pay agents fee, etc. "
Julia, shut the f up already, your shilling is old.
The data is out that Manhattan medians are down 20%. If you can't find price cuts, you are a complete moron.
"Didn't know there was copyright protection on street easy names.
Called freedom of speech and protected under the First Ammendment"
Wrong!!! If I took you to court, I would win an intellectual property (copyright infringment) case BECAUSE your name confuses the public; more so, you chose that name to INTENTIONALLY confuse others.
Also, dummy, the 1st amend applies only to the government's impinging on free speech. This is a privately owned web site.
not only ARE YOU UGLY BUT YOU ARE DUMB! You must have really been bad in your previous life.
Privately owned *newspapers media are all protected under freedom of speech. Freedom of the press is also the First ammendment. Guess you failed history.
Copyright infringement has to involve a loss of revenue or property or benefit. There is no benefit or revenue from posting on streeteasy. You really are dumb. Must be a jailhouse lawyer. Are you also currently advising Gov. Rod Blagojevich?
I won't argue with a mentally ill person. Seriously, please get some help.
Dwell is correct.... there was a case with a college web site in the last 6 months, and they revealed the identity of the anonymous poster who had slagged a woman, and he's now liable.
Not to feed the troll, but I'd love to see where exactly it states that identity theft is protected as a free speech issue. I don't buy that for a second. Also, everyone else on this board has an equal right to tell you how much they dislike your tactics or how unwelcome your comments are.
Julia is not a moron. Not particularly bright either. 70% would say she's a realtor. The other 30% she is an owner who bought after 06. She's definitely not somebody looking forward to buy.
stevejhx, in TRD Carrie Chiang (Corcoran, I believe) actually said that she believes we're at 2002-03 pricing. This was some ridiculous article mainly quoting high-end Sotheby's brokers who insist that someone is going to come along in the next year or so and spend over $50M on a property, and I just skimmed it, so she may have been referring only to the luxury market, but still.
These luxury RE prices are stupid. Even billionaires don't want to throw away their $.