Tribeca/SoHol "on fire" - UES/UWS $2-5M lagging

Thanks Noah, your data points are always appreciated. What do you make of Soha118, The Gateway and 5th on the Park (all in Harlem)raising asking prices. Harlem has not been "hot " for a while but perhaps the severe shortage of condo inventory is bringing up prices.

Thanks dude. What percentage of the mkt does soho represent versus ues and uws?

Oh never mind shill data.

that is why we combine soho/noho/wvillage into 1 submarket. But no worries, Ill nevermind.

not familiar with those 2 bldgs, sorry..my buyers are actually all downtown right now. But in general, never a fan of increasing prices if unit failed to sell at a lower price...but if they want to test the market, they have the right and can go right ahead. In the end, the bids will dictate value. If they miss the hot market, they can rethink that strategy when pace of new deal volume is much lower over the summer

You are comparing an area of FAR of 150 versus 6. Yep. I'll nevermind also.

better not to track any nhood pending sales I guess. that way, we can simply listen to what brokers think, rather than actual data for nhood.

I can point out a couple of reason that apts in the ues & uws aren%u2019t seeing much price appreciation. First is that there's simply not much that%u2019s interesting in the $2-5M price range. After that the renovations done are VERY BORING. It seems that the mentality is to make it look circa 1985. Same moldings, same Viking stoves, blah, blah, blah. Maybe the relators have something to do with this in how they recommend renovations to their clients.

Some refreshing state of the art renos, maybe even a little %u201Ccutting edge%u201D, would be welcome.

Do people move to the ues just to die?

what's wrong with this site, you can't even edit your post...

When I was a junior banker... I'd make my excel spreadsheet tap dance... then I'd write 99 Q1 FCF went up 20% vs. 98 Q1 FCF....

The question then would be "WHY?" and "WILL IT CONTINUE?"

A company can do anything to make FCF change 20% + or more in any quarter... did it go from LIFO to FIFO? Did it cut back on CapEx? Did it defer Interest Expense?

As your senior banker I'd rewrite the headline like this:

"Post the Greatest RE BUBBLE in Manhattan, the Soho submarket of $2MM to $5MM units which represent Less than 5% of the Manhattan Market shows signs of resurgence even in the Face of a AZZwhooping of the UES AND UWS $2MM to $5MM, which represent 95% of ALL MANHATTAN"

But I digress "STOP KONY 2012"

How would an accounting change on inventory methods increase a company's cash flow?

so let me understand what your saying?

1. SoHo/NoHo/WVillage as a submarket should not be considered a local market at all because its too small
2. SoHo/NoHo/WVillage should be more like the UES/UWS

isn't the fact that this downtown market has such small inventory and is a little niche of the Manhattan market, what makes it part of what it is? So your saying its not worthy to track activity there?

Trying to understand how the mind of W67thstreet works. I

w67th grew up on the age of Enron when (1) accounting tricks were used to magically change cash flow, and (2) it was ok to be dishonest in your personal dealings like leaving an apartment without paying the last month's rent or owning residential property and litigation with his tenants.
Also don't buy that co-op buy ignore that he owns a co-op that his parents live in, and ignore the fact that he doesn't live in a co-op himself simply because he was outbid.

Litigation -> litigating

2nd "buy" -> "but"

Cuntzburger. Bonus point for you. That was a trick stmt. someone in this class is thinking.

@UD. Why do you act so dense? You know you are smarter than that.

'manhattan's $2mm to $5mm submarket is taking an azz kicking, but the bright spot is in th tiny tiny submarket in soho! But the deleveraging of manhattan re continues unabated'

Now that's better.

Outbid by a bubble buyer. Absofuckinglutely! Who know maybe if I had a huge yoke of a $2mm mortgage maybe I'd be on Ud's and w81's mama's side. ......

Nah.

"'manhattan's $2mm to $5mm submarket is taking an azz kicking, but the bright spot is in th tiny tiny submarket in soho! But the deleveraging of manhattan re continues unabated'"

More like high-end UES/UWS is taking an azz kicking, but the not-that-tiny West Village/Tribeca/Soho market is a bright spot.

What's a relator?

>Cuntzburger. Bonus point for you. That was a trick stmt. someone in this class is thinking.

Sorry but the professor doesn't receive bonus points from the teaching assistant.

Urbandigs: Considering your choice of interview subjects, I think you were likely to get an exuberant assessment of the downtown market and a more sober view of uptown sales - even if conditions in both sectors were roughly the same.

That said, Deanna is right: UWS $2MM+ hasn't done much since mid-2011. Prime product does well (see 300 WEA), but lesser properties tend to languish unless they are priced at 2005-ish levels. Lower price points are a different story, as Deanna mentioned.

thats exactly what is so interesting, how segmented the market is and how we can now accurately track it. Its what we wanted for years, to have a tool to track hyper local markets to quantify current conditions for clients. Btw, this topic came up as I got emails from Deanna on the slow 2+m market uptown and calls from Raphael on how hot Tribeca/Soho/Village was. That was the motivation behind the post.

" we can simply listen to what brokers think, rather than actual data for nhood"

this would be a waste of time. If you like wasting your time or want to try to derive some entertainment out of it, by all means go right ahead.

ty w81 it is always refreshing to hear your opinion.

When w67 posted about 210 Riverside Drive #6A and called the seller a greedy pig ... what did that eventually yield on selling price? ... the ask?

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/20442-greedy-pig-put-your-nomination-here
Greedy PIG... put your nomination here.
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w67thstreet
about 22 months ago
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>http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/520027-coop-210-riverside-drive-upper-west-side-new-york
>Asking $2.15MM 5-6-10, bought $880K 1-18-05.... go get em lemmings...

wow what a shocker Brooks

huntersburg: 210 RSD #6A sold for $2.11MM, 1.9% below ask. You're right that W67's track record of predicting prices on individual apartments is awful. On page 20 of the UWS "Market Movement with Comps" thread, for example, he predicted that 51 West 82nd Street #1 would drop to the low $1MMs. It sold for $2.3MM.

But maybe we're missing the point. As Bobby Kennedy famously paraphrased Shaw: “There are those who look at things the way they are, and ask why... I dream of things that never were, and ask why not?" Urbandigs describes the market as it is, and seeks explanations. W67 sees the market as it perhaps should be, with prices that reflect incomes and reasonable levels of leverage, and rails at the persistent folly of lemmings. He may be right about where we're headed. So was Cassandra. That was her curse: everyone thought she was a crank too.

btw, here is UES/UWS 2-5m over the same exact period 1yr prior - Dec 9th, 2010 to March 8th 2011

http://urbandigs.com/chart.php?k=c94c94b1f2701b27e5bfd608c0c8c48a

up 11.4% and 16.7% respectively

this year, down 4.4% and 5% respectively

>But maybe we're missing the point. As Bobby Kennedy famously paraphrased Shaw: “There are those who look at things the way they are, and ask why... I dream of things that never were, and ask why not?" Urbandigs describes the market as it is, and seeks explanations. W67 sees the market as it perhaps should be, with prices that reflect incomes and reasonable levels of leverage, and rails at the persistent folly of lemmings. He may be right about where we're headed. So was Cassandra. That was her curse: everyone thought she was a crank too.

I'm headed to the grave and will remain there a long time. But not tomorrow. Tomorrow I'll see the sun rise.

I appreciate the more detailed data. But isn't there another level of detail down that offers a better explanation than "the market is on fire"? I looked up three recent developments in Tribeca and how many are in contract at those buildings:

1. 250 West Street: 31 (19 priced between 2 and 5M)
2. 77 Reade: 15 (9 between 2 and 5)
3. 57 Reade: 25 (4)

Honestly I don't know what conclusion that should lead to, but I wonder how much supply within that price range went up relative to demand over the same period of time.

Malthus? The fact we had a massive bubble which led to an impressive building of $2mm+ units has no bearing on UD's pants on fire analysis. The data does NOT lie.

We are reflating very quickly. One must buy now before one is priced out forever.

urban digs, I'm sure you explained it before, but are you tracking closed sales data, or is it all data including what is in contract and contracts out?

we do track closed sales vol, but due to the lag from csgn to close + lag for city to file the transaction, all sales charts are set to a 90 day delay to allow time for filings to roll in.

what I was discussing here was pending sales volume, which UD defines as an ACTIVE listing that is changed to a CSGN state by the exclusive broker. Not Contract out or offer accepted. In RLS its either CSGN or BA (board approved) as some brokers forget the CSGN tag and go from active to BA directly. A listing falls out of pending if:

1. it closes
2. two successive active tags
3. its been 6 months w/out assoc closing

tell us what you really think of w67thstreet.