Bellmarc owner seeing increased buyer activity, any brokers care to comment

http://ny.therealdeal.com/articles/bellmarc-sheds-corporate-hq

i would also be very interested in what brokers are actually seeing.

What a crock! There have been exactly 3 business days since the new year.

"Hoping to cut costs in the "recession," Bellmarc Realty has closed its corporate headquarters at 352 Park Avenue South, between 25th and 26th streets, according to Neil Binder, the company's co-founder."

Sounds like they have TONS of confidence in the market.

3 business days?? so no one shops for homes on the weekend....ya that makes sense.

Okay, 6 business days.

I should point out that "buyer activity" does NOT translate to sales. "Buyer activity" is a very broad term and can include real estate "tourists" (people looking w/ no intention of buying).

stevejhx
22 minutes ago
ignore this person

What a crock! There have been exactly 3 business days since the new year.

"Hoping to cut costs in the "recession," Bellmarc Realty has closed its corporate headquarters at 352 Park Avenue South, between 25th and 26th streets, according to Neil Binder, the company's co-founder."

Sounds like they have TONS of confidence in the market.

--------------------

what he said...

Seriously, this Belmarc guy needs to at least wait 2 or 3 weeks before making a comment like that in order to get even some credibility.

We had a mega drop, 75% decline in sales.

I should HOPE it increased. Say it even doubled.. we're still 50% down.

Just sounds like a lot of brokerspeak to me...

wait, I just noticed this part...

"Hoping to cut costs in the "recession," Bellmarc Realty has closed its corporate headquarters at 352 Park Avenue South, between 25th and 26th streets, according to Neil Binder, the company's co-founder. "

everything is fine, everything is great, more activity.

Oh yeah, and we're going bankrupt...

Neil Binder is a former Iraqi Minsister of Information.

he's hopeful because of what he's seen over the last six days? i hope he doesn't have a lot of debt on that company.

hahahaahahhahahahahahahaahahahhahahaahahaahahahaha!

Steve.. you're losing it. it's 4 business days and a weekend. Don't you know, it just takes one sale to put in a bottom.

hahahahahahaahahaahahahaahahahaha!

alpine292... for a semi-bull, you I like... Iraqi info minister.. was he executed? If not, I think he's got a job as Agentrachel's assistant. :)

We will win this real eatate war! We will send home your sons home in luxury W-burg condos and FIDI studios!! As I speak, our Bellmarc warriors are defeating the low-ballers, God willing, and creating bidding wars!!! Our great leader, Omah Binder, will defeat the infidel buyer, God willing, and create new and great real estate bubbles, God willing, that will create great wealth for our warriors!!

God better willingly restore my down payment to previous highs before I start doing anything more than touristing open houses.

Darn vesting requirements.

While I am not a real estate broker, I'm a real estate attorney who represents sellers and buyers of coops, condos and townhouses. Although it may be too early to tell, Monday we were hired for 6 transactions. This a a marked improvement over October and November. There was some action in December but it was sporadic. I'm hopeful it will continue.

I have an interest in RE and I have seen the same. Activity has increased in terms of lookers vs. the Holidays.

Now this is some great frontline reporting.....

Wow, thanks for the positive news Tola & newaccount. This discussion board is constantly being updated by the ever-pessimistic folks. I think they are a bunch of sore wanna be buyers who missed out on buying when it was $300 - $500 a sq feet and are now hoping for a huge correction so they can feel better about themselves and their past bad decision not to buy.

Well ... any real experienced brokers on? What is the traffic difference between this Dec/early Jan and most? I suspect that December is usually slow, right? So ANY traffic in Jan could be viewed as an uptick? I would be curious as to how we compare with past years.

"I'm a real estate attorney"

That's a tie as to who is more trustworthy: a real estate broker or a lawyer.

SteveF must be an bearish double agent whose insidious, self-appointed mission is to give bulls a bad name.

Inshala, aptboy.

I'd rather listen to Neil Peart's crash than Neil Binder's lies about there not being one.

wow, it seems like the desperados in the real estate industry will grasp at anything. now we don't even need four business days. according to tola increased activity on one day is a "marked improvement" significant enough to rekindle his "hope." one day?

did it occur to any of you that it is natural for the first day after a vacation to have an abnormal amount of activity? look: if there is a noticeable increase in activity for the month of january that will be a useful and interesting fact. but an increase in activity for one day? come on.

Plus it was a nice day.

Happyrenter - the key about treating real estate as an investment is to look at any sudden - even if it is a little uptick in activity - and determine if the market is showing signs of recovery. If you wait until it's more obvious, you've already missed the bottom.

I'm not saying this is a bottom yet but one should always be aware and carefully notice any sudden increase in activity no matter how short or insignificant it may appear at first.

And the key to investing in real estate is to not listen to the naysayers. Go with your gut. And in fact, the more negativity there is, the better indication there is that we have reached bottom.

bigapple:

you've now given us two "the keys" to real estate investing. must be a complicated lock. here's a couple of my own "the keys" that might differ a bit from yours.

1. the key to real estate investing is to wait until the bottom before you jump in. real estate prices do not tend to jump around quickly--they take a long time to reach the bottom, and then they stay around the bottom for a long time. we are not talking about penny stocks here.

2. the key to real estate investing is to avoid taking advice from professionals with a vested interest in increased activity. a pharmaceutical salesperson tells you to take more medicine, be wary. a sushi chef tells you raw fish is they key to long life, be wary. a stock brokers tells you that frequent trading is going to increase your returns, be wary. a real estate lawyer tells you 'now is the time to buy,' be wary.

lastly, i really don't understand why avoiding 'naysayers' would be any more valuable than avoiding promoters (brokers, real estate lawyers, people with extensive and highly leveraged exposure to residential real estate). wouldn't those people be just as important to avoid? wouldn't they be MORE important to avoid, since they have a vested interest?

finally, i agree with you that intense negativity will be a good sign of a bottom. but look at these boards: this is NOTHING like capitulation. capitulation would be 80 or 90% negative comments, with people basically coalescing around the idea that real estate is dead, will never make money again, new york is a pit, get out while you can, etc. etc. a lively debate between pro and con is not capitulation.

happyrenter: here's a response to your key points:

1. In general, I agree with you on no quick real estate turnaround but remember what happened to real estate prices immediately after 9/11? It dropped quickly and significantly because of the economic and psychological fallout which resulted. And many buyers back then (like now) wanted out from their signed contract because the property they were buying was no longer worth what they were in contract for. What happened at the end of December that same year and the beginning of 2002? Prices immediately came back with a vengence and started their long upward movement. It took no more than 2 - 3 months for the market to turnaround. No one is saying this will happen this time around but real estate here has shown not so long ago that it can.

2. Of course, you should be wary of people's assessment who have a vested in real eatate. This is why I say go with your gut. For every broker or real estate attorney who post something outrageously postive here, there is another bitter renter who missed out on buying prime Manhattan real estate at less than $300 a sq feet. And who's only goal now is spread negative news to make the pain hurt a little less. Or it could be a savvy real estate investor who hopes to spread a poison pill on a home buying website so he can get a better buying opportunity in the future.

3. If you read this board, there is A LOT of negativity. One guy here decides to post something positive and everyone jumps all over him. And anything positive is dismissed as being written by a broker or someone with a vested real estate interest.

And finally, here is a another personal tidbit, I have actually made millions in real estate investing (and only part time too) over the past couple of decades. I sold most of it in 2005 - 2006 (except for my 2 residences because I don't treat them as investments) in anticipation of a potential drop off. I have since been sitting on the sidelines waiting to jump back in. Trust me on this, there are plenty of people (and not just in NYC) who are doing the same.

bigapple,

now that you have disowned your two previous 'the key' to real estate and more or less acquiesced to what i wrote, we disagree a lot less. you agree that real estate is unlikely to turn around quickly. yes, it's possible, but when you say "no one is saying this will happen," well, clearly you don't read streeteasy since there are people saying it will turn around quickly all the time (including yourself in your previous post). you agree that we should not take advice from people with vested interest in real estate--but this after you applauded the comments of the real estate broker and the real estate lawyer who posted earlier. you state that there is "A LOT" of negativity on streeteasy, which is surely true, but then acquiesce to my point by explaining what you see happening when people post positive things. that's my point: many people are still making positive posts, ergo this is not capitulation. so fine.

BigApple, real estate bottoms last a while. Excellent piece written recently by Rogoff, I believe, on downturns caused by financial crises, as compared to the "garden" business-cycle adjustments. Real estate markets usually don't recover for 5-6 years. 9/11 can't even begin to compare to this situation. Apples and artichokes.

Look for change? Of course we should. The low point of any US real estate market seasonally is the winter holiday period. We should see a fair amount of activity, relatively speaking, through spring. Will we see the usual 4000 units sold and closed? No. I've done well myself over the years in NYC real estate. This is not negativity. I'm feeling quite positive about the apartment I will buy in a couple of years. Bitter? Please.

When J.P. Morgan was asked for advice about the stock market he usually replied "It goes up, it goes down"...you can't argue with that although some here would give it a shot.

There is no doubt that the market is in the shitter right now, I put off my own quest to buy about a year ago, also around the same time I advised customers to wait and I focused on rentals. I don't know when the "bottom will be in", if I could effectively time bottoms(or tops) I would not be here on street easy being insulted by anonymous posters who apparently all have ivy league grad degrees.

Some contributing factors to support "my" current negative view:

Accelerating unemployment
Frozen credit markets
rising inventory
Fear
Banking system in shambles

Sure everyone will forget about this current mess sooner or later and then Shiva can start his dance all over again and a new generation of SE posters can share and exchange their ideas about what, when and who...

I am tired of the so called business cycles, central banking/monetary schemes and am starting to agree more with the ideas of my anarcho-capitalist friends and their ideas about our so called financial system. Peace out.

Robert Shiller has a piece in the current issue of Foreign Policy magazine. Here is what he has to say about house prices:

-------------
...

History tells us there is some precedent for a protracted, weak housing market. After the last housing boom in the United States peaked in 1989, it took a typical city five years to hit bottom. This time, prices have only been going down for two years. We might look with caution to Japan, where urban land prices fell for 15 consecutive years, from 1991 to 2006.

When the market does reach bottom, it may be with a whimper, not a thud. Generally, there are no sharp turning points. Home prices might remain flat for a few years before they start rising again. Along the way, it will be hard to the road markers with any certainty until we have spotted them in the rearview mirror.

...
-------------

This is going to last a long time, and go very low. Rents will continue to collapse to the point where you can get a good 2-bedroom 2-bath for $3,000 a month. The purchase price will fall to $650,000.

Nothing supports these price levels. Except maybe the mortgage interest tax deduction. (LMAO.)

stevejhx, that's an 18x ratio. That's dangerously close (actually, spot on) the math I was using earlier to support 18x as a sustainable ratio. Careful, or you'll start to think you and I are the same person!!

The ratio changes at 4% interest.

That's what I've been saying all along... we ARE the same person!

Now, will stevejhx admit that some properties on the market today are at 18x, and thus priced exactly correctly... or will there be backpedaling...

18x is high, but 15x - 16x is possible if you use a 4% interest rate, which is where we seem to be headed.

But I've always said that the interest rate changes the ratio.

West81 says....SteveF must be an bearish double agent whose insidious, self-appointed mission is to give bulls a bad name.

ya that's it....

Any more brokers, lawyers, appraisers who would care to comment...

Wait, so Bellmarc is closing its headquarters to try and stay alive, and we're into 2009 for 6 days, and Binder says he's "hopeful" for a recovery.

Is this guy trying to beat out David Lereah as the new "Baghdad Bob" replacement?

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_oYD2ciuxz6U/SKIpW9D7XTI/AAAAAAAABx0/7lID75pwWNU/s320/08-08-12c_baghdad_bob.jpg

Give me a break!

A lot of people seem to be missing the timeline here. They didn't see 6 good days and then decide to close their headquarters. The closing was decided weeks ago, maybe months, and unrelated to that, they're seeing a good 6 days.

Sure, the source is biased - that's a very fair argument. But saying they're hypocrites because they're closing their office just shows you're failing to understand the timeline.

techguy, what are you talking about? the timeline is not the point. the point is things don't turn on a dime. if things were so bad that they had to close their headquarters last month, can they really now show evidence of being turned around over a six day period? that's absurd.

happyrenter: I never said things turned around. Bellmarc didn't say things turned around. You're viciously attacking a strawman of your own creation. Bellmarc said they're hopeful based on current activity - that's a far cry from the "turned around" you claim. I say: A real estate agency is hopeful? Yawn - why is this even making news? Why is this even discussion worthy?

Do you not have any real bad news to jump on, so you attack this so hard? That's pretty telling...

Thanks, bsdetector, for the Shiller quote.

Bellmarc did not close the corporate office. It was moved 3 blocks away to a nicer office.

really jsilver? i guess the owner of the company has it wrong then:

Hoping to cut costs in the "recession," Bellmarc Realty has closed its corporate headquarters at 352 Park Avenue South, between 25th and 26th streets, according to Neil Binder, the company's co-founder.

Binder and other corporate personnel have moved from the Park Avenue South office into a branch office at 936 Broadway at 22nd Street, Binder said. The lease on the Park Avenue South space was up, he said, and the company decided to give it up in order to save money on overhead costs. There was extra space at the company's Broadway office, he said.

techguy,
how does your comment relate to what i said at all? first of all, what did i 'viciously attack'? and second of all, who said it was news? the 'hope' was put forward by a bull stevef as evidence that the market had turned around. and it is a hilarious quote, since it claims that there is a new market reality to be discerned over a six day period. that's all. no one finds it shocking that real estate agents are making shit up. what's incredible is that the shit they make up is so transparent.

and stinky....

stinky too, yes

happyrenter: The above posts are here for everybody to see. Perhaps we have different definitions of "viciously attack", but I'm not pulling anything out of left field here. I'm talking about the handful of posts you made on this very thread.

A real estate agency said they were hopeful. You post many paragraphs attacking it pretty viciously. IMHO, that's more telling about you, and your confidence in your own arguments.

tech_guy, here's vicious: you paid approximately twice what you should have for a shitty postwar cookie-cutter one bedroom apartment that you will be saddled with for decades, and now you waste your life on a real estate blog for no apparent reason since you are neither in the market to buy or to sell. oh wait, that isn't vicious. that's just a statement of fact.

happyrenter: Do you honestly think that throwing a temper tantrum helps your side at all? What's wrong, did the big bad Miller Samuel take away the baby's lollipop when he said Q4 was a pretty level quarter?

lol.

tech_guy, the miller samuel report confirmed exactly what i thought was going on in the market: that it has ground to a halt and prices are plummeting. and not that i go on one day trends, but just today there have been a number of substantial price chops in apartments i am following. level quarter? if you consider a drastic/catastrophic decline in volume and a 20% decline in contract prices level, then sure. level.

i don't need to 'help my side.' i'm laughing all the way to the bank.

Hah - now you're just plain lying. Yet another sign of someone who has zero confidence in their argument. You saw 20% out of context in a report at best tangentially about real estate, and you expected that to be reflected in the Q4 numbers. You saw 3-4% declines, and now have zero confidence.

Your desperation reeks far worse than any broker. That's plainly obvious to anyone reading this thread.

I read Jonathan Miller himself state that the prices on contracts signed in the 4th quarter were down 20% I think happy is right on this one. No?

accepted_offer: All I saw was the Fed beige book. It was about NY's economy, though had a paragraph about Manhattan (like I said, "at best tangentially about real estate"). It mentioned 15-20% drop in contract prices, attributed to a Miller Samuel November report, but no such report was ever made public (as I said, "out of context").

The number was also attached to a billion caveats.

the headlines across the media read Manhattan prices fall nearly 4%, got that, it was nearly!!!! 4%.

Anyhow, the market is at a standstill with only "need to sell" sellers listing. Buyers have done a stop in their tracks kind of thing. So you have stupid levels of transactions until the perception is things are getting better...than all the penguins will jump in.

I'm moderating a panel that Jon Miller is on on Friday, I plan to ask him about that "20% percent" --

ali r.
{downtown broker}

> the headlines across the media read Manhattan prices fall nearly 4%, got that, it was nearly!!!! 4%.

Depends who paid for the media... do you now think what the media reports is more important than the ACTUAL?

Isn't that what burned millions of buyers in the first place?

> So you have stupid levels of transactions until the perception is things are getting better...than
> all the penguins will jump in.

Call me when that happens. Use the phone in the hovercraft...

> level quarter? if you consider a drastic/catastrophic decline in volume and a 20% decline in
> contract prices level, then sure. level.

Yes, the new "level" is not declining 30%. "Soft landing" is not declining 40%.

Why is tech guy on these boards, emotionally reacting? You bought your place. If you felt secure in the decision, you wouldn't be here. Your very presence is proof of buyer remorse & supports the argument of a tanking market.

I'm here because its fun, and because I want to see the latest data. If you read the interaction between happyrenter and me, and conclude that I'm the one emotionally reacting, you're clearly pushing an agenda. I'm here to gain information, while you're here to push an agenda - perhaps its your own presence on these boards that you should be questioning, not mine.

Money, Its all about freaken money. All work and not play makes money maker a miserable and miser. All money and NO CLASS. Freaken Cheapos at bellmarc. They bind together their own documents ... So freaken cheap! No class. All that money and no enjoyment. Whats the use of that kind of money! Freaken stinking cheapo!

tech_guy shut the heck up. NYC real estate is all shit. STinky like a wandering miser