Affordability is NOT Here!

But Manhattan median fell 20%... And the metro is down double digits per Case Shiller.

What's the point?

But, I agree, affordability isn't here.. yet. 20% is just the beginning.

alpine292... don't worry those McMansion on the palisades will never go down... just enjoy the large pool and media room...

Why r u running away from the original post... "keep it real."

Yep 2nd that ... .20% is just beginning...

How about "Borkers Gone Wild"?

how about "brokers gone laid off"? oh baby, that's what I want to see....
they're responsible for this mess.

09.... I just can't help myself.... "Borkers... I serve my clients."
"Borkers... bend over and I'll show you the view"

My sense is that Manhattan real estate began what will be a steep decline in prices beginning in June '08. This process accelerated in September, and I would suspect that by Q2 '09 prices will be down 30-35%, and by the end of '09, probably close to 40%
McMansions in Bergen County Peaked in '06, and have probably come down around 20-25% from peak prices. I suspect that the McMansions may have another 5-10% to go, but at least the McMansions do give you some qualities that are hard to replicate with a rental. Also, as Manhattan quality of life erodes, I suspect that many with means will be investigating McMansions, and when they see what you can get for the price of a 2300 three bedroom, we might see McMansions leveling out by Q2 as many from Manhattan flee to the burbs.

Bergen County prices are not down 25%. They are down roughly about 10% from the peak. YOu might see some larger declines in the more distant parts of NJ, like Passaic and Sussex Counties though.

How many threads to you need to start to exhibit your denial?

We get that your head is buried in the sand. Why do you need to broadcast that to all?

I know about this subject as I recently bought a McMansion in Bergen County. I got 10% off ask on a new house, and I had the builder add in many features at no cost to me. I know that the asking was at least 10% below what McMansions were going for 18 months before I went to contract.

I know the Bergen market off the back of my hand so I am not in denial. You are. If you know of Bergen County McMansions selling for 25% discounts, please tell me their address and I will buy one of them tomorrow.

Don't bother, he's lying.... we already gave him the Manhattan cuts he said he was looking for - hell, an entire thread - and he came up with excuses for why each one "didn't count".

Above 87th isn't prime. Too close to the river. I don't like that color.

It is denial, plain and simple.

OK. Go to anateisenberg.com. Check out some McMansions that sold in Cresskill this year. You will see 25% and greater discounts. Click on the icon, sold report. I seem to remember one on Truman that sold for a nice discount.

No, that one is too big. That one is white, white doesn't count. That one is too close to a McDonalds.

Alpine. Go to any town, Englewood Cliffs, Alpine, Cresskill, Tenafly Demarest. You will see houses that sold for 25% below ask.

Bergen County Comp Killers:

RUTHERFORD, 30 GARFIELD PL
SOLD: $459,000 3/17/2005
SOLD: $375,000 12/5/2008

RIDGEWOOD, 1024 HILLCREST RD
SOLD: $629,900 1/25/2005
SOLD: $600,000 12/8/2008

RIDGEFIELD PARK, 308 5TH ST
SOLD: $334,000 1/9/2004
SOLD: $285,000 12/5/2008

PARAMUS, 335 BULLARD AVE
SOLD: $1,070,000 1/26/2006
SOLD: $945,000 12/12/2008

OAKLAND, 124 MANITO AVE
SOLD: $540,000 7/23/2004
SOLD: $447,900 12/11/2008

glen rock, 50 roxbury pl
sold: $700,000 3/28/2006
sold: $635,000 12/10/2008

allendale, 20 beresford rd
sold: $906,000 3/20/2006
sold: $810,000 12/9/2008

Ridgeoowd seems to be holding up the best. Probabaly because it has direct NYC train service.

You just gave some 15-20% examples.
And remember the peak was in June 2006... some of these are back to 2004.

So, thanks, you're doing an awful good job of proving the point here...

These are not the chops I am talking about. Anyone interested can go to www.anateisenberg.com and click on the icon "The Sold Report." If you do, you will see 1,000,000 price chops in almost all towns, and many cuts of 25% or more. Back to my original point. Bergen County peaked in 06 and saw major chops in 07 and 08, and as such it is close to bottom because it is off about 25% from peak. I propose that in the coming months, as families flee Manhattan, you will see a floor put under these areas.

But you said that McMansions are down 25%. ANd I can assure you that nothing below $700,000 is a McMansion.

Wow, denial quickly moves into lying. mh23 didn't say that...

"McMansions in Bergen County Peaked in '06, and have probably come down around 20-25% from peak prices"

Bigger point is, you've absolutely lost the point here alpine. Your scrambling just sort of proves the point. Denial city.

Good luck in getting a 25% discount in Ridgewood. LEt me know how that works out. ANd Ridegewood is where EVERYONE wants to live because of the great schools and train service to NYC.

Gocha, first it was metro. Then it was only bergen county. Then that was proven wrong, and now its "just ridgewood".

But don't bother pulling stats on that one, because then he'll come back with "i mean just on this one block".

I guess its true... there is going to be spectacular denial all the way to the bottom.

Most houses in Bergen County are only down 10%. You can't judge the entire market based on a few unusual sales.

Here's a nice graphic for all the denialists.

http://www.nowandfutures.com/download/JapanLandPrices-2006-Autumn1.0(mish).jpg

"Most houses in Bergen County are only down 10%. You can't judge the entire market based on a few unusual sales."

How comes its always the folks who say "you can't judge by a couple of examples" who then go on to give a stat based on... well, a couple of examples.... which are usually bogus anyway.

Denial is a powerful thing.

Here is one that is a good representation of the Bergen market.

10 Trellis Court in Mahwah:

Sold Decemeber 2008: $850,000

SOld June 2005: $895,000

I can find tons of similar examples, but I have a dog to walk :-)

Keep it going, you are just proving the point. Case Shiller went UP 9.2% from June 2005 to June 2006.
So, if this thing just kept pace with the market, that would mean a 15% decline from peak in June 2006.

Nice job! Thats a bigger decline than the overal market figures we gave.

> I can find tons of similar examples,

I have no doubt. In a market down 13% overall (really closer to 15-20 when you factor in October/Nov/Dec, which were the first post-panic months), I'm sure you'll be able to find a ton of 15% and more price drop examples.

Keep 'em coming!

BTW, did anyone notice that alpine's "the market is fine" example just showed 5% BELOW 2005 prices?

Alpine, are you okay there? You're 10 pounds of crazy in a 5 pound bag tonight.

My favorite line here is the 0.1% down in the Northeast and the implication that we are doing swell in Manhattan. This from the same owners who laughed at the national/regional numbers in 2007 because Manhattan was so different. Ah, hypocrites.

Denial does come hand in hand with hypocrisy...