SE talk section is the VIX for Manhattan RE

I was thinking exactly same last day or two. Very sad that on any bad news they all come out. Shrugs of humanity with no hope.

I think it goes both ways. SE talk was MUCH busier than even now during the heady days of '05 through mid '08. It was also real busy in the downturn. But right now it doesn't hold even a dim candle to what was going on in '06/'07.

You mean you all forgot discussions about The Edge, LICC, 1BPP, the LES, West81's OH diaries, Noah's warnings of bad vibes in the markets??

No way the pace now is even close.

> You couldn't get anyone to shut up :)

And you kept talking, and the market kept declining.

I think its a SteveF idiocy index...

somewhereelse......wacking steve for an interesting idea.....

Remember you can't have:
Yin without Yang
Bunker without Jefferson
Hot without Cold
Up without down
Shadenfreud without empathy

Put down the stick anf get out the carrot

RIP curbed..

> Remember you can't have

You can't have right without wrong, doesn't mean we need a board of SteveF being wrong to prove it...

when uncertainty rises, there is much to talk about. When markets are engineered by fed/govt policy and a reflation environment in tact, there is less to chat about. Its our nature. As fear rises, so does our curiousity and therefore we talk to others

Noah, in your view has this market begun to rise or is it pretty much treading along the bottom?

I would say this market experienced its bottom in early 2009...and that we are now 2+ yrs into the reflation and probably at the high point of that move now - especially the higher end. But the reflation was divided based on price points.

Manhattan was never immune to the credit crisis, it just got hit in a different way. Our adjustment was sharp and fierce, and lasted about 5-6 months from period of September 2008 to about Feb/March 2009. At the bottom, fear was so high that bids were reflecting big time future downsize risk that sellers either "hit the bid" out of fear or removed their listing from the 'crazy' active marketplace at the time. It was so sharp, it bounced back from the bottom as rest of asset classes got into their reflation (mid-2009 until today). Most markets never saw the demand come back, yet here we did. Take a look at this measure of current demand, PENDING SALES for Manhattan from January 2009 until today:

http://www.urbandigs.com/chart.php?s1=Pending+Sales&s2=&mindt=01%2F01%2F2009&maxdt=06%2F22%2F2011&Update=Update&t=Market+Trends&interval_mindt=

It started in lower end, gradually trickled into mid end, and the past 5-6+ months the higher end is seeing some great action. So I would not call this treading along the bottom. Hard to pinpoint exactly where we are right in terms of each price points reflation from the bottom. I did mention a few things in the interview with Rog Gitter that made it to Huffingtonpost.com.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ron-gitter/noah-rosenblatt-urbandigs-interview_b_875737.html

"you can't have right without wrong, doesn't mean we need a board of SteveF being wrong to prove it..."

Good thing swe is around, where would we be without such a genius?