"Manhattan is still supported by international demand,”
Started by alpine292
over 17 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008
Discussion about
America's 25 Weakest Housing Markets Manhattan, now at the epicenter of the financial crisis, is noticeably absent from the top 25 weakest markets list. So far, the city has been isolated from the popping bubbles in the rest of the country. Property prices were rising in Manhattan until early last year. Zandi believes Manhattan could be spared a steep drop. He expects a fall of around 20%. Even if... [more]
America's 25 Weakest Housing Markets
Manhattan, now at the epicenter of the financial crisis, is noticeably absent from the top 25 weakest markets list. So far, the city has been isolated from the popping bubbles in the rest of the country.
Property prices were rising in Manhattan until early last year. Zandi believes Manhattan could be spared a steep drop. He expects a fall of around 20%. Even if big bankers lose their bonuses, "Manhattan is still supported by international demand," he says.
That prediction may prove conservative. The value of new contracts signed have already dipped 15% to 20% in the fourth quarter, according to a Beige Book report from the U.S. Federal Reserve last month.
The report said much of the activity came from "desperate sellers," so it may not be a fair gauge of where prices will go from here.
Of course, that depends on how many more sellers become desperate.
http://www.forbes.com/realestate/2009/01/07/housing-cities-realestate-forbeslife-cx_do_0107realestateweak.html[less]
Response by alpine292
over 17 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008
Any thoughts? I know most people here beleive that prices are already down 20%, so what would that do for a prediction that prices will onyl fall by 20%?
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Response by nyc10022
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
"The report said much of the activity came from "desperate sellers," so it may not be a fair gauge of where prices will go from here. "
That is the dumbest rationalization I've ever heard.
The market decline doesn't count because it came from desperation... thats like saying we can't tell if its raining because its hard to see with all the rain in front of us.
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Response by nyc10022
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
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Btw, WHAT international demand? Even with the major discounts, sales are down 75%.
Has this guy even been to Manhattan?
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Response by nyc10022
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
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> I know most people here beleive that prices are already down 20%, so what would that do for a
> prediction that prices will onyl fall by 20%?
Make it about as meaningful as your claims...
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Response by aj202
over 17 years ago
Posts: 49
Member since: Nov 2008
International buyers seeking mortgages can't get them. Cash buyers may hang around the edges but go call any bank/broker (oddly except C- the only one offering anything <50% down pmt) and ask the question. They're not financing them. Even with rates down today- I got quoted 4.875 on a jumbo w/ 1 pt, you shouldn't expect those stricter rules to change.
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Response by aj202
over 17 years ago
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sorry- C is the only bank financing foreigners at anything < 50% down payments. The rest have simply dropped out, and you shouldn't expect that to change soon.
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Response by nyc10022
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
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If a market "supported" by XXX and YYY saw a 75% drop in sales...
tell us exactly what a "non-supported" market looks like?
Obama being the only guy moving?
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Response by alpine292
over 17 years ago
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Can't foreign buyers get mortgages in their home countries?
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Response by nyc10022
over 17 years ago
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also keep in mind, foreigners are generally limited to condos. Meaning 2/3-3/4 of the market is out of reach...
So, where do the irish carpenters hang out, anyway?
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Response by Seamus
over 17 years ago
Posts: 61
Member since: May 2007
thus we'll see a drop in coop prices but not in condos...
"Has this guy even been to Manhattan?"
--> has this guy been around wealthy tycoons abroad?
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Response by steveF
over 17 years ago
Posts: 2319
Member since: Mar 2008
nyc10022...I hate to be blunt and I don't normally do this, but you should thank me for being honest since most people wouldn't want to hurt your feelings..I cherish those who tell me like it is, favorable or not...here goes....Your opinions, thoughts and arguments are pretty much meaningless. You constantly contradict yourself and you dont't offer any thought provoking ideas/arguments. It's more or less you are just taking up space.....sorry...try rationalizing first and think it out before you post. Give us some substance lady.
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Response by aj202
over 17 years ago
Posts: 49
Member since: Nov 2008
Foreign buyers can get mortgages in their local countries, but it is frequently much more difficult to do so. Many countries require local homes secured against that US property and tax considerations vary dramatically. Probably why int'l buyers index as cash buyers up to 3x more so than US buyers, and obviously, in a tighter credit market, those cash buyers disappearance is even more impactful.
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Response by bjw2103
over 17 years ago
Posts: 6236
Member since: Jul 2007
"That is the dumbest rationalization I've ever heard.
The market decline doesn't count because it came from desperation"
Who said it "doesn't count"? It's only a hypothesis that this is the extent of the damage from the truly desperate sellers. I don't really agree with it either, but no need to take on such a shrill tone and call this "dumb rationalization."
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Response by nyc10022
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
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> Who said it "doesn't count"?
the original article...
"so it may not be a fair gauge of where prices will go from here. "
"Your opinions, thoughts and arguments are pretty much meaningless. You constantly contradict yourself and you dont't offer any thought provoking ideas/arguments. "
Yes, steve, why don't YOU tell us all how to be more meaningful and thought provoking like you?
Would it have been better if I was wrong about the market not declining, like you? It I had called the market 100% wrong by saying it was going up, as you did, would that be better?
Tell us, oh master, what exactly do you add here other than denial?
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Response by nyc10022
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
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> Give us some substance lady.
ROTFL....
always the hypocrites...
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Response by steveF
over 17 years ago
Posts: 2319
Member since: Mar 2008
> Give us some substance lady.
"ROTFL....
always the hypocrites...
Yes, steve, why don't YOU tell us all how to be more meaningful and thought provoking like you?
Would it have been better if I was wrong about the market not declining, like you? It I had called the market 100% wrong by saying it was going up, as you did, would that be better?
Tell us, oh master, what exactly do you add here other than denial?"
see what i mean, that (above) is meaningless. Although I like the Master part...don't just trash the market, offer up some interesting and substantial points of view. I wouldn't be saying this but you post ALOT.
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Response by nyc10022
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
Still avoiding the question, I see... exactly what do you think you add here, Steve?
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Response by bjw2103
over 17 years ago
Posts: 6236
Member since: Jul 2007
"> Who said it "doesn't count"?
the original article...
"so it may not be a fair gauge of where prices will go from here. ""
It does not say it doesn't count. It's saying it's no sure thing that the trend will continue or worsen, which is a perfectly fair statement. You are hypersensitive to anyone who does not agree verbatim with what you say.
steveF, there was no need for the call-out though.
Any thoughts? I know most people here beleive that prices are already down 20%, so what would that do for a prediction that prices will onyl fall by 20%?
"The report said much of the activity came from "desperate sellers," so it may not be a fair gauge of where prices will go from here. "
That is the dumbest rationalization I've ever heard.
The market decline doesn't count because it came from desperation... thats like saying we can't tell if its raining because its hard to see with all the rain in front of us.
Btw, WHAT international demand? Even with the major discounts, sales are down 75%.
Has this guy even been to Manhattan?
> I know most people here beleive that prices are already down 20%, so what would that do for a
> prediction that prices will onyl fall by 20%?
Make it about as meaningful as your claims...
International buyers seeking mortgages can't get them. Cash buyers may hang around the edges but go call any bank/broker (oddly except C- the only one offering anything <50% down pmt) and ask the question. They're not financing them. Even with rates down today- I got quoted 4.875 on a jumbo w/ 1 pt, you shouldn't expect those stricter rules to change.
sorry- C is the only bank financing foreigners at anything < 50% down payments. The rest have simply dropped out, and you shouldn't expect that to change soon.
If a market "supported" by XXX and YYY saw a 75% drop in sales...
tell us exactly what a "non-supported" market looks like?
Obama being the only guy moving?
Can't foreign buyers get mortgages in their home countries?
also keep in mind, foreigners are generally limited to condos. Meaning 2/3-3/4 of the market is out of reach...
So, where do the irish carpenters hang out, anyway?
thus we'll see a drop in coop prices but not in condos...
"Has this guy even been to Manhattan?"
--> has this guy been around wealthy tycoons abroad?
nyc10022...I hate to be blunt and I don't normally do this, but you should thank me for being honest since most people wouldn't want to hurt your feelings..I cherish those who tell me like it is, favorable or not...here goes....Your opinions, thoughts and arguments are pretty much meaningless. You constantly contradict yourself and you dont't offer any thought provoking ideas/arguments. It's more or less you are just taking up space.....sorry...try rationalizing first and think it out before you post. Give us some substance lady.
Foreign buyers can get mortgages in their local countries, but it is frequently much more difficult to do so. Many countries require local homes secured against that US property and tax considerations vary dramatically. Probably why int'l buyers index as cash buyers up to 3x more so than US buyers, and obviously, in a tighter credit market, those cash buyers disappearance is even more impactful.
"That is the dumbest rationalization I've ever heard.
The market decline doesn't count because it came from desperation"
Who said it "doesn't count"? It's only a hypothesis that this is the extent of the damage from the truly desperate sellers. I don't really agree with it either, but no need to take on such a shrill tone and call this "dumb rationalization."
> Who said it "doesn't count"?
the original article...
"so it may not be a fair gauge of where prices will go from here. "
"Your opinions, thoughts and arguments are pretty much meaningless. You constantly contradict yourself and you dont't offer any thought provoking ideas/arguments. "
Yes, steve, why don't YOU tell us all how to be more meaningful and thought provoking like you?
Would it have been better if I was wrong about the market not declining, like you? It I had called the market 100% wrong by saying it was going up, as you did, would that be better?
Tell us, oh master, what exactly do you add here other than denial?
> Give us some substance lady.
ROTFL....
always the hypocrites...
> Give us some substance lady.
"ROTFL....
always the hypocrites...
Yes, steve, why don't YOU tell us all how to be more meaningful and thought provoking like you?
Would it have been better if I was wrong about the market not declining, like you? It I had called the market 100% wrong by saying it was going up, as you did, would that be better?
Tell us, oh master, what exactly do you add here other than denial?"
see what i mean, that (above) is meaningless. Although I like the Master part...don't just trash the market, offer up some interesting and substantial points of view. I wouldn't be saying this but you post ALOT.
Still avoiding the question, I see... exactly what do you think you add here, Steve?
"> Who said it "doesn't count"?
the original article...
"so it may not be a fair gauge of where prices will go from here. ""
It does not say it doesn't count. It's saying it's no sure thing that the trend will continue or worsen, which is a perfectly fair statement. You are hypersensitive to anyone who does not agree verbatim with what you say.
steveF, there was no need for the call-out though.