Toren

> Hmm, more people think Eddie Wilson is an unintelligent jackass. Interesting . . .

The ironic part is that LICC completely missed the joke (on him). He's been on so many folks' ignore lists for so long that nobody gives 2 shits about him or his posts. All he can do is follow him around...

> What kind of job/life does EW have that allows him to post 500 times
> throughout the day? hmmm...

Its a fair question. But whatever you want to say about me, what does it say about the pimple who follows me around all day?

Condo glut in Brooklyn?

I guess that would explain the rise in price on a per-square-foot basis (both for re-sales AND new developments)... The rise in the median price AND the average price... The fact that condos sold this quarter where on the market just as long as the condos sold last quarter... The fact that the listing discount was less in this quarter than it was last quarter... The fact that "sales declined less that the overall market sales decline"...

Must be a real glut out there, all this pointing to real weakness. Congrats, EW, your predictions of a crash have been proven correct!

> Must be a real glut out there, all this pointing to real weakness. Congrats, EW, your predictions of
> a crash have been proven correct!

Huh?

Brooklyn apartment sales are down more than 40% YOY (REBNY report)
Same report also noted that avg. price was down
50% of new Brooklyn condos available for sale since 2006 are unsold (Crain's, based on Downtown Partnership data)
20% cuts in multiple new developments (Forte, anyone?)

> The fact that condos sold this quarter where on the market just as
> long as the condos sold last quarter...

With a TON fewer sold. Thats what you call bad news.

> The fact that the listing discount was less in this quarter
> than it was last quarter...

Right after a wave of price chops, so of course.

> The fact that "sales declined less that the overall market sales decline"...

Huh?

A forty PLUS percent decline. And this is a positive?

> The fact that "sales declined less that the overall market sales decline"...

I'm still laughing on this one.... sales decline in X AND Y, but market Y is hot because it declined less than X? This is supposed to tell us that Brooklyn isn't declining? Except you said it.... sales DECLINED.

> What kind of job/life does EW have that allows him to post 500 times
> throughout the day? hmmm...

"Its a fair question."

So what's the answer?

"A forty PLUS percent decline. And this is a positive?"

"With a TON fewer sold. Thats what you call bad news."

Huh?

To quote from the report: "The number of condo sales fell 11.3% to 690 sales, from 778 sales in the prior year quarter." and "Sales declined less that the overall market sales decline" and "Prices rose".

I would suggest going to the top of the second page of the Prudential report posted in the thread above...

As I said, if that's not a crash, I don't know what is.

Wow, Eddie still hasn't learned how to read. Interesting . . .

> So what's the answer?

Make some actual friends and ask *them* their life stories...

> Sales declined less that the overall market sales decline"
Yes, as in apartment sales in Brooklyn declined 40%. What part of that are you missing?

The part where it's possible for you to get it so wrong. Let me quote the report again: "The number of condo sales fell 11.3% to 690 sales, from 778 sales in the prior year quarter."

11.3, not 40.

http://www.prudentialelliman.com/MainSite/MarketReports/ReportsMenu.aspx

"number of sales was a massacre... median sales price slipped 1.9% "
"sales dropped to 2,031, down 26.4% over last quarter, and a whopping 43.6%"
"Number of sales in new developments was down 18.9% percent from last quarter and 33.5% from last year."

Which part of "oh shit" did you not understand?

> Wow, Eddie still hasn't learned how to read. Interesting . . .

Its always the stupidest 3rd graders who spend the most time calling others stupid...

http://www.prudentialelliman.com/NYCPhotos/retail_reports/BMO_2Q08.pdf

What part of 11.3 being less than 40 don't you understand?

> What part of 11.3 being less than 40 don't you understand?

What part of the word "decline" do you not understand? You think that because other numbers are bigger, the loss you are taking is suddenly a gain?

"the loss you are taking is suddenly a gain?"

What loss are you talking about? Because the average sales price, the average price per square foot and the median sales price are all higher than last quarter, and they are all higher than last year, and they are all at all-time highs.

Crash is officially here!

> Because the average sales price, the average price per square foot and the median sales price are
> all higher than last quarter.. ., and they are all higher than last year,

Only if you are illiterate. As noted before, Brooklyn apartment sales down over 40% YOY and median prices are down as well in the same period.

You can repeat yourself all you want, and be as sarcastic as you want, but it takes a special kind of brain to call 40% (or even 11%) declines increases...

"but it takes a special kind of brain to call 40% (or even 11%) declines increases"

Huh? Please show me where I called the 11.3 percent decline it sales "an increase".

Please look at the top of the second page of this report:

http://www.prudentialelliman.com/NYCPhotos/retail_reports/BMO_2Q08.pdf

Please show me where it says that median sales price is down from the first quesrter of '08 or from the second quarter of '07.

The crash is here!!!

"Make some actual friends and ask *them* their life stories..."

But didn't you say it was a "fair question"? It the other thread you said "If someone calls me out, I generally respond." Sounds like you're dodging - not responding.. anyway, I called you out, and you declined to answer.. I'll let you off the hook - now go back to posting more doom and gloom...

Calling me out on logic/data is one thing. Calling me out on personal details... what are you, Sneaky Pete or LIC? Seriously, find some friends.

Eddie, are you being intentionally obtuse, or are you really just that dumb?

The Prudential Elliman PDF shows that not only have average home prices INCREASED over last quarter, but North Brooklyn and "Brownstone" Brooklyn had increases in MEDIAN prices as well.

Also, the report notes that CONDO sales slipped only 11.3 percent. Hardly a crash. Of course, you'll probably skip over the fact that median and average prices for condos went up as well...

BTW, I do agree that the Forte sucks, but I also don't see any units that have had a 20% haircut as you like to claim.

> Please look at the top of the second page of this report:
> http://www.prudentialelliman.com/NYCPhotos/retail_reports/BMO_2Q08.pdf

Just did.

> Please show me where it says that median sales price is down from the first
> quesrter of '08 or from the second quarter of '07.

I'm in the doc. I'm looking at a line that says MEDIAN SALES PRICE for all brooklyn apartments. So I think that qualifies as MEDIAN SALES PRICE...

It says (all in that row)...
Current quarter - $525,000
Prior quarter - $527,000
Prior Year Quarter - $535,000

One what planet is going from $535k to $527k to $525k anything but a decline?

OK, I have to assume that you are playing dumb now. We are talking about the condo glut, right?

Well, go to the second page of the report, look for "CONDO MARKET"... How is going from 476,073 to 506,493 to 514,725 anything but an increase?

> Eddie, are you being intentionally obtuse, or are you really just that dumb?

LICC, dude, before you open your mouth you should be sure that you aren't the dumbest person around.
Median numbers, as I just showed, are down and down again.

WHOOPS.

> The Prudential Elliman PDF shows that not only have average home prices INCREASED over last quarter,
> but North Brooklyn and "Brownstone" Brooklyn had increases in MEDIAN prices as well.

So, now we're picking specific parts? Dude, overall median is down, then down again. For all of brooklyn, all apartments. I'm sorry you have trouble reading, but changing your alias didn't make you any smarter.

> BTW, I do agree that the Forte sucks, but I also don't see any units that have had a
> 20% haircut as you like to claim.

Well, its clear you have trouble with fact, logic, that sort of thing. So here it is spelled out for you:

http://curbed.com/archives/2008/07/02/curbed_pricechopper_the_rest_of_the_fort_again.php

I just find it odd that someone would spend so much time understanding the real estate market, but have no interest in buying or selling or making money on real estate. How could that be? Why not go work for a charity or help people or complain about the war in Iraq or Darfur or childhood obesity or autism? I mean, if you aren't interested in making money, why not spend the effort helping people?

> OK, I have to assume that you are playing dumb now. We are talking about the condo glut, right?

Don't be that dense, Bgaria..

You talked about crash, and I made it clear Brooklyn overall was down...

You said:
> Must be a real glut out there, all this pointing to real weakness. Congrats, EW, your predictions of
> a crash have been proven correct!

I said:

> Brooklyn apartment sales are down more than 40% YOY (REBNY report)
> Same report also noted that avg. price was down
> 50% of new Brooklyn condos available for sale since 2006 are unsold (Crain's, based on Downtown
> Partnership data)
> 20% cuts in multiple new developments (Forte, anyone?)

Right there, I said APARTMENT sales. You can pretend it said something else, but you'd be lying.

As for condo glut, yes, and I gave the stat on that. And gluts usually proceed the worst hits. But, right now they're not selling, only a small fraction are...

You asked for decline data, and there it is. If you want to cherrypick neighborhoods or a small percentage of apartments, well, then you're not being honest.

Yes, Eddie, let's conveniently ignore the part of the report that says that "the performance of individual sub-markets varied greatly" and lump East New York in with Brooklyn Heights.

Fact: Gentrified Brooklyn is doing fine, with average and median price increases from last quarter.

Fact: Condos, while down 11.3% (hardly a crash) in sales, increased in both average and median prices.

> just find it odd that someone would spend so much time understanding the real estate market, but
> have no interest in buying or selling or making money on real estate.

Ootin, why do you feel the need to lie? Are you LICC?
Who said I never made money in real estate?

All I'm talking about is not being invested in NYC RE in 2008. 2002, sure. Other cities, maybe. But don't make shit up I didn't say...

> I mean, if you aren't interested in making money

I'm interesting in making money.. Probably more importantly, I'm very interested in not losing it.
All of which point at not owning NYC RE in 2008...

> Fact: Gentrified Brooklyn is doing fine, with average and median price increases from last quarter.

When sales are down 40%, a couple of high end closing with vastly sway average and median. But look at apples to apples... the same apartments are now listing for and selling for less.

If you considering losing money "fine", hey, great for you. But leave me out.

wait a minute, you are so angry and posting non-stop only because you got out of real estate before 2008? This obsession of yours is simply based on 8 1/2 months, and nothing before 2008?

One more time, OVER FORTY PERCENT decline in sales. Got to be in awful denial to call that anything but a market in turmoil...

> wait a minute, you are so angry and posting non-stop only because you got out of real estate before
> 2008?

Angry? Dude, I'm LOVING IT!

What the heck is wrong with you?

> So, now we're picking specific parts? Dude, overall median is down, then down again. For all of brooklyn, all apartments.

Dude (or should I say dumbass?), real estate is local. Do you think falling prices in Washington Heights or Inwood have any affect on prices in SoHo or TriBeCa? Do you really think that prices in East New York have any bearing on prices in DUMBO or Cobble Hill?

> I'm sorry you have trouble reading, but changing your alias didn't make you any smarter.

Actually, not LIC. Just another person who thinks you're a douche.

Anyway, thanks for the link to the Forte chopper. Pretty awful development, needs a few more price cuts.

> Fact: Gentrified Brooklyn is doing fine, with average and median price increases from last quarter.

>> When sales are down 40%, a couple of high end closing with vastly sway average and median. But look at apples to apples... the same apartments are now listing for and selling for less.

>> If you considering losing money "fine", hey, great for you. But leave me out.

WOW. I almost can't believe how stupid you are. How exactly did gentrified Brooklyn (ie, north Brooklyn and "Brownstone" Brooklyn) lose money when both median and average price have gone up?

Seriously, it's on the FIRST PAGE of the report! Do you have a reading comprehension problem?

is the concern that because there are still people buying that prices won't decline as much as you hope so you can get in at a good deal? Is just a selfish pursuit, a valiant pedalogical effort, or a desire for attention?

> is the concern that because there are still people buying

One more time... FORTY FOUR PERCENT decline. If you want to call that "still buying", hey, stick with it. For good investors to make money, there always need to be folks like you on the other side of the trade.... I remember folks like you saying the same sorts of things about dotcom in 2000 as well.

> Is just a selfish pursuit, a valiant pedalogical effort, or a desire for attention?

Answer why you are obsessed with me, and I'll consider answering...

> WOW. I almost can't believe how stupid you are. How exactly did gentrified Brooklyn (ie, north
> Brooklyn and "Brownstone" Brooklyn) lose money when both median and average price have gone up?

OH MY LORD will someone explain to this guy what medians mean...

But, I guess we need putzes like this to be on the losing end of money making trades...

eddie - i read the entire report and many others. explain away the second sentence - overall avg prices are up over last quarter. you sound like a dunce - the market is crashing yet prices are up. the fact that inventory is rising and sales volume is falling yet prices continue to rise actually hurts your view. shows that sellers still have pricing power. why? b/c they can either rent out or sit tight. no one is getting any bargains here eddie. even the foreclosed brownstones in bedstuy and crown heights are still pricey when one figures in the outstanding liens.

oh, FORTY FOUR PERCENT decline, so people aren't buying. What is the news then? What is the reason for telling people not to buy if people aren't buying?

> the market is crashing yet
> prices are up

Median price down QoQ and YoY. Wow, the idiots are out tonight!

> oh, FORTY FOUR PERCENT decline, so people aren't buying. What is the news then?

That we have the worst inventory problem we've had in years. And that, well, folks aren't buying. Apparently thats news to a lot of folks on this thread.

> shows that sellers still have pricing power.

If you can't sell it, you have no power over the selling price. You can only ask.

> the fact that inventory is rising and sales volume is falling yet prices continue to rise actually
> hurts your view.

Only if you don't understand RE. I don't have time to teach you RE 101 so go read urbandigs.com. But right now, you don't know what you're talking about.

From the report:

"North Brooklyn and Northwest "Brownstone" Brooklyn experienced INCREASES in prices over the prior year quarter...the median sales price of a North Brooklyn property was UP 9% over the prior year quarter and Northwest Brooklyn had a median sales price UP 7.5% over the same period."

OH MY LORD will someone get this dumbass a reading tutor...

I think we found the proof that ESueCho was short on:

EddieWilson
2 minutes ago
ignore this person
report abuse ... you don't know what you're talking about.

Who else besides stevejhx repeatedly says "you don't know what you are talking about"?

Here's another one, Eddie, that I'm sure you won't be able to understand.

Median sales price for the condo market was 8.1% HIGHER than the median sales price of the prior year quarter, and Brooklyn condos had a price per square foot increase of 16.4%.

Seriously, where's the decline?

also

we've now figured out EddieWilson's motivation

> oh, FORTY FOUR PERCENT decline, so people aren't buying. What is the news then?

That we have the worst inventory problem we've had in years. And that, well, folks aren't buying. Apparently thats news to a lot of folks on this thread.

...

seems EddieWilson's sole reason for being here is just to tell those bad bulls and the ignorant people (who should go to Urbandigs instead of wasting time here) that no one is buying.

sole motivation is just to let everyone who is bullish (but still not buying, according to his logic) know that there is a lot of inventory and no buying going on.

Thanks for contributing

EddieWilsonIsADouch, I think you can admit your are LICComment, it is pretty obvious. Don't worry tho, it doesn't subtract from your dislike of EddieWilson.

Meh, it doesn't matter if you think I'm LIC or not.

I don't dislike EddieWilson. I don't know him from Adam, but it's pretty clear from his posts that he's a douche of epic proportions.

Anyway, I can't stand LIC. Really, what's the appeal?

Sorry guys, I've got the geniuses on ignore... LICC will have to create yet another alias to annoy me...

Guys, there's really no sense in having a reasoned argument with EW:

- he conveniently ignores facts that are contrary to his views, and stresses those that support his views to an obnoxious extent

- he must always have the last word, and will often post twice at the end of a thread for (pointless) emphasis

- everyone who take a positive view of real estate in virtually any building or location in Manhattan is a broker / shill (he must have broker / shill on some sort of speed-dial)

No point in responding to his posts directly. Maybe if we just ignore him he'll go away. There are plenty of other posters on this board who do a far more credible (and less annoying) job of taking the side of doom & gloom.

It would be helpful if people would answer real real estate questions. As an occasional reader, I find these discussions unhelpful.

A little later to the party, ap... I already ignored the trolls.

It is ironic that the biggest complainers are the ones who follow me around replying to my posts.
If you don't want to read it, then don't. Ignore it. And definitely don't respond.

But the bitter former bulls seem to have nothing better to do...

LOL.

When someone points out Eddie's mistakes, he conveniently puts them on his "ignore" list so he won't have to answer them.

> It would be helpful if people would answer real real estate questions. As an occasional reader, I
> find these discussions unhelpful.

Agreed. The challenge is, you have former bulls who will do anything to cover up, brush aside, or rationalize "minor details" like 43% sales declines.

Even worse, you have idiotic douche bags (or Eddie, for short) who ignores things like sales prices going up, price per square foot going up, and other facts just so he can go around screaming the sky is falling all day.

I'm not sure why someone making a bullish comment is a challenge.

Say your peace, they say theirs, but saying it more than once doesn't make the position more right, on either side - yours or the bulls. But instead of the repeats, moving on to some other real estate discussion of interest might be the best use of space. Of course, silence after you've exhausted your topics is also ok.

That's just what I think.

> I'm not sure why someone making a bullish comment is a challenge.

Its not... I never said otherwise.

> Say your peace, they say theirs, but saying it more than once doesn't make the position more right,
> on either side

I don't disagree. But going for personal insults certainly doesn't either, and is more likely used to cover up a lack of facts/evidence/logic.

> But instead of the repeats, moving on to some other real estate discussion of
> interest might be the best use of space.

Again, I don't disagree...

But maybe you should take your own advice, and end the non-RE talk.... its ok to leave it be.

If you want RE posts, try posting some of your own. It works.

Thanks for attacking me.

btw, you did say that people making bullish comments is a challenge:

EddieWilson
14 minutes ago
ignore this person
report abuse > It would be helpful if people would answer real real estate questions. As an occasional reader, I
> find these discussions unhelpful.

Agreed. The challenge is, you have former bulls who will do anything to cover up, brush aside, or rationalize "minor details" like 43% sales declines.

Goodnight.

Are you a nutjob?

> Thanks for attacking me.

I didn't attach you, I suggested that if you want RE posts, maybe you should make some."
"But maybe you should take your own advice, and end the non-RE talk.... its ok to leave it be."

If you think thats an attack, you are nutty.

> btw, you did say that people making bullish comments is a challenge:

You are not just nutty, you don't understand English very well.
You quoted me but apparently didn't read it:

"Agreed. The challenge is, you have former bulls who will do anything to cover up, brush aside, or rationalize "minor details" like 43% sales declines."

There is no challenge from bullish statements, they're all good. The challenge AS I NOTED is the "cover up" or "rationaliz[ation]" of actual facts.

Seriously, you've been here 10 minutes and we've gotten only 10 complaints from you.

Wow, I AGREED with you, and you freaked out.

But, hell, if you can't take that, you're going to have a lousy time on this board...

I used to work on one of NYC's suicide hotlines as a volunteer. We had regular callers who we kept databases on so we could best deal with them one time to the next. Eddie reminds me ...

Suicide isn't something to joke about.

When the big losses set in, we're going to have to actually worry about that from some board participants...

First off, I don't have any other aliases. There are just lots of people who see that Eddie Wilson is a douche. He also seems paranoid delusional, thinking that all the posters criticizing him are really me.
Second - way to rudely attack and insult more and more people Eddie. Did dontusesplenda say anything that warranted your rude attitude, insults (calling him/her a nut, saying they can't read)? The answer is no, that you are just a total jackass. You probably have no friends and troll this board just to get some attention. Do you not mind that everyone just wants to you go away? And not because of your real estate view, but because you are a disrespectful, rude, annoying troll?

eddie - what's the deal? do you think people can't read the report themselves? avg prices for q2 were up over q1. median prices were down by a fraction of a percent. let's call it flat. where is the market crash? continuing to deny the facts is just hurting any scintilla of credibility you're still clinging to. let's see where the rising inventory and dropping sales volume lead over the next few quarters, but right now the data is not helping you. you should also consider this point - a unit selling at oro at 15% off listing price is still at a price way above current bk median and avg levels.

so....how about that Toren....

Junkman, are you serious? Yea, good point.

"what's the deal? do you think people can't read the report themselves? avg prices for q2 were up over q1. median prices were down by a fraction of a percent. let's call it flat. where is the market crash? "

According to the report, there hasn't been a market crash - at least not yet. I'm talking brooklyn overall now and I only look y-o-y, sequential is just not that useful given big seasonality changes between 1Q and 2Q. It's clear, average price UP 2.4%, median DOWN 1.9%. BrooklynL, like you said, let's call it flat. But despite all the EW bashing here, he has a point - sales volume down 44%.

Why does that predicate a fall in price? Because it nearly always does. This is sort of basic but it seems like some people don't quite get it:
1) sales volume drops as marginal buyers fall out of the market (for the host of reasons people have said all over this board)
2) inventory (measured in months to sell and not necessarily absolute levels) builds
3) buyers have more selection, and with negative press, sit and wait
4) so volume declines further, and the circle continues. What reverses this funk is price decline until enough buyers come back in.

A few observations on the data.
1) In down volume, its my belief that better quality apartments sell and those of marginal/bad quality don't as well. So that creates a short term upward price bias as volume falls off.
2) Where did the 2.4% increase in average price overall come from? Condos. Every other type of real estate from coops to luxury to family fell in average price.
3) And where did most of the yoy condo price increases came from? New developments. 51% of condo sales were new developments vs. 32% last year and new development prices were up 27% on per sq ft basis.
4) So why is new development up so much? That's open for debate but I think most new developments are made with better finishes, more amenities, so some of that price "increase" is simply accounting for that. Also, new construction in the city could have been signed 12 months ago, in a very different market so again, some of that price increase is simply transactions at the peak filtering through the system now.

Special_K, there can easily be a 3-month lag between contract signed and sale reported closed for resales. For new construction this can be up to 2 years. So I believe you are correct, much of the housing prices we're seeing are what people believed to be fair prices in 2007. People are also looking to buy brand new because of the general belief that new apartments are relatively worry free in comparison to older ones although a check of the topics on tis board proves that is not always the case.

80s man, good point on both the lag and worry free nature of new condos.

http://ny.metro.us/metro/local/article/Apple_store_crowds_irk_some_neighbors/13387.html

Check it out. Does Toren really want Apple?

Are there any happy buyers? It looks like really nice.

All of us who bought early are happy since our purchase has increased in value. For example, I purchased apt.1005 four months ago for $506,000 and now 1105 is now being priced for $577,000. Same exact apartment one floor higher for $71,000 more. There are other lines that have increased also. Prior increases have sold so we can assume that management knows what they are doing when increasing prices at such a fantastic rate. I'd be shocked if anyone who has purchased has any regrets unless they are adverse to price appreciation. Fact is, I'm getting use to new amendments (6 to date) and expect to see more on a monthly basis. lol

> According to the report, there hasn't been a market crash - at least not yet.

Well, Manhattan is now down 6-7% in Q3, and that doesn't even include the Wall Street panic period.

Very curious to see what Brooklyn numbers are for the period, as they started descending a quarter before Manhattan... and MUCH more inventory...

nyc10022, look at Be@Schermerhorn and look at current prices and I guarantee that they will have major drop in prices, that is if they don't go rental beforehand.

Clermont on Myrtle just went from condo to rental. I hate to agree with EddieWilson but Downtown Brooklyn will have a major glut. Just hope Toren keeps bucking the trend.

http://www.brownstoner.com/brownstoner/archives/2008/09/zoinks_the_cler.php

Say what you want, but an apartment 3 floors above mine closed for 10% higher than I paid (and there are no views from my line to be gained from being higher up)...

When did it go into contract?

This week.

It went into contract and closed in the same week? Is it me, or is that a record?

My mistake, should have said it entered contract this week.

Gocha. Did you find out the other details that would affect price? As in closing cost coverage, freebies, etc?

Would be interesting to have some comparables...

When did you sign your contract? And do you want to give anything more specific around price level/size?

I'm noticing that 1403 sold for 4% more than 1003, 1804 for 3% more than 1604, 2204 5% more than 1804, and 3304 12% more than that... 1901 went for 5% more than 1501.

So 4-5% could be the floor differential...

Could me, but it's more likely to be gradual increase in prices as they sell more apartments. Plus 10% is too high to be floor differential (no views are improved with higher floors).

Right, I said 4-5% looks to be the floor differential for a couple of floors....

You can also look at this on streeteasy...

108 active sales listings: $760 per ft² (avg)
15 previous sales listings: $792 per ft² (avg)

There has been speculation as to whether the Toren will lower prices. Though it appears that every other development in the surrounding area has made a decision to do just that, I'm really starting to think that the Toren may be able to survive without a price decline.

My reasons are threefold:

Firstly, the building has more than 40% of the building in contract and the curtain wall isn't even completed. Most lower floored apartments are in contract and the higher floors will be more attractive once they can actually be shown to the general public. If the amenities are half as attractive as they look in the renderings, this has got to help sales. My point is, the building once completed will bring in more traffic and consequently more sales.

The attached article seems to reflect very well what I think management can haNg their hat:

http://nymag.com/realestate/realestatecolumn/52736/

Secondly, the Avalon Bay is moving along quite nicely. Its outside landscaping looks very nice as per rendering. Considering that this is directly across the street from the Toren entrance on Myrtle, it can't help but help the sales process.

Thirdly, if the City Point project is a go in January, this will be the icing on the cake in making this location very attractive for the price. Now if that project is delayed further,it may have a negative effect though I doubt it.

Another point, if sales continue to be nonexistent in the foreseeable future, such closing cost as lawyer fees, transfer taxes etc will be negotiated.

I'm taking bets that the Toren doesn't reduce actual sales prices in the next 12 months. If interested in taking me up on that offer, contact my bookie, Tony Romano at 718-555-1212. No restrictions on the amount of wager.

> Firstly, the building has more than 40% of the building in contract

Isn't that a bit of a decline from the claimed 50% sold months ago?

Also, 40% after, what, a year of selling. Thats awful. And, if sales have slowed to a crawl (or negative as the stats show) how does that bode well for anything?

> Secondly, the Avalon Bay is moving along quite nicely.

How is competition going to help?

Junkman, what odds are you giving.

Avalon Bay is LUXURY RENTAL on Flatbush Ext. and Toren obviously is condo.

Junkman, where are all these qualified buyers you're going to convince to buy? It's so much harder to get a loan right now. Last month, we decided to get pre-approval again just so we're sure we're not over our heads because we were interested in some unit in Brooklyn Heights and they're much stricter than when we did it earlier this year.

Also, when was the last time anyone signed a contract with On Prospect Park? They were able to sign a lot of people before mid-October, which was really good for them. I don't know how many went into contract after mid-October. More importantly, how many actually went into contract lately in all of Brooklyn? I usually get alerts from StreetEasy and I can tell you I am barely getting any updates on signed contracts lately. The only one I can remember is the one that actually sold in 75 Smith from over 1M to 700K. Since there are a lot of units available for buyers to choose, and some buildings are already negotiable, why would I not negotiate to be in a better area and get more space if Toren is not negotiable? Yeah, they can pay for my closing costs, etc, for a one-bedroom, but how much will that save me really and it's still one-bedroom? While my money can go a long way in another devt, maybe I can get a 2-bedroom in another devt. And considering the state of the economy, it would be prudent for me to get a 2-bedroom so I can stay longer than anticipated. If not for the detention center, 75 Smith looks like a good deal because it's in a top floor and it's a duplex. Also, Toren may not lower their prices on paper, but when you get there you may actually able to negotiate a lower price, which is the case with most of the new devs in BK anyway. Unfortunately, I will not be able to find that out cuz I'm not interested with Toren right now.

> If not for the detention center, 75 Smith looks like a good deal because it's in a top floor and
> it's a duplex

Which do we think is a bigger drag on prices.... proximity to jail or housing projects?

Both are quite undesirable, but I gotta say that I'm not sold where Toren is located. With 75 Smith, that's a much better neighborhood except for that detention center. I gotta admit though I don't trust being in a building with over 100 units in a supposedly up-and-coming area. Plus there's a bad precedence of what can happen--just look at Oro.

cleanslate - the immediate area of Oro, Toren, etc needs to be judged by its future state, not its present state. the area of 75 smith is pretty much now what its going to be. so if you doubt the transformation of the Oro area then maybe ypur concerns holds water. but do you really doubt that transformation? i'd love to know why if the answer is yes b/c based on what i know about the money at work and going to work right now, this baby is happening - big time. in fact, the moves taken by stakeholders over the past 6 months have actually strengthened my view.

junkman - toren is not doing deals at list anytime soon. the most recent amendment prices on available units are based on a market that has taken a hiatus. they'll do their deals below ask and likely foot most of the transfer taxes - if dealing with a buyer who has half a brain. when closing prices hit acris later in time you can collect all the data. but don't get lost in the weeds - 15 years from now the discount in sale pricing will be immaterial from your perspective when the area is developed and your unit is up triple digits percentage-wise.

BrooklynLove and cleanslate both make excellent points which is why I truly appreciate their contributions to this and other boards.

cleanslate, I spend, at minimum, 6 hours a day watching and reading about the market 6 days a week. I live the market. Believe me, I'm well aware of the economic conditions the city is facing. When jobs do return, the incomes generated will decrease due to drastic reductions in the use of leverage and aversion to risk. In fact, I am a product of the devastation you are talking about. I have all my money in the market, with a 30% allocation to intermediate bonds. I have lost more than a quarter of my net worth in the last year. Unfortunately, I worked at Citibank in my past and had a fondness for it, as well as, a large holding. I got out at $26 dollars but lost a ton before sanity prevailed. (Note: bought back some shares @$4+ and made some money back. My point is, I'm one of those buyers that when signing my contract to purchase, had more than enough to cover my costs.

Unfortunately, my financial situation has changed drastically. If market doesn't pick up, I will be forced to rent, at best.

As both of you have pointed out, the market has change for all developers. The demand equation is much different than only 6 months ago. Cleanslate is entirely correct, there is inventory out there that is selling at discounts and the situation will only improve for buyers. Cash is king and buyers know that they only have to wait and supply will have to make more and more concessions. We haven't seen anything yet with regards to unemployment. The city is cash poor and corporate and small businesses are just as strapped. Most economists that I respect are talking more than a year before we truly hit bottom. Six month prognostications are ludicrous.

BrooklynLove, don't know what insight you have to stakeholders but I hope you are correct. Ratner is going forward at 80 DeKalb and Lazerian is doing his thing on Tillary and the 51 storied tower on 111 Lawrence is moving along nicely plus Sheraton and Loft but I have my reservations about CityPoint and Willoughby Square Park and Bridge street (recently purchased by Avalon Bay). It just doesn't make economic sense at this time to build. Downtown Brooklyn is still considered a fringe area and the same rules apply in an economic downturn. (Fringe first then Prime) Mortons is empty. Been there twice and I was the only customer. (By the way, Mortons has excellent happy hour 4:30 to 6:30 at the bar with excellent side dishes at $6. ie. 3 mini burgers or 3 crab cakes and more. Great deal. They are wisely responding to the current environment. Is Toren, as well as, just about every other development in Downtown Brooklyn going to face the new economic reality? The first that does may have a leg up on the competition. If I was BFC Partners, I would hire a good economist and develop an extensive cost/benefit analysis on different time frames, and be conservative, and adopt the worst case scenario ie. mini depression then act accordingly. If they think the market will pick up in the next six months, I can tell them right now, as an amatuer economist (BA undergraduate) that it is only going to get worse.

Life in NYC has changed considerably and I would want to be in the front of the curve and price accordingly to sell inventory at a profit though albeit a smaller one. Developers mindsets have got to change. I truly think that they think a turnaround is just around the corner. Are they banking (no pun intended) on the Obama 1 trillion economic stimulus? Bad bet.

The Toren looks incredible and will sell. It just a question of price points.

Time to buy? Manhattan home prices plunging

By Jason Fink

With Manhattan real estate prices now estimated to be down by as much as 20 percent since the summer, New Yorkers may sense an opportunity to buy in.

"I'm in the market to buy in the next year or two," said Arzo Anwar, 31, who rents in the Financial District. "I've heard that prices have dropped."

In fact, the current edition of the Federal Reserve Board's Beige Book – an economic snapshot of various regions released eight times a year – paints a picture of a plummeting market.

"Transaction activity has dropped off noticeably, and there has been a large increase in the number of listings," says the report, released earlier this month.

The beige book findings are based on an analysis by real estate appraisal firm Miller Samuel.

"It's basically our observation that something that contracts today is selling for 20 percent less than something that was contracted for this summer," said Jonathan Miller, the company's president. "The milestone point was that one-week period when Lehman went bankrupt, Fannie and Freddie were bailed out and AIG was bailed out. That's when we started to see a real tangible change."

He attributed the drop to a lack of available credit and the implosion on Wall Street, which has left many without year-end bonuses.

Lockhart Steele, the founder of the real estate Web site curbed.com, said 20 percent might even be too low.

"Behind the scenes, brokers are whispering even scarier numbers, like 30 or 40 percent," he said.

Miller would not provide average sales prices, saying he would wait until the fourth quarter report is published.

The company numbers for the third quarter, which ended in September, showed an 11 percent drop in the average price of a Manhattan apartment, to $1.48 million.

Officials at two top real estate firms, Corcoran and Halstead, declined to comment.

In the world-famous Dakota, a luxury building on Central Park West, a 10-room apartment listed in October for $19.5 million, down 19 percent from its original $24 million in June.

"I'm not surprised by any of the statistics these days," said Alex Sczesnak, 24, of the Bronx. "The recession hit us a lot later than the rest of the country. I guess it's finally hit us here."

The drop in sale prices may be forcing some into the rental market.

"Many of those having difficulty selling their apartments are putting them up for rent, boosting the number of rental listings substantially," the Beige Book report says. "Average asking rents are reported to be down 1 to 4 percent from a year earlier."

While some in the industry have been saying that Manhattan real estate would buck national trends, the crash now seems to be in full swing.

"It would be ludicrous for someone to think that New York wouldn't be affected," said Greg Easton, vice president of Kahr Real Estate. "It's going to be a buyer's market for a while."

"Behind the scenes, brokers are whispering even scarier numbers, like 30 or 40 percent,"

We've got ways to go here.

Not sure why you posted this on this thread, though...

junkman - 80 dekalb is great but a bit of a red herring b/c ratner has very little risk there due to the huge bond financing component. he has little skin in that game on relative terms. keep watching the fulton mall f-bush tillary triangle ... and be patient - trust your gut.

B-Love,

The key is if CityPoint restarts construction in January. As I mentioned earlier, I was told that they would start construction in January and hope they don't change their mind. From my ill informed perspective, I can't see how it would be profitable in the next 2 years at minimum. The demand just isn't there both for commercial and residential customers. The one thing that helps is that they apparently have an anchor client with Target and a few others that are committed to the site. Can they back out if they want to? I presume yes.

If you were a bank. would you lend on this huge project when there is already a glut of condos and rentals hitting the market in the immediate area? I wouldn't. I would want the dust to settle and wait to there is even a glimmer of demand.

BLove, we know that the NYC market is changing forever. Financial firms will not make the money they have in the past. Their high leverage business model is over and with that high salaries. The real estate market needs the financial community to boost prices. That is over.

Let's keep an eye on CityPoint if it restarts building then obviously they have greater insight into future real estate cycles and I will return to my over exuberant optimism.

How about those Nets? If Ratner can get that area built, I'll be extremely happy.

BrooklynLove,

You make an interesting point about BFC possibly making deals below the radar at prices below those stated in the amendments. That said, if the developer lower prices below those already agreed to by other buyers, they will make it hard (if not impossible) for those other buyers to close once the appraisal values come in. It would be a silly strategy to increase sales at the margins at the expense of the bulk of the existing contracts that would have difficulties closing... My $0.02...

Quick question: how will this affect Toren?

http://ny.therealdeal.com/articles/new-fannie-regulations-tighten-screws-on-new-development-purchases

Maybe there's an out for you, Junkman?

Cleanslate,

Don't really want an out if I can afford the Toren. Remember, I'm its biggest shill.

If this is enacted this will be very damaging to developers. Itobviously would affect the Toren in a very negative way. The Toren is not about to be 70% sold unless they make drastic changes in their price points. As much as I want to be able to afford to live in the Toren, I don't want it so bad that it will completely decimate the entire real estate industry. lol

ap - appraisals are based on more than units in the same building. any effect on early buyers closing/financing would not be significant unless the developer does massive cutting - which he won't.

the new condo mortgage buying regs could be an issue but new developments are dealing with this by having a prefrerred lender who takes the risk. wells fargo is a common example for many buildings. does toren have a lender du jour?

junkman - you need to look beyond current general market conditions. once confidence returns (which will happen) you'll see more deals. there is lots of interest but no one wants to commit right now. the fundamentals that generated interest and investment here have not changed, and more interest is watching and waiting.

consider that developers also generally have loans dependent on selling a certain portion of apartments by a certain date... so not being able to sell could lead to further problems...

Is Toren still on track for Spring closing? With all the problems Oro buyers are having, plus 535 Dean Street, I think it would be wise that if you are interested with these new devs in BK that you wait till the whole thing is finished and all the complaints are addressed at the very least.

Wells Fargo has 'approved' Toren. As far as I'm concerned, I have a loan guarantee and a lock (with an option to float down) - as long as the appraisal value comes through, Wells Fargo is oblitaged to go through with the mortgage.

They're pushing for Spring closings - obviously, it's all dependent on their ability to get a TCO.

Toren has sold at least 90 market rate apartments. They state that they've sold 55% of the building's 240 apartments under the assumption that all the affordable units will sell. The application and approval process for the affordable units is complicated an not reported by Halstead, which is why they don't show up anywhere...

I assume by "sold" you mean in contract.

What about contigencies? What do the contracts say in terms of folks who can't get mortgages? I'm assuming there is no out clause for that in the contracts...

So the affordable units that have been in contract do not display here on StreetEasy? How affordable are they? And are all of them in the lower floors or scattered around the building?

Hey cleanslate, if you make less than $138K and don't mind living on floors 3 thru 6, you can be my neighbor. I need someone in the building who will allow me to borrow butter or milk when times are rough.

Junkman, let me know once Toren sells 2-bedroom units for $600K at the higher floors with Manhattan views, I may re-think the whole thing and I'll let you borrow butter or milk any day. LOL! In the meantime, I'm keeping my eye on Brooklyn Heights. :)