Williamsburg

Does anyone have any input on this please? I am most interested in what happens once these abatements run out. Thanks!

It depends on many things. In amenity-rich buildings the increase in taxes may be prohibitive when combined with high common charges. It depends on the quality of the construction and if the building has many issues. It depends on the duration of the tax abatement and what the unabated taxes will be. It depends on how much the city will promote future abatements that will compete against older units, and where and to what kind of units these abatements will apply.

Look at the rent/buy ratio. FYI, our building just had its first foreclosure action started against an owner who is not behind in common charges. Hasn't been paying the mortgage for years. So, while I own, at a very good rent/buy perspective, I think there's risk involved.

Bubble.

Why do you say that Greensdale?

It's the nature of NYC real estate.
I'm not saying that the bubble can't continue for some time. On a relative basis though, Manhattan will always be where people desire. Williamsburg is only driven by Manhattan pricing people out and that includes co-ops being too strict for young people's tastes. If there's any change to that, some of the boomers want to move out of Manhattan to lower cost living, co-ops will be more flexible, Williamsburgers will decide that they have the chance to move to Manhattan. There's several layers of demand for Manhattan, and very few layers of demand for Williamsburg.
You only need to look at the demographics of Williamsburg - relative young and starting out. Nothing estabilished.
And as Aboutready points out, some of the purhase price is for amenities. That'll change. Williamsburg is not a natural market for these amenities like Manhattan is, so that's why they have to be in-building.

Ok, hb, I'll bite. You are very wrong. Williamsburg has a fabulous list of positives. Food, music, outdoor space, easy transportation and depending on where you live no puke on the streets. Gyms aren't as plentiful, but there are still lots of options. Many buildings here have no amenities, including mine, which is fantastic because I don't use them nor do I feel like paying for them. The schools are following. Nobody I know feels like they are "settling" by living in Williamsburg. When I considered Park Slope I felt I'd be settling for something less than ideal. Same with UES. Not so here. And, as everyone knows, I'm ancient.

But prices out here are awfully frothy, even given the rents. I'd be careful. Hb, I think you need more fiber, you sound a bit off the last couple of days.

There is absolutely no inventory in Williamsburg.. people are tripping over themselves to buy anything.. it's absurd.. Bidding wars left and right... I understand that it's a cheap outlet to Manhattan but it is quickly heading towards being parallel to it as opposed to cheaper... There is a serious supply issue there and it bothers me... a lot of it has to do with the fact that developers would rather work on safer rental projects as opposed to condo.. something needs to change..

Aboutready, you live in Williamsburg?

All along I thought you bought in Harlem.

What a surprise!

Why? To meet your needs? Rentals are safer right now, financing is very hard for purchasers. It's all about equilibrium. Rents may or may not go down as a result of the increased supply, developers are slated to start huge projects over the next few years, etc.

But I agree that prices seem crazy right now, and much of that is because, unlike what hb says, Williamsburg has become more desirable to many than the east village and LES, both of which are even more crazily overpriced. There is momentum here. A lot of the owners I know are thirty-somethig couples, wide range of careers but not many in finance or law.

>Food, music, outdoor space, easy transportation and depending on where you live no puke on the streets.

No puke on the streets!

>Nobody I know feels like they are "settling" by living in Williamsburg.

It's ephemeral. New Yorkers don't move to Williamsburg. People from Maine, Seattle (including Tacoma), Nashville, they want the mall but they think hey, this is high end boutique craft mall, it's clean, it's getting better.

I'm not saying Aboutready that you'll be losing money over the next 5 years, but Williamsburg isn't long term. I don't wish your investment harm, and in fact, I think this is the first time you've said you live in Williamsburg and my comments above weren't directed at you. I really thought you bought in Harlem.

Oh, hb, f off.

>There is absolutely no inventory in Williamsburg.. people are tripping over themselves to buy anything.. it's absurd.. Bidding wars left and right... I understand that it's a cheap outlet to Manhattan but it is quickly heading towards being parallel to it as opposed to cheaper... There is a serious supply issue there and it bothers me... a lot of it has to do with the fact that developers would rather work on safer rental projects as opposed to condo.. something needs to change..

Doesn't everything you say pretty much indicate that it is a bubble? Williamsburg parallel to Manhattan?

Aboutready, so angry. Why?

Hey yikes, aboutready is a neighbor of bjw!

Hey bjw, you finally got validation from streeteasy!

Have you finally lost it completely?

Hey C0lumbiaC0unty, what do you think about people who buy real estate in Williamsburg?

Hb, not to give myself too much credit, but I've called almost every appreciating market in NYC three to five years in advance for the last 15. You're wrong. Williamsburg is very long term. The LES may not be, the housing stock sucks, is almost entirely geared to young singles.

But I've got at least 30 decent restaurants within a 15 minute walk, probably more. And many very good ones, some great. You don't get it. This is Brooklyn heights on steroids, not a "Brooklyn" experience at all, as you define it.

>Hb, not to give myself too much credit, but I've called almost every appreciating market in NYC three to five years in advance for the last 15.

And you also have said that you have sold way too soon.

>not a "Brooklyn" experience at all, as you define it.

Since you aren't quoting me - I said nothing of the sort - should I take that to be one of your insecurities?

Poor greensdale. A new name doesn't validate you. Not angry in the slightest. Just think you should grow up.

But you aren't my mom, so why do you worry about if I grow up or not?

Why didn't you buy Williamsburg in 2009 if you are able to spot appreciating markets? Between buying way ater than bjw, and your tendency to sell many years before the top, are you sure this will work out for you?

No, a bubble is not when lack of supply drives up prices. It can be because of cheap and easy financing, but only the former exists. This is not a particularly healthy, nor normal, market, but I wouldn't call it a bubble.

Because ill never buy new construction until it has sold out and the current owners have had years to discover and deal with the problems. Don't worry about me. I'm doing fine.

Grow up.

Do either of you go to Williamsburg? No longer young crowd. You are describing Williamsburg 5 years ago. It's much more 30-40 year olds, plenty of 50-60 year olds, chain grocery stores, multiplexes and the works. Williamsburg is just an extension of LES. Great neighborhood with huge investment potential. The work they are doing to the boardwalk is also ver encouraging.

They ALSO have recently redone their lousy public schools and are offereong some top notch stuff. That changed a lot f the demographics.

I'm so excited by this new understanding.

For months I've thought you moved to Harlem, made a sensible purchase.

Hey bjw, go visit your new neighbor! She bought at 33% higher than you bought for.

How do you know what I bought for? Tool. It must be so exciting for you to have something new to grind to bits in that bulldog mind of yours. Just rest assured that I got a very good deal both in terms of price and in terms of rent/buy with only 10% down and no PMI. And Peter cooper owes me tens of thousands. Life is good.

Hey w67thstreet, have you seen this?

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/32547-east-river-ferry-is-sinking
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/24999-east-river-ferry-service-finally?page=2

As I have stated in the past, Williamsburg has more unbuilt capacity than almost any other area in the city. This means tons of new units and big buildings will be built every year. If you buy now, in 5 years there will be tons of new units with better amenities and newer construction than the one you own. Good luck selling. Bad news for Williamsburg continues with the announced massive development of the Domino Property and the hurricane destruction on Shaffer's Landing....

Can you two stop bickering? I'm trying to get actual information, I don't want to be caught in between a useless, immature, pissing contest.

I agree with AboutReady on the fact that W-Burg is desirable and that it has "legs" in regards to appreciating. I just wonder how the whole abatement expiration thing will play out.

misha, the abatement will play out all over the city over the next 5-10 yrs. most people bought ignoring the actual, unabated taxes. the problem is not W-burg, though some people with be more attracted to the 25 yr abatements and buy themselves more time until the pain starts.

And the debate continues. Too much inventory in wburg? Too much future inventory? Transportation issues will kill Wburg? Tax abatement expiration will kill the market? These were issues discussed to death 5 years ago. And the fact is Wburg is doing amazingly well.

Is this a bubble? I think it is a supply- demand issue. Condo supply is low and demand is high. It is not due to irrational speculative buying. That fact is the neighborhood is booming in all aspects: restaurants, stores, bars, etc and it continues to attract all sorts of people, young and middle aged (like me). In the 3 years since we bought Wburg has dramatically changed for the better. It will continue to be a high demand area. People who predicted its demise 5 years ago were wrong. These are the same people again speculating on its future demise.

>your inquiry has been addressed to death here

No I think that was about Willamsburgh :)

I bought in wburg and love it. There are maybe two neighborhoods in manhattan I would prefer. Loads of new construction that will all be rentals. Prices are getting a bit crazy, but suspect they will level off. If you are investor, maybe not the best. I have an abatement. When it runs out I will pay more in taxes, just like other people. Notion that people buy because of abatement is misplaced. Bigger issue in wburg is fact that we are dealing with condos, so loads of foreigners.

I bought in wburg and love it. There are maybe two neighborhoods in manhattan I would prefer. Loads of new construction that will all be rentals. Prices are getting a bit crazy, but suspect they will level off. If you are investor, maybe not the best. I have an abatement. When it runs out I will pay more in taxes, just like other people. Notion that people buy because of abatement is misplaced. Bigger issue in wburg is fact that we are dealing with condos, so loads of foreigners.

Willamsburgh has almost highest number of drug dealers and robbers roaming on the streets, just next to bronx

A few years ago there was a woman not quite about ready to buy who advocated that the government cancel the abatements even though the condo buyers had paid the developers for that benefit. I guess now, as they say, the upper hand is on the other foot, and the woman has since bought and is awaiting her additional check from a legal settlement for a government benefit intended for the working class.

Ottawa which are the Manhattan neighborhoods that you would prefer?

Hfscomm1

You're so silly, hb.

Obvious ones: wv, soho, a small section of ev. Because I was limited to condos was not realistic. But really love bburg, great energy, loads of fantastic restaurants, bars, etc. so no complaints, but still not manhattan, which is both good and bad.

As LookPied pointed out, it's supply and demand. The area West of Bedford, South of N. 12th, and North of Grand is prime Williamsburg. Location. Location. The area wasn't zoned for residential development until about 8 years ago. This part of Williamsburg provides the easiest and most convenient access to most parts of Manhattan. I work at 42nd and Madison - my commute is shorter than my colleagues who live in some parts of the UWS, Financial District, far West Chelsea, Tribeca and the UES. Most people I know who bought in this part of Williamsburg are not looking for the "chance to move to Manhattan." All Manhattan neighborhoods are not equal. And so, to broadly imply that people would prefer to live in Manhattan if they could afford it over Brooklyn is a bit arrogant. There are cheaper 1 bedroom units available in Manhattan that I could have purchased to say I live "in Manhattan." (The far West Village is out of my price range as is the case for many Manhattanites). But I prefer not to live on the UWS, UES, Murray Hill, FiDi, Battery Park City, Chinatown(!). The point is I bought a property in Williamsburg because I liked the neighborhood and apparently so do many other people - the current prices (higher than some Manhattan neighborhoods) reflect that.

tax abatement: honestly, "if you need to ask, you can't afford it" Whenever it expires, those that are cheap will move back to ohio or canada, or.. it's not that much of a difference when it expires if you just own up to full property taxes with the naturalized abatement at 17.5% for condo/co-op unless a foreign investor not using as a primary residence, or whatever it is then. If it shows under $1,000 per year for taxes @ 15yrs., then just go with the inflation flow and put some away in your sugar-free cookie jar. What's another $5000 give-or-take on a property that has increased in appreciation over that span? As well, not to bright future for those incomers looking for a tax abatement break. Imagine in 2031, someone is paying extremely low taxes on a piece of property in NYC. Anyway, buy now, sell in ten years or so, make a profit, and not worry about high taxes, which in future hindsight, are not that high comparatively to the rest of the world. You're just thinking on the cheap side and have unfounded anticipations of the cheapness of others. Hold firm on your price if your product can speak for itself. As Dad said, "there's an ass for every seat; just make sure the door doesn't hit yours on the way out"

>And so, to broadly imply that people would prefer to live in Manhattan if they could afford it over Brooklyn is a bit arrogant.

correct, and?

There really isn't a neighborhood in Manhattan I'd rather live in right now. I'd looked off and on in Brooklyn since the mid-80's and considered Williamsburg long before the development took off, but I must say I like arriving at a time when I could get a good deal AND restaurants have proliferated all over the place.

And false and ignorant.

BillyRes, most of the area you describe has been solidly residential for over 100 years. I lived there from 1984 to as soon as I could get out of there and move back to my native Manhattan. And despite whatever changes have occurred, it's still what it was, really. A tad pricier.

Williamsburgh's appeal to early gentrifiers is that it has a nostalgic West Berlin feel to it, cut off as it is from Manhattan (L train = Charlie) and from "real Brooklyn". Getting anywhere is a grueling ordeal.

If there's one thing that sets Williamsburgh apart, it's that it's by far the ugliest neighborhood in the entire City of New York. Tarpaper tarpaper tarpaper, in some cases emulating 2D green bricks (???), in some cases "improved" by covering up with vinyl siding. Plus a few piles of red brick, often with all the architectural details chipped off. On and on like that.

At least it's not Long Island City, though.

" I work at 42nd and Madison - my commute is shorter than my colleagues who live in some parts of the UWS, Financial District, far West Chelsea, Tribeca and the UES."

Yes, but at the end of the day you have to LIVE in ... Williamsburg.

"If there's one thing that sets Williamsburgh apart, it's that it's by far the ugliest neighborhood in the entire City of New York. Tarpaper tarpaper tarpaper, in some cases emulating 2D green bricks (???), in some cases "improved" by covering up with vinyl siding. Plus a few piles of red brick, often with all the architectural details chipped off. On and on like that."

AMEN!!!!!

The Berlin comparison is pretty apt and the ugly is fair as well. But still pretty great. Issue now is the meat packification occurring.

alanhart
about 2 hours ago
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>BillyRes, most of the area you describe has been solidly residential for over 100 years. I lived there from 1984 to as soon as I could get out of there and move back to my native Manhattan. And despite whatever changes have occurred, it's still what it was, really. A tad pricier.

Wow alanhart, how do you really feel about Williamsburg! When did you leave after 1984?

>Williamsburgh's appeal to early gentrifiers is that it has a nostalgic West Berlin feel to it, cut off as it is from Manhattan (L train = Charlie) and from "real Brooklyn". Getting anywhere is a grueling ordeal.

But what about the restaurants?

It IS pretty ugly, at least the parts I like. And some siding salesman retired in luxury after enabling vast numbers of homeowners to deface their properties. but it's not hard to get to manhattan, just other parts of Brooklyn.

Washington heights is a bit of a hike, thankfully.

>At least it's not Long Island City, though.

Well sure, but you can get there from the G train?

aboutready
2 minutes ago
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>Washington heights is a bit of a hike, thankfully.

Ed Koch will be buried in the Heights. You got a problem with Ed Koch?

Did he live in Washington heights, troll?

Well, his hospital was there, and he's moving there now for eternity, troll. He could have chosen Williamsburg, but he didn't, troll.

I'm not positive, but I'm pretty sure there aren't any cemeteries in Williamsburg to choose, troll.

Even the dead don't want to be there, thief?

hfscomm1

NYCMatt,

Say what you want, but you can't argue with the high demand and amazing price appreciation over the past 3 years since I bought.

We had a great day today: dinner at Bistro Petite, movie at Nighthawk Cinema, drinks at Maison Premiere. All 5 minute walks from our apartment. No need for Manhattan. Love my neighborhood.

I'm glad you are happy where you bought. People are happy over here as well.

>Say what you want, but you can't argue with the high demand and amazing price appreciation over the past 3 years since I bought.

Appreciation over the past 3 years for sure, and certainly better to have bought 3 years ago than last year.

I hate bull/bear arguments in general, and toldjasos and dredging up old posts and victory laps, BUT .......... I remember a lot of warning off from Williamsburg done a couple of years ago on Streeteasy by very intelligent people who sounded knowledgeable. Shadow inventory. Something along the lines of, yeah, it looks great now, but just wait until all those condos flood the market that you don't even realize are sitting empty because the developers haven't put them onto the market yet. It's been a long enough time now for that much-discussed shadow inventory to hit the market, so why the lack of inventory in Williamsburg and heightened demand? It makes me think the whole shadow inventory argument is a complete fabrication, or wishful thinking. So here we are in early 2013. What of it, kids? Are there lots of vacant condos waiting to flood the market? New projects in the pipeline we don't know about yet? And Matt, I love Hudson Heights, but it is residential in character. It is a neighborhood where you walk the dog in peace and quiet. Williamsburg is not.

Well, take aboutready's building where she recently bought, there's a recent foreclosure action going on, and no one in the condo knew because the owner was paying the condo charges ... just not the mortgage.

After 3yrs of living in North Williamsburg we can honestly say we wouldn't trade it for any other area of the city. The appreciation of our apartment (which in reality is tough to gauge as there are 0 comps on the market right now) is a nice benefit. A benefit that will not be actualized as we're not leaving. My other input is that to call this thread "Williamsburg" is misleading. This hood really is 3 different distinct areas in terms of price and desirability: North, South and East. It is an apples and oranges comparison. Hence to believe Shaeffer Landing or Domino will impact North Williamsburg is I believe erroneous. I have no idea if we're in a bubble. I do know that i participated in many heated discussions three years ago where i was told over and over buying here was insanity. I'm very glad i pulled the trigger. If that is a good decision now is as much "opinion" as it was then.

Haha,

I wish I could have been one of the smart ones who bought in Williamsburg 3 years ago. Great timing and congrats! We bought our unit just as the market was picking up steam after units sat and were discounted in price in 2010 and 2011. I did not catch the bottom but apparently our unit has appreciated since my purchase in 2012. There is not much condo inventory for now and N. Williamsburg (agree with moxieland) is top tier here with more new buildings, businesses and restaurants coming in all the time. I wonder at what point the developers will decide the new construction can be turned into condos for purchase because there is already demand from purchasers for this area.

According to a realtor I have worked with and who is very familiar with W'burg real estate, the units are now asking $1000 - 1200 !?!?! per sq. ft. in the prime prime area and buildings in N. W'burg (esp. by the water or near Bedford station)?

Certainly, parts of W'burg look like the old industrial town it was. However, there are also nicer areas with townhouses, frame houses and new construction. I do not mind the mix of architecture, so long as it looks like the area is being kept up or being renewed. Which it is! Of course, the view along the waterfront is spectacular. I am fortunate enough to wake up to the east River and see the ferries as well as the Bridges and city lights. W'burg keeps getting better with the many things to do and experience locally or not too far away. It is still in the process of growing. You see new construction everywhere. I am so happy we chose here. The choice of restaurants just in the immediate area is phenomenal and access into Manhattan (Union Sq., lower Manhattan can't be easier with the L train and an easy drive in via W'burg Bridge).

I like being able to find st. parking most of the time though that is likely to change with the new buildings and greater influx of people expected. This is less hectic than Manhattan but it is so convenient to everything Manhattan has to offer. My plan is to retire in place here. It really is a sweet deal and I am thankful I was able to buy before being priced out completely our of the area.

So, W'burg works well if the fit is there. Obviously many people feel the fit with W'burg is good! Thus, rentals and sales move and move quite fast (referring more specifically to N. W'burg).

IN the last three months or so I have noticed a significant uptick in activity at construction sites. But I think all of those are planned as rentals, so that would augur well for at least the maintenance of prices. IN terms of appreciation, I bought only last year, but already (based on very direct comps) am up at least 10-15%, so basically could recoup my closing costs already and am paying 2/3 a month what I did renting and building equity every month. BUT, most importantly, is fantastic neighborhood and I too love it here. Moving forward it will be interesting to see how the transportation infrastructure will hold up. Think the L runs every 2.5 minutes in the morning and still is full by time it hits Bedford.

Ottawanyc,

I basically heard the same thing, that most of the new construction are rentals, including the 3rd Tower of Northside Piers (targeted completion date end of 2014). I have wondered if they will turn some of these rental projects into condos for purchase as the economy recovers more fully and, hopefully, with some loosening of the tight financing requirements and procedures. (I could not believe the hoops we had to jump through to get financing last year.)

And yes, with my 20% down, I now pay around $2700/ month (before tax deduction) after you factor in the rest of my mortgage going directly into principal. This is for a junior 4 condo in prime, prime north W'burg. So, I think we are doing better than renting, once we had the 20% down for our condo and passed the high bar for financing.

I am thankful I do not have to commute daily into NYC for work. The L train must be quite packed during peak travel times. It is nice to have access to the L during the off hours, making access into the 14th St. area super easy (east side to west side) and then the rest of Manhattan for cultural and other activities. Though I have to admit really there is already too much to do right in W'burg and other parts of Brooklyn for us to have to go into Manhattan much, except for a Broadway show now and then. I am hoping to get to the museums once time permits (who knows when).

Going back to the tax abatement question posed by the OP. We have a long tax abatement period of another 23 years of so for our condo, with increasing taxes towards the last 5 years of the tax abatement period. Honestly, I am hoping to be done with our mortgage by that time.

So the full taxes to be paid in 20+ years from now will not be too bad, compared to paying a monthly mortgage.

It would appear prices for the condos now with tax abatements might have to be adjusted downward somewhat with the end of the tax abatements. However, who knows what the RE market will be in 10 years or so in W'burg. Maybe we will truly be in another bubble or prices might be flat or down as more condos for sale come on the market. The point is, anything can happen.

We just have to make sure we are prepared personally to pay the difference in RE taxes once the abatement ends. Also, to be prepared for some price "cut" on our condos if we are to sell after the tax abatement period ends. Though, by then, the market may be up significantly due to other factors in the future. It is hard to say what will happen (especially in our 20+ years time frame).

>" I am thankful I do not have to commute daily into NYC for work"

Wait, isn't Williamsburg in Brooklyn, and isn't Brooklyn part of New York? Oh that's right, Manhattan is still "the city"

Williamsburgh is part of the City of Bushwick.

What happened to this guy: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/33692-why-do-people-like-williamsburg

if manhattan is "the city" and williamsburg aint--murray hill is siberia

>murray hill is siberia

You might not like the area, it isn't one of my favorites and I've never lived there, but it is not Siberia.

if, then...get it?

Some of these comments could have been cut and paste from threads 4-5 years ago (clearly, I've been on this board too long). Funny exaggerations on inventory (remember 10,000+ units coming online soon!!?), rants about Williamsburg's "ugliness," poor comprehension around tax abatements - it's all there.

What's still true is that this ain't a neighborhood for everyone (especially curmudgeons living in Washington Heights), there's still more construction than your average NYC 'hood, the commute to Manhattan isn't nearly as bad as some would have you think, green space is still lacking, and there are more than enough restaurants/bars. What has changed is that even non-residents realize that it's past the tipping point where the neighborhood won't regress to pre-bubble conditions, something MANY naysayers on here touted a few years back - some even fairly recently (namely a greyed-out troll around these parts) - and that Bedford area rents/prices have risen to match Manhattan levels. Not sure those are sustainable - there are still pretty large buildings coming up, but it's gone on well past what I expected.

"It makes me think the whole shadow inventory argument is a complete fabrication, or wishful thinking"

Not a complete fabrication, but if you recall, I went through and detailed the inventory as best I could a couple years back to truly gauge how accurate these predictions were. The high point, I think, was around 1,400 units. This was when the Edge and NSP2 were just getting started.

i live in far west village now and lived previously in williamsburg as well as union square. i chose west village because i need to commute to jersey sometimes and williamsburg made that difficult. otherwise, i would move back there in a second. it has a lot going on. the restaurants and stores are amazing. the vibe is great, tons of artists and musicians. it is a vibrant young area. west village is mainly european, which i don't mind but i don't see myself buying a $3k sweater so half the stores around me are useless to me. perhaps if i made $1m a month i would think differently but i think until u get into really substantial wealth, brooklyn is the spot now, imo. and i say this even though my last spot in wburg was only 15% cheaper than my spot now per sq ft

The "Brooklyn Renaissance" is certainly helping Brooklyn neighborhoods and no doubt especially Williamsburg. Brooklyn buzz rivals Manhattan buzz. So, where neighborhoods outside Manhattan used to be seen as inexpensive alternatives, Brooklyn is definitely building up its own unique identity. It is now simply an alternative choice, not just a cheaper alternative. There is definitely a different feel/ambiance/style in Williamsburg. And there is a subset of New Yorkers as well as European and Latin American expats that prefer that different feel. Some tourists want to experience "authentic" New York and Brooklyn is seen as the place to go. So Brooklyn now has a strong identity that may be rivaling the traditional Manhattan view of NYC.

I am right now wearing hipster styled shoes from "Bed Stu" shoe company bought in Atlanta.

Just face the facts bjw. It will never be Washington Heights. That shadow inventory is going to crush your investment. The L train runs twice an hour when its not constantly broken. If your money was in stocks and high yield bonds you could have been renting a palace on the UWS this whole time.

The Times says people are leaving to Hastings on Hudson.

"Brooklyn now has a strong identity that may be rivaling the traditional Manhattan view.."

It feels to me more like Manhattan has changed so much that what one would have found in Manhattan 30 years ago has virtually disappeared from Manhattan.

bjw, the shadow inventory argument was a reason that Williamsburg prices should have gone down - there would be inventory come onto the market all at once that could not be absorbed - this has not happened - all the talk is of there being no inventory, so even if there were inventory right now being disguised as rentals, the rents are very high and the moment they convert to condo they would be absorbed, as would any putative vacant condo inventory deliberately helf off the market - the whole argument sounded very convincing at the time, but it has not panned out

>what one would have found in Manhattan 30 years ago has virtually disappeared from Manhattan.

Such as?

lowery, see: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/34050-usw-naturally-occuring-retirement-community

Greensdale, funny - that article is part of what I was thinking.

Williamsburg is not just hipsters. In fact, I don't see many hipsters at all in the area between Bedford Avenue and the river north of the bridge. I do see mostly young people. If they have kids, they're very young kids. What you would have found in Manhattan 30 years ago was an earlier version of hipsters, living there in old apartments and lofts, barely scraping by with day jobs that kept them afloat while they pursued other career aspirations in their spare time, and/or active social lives involving clubs that died long, long ago. What you would have found was far less tourists and far more diversity of incomes and lifestyles living right in Manhattan. Manhattan is a very nice place, great place to live if you can afford it, but it is only for the very few. There is a lot more to what draws people to the big city than expensive housing, so by definition it's not going to end up in Manhattan.

The tax abatements will run out and, according to many of these offering plans, the estimated actual taxes are quite high. However, there will likely be an adjustment when theses buildings are no longer abated. If the taxes stay very high, prices will decline. This is similar to coop maintenance...I have seen maintenance jump from $1 per sqft to $2 per sqft in a particular building on the UES. In turn, apartment prices dropped by about 30%.

However, I suspect the estimated taxes listed in the offering plans will NOT be the actual taxes. They will be more in line with what exists or is appropriate in the area.

If you intend to purchase a condo where the abatement is running out, you must take this into consideration. Keep in mind, the abatement will run out in all buildings in the next 20 plus years so everyone will be in the same boat.

The best way to purchase an apartment anywhere in the NYC area is to use a Buyer's Broker. These brokers
have relationships with listing brokers from all the real estate companies. Buyer's brokers know what inventory is coming to the market prior to it actually happening. This is a great advantage for a buyer. You can sometimes see the property before it is listed.

anyone running to open houses only is going to have a hard time buying an apartment in Williamsburg right now. There are to many buyers and to little inventory. A Buyer's Broker can help makes this experience a bit less agonizing and it costs nothing to use one.

huntersburg is greendale? HB, is graycist.

I collect graycecards.

No, you collect race cards, your racist! AR, is a racist too, with that black fictional kid she adopted to be like a thin Sandra Bullock.

Nolan: I understand that there is a significant amount of shadow inventory in williamsburg. How can a buyers agent help untapped that?

Shadow inventory = Condos that sold to investors as rentals. Look at old rental listings... contact the broker. Be prepared to pay top dollar. ie... $1100 a foot for condos that sold for $650 two years ago.

The problem is not shadow inventory, it's low equity. If you bought into Williamsburg in 2006-2007, which a lot of investors did, you were likely dealing with negative inventory. After three years of the Federal Reserve pumping cheap liquidity into the system, and now buying Agency MBS like drunken sailors, it's not the least surprising that the asset bubble is being pumped back up. If you want to sell at this point, you will probably want to wait a couple of years, since rates aren't going up soon, or so you think.

NYC is a rock and will never come crashing down. You will absolutely see a point at which the supply problem ends, however. All of your low equity investors who have been waiting on the sidelines, who want to sell into this market before rates increase, which they inevitably will. I don't think Williamsburg will implode, but it will matter.

Nolan. You're totally clueless. Every listing broker wants to originate the sellside and buyside of the transaction in order to maximize commission. Somebody is much better off without representation because the listing broker will favor the non-represented buyer over the buyer with representation assuming all else equal.

I forgot about this thread.
Looks like Misha figured this out 3 months before bjw called the bubble. Why so many threads about the Wmsburg bubble? http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/34980-time-to-sell-in-williamsburg

(this is all before Misha came up with the questionable strategy of questioning construction quality: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/34210-williamsburg-real-estate-buyers-beware?)

In either case, we know it isn't a bubble for 2 reasons:

Aboutready lives there and she's told us she sells too early, and she hasn't sold yet.
There's no Eataly there yet, so prices have at least another 15% to increase just by a magic retailer: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/34911-flatiron-inventory

Williamsburg is a complete bubble. Abatements will run out and you will see an abundance of new construction hit the market in the next 5 years, of which will not offer abatements. This will cause a major decline in the value of properties. I predict a 30% decline or so in the next 5 years.

correction, 5-10 years as abatements run out.

misha2306-from your lips to God's ears- was thinking to buy there as an investment, but the low inventory and poor quality of some of the smaller new construction have made it ridiculous. Went to an open house for a 1 Br near Grahm St station. People were quite literally lined up from the second floor to out the door. With new construction, higher interest rates, higher taxes and perhaps expiration of abatements think that prices will indeed come down. Agree with al who said that the place is architecturally ugly, but the sheer concentration of young people and "cool" places make it desirable.