The First Hundred Days

I predict that the Obama love fest will end by March 31st when everyone realizes he is just another politician.

i predict that there is no possible way that Obama can screw up all aspects of America as badly as Bush and the Republicans did.

"I predict that there is no possible way that Obama can screw up all aspects of America as badly as Bush and the Republicans did."

Another one for my list of funny pertfitz quotes. This one might take a little more time to demonstrate - the January "buy now" was just too quick and too easy - but its going to be interesting to review in a few years...

If you think things can't get worse, wow, I guess you weren't in the country during the Carter and democrat 70s...

I predict that Obama will issue an edict proclaiming that Manhattan real estate can never fall in value, so it won't.

I think things could get worse, but I'd doubt the blame could be laid at Obama's doorstep, at least not for the first couple of years. Carter and Obama seem to be two very different breeds of politicians. One very idealistic and a control freak, the other more of a team builder and a pragmatist. Bush has been horrendously, embarrasingly inept at what he ought to have been doing, and frighteningly effective at accomplishing things he ought not have. We shall see what the future holds.

I predict this is the year stevejhx finally decides to leave his apartment and try and make some real friends.

But Obama has already made clear he's in the pocket of the unions.... he wrote the bill that trades democracy for some extra $$$ in union leader pockets... the Employee Free Choice Act.

The only thing right now between it and total destruction of small businesses becoming medium and big business is a senate filibuster...

Obama is going to sign legislation making it illegal for real estate values to fall. It's going to be called the "Buy Now or Be Priced Out Forever" Act of 2009.

I predict:

a) My wife and I will be paying more taxes before his term is over
b) He will pull out all stops and we still won't be out of the recession (depression?) by the end of his term

"If you think things can't get worse, wow, I guess you weren't in the country during the Carter and democrat 70s.."

Carter was prez 4 years in the 1970's. Republicans the other 6, including, shall we recall, the resignation in disgrace of Nixon. And Reagan presided over a recession (and the biggest expansion in the nation debt until, well, Bush II). THe 1970's recession was from 1973–1975, triggered by the oil embargo. The recession under Reagan was 1980–1982, triggered by the Iranian revolution jacking up oil again. How these recessions could be tied to a single politician is beyond me.

Obama will be a hands-on president, not leaving it to the vp for the answers. Not sure if he'll be able to change that much but at least he'll try.

I predict the Second Avenue subway will finally get the funding to complete the project no small thanks to the infrastructure stimulus plan.

I also predict that President Obama will not be too concerned about the future value of bloated $700K one bedroom Manhattan apts. BTW, he is also not exactly a friend to WS which is a positive i my book.

serge - I've always said it will take a miracle to get the 2nd Ave. completed in my lifetime. Maybe this is it?

jgr - your first prediction is almost certainly true, regarding your second one, let's just hope that pulling out all the stops doesn't fail.

Bush has already shown that Republicans are more of a disaster than anything that happened under Carter.

we can only hope that obama can undo some of the Republican disaster.

Type3, you seem to forget that in 1980 the rate of inflation was around 14% and Reagan didn't take office until January 81. Carter was a terrible president. Did you forget the Iranian hostage crisis and the failed attempt to rescue them. America was in a deep malaise and Reagan led us out of it. How much was his doing is debatable but he was in charge.
Someone else commented about the growth of the debt but where were the Democrats in Congress that held the majority. They could cut spending but didn't. Where are they today for that matter. They show no interest in cutting spending. As for Iraq, didn't Hillary, Barney Frank, Chucky Shumer vote to give W. the ability to send troops over there. They too are culpable for that fiasco.
BTW, I'm no fan of W, or of either party for that matter.

Leave personal politics out of it. Obama being in office isn't going to do a thing for manhattan real estate. It may help the stock market but that's a separate discussion.

To put this in historical context - after the largest increase in real estate prices in the last CENTURY we are entering (or already in) the second depression in the last CENTURY. Anyone who thinks prices in manhattan are going to decline less than 50% peak to trough is a complete moron. I'm not trying to bash anyone (well, maybe a little) - but I'm being sincere.

I think our economy is a runaway train & there's not much that the Prez can do to stop it. I think prices will fall in 2009 Q1. In 2009 Q1, some will buy, but many will still wait & see if we have bottomed. I think the Manhattan RE market will bottom at the end of 2009, maybe beginning of 2010.

I guess I'm a complete moron. Oh well. I guess I can forget about going to business school to get my MBA since I'm a complete moron and am not capable of attending graduate school.

Alpine,
What?
Go get your MBA. What the prob?

The fact that you need to go to business school means you're a moron.

Obama will not be able to do anything to help Manhattan real estate. However, he will serve to re-brand America in a manner that makes the USA more appealing to citizens of other nations (e.g. Arnold Palmer endorsing Goodyear). This, coupled with the ever weakening dollar, may help to stimulate some foreign, and domestic, tourism, which would be great considering it is now Manhattan's most important industry.

"Type3, you seem to forget that in 1980 the rate of inflation was around 14% and Reagan didn't take office until January 81. Carter was a terrible president."

Not nearly as bad as Reagan. You are talking about stagflation which was a result of the earlier, pre-Carter era. It took years to get out of it, and it wasn't any genius plan from Reagan. Not that Carter had any great ideas for it.

"Did you forget the Iranian hostage crisis and the failed attempt to rescue them."

Yeah, Carter sure was responsible for a failed military attempt. And I'd go with that over selling ARMs to the damn terrorists to get the hostages out. Reagan shamed America, and it is a joke that he is so revered today. He bankrupted the country, began the coddling of the rich and dismantling of the middle class (hasn't THAT gone well), and established bin Laden and Saddam Hussein in the Middle East. So many of our geopolitical and economic problems were caused by Reagan's idiotic policies. "Poor dear, there's nothing between his ears." - Margaret Thatcher

However, I do agree that he didn't cause the 1980's recession, just as Carter didn't cause the 1970's recession.

"America was in a deep malaise and Reagan led us out of it. How much was his doing is debatable but he was in charge. "

Reagan led the country in terms of self image, but like so many things, image is not substance. 5 years ago American capitalism was the envy of the world. Now it's a joke. The truth is, it was a joke when we were all patting ourselves on the back. And the 1980's "uplift" was equally delusional. It was the beginning of HUGE government dominated by the military industrial complex, massive debt, truly stupid foreign policy that is haunting us, killing us today.

But I've given up convincing people about Reagan. So, if you think he's the ****, then we'll just have to agree to disagree.

As for Obama, even if he makes every right call possible, his first 2-4 years will be in a wrecked economy. He'll be very lucky to win re-election. As for Manhattan RE, it will play out on it's own cycle now. Bubble has popped, and if there isn't another to replace it, nothing will prevent falling prices, likely for several years.

i predict w67thstreet will be admitted to the G Bldg for the 9th time this year