Will rents really go up in April?

this is a joke, right?

Rents will be going down in April. and May. and June. And..you get the idea.

"I am hearing all of these brokers say that rents will start going up again in April"

What is their reasoning for this claim? Personally, I think the summer is when it's going to get really bad for LL's. April is kind of a random month...

sign now. commission now. sign now. pay me. pay me....

NO...they will fall

not sure if you have noticed, but city being decimated by layoffs. jobs drive income which drives prices for housing -- buying and renting. There is clearly much less demand for rentals and a significant increase to supply given all the building. Perhaps rental activity will pick up in the spring, but VERY hard to believe the prices are going higher.

I had a furniture rep telling me that I should by before February to avoid the annual price increases of classic mid-century furniture lines. You know what happened in February? They offered a 15% off sale with free shipping including white glove delivery. You think rents are any different? Right.

Just anecdotally (not claiming to have performed any rigorous analysis here), I am kinda seeing the rental market leveling out after dropping throughout the winter months. Things are renting; however, there are some places that they can't seem to give away, e.g., the Jakobson buildings, despite cut after cut. I think it will be interesting to see what happens once school is out for summer and there are NO new grads flooding into the city with jobs...

your broker is an asshole, not an economist

All of the major landlords are offering moving incentives: free rent, pay your moving costs, pay your broker free (even if it's a no-fee company). Just check out nybits.com for availabilities. Companies that refuse to lower rents (Archstone the worst) have massive vacancies. Right now you can get a decent 2-bedroom 2-bath in a good neighborhood for $4,000 when they're available. At that price and below they get scooped up; higher than that, they languish.

Not only are there no new graduates - new construction will be converted into rentals b/c it's not possible to get a mortgage unless 70% of the building is sold, and no one has the money to buy $2 million apartments anymore. That will flood the market with more rentals; people who bought to "flip" will be forced to rent, at huge losses. Retrenchment in Manhattan's biggest industries - finance, advertising - has just begun.

And rents only started falling in November. It's early days yet, we're not down to 2003 rents yet. We're about 2005. Within 6-9 months you will see the average 1-bedroom 1-bath luxury rental under $3,000.

Our current lease is up May 31, so we are looking.
I attended a Brodsky open-house at 124 West 60. Busy. Two non-commission company reps working with groups to show apartments.
We saw three high floor 2/2's in the approximate $4000 range. One river view, the other two central park view.
Part of the offer is one month free or one month broker fee paid if you come with a broker.

Two big changes I see here:

1) Brodsky web-site used to list the available apartments in buildings, now they just list one of each size with a price. I jump to the conclusion that as of now they don't want the renter to know how many vacancies they have. As a contrast, 60 West 57 lists 25 available apartments.
2) At the end of the showings, the agent told us to call the rental office (not her) closer to our moving time for availability and to "make an offer".

What a nice change from previous rental attitude: be glad to get it at the price we're offering and show you are worthy enough to live in our building by putting up two months security in addition to the first month's rent.

check out 235 west 102nd st.
nice 2br/2ba, with views of the empire state building and a sliver river from 2 BR's (totally unobstructed views from every window)
I admit, it's triple digits, but the neighborhood is safe...there is a whole foods going in on 99th and amsterdam, yet they can't rent it.
Why you ask? because the damn broker/owner refuse to budge on the fee.
They want between 12% - 15% of annual rent...nutso
I got into a fight with the junior/rachel like broker 3 months ago...hilarious
Senior douchebroker Susan Singer told my girlfriend that it would rent in a month...it's now been 100 days on the market...good luck

I say wait...these stupid brokers don't know what they are talking about...everything will continue to fall

Just rented in Greenpoint. Brand new buiding. landord threw in free parking space, washer/dryer, custom closet and paid brokers fee. I even negotiated a 5% discount from asking. My current landlord in a hi-rise in HK offered 10% off but I felt apartment was worth about 20% off based on comps in the building. When I inquired as to why I was not getting the same discount as new tenants I was told I would have to factor in "moving costs and hassles"! My doormen tell me prospective renters visiting onsite office has slowed to a trickle. April through June is prime rental season. Lots of apartments coming online as people lose jobs and move away plus no newly minted MBA's and lawyers coming to NY for jobs. Dollar has strengthened and oil collapsed so say goodbye to Europeans, Arabs and Russians rental pool as well. I sense panic amongst landlords.

Any suggestions on a convertible 3br in the UWS in a pet friendly building with a washer/dryer? A playroom and pool would be nice.

Just wait. Last year I couldn't negotiate a reduction, got a modest increase (like 0.5%). 2 months later, after Lehman, prices plummeted 20%. When nothing gets rented in the prime season (as it's not) and inventories rise and the gimmicks don't work, we will see rents fall.

And they won't rise again materially for another 10-15 years, to correct for the bubble & the restructuring of the NYC economy. No reason really ever to buy again. Save your down payment for your 401(k).

"No reason really ever to buy again."

So you've had a change of heart?

cfranch - very curious about the greenpoint market. what size unit did you rent, and what is the price?
thanks

1 bdr 700 sq ft $2500 on the 5th floor of 6 story building

"So you've had a change of heart?"

No. If a decent 2-bedroom 2-bathroom apartment costs $3,500 to rent, it would have to cost $500,000 to be appropriately prices (12x annual rent). That would be down from about $1.2 - $1.3 million. While I think that nominal prices will fall 50% from the peak, real prices will have to fall further, which will take many years. The last bubble (1983-1988) took 10 years to burst, this one will fall nominally faster, but the rest will be eroded by inflation, which is approximately 0% right now, so it will take a long time.

Perhaps some people have a longer time horizon than I do, but I'm retiring in 15 years.

Stevejhx, while I agree with you in spirit, I can't find too many decent 2br 2 ba apartments on the uws for 3500. Unless you mean an 800 sf 2br. I would expect a 2 br apt to be at least 1100 sf. Those seem closer to 4800 in a decent doorman building.

If I'm wrong, please show me one, as our lease is up in May and our landlord is not budging. Unfortunately, while you are perfectly logical, how do we deal with the delusional landlords out there?

HEre is a good example of delusional

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/rental/441709-coop-15-west-72nd-street-upper-west-side-new-york

On the UWS they tend (today) to be in the $4,100 range:

http://www.nybits.com/search/?_a!process=y&_rid_=10&_ust_todo_=65733&_xid_=K94rb9fY9m8iFN-1237317370&!!atypes=2br&!!rmin=&!!rmax=&!!orderby=neighborhood&submit=+SHOW+RENTAL+APARTMENTS+&!!nsearch=upper_west_side

I'm talking in the next 6-9 months for the $3,500 range.

The listing you show is obvious la-la land:

StreetEasy History

12/04/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $6,950.
01/13/2009 Price decreased by 21% to $5,500.
02/17/2009 Delisted temporarily.
03/17/2009 Re-listed by Corcoran.

Down nearly 50% from the initial ask. And even for that price you can get a truly enormous 2-bedroom with 1,400 square feet:

http://www.nybits.com/apartmentlistings/ccd383957c9f6b732f67d68e40d36eb6.html

Granted it's by the train yards, but that's the only one I found at that exact price. (Don't expect anything to be built at the train yards anytime soon, however.) And it's Archstone - tends to be overpriced, but they are very nice.

If I were you I'd print out that list of what's available and show it to your landlord. There's plenty out there.

Speaking of La-la land, I wrote to the broker and asked her if the owner would pay the fee, since her listing says he is flexible. Her response was....

Thank you for your inquiry.

That is not part of the plan at the current time.

Best,
Sherry

iceman, personally I'd show them the list of what's available, tell them that there are plenty of no-fee apartments (nybits.com), and walk. That is what I was going to do in September when it was time for me to sign another year's lease, but the market & everything was so crazy, and the rent increase so negligible, that I decided to stay put. One more month (had I been able to defer it) & I would have seen a huge decrease ($600 or more).

But next year I'm definitely moving if I don't get a deal. Rose has lots of good and reasonably-priced places. If Archstone cuts $1,000 off their asking prices they'll fill their units fast. Personally I'm willing to move anywhere on the West Side below 96th Street, even BPC if I can get a deal. (Boring, but nice parks & lots of views, & not far from Tribeca.) As AIG shows, the days of obscene bonuses are gone & not coming back. There is no more market for overpriced real estate, either rentals or purchases. It makes no sense that I make 3x what I did 10 years ago but I can't afford to buy back my old apartment, because it would sell for 5x what I paid for it (6x at the peak).

No - the real-estate halcyon days are gone. With a salary of 40x rent, someone who makes $200,000 should be able to afford $5,000 a month in rent. If you rent it, you should be able to buy it. There is no reason why someone who makes $150,000 shouldn't be able to afford a nice place to live in Manhattan. It shouldn't take a multimillion dollar salary to live here.

General practitioners should be able to live in Manhattan. Right now they can't.

rent now or be stuck in jersey forever!!

totally - LMAO!

I had lunch today with some financial analysts for a big bank....they said New York has had its tax base eroded, and will have to go to the fed to get bailed out before too long.

I don't think rents are going up for the next decade or two.

I spent Friday and then Sunday working with a couple looking for a 2/2(read about it on my blog www.NYCRentRant.blogspot.com)

We were focused on condos I was surprised at the prices(high). Best deals I found were at the Trump place buildings. They have two bedrooms starting at $3700 with a free month,if you drag me around I will throw in a $1000 dollar gift card. Hey don't laugh, two SE clients have been the proud recipients of this promotion.

theburk - I'm with you. I think, generally, rental prices are still high.

stevejxh, Bankers will make money again. Two friends of mine just got guarantees for Feb '09, which was virtually impossible last year. You often sound so bitter. I guess because you don't make that kind of money.

LOL theburk - love the dead horse photo!!!

April is traditionally a busy month, but it also means tons of leases are ENDING. Without the new people to fill those apartments (anybody hiring these days) it actually means a better scenario for renters.

> stevejxh, Bankers will make money again.

Sure... just much less.

No 50x leverage, no mortgage securities to sell, M&A down, investment banking down, and the government watching every step... oh yeah, and all the money they owe.

And, it will come in stock/deferred. Can't buy too many condos with that.

"You often sound so bitter."

Methinks you project.

"I guess because you don't make that kind of money."

I make plenty of money, thanks. Not starving anytime soon. Just - the immorality of multimillion dollar bonuses at AIG is really stunning.

And they were not alone.

did the rents go up?

you're an evil sexually perverted sociopath.

wow C0C0, you sure have a history on this thread.

you're an evil sexually perverted sociopath.

upperwestrenter
about 4 years ago
Posts: 486
Member since: Jan 2009
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>Senior douchebroker Susan Singer told my girlfriend

upperwestrenter, your girlfriend or your pet iguana?: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/34762-some-posters-are-idiots-and-wont-listen

you're an evil sexually perverted sociopath.

> did the rents go up?

not a whole lot, the beauty of rent stabilization