1500 sq ft on the UWS or UES with good outdoor space

your criteria are way too general to estimate a price. UES and UWS are huge, and prices vary. Also, what, to you, constitutes outdoor space? finally, merde is not a very helpful descriptio - what are you not liking about the places you've seen.

ttp://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/358615-condo-150-east-85th-street-upper-east-side-new-york

This had the best outdoor space of the options we've seen, good condition apt, and in a great area. But too small for us, and way overpriced, in my opinion. I would imagine this has to go to or under $1.5MM to sell now.

by "good" outdoor space I meant a terrace, not a balcony - maybe 200sq ft.

i have visited maybe a dozen open houses on the UWS in the 70-90s and same on the UES west of 3rd. What i saw were either poorly combined apts or apts whose layouts resembled a victorian maze or terraces that were large enough to go outside and smoke a cigarette but certainly not to entertain.

i guess my overall point is that the supply of what I thought would be a quality apt is nil. In over a dozen places I have visited I have yet to see an apt that I said to myself "man, I can really see myself living here!" And I have been visiting places that are asking in the low $2mm, thinking I could bid them down.

I guess my overall point is that it is hard to say what's going on in the market because there is little stuff out there to fall in love with.

anyway - my $0.02

Bender-

Couldn't agree with you more. The quality of the apartments I've seen on the UES (around 1,500 sf and ~$1.5mm, don't care about terrace) east of 3rd, and even into midtown is atrocious. Even if prices come off 30-40%, many of these places would be servicable, but hardly exciting. Small kitchens, disjointed layouts, and SO many apartments that look neglected. Every place I've seen seems to need at least 1 bathroom reno, new floors, a few new fixtures, baseboards. It seems like in my price range, the standard procedure was to throw all your money into paying for the apartment, forget any improvements and just ride the RE wave for 100% appreciation or house-rich and cash-poor.
Obviously, I would expect many of the apts you've looked at ($2mm or so) to fall into my price range but frankly, of those I've looked at, they're all underwhelming too. I think my expectations are reasonably well grounded, but for all the people on this site who speak to "just buy something you love," I call BS..Who the F@# could love much of this crap?

It's probably because people are happy living in the ones you could see yourself living in. :)

Just curious, is that 1500sf for a 2BR or 3BR?
How about the new dev's on the UWS/UES? Any decent layouts left?

Or they maintain an inflated sense of apartment worth...and mostly 2's

bender, what are you realistically willing to spend? I am working with someone right now who is looking for something similar (a bit higher price points and 3 beds) and know of some interesting things...

Decent outdoor space to me translates into a large terrace, at least 200 sqft. Or a great wraparound terrace. Or a garden level of a brownstone. And not somewhere that's smack in the middle of hundreds of eyes looking down at you. Hard to come by on the UWS. I'm familiar with most of the buildings, and usually the apts are much larger or have been annexed by the neighbors a long time ago.

AR - I'd like to spend $1.5mm but maybe I would go up to $1.7 if I really had my breath taken away. I don't think of apts in terms of bedrooms but rather sq footage - so am fairly indifferent between 2 and 3 bedrooms.

I know prices are not there yet, but I'm willing to wait. I know someone who bought such an apt for $2.35 at the peak, so I'm figuring 40% down gets me to where I want to go. So I've been searching for apts listed in the low 2s, but I have not seen one single apt yet where I said to myself "I love it, I just need to wait for the price to drop." Rather, all I see is stuff where I go "maybe I'd pay 50% of what they're asking for, but honestly, I don't even know why I would do that."

Bender, what you are looking for will always be hard to find. Patience, my friend.

kas - i know that.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/364215-coop-24-west-70th-street-lincoln-square-new-york
probably about 20%+ smaller than what you are looking for, but looks like pretty nice outdoor space and a great location.

bender1961 "I know prices are not there yet, but I'm willing to wait. I know someone who bought such an apt for $2.35 at the peak, so I'm figuring 40% down gets me to where I want to go. So I've been searching for apts listed in the low 2s, but I have not seen one single apt yet where I said to myself "I love it, I just need to wait for the price to drop." Rather, all I see is stuff where I go "maybe I'd pay 50% of what they're asking for, but honestly, I don't even know why I would do that."

Dude not even if you tap your rubies three times while repeating "prices will drop" will you ever get your apartment!
You are F'en dreaming.

ruff..not reading all the posts to deeply...I think $1,000psf with some out door space is definately doable. Classic sixes on WEA and RSD are trading at $850psft..he won't be on park, 5th, CPW or RSD, but certainly 1st, 2nd or Broadway could/will happen.
So are these the detes
1. UES or UWS
2. 1,500 sqft
3. at least 200sqft outdoor space
4. don't care about number of bedroom
5. budget of $1,500,000-$1,700,000

that will happen..I would almost "short" him one there

patient09

Yes, you are right. You have not read all the post deeply.

ruff: cool...but one try anyway..trying to help the fella you know

http://www.prudentialelliman.com/1065906

Spiderman - I love how the 9x12 space at the 24W 70th st is called a bedroom. Didn't that used to be called a walk-in closet? Would a bed fir there? There should be a convention that any space that cannot hold a bed and a dresser (not one on top of the other) cannot be labeled "bedroom."

Sort of reminds me of Doonesburry strip (back from the 70s here) when Mike finishes college and is looking for an apartment in Manhattan, he's looking at an apartment with a broker and he says "Charming foyer, where is the rest of the apartment?" and the next pannel the broker is going "ha ha ha!!!"

patient09 - thanks - I was planning on seeing it, I will write up a report when I do - unless I absolutely love it in which case I will write it up as a roach infested dump :)

peace...good luck

I know the interior is too small, but I thought you'd enjoy the terrace:
http://www.prudentialelliman.com/Listings.aspx?ListingID=1071779

$2.5MM seemed nutty enough. Then I realized it was listed with Halstead last year for $3.337MM:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/276961-condo-101-west-79th-street-upper-west-side-new-york

Here's a fun one. Ugly monthlies, but just reduced to $1.69MM after opening last March at $2.9MM, and highly motivated to go lower:
http://www.prudentialelliman.com/Listings.aspx?ListingID=965392
aka http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/211287-condo-225-east-86th-street-yorkville-new-york

Judging by the prior sales of the other penthouse in the building, this one will probablt trade at a 2003-ish level.

81: humor me for a bit. Lets say I dig this bachelor pad looking place with the styling outdoor scene. I think its worth 750psf *1681sqft=$1,260,750. I dig the terrace..so give them another $200,000 for that. Gets me to $1,460,750. Now the $4,367 monthly is nasty, never will get that back. Worse case, this shack should be $2,700 per month. So, I need to recapture the net present value of $1,667 per month into perpetuity. Unfortunately, interest are extraordinarily low today, so, using a 7yr target, call rates 2% for a round number. I need to discount the apt by $1,000,200. Therefore, $1,460,750-$1,000,200=$460,550. You think they will bite. These apts with high monthlies are going to be a nightmare.

Patient09 - it's worse than that, as the taxes will likely go up

btw, this listing that you posted earlier is in contract
http://www.prudentialelliman.com/1065906 (not listed on SE)

bender:
hopefully that apt went into contract with you, look like a nice place.

the tax issue issue is not relevant. In the aggregate all apts will go up equally. My $2,700 number was to equalize from a baseline. Therefore, if/when taxes rise, the $2,700 will rise, so my perceived nasty monthly spread won't change.

my point was the opposite - if you're trying to compensate for tax and maintenance that are normatively too high by lowering the purchase price and therefore the mortgage payments (which is the exactly correct thing to do) i was pointing out that your mortgage service payments will remain fixed (assuming a fixed mortgage, you'd be an idiot to get anything else today) while the taxes and maintenance will rise over time, so therefore you need to overcompensate for that if you will by lowering the purchase price even more (or less if you think taxes and maintenance will go down - ha!)

and that other apt did not go into contract with me, I truly think buying RE today is like buying CSCO at $60. Sure you feel good you're not paying peak price (which I believe was in the 80s) and are getting 20% off from peak, but you're going to feel like a total schmuck when it breaks $20 on the way down.

Seriously, take this apt on E 86st we're discussing. If you buy it at the current offer ($1.7mm) you're paying 11,500/mo. That's 135K/yr or $270K in pre-tax money. That's $270K of your salary allocated to your landlord off the tap, before paying for SBUX, laundry and FreshDirect, not to mention kid's schooling and other expenses. Who can afford it w/o dipping into your principle? And do you really want to bet on that Wall St salaries will bounce back in one year and it will be "Happy days are here again?" I work on Wall St and I certainly don't have these expectations anymore.

Seriously, give me the profile of a guy who is sanguine about signing up for 11.5K / mo for the next 30yrs. I seriously would like to understand

bender, I think your discount rate in your analysis is too low. Yes, interest rates right now are very low, but I would bet that if I offered you $1MM today or $1MM with 2% interest compounded 2% for 7 years (i.e. $1.15MM if I did that right), I bet you'd take the $1MM today. I think you have to use your discount rate when trading off purchase price for monthlies, not a market risk-free rate.

As for your question about the profile of a guy who is sanguine about signing up for $11.5MM for 30 years, I think it depends on two things. (1) his financial situation and (2) his alternatives.

So, for instance, say you have a two-income family with an income of $2MM/year, that they perceive as fairly safe. Enough of a cushion in savings. They have two kids and don't want any more. So the next apartment they buy can be forever - i.e. a very long term time horizon. They don't want to rent for a variety of reasons, but at least partly because there just aren't a lot of rentals that fit their criteria. I can see them signing up for the $11.5K monthly.

Of course, none of the above means they should buy this apartment (I agree that it's overpriced given the monthlies). Just saying for the right apartment and the right value, the $11.5K / month may make sense.

Here's a good data point: This penthouse in ultraprime UES appears to have sold for $2.2MM. 1550 sf interior, 600 sf terrace, full reno... and a hot tub!
http://www.edwardleecave.com/ViewProperty.aspx?listingID=42061
aka http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/326752-coop-65-east-76th-street-upper-east-side-new-york

Sorry, that should be "terraces" - there's one on each side.

bender and newbuyer: I agree with you both, My analysis was off the cuff, without a calculator. But the point was made. However, I am falling prey to the idea that the $1 coop is not that far away. Not this unit but many small <$600k coops with high monthlies. All depends on '09 rental rates, which seem to be falling rapidly. Bender: there are lots of people who quietly did real well in '08 and have high hopes for '09. There is significant sidelined wealth and current earnings power. However, the question is: does this new demand equal existing and potential supply. Answer is, not a chance. Big problem is the sheer number of units that got bid up by WS and NYC excesses. I personally know 3 people that are waiting, willing to pay north of $4mm. They just seem smarter than your average duck and are expecting major discounting to occur.

newbuyer99 and patient09 - i do not think two income families earning $2mm/yr exist anymore - certainly not on wall st and related professions (I mean they exist, but they are by far fewer) - I know the Wall St scene very well and it's not there. Maybe orthopedic surgeons - so yes, a couple of two successful well known orthopedic surgeons make that kind of money. I don't think they're buying the apt on E86st.

Obviously that is annecdotal and P09 - I hear that you say you know people who are willing to pay north of 4mm - just curious - what is their profile - age, profession, and current RE position - be as general as you wish so as not to give their real identities away

West81 - the apt you linked to is kind of what I'm looking for - I could even do with a little less primo location (though PS6 would be very desirable) - hoping to get it for <$1.5mm

bender, will give more details to that question in 6mos time. Suffice to say. Some, 1 in 10, 1 in 20, simply rented for the last 4-6 years for a variety of reasons, Yet had the cash even that long ago, now are picking their spots to enter. In fact, they are more interested in late Spring as an entry time. By no stretch of the imagination am I suggesting that there are enough folks like this to support the market, but there are some. Deals are getting done that are flooring me. ex. 2 apts have traded in 120 e 87 for prices I think are 30% too high. R18LA and 10F. This will prove to be a "normal distribution over time to equilibrium is achieved. Some, those closing now will overpay, some, at the other tail will miss the dip completely. Bigger question is duration of the distribution 2yrs or 10yrs.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/211287-condo-225-east-86th-street-yorkville-new-york

Apologies, just saw that this one was already posted above.

patient, I agree with you about the $1 coop. There are definitely apartments whose maintenance and RE taxes will be as high or higher than rent for the equivalent apartment. I don't think the place at 225 East 86th falls into that category, but there will be others.

"newbuyer99 and patient09 - i do not think two income families earning $2mm/yr exist anymore - certainly not on wall st and related professions (I mean they exist, but they are by far fewer) - I know the Wall St scene very well and it's not there."

I think we're saying the same thing. I would be the last person to say the pool of buyers willing to sign up for $11,500 / month is anywhere near what it was 1-2 years ago. It's way, way down. But it exists. Senior investment bankers at boutiques. Successful hedge fund managers (i.e. the exceptions that did well this year). Senior turnaround/restructuring professionals at either ibanks (Lazard), or consulting-ish firms (Alix partners). Junior partners (because senior partners are spending more) at successful private equity firms who are positioned to weather or profit from the downturn (again the exceptions).

I don't think my wife and I would sign up for quite that much (nor do we make $2MM/year). But I think we'd sign up for $8-10K/month for the right apartment (before factoring in the tax deduction, which would make the effective cost less). Like you, we're watching and waiting.

You asked for some examples, so I tried. With the exception of the specific turnaround pros, each of the other pools is way, way down from what it was 1-2 years ago, and some pools disappeared altogether. I don't think anything above will prevent your dream apartment from falling to $1.5MM. But it may prevent it from falling to $500K.

"Seriously, give me the profile of a guy who is sanguine about signing up for 11.5K / mo for the next 30yrs. I seriously would like to understand"

It's not just about incomes, which are pretty much way down across the board. It's about assets. While many on Wall Street and their spouses spent every dime they earned during the boom year on high living and Hamptons houses, there were some who lived below their income and saved, and are now in a position to live off their assets, regardless of current earnings. But that is a small subset of previous buyers, so prices will keep coming down.

modern - very good point. I should've added "and have been living below their means and saving" in my descriptions. Also an exception.

Another useful piece of reference data: this 3BR at the Alexandria on West 72nd just sold for $2.5MM.
http://www.klaramadlin.com/sale_details.asp?listing_id=4467
The seller was BMW of North America. Ex-pat housing, maybe?