If You Can Demonstrate Market Movement With Comps: Upper West Side Edition

Spinnaker1: I think we all need to stay a little humble when interpreting comps, becuase the results often DON'T speak for themselves. Consider this sequence at 600 West 111th:
--------Recorded Sales-------------|--------Previous Listings----------
CURRENT ..... #4C ......................... |↓ $1,000,000 2 beds
06/25/2009 #14C $1,075,000 -14.0% |↓ $1,250,000 3 beds 2 baths
05/08/2009 #12C ........................... |↓ $1,445,000 Off-Market 3 beds 2 baths
03/31/2008 . #2C $1,440,000 - 3.7% | . $1,495,000 Sold 2 beds 2 baths 1,450 ft²
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/600-west-111-street-manhattan

The footprints are identical. #2C was extensively renovated. The listing for #14C touts "absolute move-in condition". Even #4C has been modernized somewhat, though it looks very dated. From the #2C peak sale to the recent #14C closing, the "C" line is down about 32% on a per-share basis, and about 25% per square foot. The #4C listing suggests a deeper drop, based on price alone. How much value has really been lost here? It's hard to say, because of the differences in condition and elevation.

To take a more extreme example, consider this recent closing at 325 West End Avenue:
--------Recorded Sales-------------|--------Previous Listings----------
06/23/2009 #5A $800,000 ................... |
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/325-west-end-avenue-manhattan

There's no listing, and because it's a coop, the closing documents contain no information about the apartment. The original "A" line at 325 is huge; #5A may have been dismemebered, or the floorplan may simply differ on the fifth floor. One clue to what happened here is the seller, who appears to a principal - or straw man - of a company that has bought and sold a lot of apartments over the years. Perhaps the buyer is a long-term, regulated renter whose landlord finally gave up on outlasting him. Or maybe he's a another straw man. Whatever this sale might be, it isn't a useful comp - unless somebody has more information about the apartment and the situation.

"Stack up all the reasons you can attribute to these increases but to me the results speak for themselves. So what does it tell us? Not all buyers read this thread, for one."

Translation: I have no interest in facts which show mitigating circumstances to data I like.

G'day West81st - You may have guessed the reason I stayed with direct sales history for the same apartments rather than looking at comps is that I anticipated the responses. I figured at the very least I would eliminate the differences in floor and view as an excuse. Hey, I know this thread is your baby and I apologize for not playing by the rules. I'm not trying to do anything more than make the case against the broad brush mentality that suggests everything is down 30% from peak. The lack of granularity in the sales data has always been a sore point. It makes me want to spend a day collecting all the sales for prime UWS, and not just those that show the greatest carnage. I never guessed I would find sales at 7 -9 - 20% ABOVE peak, so my curiosity has been peaked so to speak.

http://www.habitatmag.com/publication_content/habitat_s_purchasing_primer_news_for_new_buyers/renters_rights_in_co_op_and_condo_apartment_buildings/sidebar_when_renters_go_too_far

http://www.natefind.com/sold/325-west-end-ave-manhattan-10023/440 11C sold for $2,100,000.00 6/14/2005. Neither of these two sales OF THE HOLDER OF UNSOILD SHARES FOR THE BUILDING was listed for sale as far as i can see.

"The lack of granularity in the sales data has always been a sore point."

That's awfully interesting that you try to use that as a concept, because when someone (like me) eliminates that lack of granularity by adding the details which are pertinent, you dismiss it out of hand saying "Stack up all the reasons you can attribute to these increases but to me the results speak for themselves."

Is it that you are throwing around big words you don't understand or just talking out of both sides of you mouth?

Surely we can have this conversation without turning it into a pissing contest. The lack of granularity is in the "sales data" numbnuts. How many sales were 0-10% off peak? How many were 40% off peak? How many were 20% above peak? Are prime areas seeing less declines or greater declines?

Interesting discussion. Maybe we should take it to a separate thread on comp methodology.

Spinnaker1: If you're just making the rhetorical point that comps are like statistics, and that one can spin them in any direction, I completely agree. There are lots of dubious "downside" comp sequences on the IYCDMMWC threads too, though I think the majority are valid.

If you're actually contending that the particular resales you posted illustrate upward market movement, I'd say you're on pretty thin ice. Are those really the best you can do among the May-June closings? I know it's going to be news to the seller at 20 West 77th (and her tax accountant) that her investment in #6B paid off.

I would like to get beyond the broad strokes ("the market is 30% down from peak") the averages, median figures et al because sales rarely fit into this mold. Give me a chart for each month showing the number of sales that were 30-40% off peak, 20-30% off peak, 10-20% off peak, 0-10% off peak and so on. Comparing all the monthly results might say more about market movement than picking out the greatest declines.

"Translation: I have no interest in facts which show mitigating circumstances to data I like."

30yrs, great job describing your own reaction, and that of w67 on the previous page, to the heretical suggestion from spinnaker1 that prices might not actually be down 30% on everything, everywhere.

Sidelinesitter - do you translate for the UN?

TrinityParent: Where is your apartment? i'm looking for a West End classic 7

I actually think that spinnaker is making at least a noise worth considering here. My experience in not buying, but bidding for4 apartments on the UWS in the last 18 months certainly has suggested to me that things were never down 30% or 40% from peak, no matter how mnuch I wanted them tot be, or thought they should be. And so I agree that the name calling and resports to insults are perhaps, less than helpful, and might make what could be a useful discussion less so. I also agree with weest81 that perhaps this is a topic worthy of it''s own thread. my .02 of course. worth nothing more than what it costs.

A voice of reason. I agree, we should take this somewhere else and not mess up this thread.

...and my apologies sidelinesitter, you were parroting, REO was mistranslating.

the market does not move in tandem folks. if i say 'the DJIA was down 50% last year' you can't counter by saying 'no it wasn't: walmart was up 10%.' no one with half a brain would try to argue that every single apartment in every single neighborhood at every single price point is down 20% or 30%.

other problems:
1. one of those comps reaches all the way back to a prior sale in 2003 to show an increase. So it is supposed to be bullish that some apartments sell for more than they did in 2003?

2. several of the comps are for flips of conversions/new constructions. this means that while the closing may have taken place in 2007, the contract may have been signed in 2005. so the increase is from a pre-conversion/construction price in 2005, not from a resale in 2007. very different market implications.

moreover, liquidpaper thanks for your comment but it confirms something i hav enoticed: buyers seem to feel the market has not declined if they can't get the exact apartment they want at the exact price they think they should pay for it. that's not how this works.

HR: Welcome back. That's not quite what I said, or what I was trying to say at any rate. While I agree that any 1 apartment isn't representative of the market as a whole, it does seem to me that 4 similarly situated, roughly equivalent apartments (3 br plus b/w 72 & 96th on West side, pre-war doorman buildings etc) - where not only was there no deal, but not even a counter to a -25% ish offer from peak peak does suggest - to me at least - that a broad brush statement like the market is -30% from peak levels is perhaps unhelpful, if the message it sends to prospective buyers is that they'd be fools to buy an apartment for anything more than that.

LP>...."where not only was there no deal, but not even a counter to a -25% ish offer from peak "

Are you saying the apartments didn't trade? Or traded away from you?

If it is the first case, I'd call that simple denial. Plenty of that around. If they did trade away from you, that is another type of thing altogether.

How is that unhelpful if you're a real buyer liquidpaper? Unless you're rushed to buy for some reason (and how many economically valid reasons are there?) you can wait until 2010 or 2011 and see if, in fact, you would have been a fool to buy too early in this burst bubble at 20% below peak or not. Also, walterh7 question is very pertinent: are you talking about a delusional seller or another buyer snatching the apartments from your hands with better offers (if so, please provide links)?

liquidpaper:

there are a lot of questions suggested by your comment. the most important: how sure are you of the peak value of the apartments you bid on? most units do not have a solid comp that coincides with the real peak of the market.

spinnaker - as often seems to happen on on-line boards, the intended sarcasm in my post obviously didn't come through. To be more direct, my point was that the reaction of 30yrs to the data that you posted is exactly what he accuses you of; that is, having opinions that are impervious to mitigating facts. That sounded to me like the pot calling the kettle black.

hr - "no one with half a brain would try to argue that every single apartment in every single neighborhood at every single price point is down 20% or 30%" Or so one would think/hope. However, in recent weeks there have been i) a lot of half brained casual generalizations that start from the premise that the market is down 30%; and ii) denial and rationalization of any data that suggesst otherwise.

161 west 86th #8D (rented for 2 years), 610 WEA #2A (still on mkt), 320 west 86th #8AB(combination apartment, my was offer based on what one of the apartments on another flor TRADED for while they had this on the market - was taken off market w/out selling). Will leave 4th off list for now as is still a possible situation and not looking to get it examined that closely.

Wow sidelinesitter, that one blew right by me. I was feeling like I just stepped on a hornets nest so it failed to register. Apologies AGAIN.

See: "Sales That Seem To Defy Market Trend" for more wacky trend-busting sales numbers.

Back to W81's comps at 111th Street (http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/600-west-111-street-manhattan)--just a note about 4C, a strange bird that seems to be languishing on the market. I saw the apartment late last fall, when it had already been empty for quite some time. It's mysterious that the price has been the same ($1 million) since February. When I visited I found the broker quite strange--she basically hid from us and looked like she thought we might hit her when we asked even the most softball of questions. It could be a nice apartment--it's spacious and the layout seemed workable to me (though too much street noise for my own sensitive ears). It seems to just sit and sit with no price reductions and not even very many open houses. Maybe they were waiting for 14C to close?

EEE1: My apartment is at 97th and West End. Herringbone floors, doorman, roof deck, bike storage, etc etc. And an actual professional kitchen, if you're interested in that sort of thing: six-burner Garland with 2 ovens, griddle, salamander.

LP. so folks, for the most part, didn't like what they heard and didn't sell. To me that says more about them individually than it does about where the market is or is not. Sounds like you did the right thing for yourself. It will take time for price discovery. Today's 'outliers' are tomorrow's good sales.

trinityparents... forget the kitchen..... "the girls, the girls, how much for the girls? "

: )

don't have girls. have two gigantic boys.

never mind, boys are sweaty... NOT THAT THERE'S ANYTHING WRONG WITH THAT :)

600 west 111th #4c -- it is odd indeed. I made an offer above a $1 million when this was priced quite a bit higher and was rejected. Not even a followup, even after they went below my price. Made another offer some time later and not even an acknowledgement. No indication that the original offer was presented to the seller.
The realtor is a sham -- my guess is that he has a friend that he intends to pass this on to after convincing the seller that there is no hope of selling at any price.

"To me that says more about them individually than it does about where the market is or is not"

That's a very interesting statement b/c my very uninformed impression of the market right now is that individual circumstance is the greatest factor determining deal or no deal. Desperate sellers are losing out; those who can afford to hold out are doing so (for what, I'm not sure).

spinnaker - interesting thoughts. I will check out the thread.

HR - "no one with half a brain would try to argue that every single apartment in every single neighborhood at every single price point is down 20% or 30%."

And yet, that is EXACTLY what is done day in and day out here by many of the most vocal individuals.

west 67th very funny

>>And yet, that is EXACTLY what is done day in and day out here by many of the most vocal individuals.

Waverly: I'm not sure I've seen that. Can you point to an example of the kind of statement you are talking about?

100 Riverside Dr. "A" line. River-facing classic six.
--------Recorded Sales-------------|--------Previous Listings----------
07/01/2009 #14A $2,250,000 - 9.8% | . $2,495,000 2 beds 3 baths
03/07/2008 #10A $2,830,000 - 5.5% | . $2,995,000 2 beds 3 baths
03/28/2005 . #9A $2,550,000 + 2.2 |↓ $2,495,000 2 beds 2 baths
10/25/2004 #13A $2,750,000 ........ |
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/100-riverside-drive-manhattan

bravo w81--nice pic--very contrasty--not grainy or granular!!

prime building, high floor classic six with a river view sells for 18% below a 2004 sale price one floor below. i hope no one here thinks that that implies that the market is down!

this is

100 Riverside drive.
We have to assume that we are at a 2002 price???
In co-ops as we mark new lows it would be great to know aprox. where this price stands in relation to time. I'm suprised this place went for so little.

Falcogold: I wouldn't go that far. We don't know much about #13A; it might have had an exceptional renovation, or even an extra room. #14A needed some work, and the fourteenth floor isn't necessarily better than the ninth, which some people consider the ideal elevation on that stretch of RSD.

I'd call it a 2004 price. Stay patient. Someday your prints will come.

west81st: always the voice of reason. i'd say this is at best a 2004 price, but i think it is certainly possible it would have sold at this price in 2002 or 2003.

"prints will come" . . . noted & ouch.

440 West End Avenue #7E. The same unit sales here in 2005, 2006 and 2009 speak for themselves. Direct competition with #10E certainly didn't help.
04/04/2005 Previous Sale recorded for $915,000.
09/06/2006 Previous Sale recorded for $990,000.
02/18/2009 Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $949,000.
03/02/2009 Price decreased by 11% to $849,000.
04/08/2009 Listing entered contract.
06/24/2009 Sale recorded for $800,000.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/385129-coop-440-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york

80 CPW, E line. Apologies if this is a repost, but I don't see it above. 21E sold 17% below peak and 8% below 2006 lower floor comps. The seller started at a below peak ask and got a deal done in fairly short order (relative to a seized-up winter/early spring market) by taking the discount required to get to yes.

06/30/2009 #21E $1,200,000 -11.1% $1,350,000
07/21/2008 #17E $1,445,000 $1,445,000
06/06/2006 #15-E $1,300,000 -1.9% $1,325,000
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/384068-coop-80-central-park-west-lincoln-square-new-york

200 west end avenue 14C just sold for $1.7.

12C sold for $2.1 in early 08.

comps?

if so, down 20% from peak.

Forgive me if this sale was already posted elsewhere, but the much discussed 239 cpw #4C closed for $1.7M. I personally did not care for the apartment, but it's a higher transaction price than i would have expected.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/364312-coop-239-central-park-west-upper-west-side-new-york

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/356081-condo-43-west-61st-street-lincoln-square-new-york
25U: 10/08 listed 2,850,000

7/17/09 http://a836-acris.nyc.gov/Scripts/DocSearch.dll/BBLResult
1,750,000

(thanks W 81 for showing how us to do this.)

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/356081-condo-43-west-61st-street-lincoln-square-new-york
25U: 10/08 listed 2,850,000

7/17/09 http://a836-acris.nyc.gov/Scripts/DocSearch.dll/BBLResult
1,750,000

(thanks W 81 for showing how us to do this.)

So the comp for 25U is what, its own asking price? There is a thread for big price choppers.

340 West 86th #3C. Same-unit resale, down 35%+ in ten months, BUT with Cartus Financial in the middle, the first transaction was likely subsidized to some extent.
--------Recorded Sales-------------|--------Previous Listings----------
07/07/2009 #3C ... $900,000 -14.3% /↓ $1,049,900 Sold 2 beds 2 baths 1,350 ft²
10/24/2008 #3C $1,420,000 + 1.8% /↓ $1,395,000 Sold 2 beds 2 baths

530 west end avenue 2B sold for $3mm.

What are the conclusions from this?

off 25% from 6B 2 years ago?

25% off a 6th floor apartment from two years ago (near the peak of the market) would seem to me NOT to be such a large reduction off peak prices. To me this sale suggests the market is stronger than one might otherwise think. Anyone have any views on this point?

also, anyone have any insight into what sale of 215 w. 88th street 6FG for $3.985 means? without perfect comps it seems negatie to me because 7F sold for $3.145 and there is a G unit listed at $1.895. If 6FG combines the two it is priced at $1000/sf, which seems low for a condo?

anyone know anything on this unit?

EEEE1/30yrs: 530 WEA #6B is a gorgeous apartment. Are you sure #2B sold for $3MM? If so, it qualifies as a counter-trend trade. #2B is very nice, but it doesn't compare to #6B.

Not even messing around here. Hard to imagine there is any equity left in this deal.

155 W 68th, #33F
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/440682-condo-155-west-68th-street-lincoln-square-new-york?email=true

09/12/2007 Previous Sale recorded for $1,600,000.
07/28/2009 Listed in StreetEasy by Residence Resource at $1,195,000.

Just to add to the pain, #25F is also for sale and offered at $1,150,000.

Nasty.

Why is this not updating?

damn walter, that is nasty for sure. how could anyone have paid 1.6 for that apartment? sad.

even with reasonable carrying charges that would not be worth 1.6, but with 2300 per month in carrying costs...please.

I am with happyrenter - the square footage is overstated and I think it's overpriced at the current ask - $1.6MM was completely nuts.

"EEEE1/30yrs: 530 WEA #6B is a gorgeous apartment. Are you sure #2B sold for $3MM? If so, it qualifies as a counter-trend trade. #2B is very nice, but it doesn't compare to #6B."

2 points:

1) Many people found 6B to be distractingly overdone ( and personally I thought the kitchen was designed by someone who wanted to use it for a TV set because the stove end of it was a disaster if you actually wanted to cook).

2) The problem with "good" renovations being compared across time, is that the same group of people doesn't see both. When you've got 2 units on the market at at least around the same time, the same buyer group sees them and the market values them vs each other. but when there is a large time disparity between the units selling, they never compete with each other. So, what you often get is "price for good renovation" of the unit/line, but that once you get to that price, you don't get a big extra premium for doing a better renovation. This is one of the things sponsors learned in the last decade and a half, where they do essentially crap renovations, but put in expensive "finishes" because they realized they would get the same money if they did that, or did a really good renovation.

Sold for $930k, below early 2005 price. Sale listed as unit 8F G, so they didn't match up.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/320355-coop-771-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york

05/24/2005 Previous Sale recorded for $1,011,000.
07/22/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Halstead Property at $1,275,000.
09/09/2008 Price decreased by 4% to $1,225,000.
09/30/2008 Price decreased by 2% to $1,195,000.
11/06/2008 Price decreased by 4% to $1,150,000.
03/09/2009 Price decreased by 13% to $999,999.
05/06/2009 Listing entered contract.
07/27/2009 Listing sold.

Is this the appropriate thread for new construction? Looks like The Harrison, West 76Th St. just dropped the price on a 2bd by 25%. Is this right? If so, this must establish a base for the buyers who couldn't get out of their contracts and will have to sell.

6/25/2009 #5B $1,525,000 -25.2% $2,040,000 ↑ Sold 2 beds 2 baths 1,065 ft²

This is one of the brand new renovations at Avonova. Don't know the final price but the rumor was a 25% cut. Have to wait for the print to find out.
01/10/2008
Previously Listed in StreetEasy by Avonova Sales Office at $1,750,000.
06/26/2008
Previous Sale recorded for $1,750,000.
07/24/2008
Avonova Sales Office Listing sold.
02/19/2009
Listed in StreetEasy by Halstead Property at $1,575,000.
03/09/2009
Price decreased by 3% to $1,535,000.
04/14/2009
Price decreased by 2% to $1,499,000.
06/03/2009
Price decreased by 7% to $1,399,000.
07/21/2009
Listing entered contract.

#5B at the Harrison looks like it went to contract when the offering price was $1.525m.

It seems Related didn't put it into their system and then the Street Easy system until an amendment had raised the apartment price to $1.74m

That $2.04m price would be an even later amendment.

The Harrison Schedule A price for apartment #5B is indeed $1.525m. The buyer bought early, before any price amendments were filed and the 25% off ask you are seeing doesn't reflect anything but the Sponsor's last price on the latest amendment.

The buyer still paid $1,400 per foot. Not cheap but not discounted. That 25% off would be a false calculation considering the circumstances. It's really 0%. Changing the price after contract shouldn't be reflected.

It's 0% off the ask when contract was signed.

Thanks for clearing that up. It did seem an anomaly. I am curious to see what resale prices will be.

oldwest, that raises an interesting point, though. when prices were ever increasing it was easy for sponsors to increase prices as units sold. now essentially, when the units go to closing in a condensed period of time, they will be essentially comps against each other in terms of future resale and room for negotiation. was always the case, but now the ramifications seem far greater for the later contract signers.

AR: In theory, yes. But turn-over is probably fairly light. While on average someone may own their home for x years and we do tend to see clumping like 3 units of the same line on all sale at the same time, if we looked deeper even at those clumps we see a fairly wide range of dates and purchase prices.

If someone paid $1.74m for 6B at The Harrison, for example, because they went into contract on a later amendment, will that delta really matter all that much by the time they end up selling? 6B may end up holding for 14 years while 5B flips out in 4 years (average hold time 9 years).

My feeling is that since Harrison purchasers had to put another 10% down in the midst of the housing drop, they are most likely longer term holders. You may have been speaking generally...

From what I'm hearing, the Harrison is appraising out close to last ask. Whether that will hold in a resale market is TBD but I don't think we'll see a lot of Harrison inventory on the market in the next 12 months. Further out than that? Who knows. Related seems to be holding prices fairly firm on remaining inventory

250 West 94th "H" line. Big classic six with flexible layout, previously discussed at length. High floors have open views over Pomander Walk. #10H closed two weeks ago for $1.435MM.
--------Recorded Sales-------------|--------Previous Listings----------
07/16/2009 #10H $1,435,000 - 4.0% |↓ $1,495,000 Sold 3 beds 2.5 baths 1,850 ft²
07/21/2008 # 4H $1,870,000 - 1.3% | . $1,895,000 Sold 2 beds 2 baths 1,900 ft²
02/13/2007 # 7H $1,790,000 - 0.6% |↓ $1,800,000 2 beds 3 baths 1,800 ft²
08/03/2006 #15H $2,251,000 + 0.0% | . $2,250,000 Sold 2 beds 2 baths 1,900 ft²
05/02/2005 # 3H $1,800,000 - 2.4% | . $1,845,000 2 beds 2 baths
The stunning thing here is that #4H was a complete wreck. #10H needed work in the kitchen wing; otherwise, the apartment was in good shape, though the space could be used better with a different layout. 250 W94th is a nice building with good amenities and very reasonable maintenance. Location isn't prime, but it's super-convenient for anyone who works downtown. Maybe part of the problem here is that fewer people work downtown these days.

15 West 81st #6/7C sold on July 20th for $3.5MM. That qualifies it as a price-chopping, market-moving, lowball-accepting estate nightmare for Museum-view sellers.

07/16/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $6,950,000.
09/14/2008 Price decreased by 7% to $6,495,000.
01/30/2009 Price decreased by 11% to $5,750,000.
03/02/2009 Price decreased by 14% to $4,950,000.
03/16/2009 Price decreased by 9% to $4,500,000.
03/30/2009 Listing entered contract.
07/20/2009 Sale closed for $3,500,000.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/319846-coop-15-west-81st-street-upper-west-side-new-york
http://a836-acris.nyc.gov/Scripts/DocSearch.dll/Detail?Doc_ID=2009072300395001

Condition was terrible, but the price is still stunning for a 3000SF duplex eight facing the AMNH, on a high enough floor to see over the Planetarium.

Wow, great deal. I remember classic 7s (Pashby sold her own) selling for close to 5m, same side of the bldg.

It's a tough board, though. Estate apts + tough boards = low prices.

That has to be one of the most staggering results I have seen since the bust started. A estate, duplex eight, overlloking AMNH at 15 w 81 for $3.5. Now thats a deal!

Loving the space and location of 15 West 81st. Not sure I have the patience and deep pockets for a renovation with a snooty board. I agree, that probably pushed the price down.....but that could be my forever apartment. Sigh.

I think w67thstreet called this one last year. Apparently, quality is not a refuge from this market.

1965 Broadway (Grand Millennium) #11H. 2BR/2.5BA 1,577SF. 20% below same-unit sale in early 2007.
04/30/2007 Previous Sale recorded for $2,100,000.
06/19/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Edward Lee Cave at $2,450,000.
09/23/2008 Price decreased by 6% to $2,300,000.
01/14/2009 Price decreased by 9% to $2,090,000.
04/21/2009 Price decreased by 10% to $1,875,000.
05/07/2009 Also listed in StreetEasy by Brown Harris Stevens at $1,875,000.
06/02/2009 Listing entered contract.
07/21/2009 Listing sold.
07/21/2009 Sale recorded for $1,675,000.

For an ordinary civilian who put 20% down, this would be a total equity wipeout (and then some). In this case, there's no evidence of a mortgage, although the LLC may have been leveraged another way.

west81st, do you know more or less how much would the transaction costs for this owner be? (both when he bought and now when he sells)

Admin: I'll try to answer, though I have to make some assumptions that might be wrong.

With no mortgage (and therefore no points or mortgage recording tax), the biggest item on the purchase was probably the mansion tax of $21,000. That's assuming the seller covered the transfer taxes of $38K. Legal fees, title costs and such are relatively minor expenses.

The sale probably threw off a commission of about $100K and transfer taxes of $30K or so.

thanks west81st!

"the seller covered the transfer taxes "

is that common practice? wow, so it's more expensive to get out than to get in ($130k versus $21k). seems that's the case in the rest of the country (there's no mansion tax i guess and transfer taxes might be different). wonder whether homebuyers do take this exit transaction cost fully into account before entering the mkt. has to be a big factor impairing mobility when they are barely over water or slightly under water.

those 2 cost together in this case (if assumptions are correct) are $150k. monthly carrying costs of $2.6k (maintenance plus property taxes) add up to $68k (for the 26 months) for a total of $220k. that would have been more than enough to rent a similar one for at least 3 years.

then there's the $425k of lost equity... wow, renting sucks anyway, but owning sometimes sucks even more!!!

RE only goes UP! Goddamit... now go buy some equities!

"RE only goes UP! Goddamit... now go buy some equities!"

why the hurry? soon enough we will be able to buy equities and homes from starving baby boomers for bananas. in gold we trust meanwhile?

"...$220k. that would have been more than enough to rent a similar one for at least 3 years."

I wouldn't go quite that far. If you want to work the rent-buy math, the peak monthly rent on a unit like this was in the mid-high 8s. It's a very popular building. I'm not saying $2.1MM was a good investment, but there were worse places to put your money in 2007, even with those high exit costs.

"there were worse places to put your money in 2007, even with those high exit costs."

very true!

Corroborating the steep loss noted above at the Grand Millennium, there's similar damage at its enormousl popular sibling: 16% in a year in this case.

111 West 67th (Park Millennium) #37C. 2BR 2BA 1,050 ft².
06/12/2008 Previous sale recorded for $1,850,000.
11/25/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Brown Harris Stevens at $1,975,000.
01/28/2009 Price decreased by 4% to $1,890,000.
02/23/2009 Price decreased by 3% to $1,840,000.
03/11/2009 Price decreased by 3% to $1,790,000.
04/06/2009 Price decreased by 6% to $1,680,000.
05/19/2009 Listing entered contract.
07/21/2009 Sale recorded for $1,550,000.

bump13... I've lost count...

see shrimpie.. .1965 broadway.. I called it at $1000psf, 10 months ago... I saved $1MM this year... howz the RE borker thing going? Sorry, West81... your'e cool w/ me....

So net net... this last year, my net worth went up $2MM.... howz' your finances shrimpie?

115 Central Park West (Majestic) #4E

05/17/2007 Previous Sale recorded for $5,400,000.
04/10/2009 Listed in StreetEasy by Prudential Elliman at $4,500,000.
04/21/2009 Listing entered contract.
07/02/2009 Sale recorded for $4,100,000.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/404013-coop-115-central-park-west-lincoln-square-new-york

what was the real upshot on 28d...cannot find any reference on acris.

CC: No filing yet on #28D. But I'm sure t was a sick deal.

Elsewhere on the Upper West Side, does it qualify as a "green shoot" when a Nobel-winning economist and liberal icon buys?
http://a836-acris.nyc.gov/Scripts/DocSearch.dll/Detail?Doc_ID=2009072101534001

He has good taste. Happyrenter and I both liked that one. Here's the listing:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/211311-coop-110-riverside-drive-upper-west-side-new-york

how can you not love that building?

CC: Love the 110, especially the 118 side. But since we don't know what Kr*gm*n paid yet, this discussion probably belongs elsewhere. Back to comps.

50 West 96th Street #4C: Same unit resale of 2BR/1+BA coop, 13% below late 2005 basis.
12/13/2005 Previous Sale recorded for $845,000.
06/16/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $1,049,000.
09/17/2008 Price decreased by 5% to $999,000.
11/11/2008 Price decreased by 10% to $899,000.
02/18/2009 Price decreased by 11% to $799,000.
04/29/2009 Price decreased by 6% to $749,000.
05/17/2009 Listing entered contract.
07/15/2009 Sale recorded for $730,000.
Judging from the two listings, the recent sellers appear to have done a fair amount of work; it's hard to be sure. The location of the second toilet certainly didn't help this one. On the other hand, I doubt it has moved since 2005.

6C, probably better condition, sold mid-2008 for $2.04mm. Very reasonable maintenance.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/375618-coop-425-east-58th-street-sutton-place-new-york

09/22/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Prudential Elliman at $1,795,000.
11/22/2008 Price decreased by 11% to $1,595,000.
03/10/2009 Delisted temporarily.
04/22/2009 Re-listed by Prudential Elliman.
04/22/2009 Price decreased by 13% to $1,395,000.
08/04/2009 Listing sold.
08/04/2009 Sale recorded for $1,375,000.

ar - fyi, looks like a mix-up in posting the link above...

E line at 110RSD: completely interior apt, but the architects really made the most of the space. This is one of my favorite Classic 6 layouts.

sidelinesitter, thanks.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/350872-coop-250-west-94th-street-upper-west-side-new-york

ar, a couple of things:
1) Very dramatic move. The 6C folks must be really unhappy
2) Give the express "estate condition" of 15C, the price of 10C is a further step down, I think. I would expect the value difference between estate condition and no apparent condition issues to be greater than the value difference of 5 floors of elevation. In other words, I would expect the non-estate, lower floor unit to trade at a higher price, but it actually went a bit lower, so arguably the 10C buyer gave up the 5 floors but got better condition almost free
3) This will become more interesting still when 8C closes (in contract a few weeks behind 10C). Listing admits to kitchen and bathroom issues, but not full estate condition, which if representative of reality puts condition in between 10C and 15C. Last ask is 6% below 10C close and 7% below 15C, so the discount to last ask will really tell the story on relative value

re: 250 East 94th C line, it turns out it was covered under price choppers. Much more informed perspective from NextEra near the bottom of this thread:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/5465-chasing-the-market-down-our-favorite-price-choppers-?page=9

sorry WEST 94th

"50 West 96th Street #4C: Same unit resale of 2BR/1+BA coop, 13% below late 2005 basis. "

Another instance of a building which was formerly a "problem to sell in". I remember when it was tough to sell those back 2 Br's at $125k to $150K. Again, more fodder for my "will polished turds fall faster?" question.

303 West 66th (Lincoln Guild), "J" line East.
-------- Recorded Sales -------- | ---------- Previous Listings ----------
* ACTIVE * #14JE ...................... |↓ $795,000 2 beds 1 bath
07/29/2009 #18JE $700,000 -6.7% |↓ $750,000 2 beds 1 bath
03/03/2008 #17JE $867,000 +8.5% | . $799,000 2 beds 1 bath
10/11/2007 #15JE $910,000 -2.0% | . $929,000 2 beds 1 bath

#15JE was nicely renovated. There doesn't appear to have been anything special about #17JE except timing.

i don't have an exact comp for this, but it certainly demonstrates market movement. a large classic 6 with 3 real bathrooms between 85th and 86th. there must be some story behind this and it was probably a wreck, but still, it's a c6 in a great area under 1 mil.

522 West End Avenue #6A

04/24/2009 #6A $950,000

very exciting

Apologies if this has been discussed in this thread (or elsewhere) before:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/380544-condo-386-columbus-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york

Asking $1.395, and in contract (anyone's guess for what). 6A closed for $1.725MM a year ago. 15A (obviously a much higher floor) sold for $1.995MM in 2007. So 7A's most recent ask is almost 20% below 6A and 30% below 15A. Will become a better comp when it closes and we see for what.

Anyone that knows the buildings or these transactions can fill in any holes or correct me.

Saw 7A with a friend who was looking. Building is OK. Location is great. Did not see 15A or 6A but I'm guessing 7A condition was a chunk of the difference. Market is the duh too but was pretty original condition. Looking at picture of 7A in old listing info, not original floors so at least some work was done.

I'd guess it went for $1.295m and needs $250k worth of work.

I'm trying to remember if the windows were new or not. An easy $25k there. Can't recall. She wasn't a fan of the floorplan and liked the B duplex better.

This comment does not belong here.........but, I'm unfamiliar with this buiding (7A mentioned above) . These prices seem high, is the view that prized? Is it that good a location. I'm not passing judgement, the pricing for this unit caught me off guard. Any comments?
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/380544-condo-386-columbus-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york