West Harlem topped our list of the NYC neighborhoods to watch in 2018.
Every December, StreetEasy puts together a top 10 list of NYC neighborhoods to watch in the coming year. The list predicts areas that buyers, renters and sellers should keep their eye on for increased interest and rising prices, based on four key factors: annual change in median sales and rent price, listing views on StreetEasy and new certificates of occupancy (an indicator of newly completed construction) filed with the city.
This year, West Harlem claimed the No. 1 spot, marking the first time in StreetEasy predictions history that a Manhattan neighborhood has topped the list. Coming off a year of tremendous growth in sales price, West Harlem is poised to command even greater buyer interest in 2018 thanks to its comparably lower asking prices and good transportation access.
“Neighborhoods like West Harlem, Woodside, and Prospect Park South, which have long been outshined by their popular neighbors, are finally taking the spotlight in 2018,” said StreetEasy Senior Economist Grant Long. “As New Yorkers seek to balance affordability with convenience, these nearby neighborhoods are seeing a surge of interest, growing prices, and an influx of new development.”
Manhattan May Woo Renters Back With Convenience and Stagnating Rents
As frustrations with the subway mount — and as the L train shutdown looms — 2018 could see increased demand from buyers and renters in the more centrally located markets of Manhattan. Both Manhattan neighborhoods to make this list, West Harlem and Chinatown, have shown precipitous growth in home prices over last year, but only moderate growth in rental prices, suggesting that the island may find renewed appeal among renters seeking convenience and relative affordability.
Though Chinatown and West Harlem have seen significant growth in sales prices, both neighborhoods are still affordable by Manhattan standards. The median sales price for the borough is $1,100,000, which is $30,000 higher than the median in Chinatown and nearly $650,000 higher than in West Harlem.
The One-Neighborhood-Over Theory
In the outer boroughs, we see a different story developing. Rather than prizing heightened convenience and short commutes, we predict value-conscious home seekers will favor a one-neighborhood-over approach, turning areas adjacent to classic hotspots into a major draw. That means a neighborhood like Prospect Park South — long in the shadow of Park Slope, Windsor Terrace and other more central neighborhoods — will likely attract major attention from buyers and renters hoping to land the Brooklyn lifestyle (and park proximity) for a lower price.
In Queens, similar dynamics will likely drive interest in both Elmhurst and Woodside, which snagged the No. 4 and No. 10 spots on the list. Both lie adjacent to the more lively and coveted Queens neighborhoods of Astoria and Long Island City, but offer more affordable housing options, as well as convenient transportation via the 7 train.
How We Did It
We identified and ranked the neighborhoods to watch in 2018 based on four key performance indicators: the annual change in median asking rent, annual change in median sales price, annual change in listing page views on StreetEasy, and the amount of new construction in the neighborhood. New construction is calculated as the number of residential buildings that received permanent certificates of occupancy from the New York Department of Buildings in 2017.
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