New York City homicides drop 23%

we're all too poor to commit crime right now. hopefully by q4 things will pick up.

You can buy plastic shivs wholesale in the novelty toy district or whatever that area is called around 28th & Bway. Where there's a will, there's a way.

i got into an argument with a broker who was trying to call it flatiron and i was like i've lived here my whole life lady and we've always called it the "wholesale district".

of course that was when we weren't calling it the welfare hotel district

but but but that's impossible - i was told that when the economy deteriorated crime would spike, driving people out of NYC and contributing to the negative feedback loop that would let me buy that West Village townhouse for $200k. how can crime keep dropping? don't they know that NYC is now a terrible place to live? this sucks.

i luv printer...lol

printer, don't forget - mass exodus out of the city ;)

"but but but that's impossible - i was told that when the economy deteriorated crime would spike, driving people out of NYC and contributing to the negative feedback loop that would let me buy that West Village townhouse for $200k. how can crime keep dropping? don't they know that NYC is now a terrible place to live? this sucks."

Genius... the cop cuts haven't hit yet.

You left out a step, economy deteriorates, city cuts back, then crimes spike. You sorta forgot an entire step.

Apparently (same NY1 coverage that mentioned crime stats) we will have the smallest police force in decades in a few months...

But, keep trying!

nyc,

FACT: police officer levels peaked in 2000. They have been declining for 8 years, as has crime. While #s of police are a factor in mitigating crime, they are far from the determining factor.

But, keep trying!

and by the way, rooting for crime to increase is rather depraved.

but blindly thinking it isn't going to happen in an economic downturn isn't really the most realistic viewpoint either

you are correct - conventional wisdom would suggest that crime would go up as economic conditions deteriorate, yet during the worst quarter economically in decades, crime went down. if i had told you a year ago that GDP would shrink over 5% in consecutive quarters, that NYC unemployment would skyrocket, including the single biggest month increase on record, and then asked you to tell me would crime be UP or DOWN 20%, you would say UP. But the exact opposite happened. Which has been my point in all these threads - though all signs point to further deterioration in housing prices, CW is often wrong.

I think we're looking at something more like the 1930s (we're all in it together) vs. the 1970s (racial/ethnic and class warfare), and thus no major spike in crime. At least in NYC.

i really hope crime doesn't go up. i grew up here in the 70s and 80. it was awful on the trains, especially at night. waiting on those platforms for a half hour or more. with the service cuts coming up i wonder if that will happen again. i hope it doesn't but i can't image the subway system is going to get safer anytime soon.

I also grew up here (UWS) at around the same time.

I didn't really find the subway to be unsafe (aside from fare-evasion), and frankly with all the construction going on, I find the night/weekend service these days to be worse than that era. Fewer projectile-vomiters (was that you?) and track fires, though.

The planned service cuts are very bad, but the worst will be the inevitable "deferred maintenance" that allows the system to crumble.

i hope alanhart is right. the unemployment situation has gotten so much worse so quickly that i'm not sure the effects are being fully felt yet. i've recently noticed people sleeping on the buses with much greater frequency, and i know that homelessness has been steadily increasing over the last year or so. i would guess that drugs would be the catalyst for a major deterioration, crack wasn't an issue in the 1930s, and i've also read that the prison systems will be releasing many imprisoned on drug charges.

trendy in the 1930s: benzedrine, heroin, nembutol, cocaine, reefer, and bathtub gin

was cocaine really a drug of choice in the 30s? unaware of that.

the thing about crack is that it makes people do crazy shit, not just rob people. all drugs have a role in crime, but i felt that the crack days of the late 80s and early 90s in NYC were really awful.

I agree about crack, and think it's ridiculous that it was given parity with standard coke under the law. It really turned people into raving lunatics. It's my firm belief that the crack epidemic ended mostly because family members of crackheads finally stopped "lending" them $2 and just shut them out.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Get_A_Kick_Out_Of_You

that's where we diverge in opinion. i think the crackheads were killed, died or sent to jail. since then there hasn't been a momentum for a new generation of crack addicts, and i'm just sure hoping these economic conditions don't foster a new epidemic.

The crack epidemic was 1984-1990 (per the Wikipedia, anyway ... but I remember it being more an 80s thing than 90s) -- virtually all of those years were boom times. So I wouldn't expect a down economy to lead to a big boom in raving-lunatic fuel.

actually, alanhart, i left NYC in 1990 for a few years, and i was overseas from 1986-88. 88-90 almost sent me over the edge here, though, and i recall things being fairly bad on many levels.

hopefully you'll be right.

alanhart i am glad your trains were safe on the UWS in the 80's but i grew up in the bronx and had to travel to manhattan for school and i can assure you the trains i had to take were a nightmare. sometimes you guys forget nyc consists of 5 boroughs. also the focus shouldn't be just on crack, the city is filled with crazy meth heads now more than anything

i forgot about the meth heads. showing my age. actually, jasonkyle, as a ballsy woman i like to believe that not much gets to me, but the subways did not make me happy. even in the city. and I was pretty happy living in Hell's Kitchen.

last week we got on a subway and proceeded to a quieter part of the car only to find two individuals that had relieved themselves without toilets (urine, thankfully, I guess). Sad, very sad. For all.

is printer actually spunky?

beatyerputz, i saw a few other posters who reminded me much more of spunky when i first returned (nointerest, and others). printer's not rude, just opinionated, which is fine.

I thought the Bronx was in Westchester . . . ?

You mean kids going to school today don't get "mugger money?" Let's see, you have a Metro card and don't need cash for the train, you don't need a dime to call in case of emergency because you have a phone. How do kids manage to scam their parents for money for wine and weed or even just hanging out? I agree with Alanhart in one respect. In the 1970s to be against crime was considered code language for being a racist and good liberals never considered attacking crime as a viable agenda or it sometimes seemed, a desired outcome. Crime was part of life in those days...just like the dog shit on the sidewalks. I think today most people feel differently, crime is not "social protest", its wrong and the much more diverse city that is 21st NYC will not tolerate it. Or dog shit.

Agree though I have seen more homeless on the subways lately and if the "service cutbacks" have yet to be implemented you could have fooled me. Dammit if I have to endure 1984 subways, I think its only fair to give me the body I had 25 years ago!

And CBGBs, to move said body in. The 80s weren't all bad, now that I reflect.

CBs actually opened in 1977, may have even been 1976. I was supposed to get a waitress job there but Hilly was out when I went to meet him (his ex-wife recommended me..oy) and it never happened. At that time they were still thinking in terms of "Country, Blue Grass, Blues". Oh how things changed quickly! Then again at that time Max's Kansas City was getting a lot of the nacesent new wave bands...
The 1980s weren't bad in many respects if I didn't have to get up at 6 am to start doing my hair and spend too much time channeling Melanie Griffith.

But, keep trying!

> and by the way, rooting for crime to increase is rather depraved.

That you confuse worrying about the impact of economic crisis and MAJOR police cuts is "rooting".... wow, now that is stretching.

> FACT: police officer levels peaked in 2000

We're going to DECADES low levels. Comparing to 2000.... wow, again, reaching.

Keep trying, though!

"you are correct - conventional wisdom would suggest that crime would go up as economic conditions deteriorate, yet during the worst quarter economically in decades, "

It wasn't the worst quarter economically in decades. Not even close.... so the conclusion is basically bunk.

Liz, thanks for agreeing with me, but actually you didn't. Your point might be a good one, but I meant had nothing to do with white guilt or enforcement.

I was referring more to black/PR anger at being marginalized in the economy (real or perceived, it doesn't matter). Thus the muggings and burglaries, which rarely netted more than Chiclets money, were more a matter of the powerless trying to feel powerful. That included black on middle-class-acting black crime.

I don't think there will be the same Us vs. Them thing this time around. Too much has changed since then.

alanhart - poor vs. rich? time to leave the Prada at home? will the definition of business casual expand to Levis and Grateful Dead t-shirts?

radical-chic

maybe we can have a new musical movement to go along.

riot-rock

Riot rock? Alan, have you thrown out your copy of "There's a Riot Going On"...I'm sure its available on itunes.

Not to mention the violent call to arms "Dancing in the Street" by Martha and the Vandellas

I was going to reference "Volunteers" by the band that became Jefferson Starship. But I'm trying to maintain marketability and that means thinking like the rest of the world--that the world was created in 1995.

We could just do "White Riot" by the Clash if you prefer a modern approach to civil unrest.

10022 - I can see how you'd make up the $1 5th ave co-op thing b/c its very hard for someone to prove a negative, but this claim of yours?

It wasn't the worst quarter economically in decades. Not even close.... so the conclusion is basically bunk.

Umm, Q4 '08 (the most recent we have data for) was -6.2% annualized - you'd have to go back to 1982 (as in more than 2 decades) to find a worse quarter (06.4% in Q1), and once you pass by 1980 Q2 (-7.8%), you have to go all the way back to 1958 to find a worse quarter. So not only was it, in fact, the worst quarter in decades (as I stated), it was the 3rd worst quarter in the past 50 years.

And most economists think Q1 '09 (which is the actual quarter these crimes stats are from, will be worse.

Please, man up and admit when you're wrong

The first song at our wedding was the Clash. Hubby wanted the Sex Pistols, but I had to draw the line so we compromised on "Stand by Me."

lizyank, the young turks think the world was created in 1985. the REALLY young turks think the world was created in 1995.

I think we need a new approach to civil unrest. These are unprecedented times, after all.

printer, are you TRYING to ruin a perfectly good thread?

Sounds like a fun wedding.
I'm not sure these times are unprecedented, maybe they are to us but not to my parent's generation as I was continually reminded throughout my life. (Liz: "Ick I have to go to a luncheon at the Waldorf tomorrow, the food just sucks there. Liz's Dad: "During the Depression we couldn't pay the light bill and you don't want to go to the Waldorf because the food sucks.") Of course most of the people who experienced the Depression are in the same place with my parents, hence the boon in estate sale apartments.

Frankly I don't think the way that generation chose to deal with economic disaster, many becoming sympathetic to either Communism or Facism, was especially positive. I also suspect whatever approach to civil unrest the young turks devise to deal with today's situation will be strictly virtual...recognizing that "Man Your Laptops" doesn't have the same ring as "Man The Barricades" or even "Up Against the Wall Motherf**ker" but I'm not sure they are capable to doing things IRL.

about - actually, you guys hijacked the thread. but i'll step away - enjoy your trip down memory lane.

"Umm, Q4 '08 (the most recent we have data for) was -6.2% annualized - you'd have to go back to 1982 (as in more than 2 decades) to find a worse quarter (06.4% in Q1), and once you pass by 1980 Q2 (-7.8%), you have to go all the way back to 1958 to find a worse quarter. So not only was it, in fact, the worst quarter in decades (as I stated), it was the 3rd worst quarter in the past 50 years."

Economic activity is not the same as growth... but try again!

GDP is bigger now than most of the century!

But try again!

"FACT: police officer levels peaked in 2000. They have been declining for 8 years, as has crime. While #s of police are a factor in mitigating crime, they are far from the determining factor."

Yes, economy has something to do with it.

Whoops.

Liz -- I think you've got something there. They'll take down the Man via sexting.

ny10022, everything on this board can and should have something to do with real estate, generally. that doesn't mean that all threads have to have you and petr and et al discussing rent v buy. really now. sorry printer, but ny10022 hijacked this thread. we're talking about crime and social things, obviously related to real estate but you guys had already started such a thread. every real estate thread could go back to the there were $1 coop issues, but can we contain them at least somewhat?

liz, i agree with you that so far there certainly hasn't been anything that hasn't been felt before (but i LOVED Klein's Shock Doctrine, not from the sense that I wished her analyses were correct, but that i was fairly certain that they were). So having said all that, I think you know where I'm coming from.. I don't think that any one aspect of this crisis may be unprecedented, i'm worried about the whole.

"but but but that's impossible - i was told that when the economy deteriorated crime would spike, driving people out of NYC and contributing to the negative feedback loop that would let me buy that West Village townhouse for $200k. how can crime keep dropping? don't they know that NYC is now a terrible place to live? this sucks."

hee hee (ok, the crime itself isn't funny, but...)

"The citywide murder rate has increased 22.8% in the first 11 weeks of the year over the same period in 2009, from 79 homicides to 97 as of Sunday, the most recent day for which statistics are available.

Shootings in general are also up citywide, with 293 people hit by bullets this year, a 16.3% change from the total of 252 recorded by March 21 last year.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/ny_crime/2010/03/26/2010-03-26_bloody_start_to_10_spike_in_killings__shootings_has_folks_worried.html#ixzz0lxWker6N

care to repeat, printer?

yes, crime in general has been up this year - that's a fact. As is the fact that it is still lower than pre-recession, and remains at levels a fraction of those 10+ yrs ago. I hope that the NYPD can continue the good work they've done over these past 20yrs and figure out a way to keep things from getting worse.

I wish crime would increase and more murders would happen so that real estate prices go down.

ha! i knew you'd be the one to post on this subject. have there been other mentions of recent crime here? as far as i see, all the posts are still about rent vs buy and particular buildings, so business as usual. somewhat ivory tower-ish, no?

our issue was never affordability, it was always this and only this. because the last time ny kept it real we weren't parents.

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/manhattan/crime_spree_hits_subways_swbb8CVvJlDcGTrKRkz7VP?offset=48#

"yes, crime in general has been up this year - that's a fact. As is the fact that it is still lower than pre-recession, and remains at levels a fraction of those 10+ yrs ago. I hope that the NYPD can continue the good work they've done over these past 20yrs and figure out a way to keep things from getting worse."

well, I don't want more crime, but this is part of the economic effect (and the indirect police hiring effect).

If yo wan to lower crime, we need to follow Arizona's lead and make it a crime in NY to be an illegal alien. Cops should be required to ask people for their citizenship papers.

Liz: I know that you prefer the old Manhattan. But. I was talking to a native Manhattanite today (and descendant of many gens of Manhattanites, so bonafide pedigree) about the past. She said that females expected to be groped by guys walking down Amsterdam Ave in the broad daylight. I can't believe that this is the same level as dog poo.

The world started in 1994 when I saw my first web page.

10023, there's old and then there's old. i like downtown and i certainly wouldn't want to return to the five points era. i like hell's kitchen and chelsea and i'm not certain that i would want to return to the mid-80's when i lived in both. i wouldn't mind them existing, just with a bit less crime. and i know tons of families who grew up here, with long-standing roots in the city. they didn't live on amsterdam, which at the time was VERY sketchy and devoid of any real reason to be there. many of there kids were mugged, often for their overpriced watches (what were they thinking?), but i know them now and they're not any worse for the wear.

i know of few older women who would have been walking on amsterdam back in the day. probably because of such "stories."

aboutready thinks it's no big deal if kids get mugged, as long as real estate prices are lower.
Disgusting.

licc makes baseless assertions about someone else's ethics and he blatantly lies in his troll-like behavior. disgusting. how can he live with the fact that he spends so much time following people around and spewing unfounded venom?

stay classy, licc.