If You Can Demonstrate Market Movement With Comps: Upper West Side Edition

Not after the meal I ate last night. Oy.

410 CPW #6DE was just reduced again, to $995K - about 33% less than the original ask in January. #6DE is an odd, rear-facing combination apartment in which the kids' wing is accessed through the kitchen. Nonetheless, it's a legitimate, pre-war doorman 3BR2BA in a decent location for under $1MM, with reasonable maintenance.
http://www.prudentialelliman.com/Listings.aspx?ListingID=1069089
At $995K, the price appears to be roughly what the constituent parts would have cost in late '04 / early '05.

that layout is a joke. why have they not managed to purchase the bit of hallway that would rationalize it?

Ran out of energy and/or money.

In that kitchen picture, note the brackets holding up the shelves at the right. Nothing wrong with that, but indicates how things were probably done in the rest of the place.

The price war at 771 WEA continues. #9B is back on the market, sliced another $300K, to $1.595MM.
http://www.bhsusa.com/detail.aspx?id=977138

W81st, I seem to be search challenged. Where is the discussion of 250 W.94? 8C and 10H? I'm assuming that you've passed judgment on them? I see that 221 W.82 14C is in contract. Will be interesting to see what it got. (I was sorely tempted). Although I am very bearish, my trading account was up major mega dollars last Thursday, (one of those OMG this is surreal experiences). So perhaps the time has come to scatter some lowball offers? Also, 2250 Broadway--has it been written up here? Thanks in advance.

re: 771 WEA - hard to tell for sure and I have never been in tbe building but do the A & B lines share a common wall separating their living rooms?

gaongaon: My write-up of 250 West 94th #10H is reproduced on page 6 of this thread. (The search failure probably wasn't your fault; I garbled the address when I first posted the review.) I've also seen #10C (lightly renovated, now off the market) and #15C (heirless estate wreck, now in contract), but not #8C. Since #8C seems to be in similar condition to #15C, it should trade at a similar level, less a small discount for the lower floor. It's hard to be sure, because #15C was so uniquely ripe for lowballing. The "C" line has good space for a five, but ugly views of the modern construction across the street. The "H" line looks over Pomander Walk - a much nicer view, and a bigger apartment. IMO, #10H doesn't use the space very efficiently.

I don't recall any write-ups on 2250 B'way - not by me, anyway. Recent price movement there has been noteworthy. You have eclectic tastes. 2250 doesn't usually interest the same buyers as the other buildings you mentioned.

I'd be happy to chat off-line if you want to go into more detail. Just put my screen name in front of gmail dot com.

liquidpaper: You have mail.

it amazes me that there are still people who come on here and claim prices haven't fallen or that the market has bottomed, etc. etc. i'm not a market-timer, but what is clear to me is that the vast majority of apartments are asking at least 25% above the level that deals are happening. and some of the cutting on units sold recently (even post-peak) are mind-clearing:

340 West 86th Street #3C

STREETEASY HISTORY
10/15/2008
Listed in StreetEasy by CBHK at $1,395,000.
10/23/2008
Price decreased by 2% to $1,365,000.
11/12/2008
Price decreased by 5% to $1,299,900.
12/19/2008
Price decreased by 8% to $1,199,900.
01/28/2009
Price decreased by 6% to $1,124,900.
03/04/2009
Price decreased by 2% to $1,099,000.
04/14/2009
Price decreased by 4% to $1,049,900.

recorded sale:
10/24/2008 #3C $1,420,000 +1.8%

these folks went into contract sometime between august and october. by october 24th they should have seen that they had just paid a classic six price for a four room apartment in a decent but not great location, and they really should have walked on their deposit. note to all of you who new-development buyers waiting for your condos to be delivered: you should SERIOUSLY consider walking.

these folks are out 27% closing price to asking price, and i see no reason whatsoever that this apartment will trade near this asking price.

hr - I'm with you on the denial point, but there may be a different backstory to this unit. ACRIS shows that the 2008 buyer, now turned seller, is a company that specializes in global workforce mobility, which seems to be fancy wording for relocations. This could be a relo gone bad, either for one of their own people or for a client's account. In theory it doesn't change the economics of walking from the deposit, which option was surely in the money by October, but this kind of buyer probably would not be thinking about the situation like the "folks" you address in your post.

While we are on the topic of 340 West 86th, where does 89D trade?
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/377156-condo-340-west-86th-st-upper-west-side-new-york

fair point. who knows what the story is then and i could be completely off-base about the comp. that said, the point about the pricing strategy stands.

FWIW, 89D went for $795K in 2001. The ad says "recently combined" but the 2001 sale was for both units from same seller, so combo may have been <2001.

I didn't mean to suggest that you were off base on the comp, as I don't think you are. Numbers are numbers and this one cleared where it cleared and now looks like it's headed for a down 30 to 40% comp in 6 months. How someone/some company got him/her/itself into this is interesting context - which was my only point - but the numbers are still the numbers.

89D is the offspring of a dysfunctional marriage. I didn't care for the execution, the price, or the building. Add in the big assessments lurking for elevators and common spaces and you have the makings of... well.. a real dog. And I'm one who can usually see past these things.

spinnaker, dysfunctional is right, but then we both liked that one on 82nd. About as unlike as could be.

Spinnaker - for 800K though I think I would like it!

NWT - How do you know where it traded in 2001? I am a SE Insider and it only goes back to 2004...thnx

Pre-2004, go to ACRIS and find the deed. One of the forms scanned along with the deed will show the NYS RE Tax paid. That's 0.4% of price paid.

NWT - I think we should demand our share of commission from the mini 5 on 82nd. That one went like it was 2004 again.

LOL I have to go look. Thought it was still sitting. Something very appealing about that place, almost enough to offset stuff like no-front-closet. Didn't that have a wood-plank ceiling in the kitchen?

Indeed, a wood plank barrel ceiling. The bathroom concealed a myriad of surprises, also. It was literally a little ship. I was looking for the hand pump for the head. Anyway, its always good to see confirmation of gut instincts. Not enough sellers like that today, unfortunately.

Liquid Paper, re: 771 West End. Yes, the A and B lines share only one wall, along the living room. 5A and 5B, for instance, could be combined. It would make a perfect apartment for a big Orthodox family who want to walk to shul.

455 Central Park West #22A. Now priced below 2004 basis.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/392540-condo-455-central-park-west-manhattan-valley-new-york
StreetEasy History
09/27/2004 Previous Sale recorded for $2,085,000.
12/22/2007 Previously Listed in StreetEasy by Halstead Property at $3,200,000.
08/21/2008 Halstead Property Listing is no longer available. Last priced at $2,800,000.
10/10/2008 Also Listed in StreetEasy by Buchbinder & Warren at $2,749,500.
03/17/2009 Listed in StreetEasy by Brown Harris Stevens at $2,250,000.
04/18/2009 Price decreased by 11% to $1,999,000.
Fringe location, but less so than five years ago.

The supply on upper west end just keeps growing and growing and growing....

760 West End 15E
STREETEASY HISTORY
04/21/2009
Listed in StreetEasy by Brown Harris Stevens at $1,295,000.

It joins 12E
STREETEASY HISTORY
12/21/2005
Previous Sale recorded for $1,425,000.
03/02/2009
Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $1,495,000.

and 4E
STREETEASY HISTORY
03/13/2009
Listed in StreetEasy by Bellmarc at $999,000.
04/08/2009
Price increased by 15% to $1,149,000.

05/08/2007 #1E $1,175,000
12/21/2005 #12E $1,425,000
11/30/2004 #6E $1,075,000
10/01/2004 #11E $1,075,000

obviously 12E has not a prayer of getting anything close to their 2005 price, but these could go a lot lower given all the competition both in the building and in the neighborhood. i wouldn't be surprised to see these trade in the $1 million range given that they aren't even true sixes.

Another return visit to the "A" line at 201 West 89th Chester Court: BHS just reduced #12A by another $50K, to $1.675MM. No condition problems, excellent building, and nearly 25% off the peak comp five floors down.

--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
CURRENT .. #12A ......................... |↓ $1,675,000 2 beds 2 baths
07/12/2007 #7A $2,125,000 -3.4% | $2,200,000 Sold 2 beds 2 baths

Does such a small cut make a difference? Probably not. Maybe it's intended to send the message that the price won't come down much farther. Or maybe it's the most Jim Perez could convince the owners to do.

300 WEA..NY mag reports that tina fey closed on this place for $3.4 million

06/26/2008
Listed in StreetEasy by Stribling at $6,495,000.
07/11/2008
Price decreased by 8% to $5,950,000.
08/11/2008
Price decreased by 16% to $4,995,000.
11/14/2008
Price decreased by 18% to $4,100,000.
01/28/2009
Listing sold.
04/04/2009
Listing entered contract.
04/21/2009
Listing is no longer available.

from $6.5 million to $3.1 million --- less than 1/2... way to go tina!

Ah finally a solid comp. 10 rooms for 3.1m. 3500+ sqft.

let's get the numbers right: 3.4 million, not 3.1. still dramatic movement, but not less than half the initial ask.

300 west end is perhaps the top building on west end: two apartments per floor, each with its own elevator, each ten rooms, wonderful location, 2 fireplaces, 4.5 baths etc. fey bought on the ever-so-slightly less coveted side of the building (slightly smaller, slightly less gracious layout) and on a relatively low floor, and in estate condition. that being said, this is nearly $2 million less than Abby Disney paid for the exact same apartment one flight up--also in estate condition, and also on a relatively low floor.

I wonder if this comp is going to put the kaybash on the reported movement toward sale of disney's two 5th floor units for a reported $7.8 million (down from her initial purchase price of nearly $11 million in 2006). 7.8 would mean a slight premium for Disney's unit to what Fey paid--and she went into contract for hers when the market was stronger.

Here's the ACRIS record:
http://a836-acris.nyc.gov/Scripts/DocSearch.dll/Detail?Doc_ID=2009041700226001
As noted, $3.4MM.

my apologies...i got so excited that i typed $3.4 in one spot and $3.1 in another. started at $6.5.

Wow! Based on a very casual calculation of size, I come up with about 3500-3600 sq ft. Did I do that correctly? Did we just smash through 1,000 sq ft for 'over sized' apartments? Sure it might be in estate condition, but I think this is pretty significant.

One for W67: 1965 Broadway #11H was just reduced $215K to $1.875MM, 11% below the 2007 sale of the same apartment.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/306955-condo-1965-broadway-lincoln-square-new-york

The listing doesn't provide an apartment number; the floorplan says 11H. That could be a red herring, but if the subject isn't #11H, it's within a floor or two in the same line.

it's significant. but i don't think 'estate condition' is as important here as 'estate'. that is, at some point the estate seems to have decided to take the next remotely decent offer it got. for an apartment like this i don't think 'estate condition' is all that significant: the apartment has great bones, it certainly isn't a dump, and a few hundred thou will get it to good prewar condition. this is slightly under 1k per square foot for a wonderful ten room apartment in a great building and a great location. significant indeed.

Happyrenter: Exactly. Same deal as 91 CPW.

Another point about that 300 WEA apartment: Tina Fey could probably have paid $4.4MM, or $5.4MM. THe thing is, she didn't have to. There's still a lot of money in this town; always has been, always will be. The problem for high-end sellers is that, for the first time since at least 2002, they outnumber the high-end buyers. For motivated sellers (like estates), that imbalance is deadly.

West81, sorry for the delay.... I went out and bought myself a big fat burger! I just made $215K in 3 months... WHOOT, WHOOT, WHOOT!

happyrenter, saw your duplex neighbor on neighbor action... that has to be disheartening for the 1 floor unit... and yes I absolutely agree the large unit premium is completely gone as you noted.

This is a message for Michael Reed (the uber broker listing the same H unit 6 floors above for $2.5MM), "This is HAL calling, please wake up the ship is on a collision course to planet Urunderwater."

happyrenter, 300 WEA #4A is what I'd call the better half, with most rooms facing WEA or 74th. The B line is the half that has three rooms on WEA and the rest on the courtyard.

either way...bottom line is that this would seem to set an interesting precedent not the least of which is because of the celebrity status. so madonna buys a town house for whatever it was (30 million, 40 million?) but the smart money (and god knows tina fey is in the thick of that) buys this place for perhaps an all in of $3.9 million assuming nice hi end reno. 535 WEA has a big problem i think.

NWT,

I've been in both lines, and you're not right. On the low floors the B line is somewhat dark--but then, so is the A line. 74th is noisy (fairway delivery trucks). And on the high floors the B line has open views to the north and east from the back of the apartment. i believe that the historical prices support this. In any case, it's not relevant, both lines are some of the best family apartments in the city.

Here's some neighbor-on-neighbor action over on CPW. Movement is possible as well, but hard to say since the previous comps are high floor and these are mid floor.

75 Central Park West

5D
STREETEASY HISTORY
06/26/2008
Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $3,950,000.
12/26/2008
Listing is no longer available.
02/05/2009
Re-listed by Corcoran.

7D
04/21/2009
Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $3,200,000.

Recorded Sales:
10/12/2007 #15D $4,750,000 -
02/12/2007 #14D $4,312,500 -4.1%
03/07/2005 #15D $3,200,000

this is a dream apartment for a certain sort of person: affluent young family, empty nesters downsizing from a big CPW apartment....me :). i'll be curious how low these go.

10 West 86th, B line

Current listing: #10B $1,795,000

Recorded sales:
05/21/2008 #4B $1,772,500
07/11/2007 #15B $2,710,000
12/02/2005 #15B $1,827,500

The approx. 50% run-up between the two 15B trades is stunning. The 2007 listing sold in a month at 8.6% above ask. Perhaps there was a big renovation in between, but this still seems to be "what were they thinking?" territory.

But back to the current comp. The B line is on the back of the building, mostly facing south, so elevation counts for a lot. The listing pictures of 10B show open views in multiple directions, whereas 4B would look at walls or at best the open interior of the block. I think that 10B listing at an initial ask on top of the 4B price is already a significant move in value, and we'll see where it eventually transacts. The 10B price is not too far off the 2005 15B price either, although I'm not too sure what can be read into this (5 floors elevation, unknown condition of 15B, etc.). Between pictures and the broker claim of move-in condition (famous last words), 10B seems to be in good shape

"Neighbor-on neighbor action"
Thats funny. Sounds like a scene from a porn flick.

happyrenter, thanks, I forgot about Fairway and was going by the plans. Do you know how many parking spots are down that driveway? Must be a long waiting list, with a bump when the Belafontes left.

gaongaon "I see that 221 W.82 14C is in contract."

I will be interested in seeing what it went for as well: I had bought 3 units out of a 5 unit foreclosure sale by the Coop for unpaid maintenance from an investor group (one of the units was 15C) but rather than than complete the sale (there was litigation from the foreclosed on ownership) I took a buyout to rescind my contract (one big reason why is I don't particularly like carrying rent stabilized units at a loss in ANY market, much less a declining one).

The price was at 760 West End finally has 12E below the 2005 purchase price:

nevertheless, it is still asking more than 15E and 4E, and all are asking more than 11E and 6E sold for in 2004. condition unknown on the 2004 sales.

SALES LISTINGS FOR THIS BUILDING
SAVE Active Listings (6)
↓ $1,395,000
760 West End Avenue #12E 3 beds
Open House: Sun, Apr 26 (1:30 - 2:30)
$1,295,000
760 West End Avenue #15E 3 beds
Open House: Sun, Apr 26 (12:00 - 1:30)

recoreded sales
12/21/2005 #12E $1,425,000
11/30/2004 #6E $1,075,000
10/01/2004 #11E $1,075,000

HR: Those high-floor "E" units at 760 WEA have nice light and pretty good views. Not real big, though.

Addendum to the 300 WEA saga: in case anyone was concerned that the folks on the fifth floor might be hurting, it looks like they still have some spare cash: http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/closing/800804

Not sure if we've done this one yet....
239 Central Park West #2A in Upper West Side
StreetEasy History
09/27/2007 Previously Listed in StreetEasy by Prudential Elliman at $4,395,000.
08/13/2008 Prudential Elliman Listing sold. Last priced at $4,995,000.
08/13/2008 Previous Sale recorded for $4,650,000.
03/13/2009 Listed in StreetEasy by Brown Harris Stevens at $4,950,000.
03/29/2009 Price decreased by 15% to $4,200,000.
04/24/2009 Price decreased by 5% to $3,995,000.

Somewhere between the sale in 8/08 where is was listed at 2500 sq ft, it gained 500 sq ft and is now listed at 3,000. FWIW, the floorplan looks like 2,750 to me.

In any case, its now offered down 14% before fees/commish.

Thanks, walterh7. The latest cut has not been touched upon here - maybe because everyone still thinks it's overpriced, even $655K below the 2008 basis.

The much-discussed combination at 50 RSD has closed.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/closing/800952
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/closing/800954
Interesting to see that the spoils were divided evenly. $1.8MM is a disastrous comp for the "D" line, since I think #4D was in good condition; The same price actually isn't bad for a low-floor, estate "C". I can think of two factors that might be at work here:
1) The listing agent owned #4D, and he gets the commission.
2) #3C is on the market, so there may have been some finagling to prop up the price of #4C to protect #3C.

At 760 WEA, it looks like 12E is trying to get $470,000 for a maid's room. 14D looks like the same footprint minus the tiny maid's room and is priced at $925K. I know they may appeal to different buyers, but somebody mist be willing to turn the DR into the 3rd bedroom and save a ton of $$. What gives there?

Following up on another much-discussed listing, 755 WEA #5C closed for $1.15MM
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/closing/800944

Re: 755 WEA

I'm thinking that the owners of 2C, who paid a mere $1.71M in early 2007, are not terribly thrilled with this news. While 2C seemed to be in better condition, the three floors of elevation are important at this corner where the 96th crosstown bus does its turnaround more or less into 2C's master bedroom.

Another quick price decrease at the San Remo--West81st--I trust your views implicitly--What's going on here?

dmf13: There are other folks on this board who know the legendary CPW addresses much better than I do.

FWIW, I see #8F and #10G as very different situations. #8F is a lovely, mostly-original, totally traditional six that is simply falling victim to market forces. The original price was defensible, but that particular broker doesn't mess around; it didn't sell, so she started cutting the price, in 3% decrements.

#10G is the bastard child of an ill-conceived carve-up. It was laughably overpriced on initial offer, and I still think the listing is a joke. I don't know the owner/broker/ex-board-president's circumstances, so I won't criticize her for mutilating a wonderful property. Maybe she sold off the living room two years ago to pay a family member's hospital bills. But having done that, I don't see how she could have valued the remnant at $3.5MM, even with its nice finishes. I suspect that one trades with a "1" handle.

more evidence of the loss of the large apartment premium. somewhat awkward but far from awful combo unit in a great UWS location now asking well under the combined peak comps for the two component units:

105 West 73rd 7CD
04/30/2009 Listed in StreetEasy by Sotheby's at $2,595,000.

recorded sales:
10/30/2008 #8C $1,431,000
01/11/2008 #5D $1,400,000 +3.7%

Wow, West81st, 10G is stunning in its complete awfulness.

Lostintransit: Selling the living room, at a time when they could have gotten a great price for the whole apartment, seems like a regrettable choice. But as I said, it might be unfair to judge without knowing the circumstances. There may have been more to that transaction than just greed and indifference to architectural heritage.

Here's one from the fringes of Celebrity Sales:
35 West 82nd #7C
10/01/2007 Previous Sale recorded for $1,030,000.
04/29/2009 Listed in StreetEasy by Prudential Elliman at $899,000.

The seller here can afford the hit - or at least his family can, assuming they didn't blow their whole fortune on the presidential campaign.

At Ariel, Extell and Corcoran just cut prices across the board on remaining inventory. The reductions appear to range from 11-15%. Here's one painful sandwich at Ariel East:

--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
CURRENT .... #23B ......................... |↓ $1,750,000 3 beds 1,628 ft²
CURRENT .... #25B ......................... |↓ $1,850,000 3 beds 1,628 ft²
07/31/2008 #24B $2,000,000 -9.3% | . $2,205,000 Sold 2.5 beds 2 baths 1,628 ft²

And here's a triple-decker at Ariel West:
--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
CURRENT .... #12A ......................... |↓ $2,750,000 4 beds 2,349 ft²
CURRENT .... #10A ......................... |↓ $2,725,000 4 beds 2,349 ft²
CURRENT ...... #9A ......................... |↓ $2,700,000 4 beds 2,349 ft²
CURRENT ...... #6A ......................... |↓ $2,650,000 4 beds 2,349 ft²
08/19/2008 . #5A $2,900,000 -1.4% |↑ $2,940,000 Sold 4 beds 3 baths 2,349 ft²
04/29/2008 #16A $3,250,000 +0.0% |↑ $3,250,000 Sold 4 beds 3 baths 2,349 ft²
03/14/2008 #11A $2,861,340 +0.0% | . $2,861,340 Sold 4 beds 3 baths 2,349 ft²
01/09/2008 #7A $2,714,050 ...... |
12/20/2007 #4A $2,560,000 ...... |

Market movement upward. New listing at Lincoln Towers, 205 West End, 2 bed,2 bath for $1,249,000. Someone looked at the wrong calendar.

Gaongaon: Well, it's on the 25th floor and the listing claims river views. I guess it's possible.

By the way, I think those price cuts at Ariel took effect a few weeks ago, but they just hit SE.

The listing says "open southern and eastern river views". That should be a corner apt. facing south and east. The floorplan is, I believe, the wrong floorplan, with western views.

At 890 West End Avenue, interesting comps in the D line:

11D, was on the market in early 2008, listed at $1.495 and sold for $1.395 (they had combined the dining room and kitchen for one big space and done a high-end renovation). (http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/178035-coop-890-west-end-avenue-manhattan-valley-new-york)

3D has been on the market since November 2008. Current price is $1.129 (first ask was $1.195). Kitchen and dining room also combined, though in a different way than 11D's was set up. They moved the kitchen into the dining room and then used the old kitchen space as a baby's room (http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/365211-coop-890-west-end-avenue-manhattan-valley-new-york)

9D has just been listed for $975,000. Kitchen and dining room have not been combined. (http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/407991-coop-890-west-end-avenue-manhattan-valley-new-york)

16D was on the market for a brief period earlier this year at $1.095 and is listed as "temporarily off market". It has the same kitchen/dining room combination as 11D.
↓

12B at Chester Court just came back on the market--this time with no apartment number, which appears to be the latest broker trick to try to impede comping.

201 West 89th 12B
04/30/2009
Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $1,250,000.

STREETEASY HISTORY
05/06/2008
Listed in StreetEasy by Halstead Property at $1,575,000.
07/22/2008
Price decreased by 3% to $1,525,000.
08/07/2008
Delisted temporarily.
09/09/2008
Re-listed by Halstead Property.
09/17/2008
Price decreased by 2% to $1,495,000.
12/28/2008
Delisted temporarily.

10/12/2007 #9B $1,525,000 -2.2%
09/10/2007 #4B $1,512,000 +12.0%
06/02/2004 #3B $900,000

smallish five rooms on amsterdam in the high 80s? this one still looks way overpriced to me.

Hi HR. You have mail.

345 West 70th St #2B 899k in contract

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/355132-coop-345-west-70th-street-lincoln-square-new-york

This unit did appear to look nice with a price not too outrageous

The fringe areas are really showing some stress, take a look at 1A in contract and 3A in active listings:

Active Listings (5)
$799,000 807 Riverside Drive #3D 2 beds 1,420 ft²
$660,000 807 Riverside Drive #2B 2 beds 1,221 ft²
↓ $535,000 807 Riverside Drive #4B 2 beds 1,400 ft²
↓ $315,000 807 Riverside Drive #3A 1 bed 818 ft²
$293,000 807 Riverside Drive #3E 1 bed 641 ft²

Listings in Contract (6)
$540,000 807 Riverside Drive #6C 2 beds 992 ft²
$410,000 807 Riverside Drive #1A 1 bed 818 ft²
$362,000 807 Riverside Drive #2H 1 bed 723 ft²
$321,000 807 Riverside Drive #5E 1 bed 641 ft²
$316,000 807 Riverside Drive 1 bed 723 ft²
$279,000 807 Riverside Drive #2E 1 bed 641 ft²

50 West 96th Street #4C
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/300840-coop-50-west-96th-street-upper-west-side-new-york

StreetEasy History
12/13/2005 Previous Sale recorded for $845,000.
06/16/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $1,049,000.
09/17/2008 Price decreased by 5% to $999,000.
11/11/2008 Price decreased by 10% to $899,000.
02/18/2009 Price decreased by 11% to $799,000.
04/29/2009 Price decreased by 6% to $749,000.

522 West End Avenue #6A. Classic six in "total estate condition".

12/02/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Prudential Elliman at $1,349,000.
01/28/2009 Price decreased by 4% to $1,299,000.
01/29/2009 Price decreased by 8% to $1,195,000.
02/10/2009 Listing entered contract.
04/24/2009 Sale recorded for $950,000.

About three months ago, five pages up, we noted this one as a possible bellwether. It needs everything, but the closing price is 38.4% below a lower-floor 2006 comp in fair condition (#4A for $1.542MM). The market isn't dead. Rather, the dead are the market - at least on the sell side. On the buy side, this looks like a pretty smart purchase. By the time the reno is done, the construction site across West End will be a superluxury condo. As a bonus, I think this block is a candidate for school rezoning.

W81: Would you say 522 WEA 6A closed at it's 2004 price? Do you think prices will head back to 2004?

dwell: $950K might even be a 2003 price, but it's just one data point. Execution prices are trending sharply down - especially on estate sales, where recent closing prices do suggest a rollback to 2004 or so. I just don't think there's enough volume to support a conclusion that "prices" as a whole have retreated to a certain year, or that they will. Lots of sellers are still anchored at 2006-2007 levels. If the particular apartment you want fits that category, waving the bloody and rhetorically persuasive flag of recent sales at 2003-2004 prices won't necessarily bring the seller to the table. If the seller's broker is halfway competent (and isn't trapped by the deceit of an unrealistic listing pitch), chances are she has already presented that information to the seller, and hit a stone wall.

The more I study the fragmentary data, the humbler I get about making grand pronouncements. Are we at 2005? Will we get to 2003, or beyond? These are interesting questions, and they offer key guidance for negotiations and appraisals. At the end of the day, though, a buyer doesn't buy the market, and a seller doesn't sell it. They have to reach a meeting of the minds on a particular property. In the current impasse, it seems to help if one of the parties is dead. Even that is no guarantee. I've been waching an estate sale on 97th and WEA for over a year, and the heirs seem to be as stuck in 2007 as any owner could be.

There's another estate sale in the building, 5B. Classic 6 in ok condition. The complete opposite in seller psychology -- the heirs are distant nephews and nieces.

Even if you assume that zero dollars are put into renovations, and a 1% return on 200k (assume 20% down), it's not a slam-dunk on the rent v. buy calcs. for 522WE, 6A.

Given the condition of the apt, buying may make sense for a buyer who has a steady income & 500k. Put down 300k+ to get the new 625.5k conforming loan limits. Plonk down another 100k for the most minimal of renovations. I assume the board will want to see some liquid assets after close & put in a few months more in a rental while apt is renovated.

So you're risking 500k to keep your housing costs fixed and low-ish for the long-term. Might make sense for the right family.

There's another estate at 277WE. P09: there's an 8-room(?) new to market at 151W86.

I'm being repetitive here, but the classic 6 layout at 522WE is not the most flexible 6 out there. My absolute fave 6 layout is at 110 RSD (double LR, large maid's not off kitch). Ditto 685WE (massive gallery, large LR, maid's in a good position), 545WE (useful maid's).

10023: thx for the shoutout, will check it

Link is broken, P09. Sounds like the D-line (9 room). 2 brs in front, 2brs towards the back, 2 maid's room in the back.

We saw 7A at 522 WEA in August when it was for rent at $7K - it was an absolute dump at the time - but that layout is pretty good for a family (the owners started at $9K even with the construction right across the street and the apt in terrible condition). I think $950K seems like a great deal for the new buyer just one floor below - too bad we didn't get there first.

nyc10023/P09: 151W86 is #9D.

nyc10023: I don't think there are many slam-dunks on the "rent vs. buy" front. Maybe at some point, but not yet.

"At the end of the day, though, a buyer doesn't buy the market, and a seller doesn't sell it. They have to reach a meeting of the minds on a particular property."
Well said W81.

"In the current impasse, it seems to help if one of the parties is dead. Even that is no guarantee." LOL!!!!!

You are going to be such an awesome broker. Hope you'll let us know when you're ready.

It's worth noting that the maintenance for 5A at 522 WEA runs at >$1.50 psf, so the relatively high maintenance probably has something to do with the sub-$1m price. Nevertheless, $950k for a classic six on WEA below 86th is a big milestone. If anything (@W81), it might nudge the holdout heirs at 771 WEA to reconsider their price. That extra bedroom isn't worth an extra $1.65 million...

This apartment is now below the 07/06 closing price of $810k. Looks like they've renovated as well. Appears staged.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/411386-coop-2166-broadway-upper-west-side-new-york

12/16/2008 Previously Listed in StreetEasy by Prudential Elliman at $1,050,000.
04/22/2009 Prudential Elliman Listing is no longer available. Last priced at $815,000.
05/05/2009 Listed in StreetEasy by Brown Harris Stevens at $799,000.

re: 151 w 86th street - listing is gone. patient09, if I find out u bot this from under my nose NO SHACKBURGERS FOR YOU and no dates with west81 either (not that that sounds so attractive any more). I imagine it comes back and this is some type of glitch or something and assuming it really is 9D if you google the building, you can get to it's website (I think it's 151161.com or something) and there's a good clear floorplan of the D line available,

lp: nah, no contracts out yet, still fighting the good fight, pissing off every agent that gets in my way. I had one this afternoon voluntarily argue that the apt was 3,500sqft as we were standing on the terrace under our umbrellas. I didn't say a word, just gave her the hairy eyeball while wifey squeezed my pinky. I just smiled and walked out! Not easy while I'm just itching for a fight! God, I need a drink.

5 Riverside Drive #7A, a renovated, design-forward five with full river views, closed for $1.470MM. That's within a few percentage points of same line, lower-floor comps from 2003.

LP: Maybe you should walk over to 151 and buzz the owner of #9D before Elliman sorts out their exclusive.

dwell: Thanks very much. Won't be long.

re: 5 RSD - I looked for the same line comps but couldn't find any other A apartments listed on SE. I was looking to see if they had also been "debedroomed" - as much as I liked the look of 7A from the photos and floorplan, I can't help thinking that this is one of those cases where an idiosyncratic owner may have renovated and cost themselves money when they sold. It looked like a lovely one bedroom apartment, with nice finishes. But I think choosing to go that route of converting what I assume was a second bedroom and incorporating it into the living room made this apartment appeal to a one bedroom buyer, for whom $1.5mn would have seemed a full price.

West81st, I also wanna know whence the 2003 sales for uncombined A's.

Unless it would be indiscreet to say....

NWT: Non-public source. You know the building. Sorry if my info is off the mark.

Back to recorded sales. This one doesn't seem to fit P09's CPW trend line:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/350373-coop-151-central-park-west-upper-west-side-new-york

I would say the buyer was crazy; but given his well-documented (by himself) struggle with mental illness, that might hit a little too close to home.

re 151 cpw #5W 1600/sq ft for a west facing CPW address. Though the view should just clear the rows of brownstones to the west, it aint the trees of Central Park. Where did we expect this to trade?

Here's my take - like that recently discussed apartment in 115 CPW if you're this buyer why does it matter? Mayube he overpaid by $500K (though I am a big fan of this building) but he gets what he wants when & where he wants it. For some buyers money is the commodity, and time spent looking & haggling is more precious.

Kenilworth is fast becoming a quiet haven for lower key celebs who want to live right on that stretch of the park. Makes sense to me.

Yep, why you guys want to bring this up. Being friday and all, I thought we vcould be nice to each other. It hurts me to see when others just can't see the forest as clear as I. I think this would be a decent price for an east facing unit. I was hoping all along that this trade would occur in the mid to low 3's. Either others are significantly brighter than I , or they just don't care as much about their hard earned hogs as I do.

LP..this strikes me as what you aptly described as "prints on the way down". It is really tough for real estate to 'gap' down.

To be give credit where credit is that expression was p09's - crafty trader that I think he is. and p09 - i think you're exactly right. he cares less about his hogs than you do about yours (or I do about mine, though he certainly has a much bigger herd than i do).

P09: I'm so over the square footage thing. It's been lied about so much that it has no meaning. Much more descriptive to me is # of rooms and dimensions.

A bit of a nosedive at 203 W 90th. Odd condo building where 5 new stories were added to existing 6 story prewar.

Previous
8B $1,323,000 on 12/07
9B $1,250,000 on 6/05

New listing
10B $875,000 which makes it 34% below peak comp and 30% below 05 comp...

Spin, the truly outlandish peak sale for this line seems to be the 2005 sale of 9B for $1.25m. The 8B sale is not a true comp because 8B it has a large south facing terrace. Still, a drop of almost $400k from the 2005 comp is certainly meaningful.

remember visiting a couple of 2 bedrooms that were born to be 1 bedrooms. super overpriced still (those were on the 8th floor) and kind of claustrophobic. one of them (i think it was the one that's off mkt now) had literally no closet space whatsoever. it felt like a camping type of situation, everything in tiny bags in 2"x2" spaces, if you like to live like that you could have it for $1M LOL

The term outlandish captures it well.. I see nothing particularly desirable here and a PS84 catchment area doesn't help its cause -high comps or not.

490 WEA, #8B, Classic 7

06/07/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $2,450,000.
07/31/2008 Delisted temporarily.
08/16/2008 Re-listed by Corcoran.
08/16/2008 Price decreased by 1% to $2,425,000.
09/09/2008 Price decreased by 2% to $2,387,500.
10/19/2008 Price decreased by 11% to $2,125,000.
10/25/2008 Price decreased by 7% to $1,975,000.
03/12/2009 Listing entered contract.
05/12/2009 Listing is no longer available.

Listed on ACRIS as having sold for $1,500,000!

12/17/2008 #3B $1,850,000
08/06/2004 #8B $1,800,000

Yeah, this is huge. I haven't been inside this building. But it seems to be at least move-in condition, okay layout for 1.5m. PS9 isn't bad either.

Gives credence to the idea that owners with lots of equity are very negotiable - seller's first UCC was filed in 1993.