Good opportunities in 2008

petrfitz, I agree, brownstones are definitely better investments than Pitt Street.

hmm bjw - you learn nothing. manhattan property that just had their bubildable FAR doubled is a great investment. a shitty glass condo built on a toxic waste dump is not. why do you even bother to open your mouth?

also how do you think that I am now able to buy brownstones in cash? from my real estate investments that you criticize. Are you able to buy prime brooklyn brownstones based on your investments? please answer.

Hey, if you can pay all cash, that's great - should be able to negotiate a pretty nice discount on the right place. I see you still don't get how the whole buildable FAR thing is not what you think it is, but that's ok. Good luck buddy.

wait, i'm a little confused petrfitz. these are a good investment going forward because they did well last year? i am sure that in any market there some opportunities, and perhaps brooklyn brownstones will be among them right now. but we certainly have no reason to assume they will be simply because prices held up pretty well last year.

i think brownstone brooklyn has a lot to recommend it. but i do fear that falling prices in manhattan could draw some of the potential buyers in brooklyn back to manhattan. if that happens, prices could take a tumble.

Honestly, I believe the opportunities for 2009 will get better as this is the first Wall Street bonus season that has impacted New York City. If everyone remembers, bonus season on Wall Street was very strong last year and now we are all realizing that 60% or higher of those Wall Street numbers were fake. So, real estate prices in New York have to come down dramatically as they went up based on fake numbers. If you look at history, i.e., the fall of Drexel Burnham Lambert and look at the correlation of real estate prices with Wall Street then New York City is in for a big downturn. Bonuses for Wall Street next year are not going to be any better and should be worse. Again, you might not want to admit it, but Wall Street bonuses drive New York City real estate.

"wait, i'm a little confused petrfitz. these are a good investment going forward because they did well last year?"

Yes, classic perfitz mistake. He also told everyone to buy tech in 2000.

BJW - please explain why having a property where your buildable FAR gets doubled is not a good thing? Especially when it is on a manhattan property and the city throws in a bunch of developer incentives. i am really intersted in your thoughts on how the value is not increased.

Also you stated that you bought your condo to live in and not as an investment. So have you ever made an investment in real estate?

rharris, to the "fake" let's add the absurdly low US dollar which was also a victim of hedge fund speculative ball busting. This goes from the Rubble, Aussie & Can dollars, Sterling, Euro, Brazilian and everything in between exclusive of the Yen.

The artificially bruised & battered USD sure made it tough for us Americans to compete with foreign currency holders. Glad that's over. :)

nyc10022 - i sold my second tech company in 2001. Next....

serge07. Agreed.

petrfitz...i liked you better when you were sprouting your pro Obama message.

nyc10022 - so you are saying that no one made money in tech in 2000? Hmm tell that to Gates, Ellison, Brin, etc. Would you have advised them to dump all their tech holdings in 2000?

julia - what is wrong with pointing out that there were money making opportunities in 2008 in real estate and there are also many in 2009?

Is that a bad thing or are these boards only for those who post that there is absolutely no opportunity at all in real estate?

>Is that a bad thing or are these boards only for those who post that there is absolutely no opportunity at all in real estate?<

petrfitz, you're going to hate this but I agree with you. My brother is partner of a commercial RE company as is a cousin and they are finding deals on the West coast for 20-30 cents on the dollar & cash flow positive. Now, if you're talking about some over priced pocket of Manhattan air space, I can't even begin to describe my negativity on that sector.

I think there's opportunity, and there will be a lot more for less money along the way. Where's the fire?

"BJW - please explain why having a property where your buildable FAR gets doubled is not a good thing? Especially when it is on a manhattan property and the city throws in a bunch of developer incentives. i am really intersted in your thoughts on how the value is not increased.

Also you stated that you bought your condo to live in and not as an investment. So have you ever made an investment in real estate?"

petrfitz, we've gone over this a few times and you still haven't come up with good answers.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/6228-ev-les-rezoning-official

Specifically, you never answered me about how you were privy to the zoning information before anyone else (and therefore before it was ever really "priced in"), you never demonstrated that people were "jumping at the opportunity" (I counted a total of ONE closed sale on Pitt in the past year), and you claimed that basically "3 people" own all the properties on the rezoned blocks, and that you're one of them.

As for me, I have invested in real estate, yes. Not new construction either.

BJW - 1 - i looked at the post and did not see where you explained how a doubling of buildable space does not add value to a property. Please cut and paste it in this thread for me. It must be a brilliant theory.

2 - how was the pricing not built in? Because I owned the proprerty before the rezoning initiated. how did I know about the rezoning before others? It pays to be active in neighborhood organizations like the community board. It also doesnt hurt to sit on boards where you are privy to info or asked for your input on upcoming initiatives.

3 - 3 people do own basically the entire block of Pitt that was rezoned. The 3 owners have a contigious 6 properties out of the 9 total. the remaining 3 properties have 3 separate owners. You can figure out why there have been no recent sales from the above info - bulk sale?

4 - please tell us what investments you have made besides your williamsburg condo. Either reveal your investments or we will consider your only investment the shitty glass condo you live in.

BJW - still waiting on your explanation on how adding buildable FAR does not add value to a property.

Please we are facinated.

wait lookat what I found on the thread:

"bjw2103
about 8 weeks ago

I'm not really an investor"

So what is it BJW??? Are you or arent you an investor? Were you an investor before you were not an investor? Why are you contradicting yourself?

1. petrfitz, I never claimed it didn't add value. You said your money "doubled overnight." That's the part I find laughable. You have yet to demonstrate that.

2. That's great if you owned the property before any of this happened. But a) you have pushed these areas as good investments, and for anyone buying now, it's a tremendous (and based on a reasonable analysis, most likely losing) gamble, and b) none of your theories are borne out until we see sales that reflect "overnight doubling." As of now, there aren't any.

3. What? Bulk sales? Sales are reported, no matter what.

4. You can't help yourself with the insults can you? It really damages your cred. Once again, I bought a (non-glass) apartment to live in, not as an investment. I have invested in real estate - I still own another condo that generates pretty good rental income, but I've had it for a while now and the mortgage has been paid off for some time. Also, who is this "we" you mention? Only you seem to want to know these things.

No, pertrfitz, I do not consider myself to be a major investor in real estate. For my purposes, that would have to be an individual's primary (or at least top 3) source of income.

So BJW - your "investment" in real estate consists of 2 condos? Where is that condo located?

Also how does owning 2 condo's give you insight into buying and selling buildings or the development of entire blocks?

you are a moron - you are arguing that the rezoning does add value to a property, but at the same time you are saying that it doesnt double the value. So please explain? the buildable FAR has more than doubled on these lots. The city has granted tax exemptions which lower the carrying costs of the fully burdened property, and offered incentives to build. I am interested in your theories as to the value of the property.

petrfitz,

you might want to consider your examples of brilliant tech investments since 2000 a wee bit more carefully. if larry ellison had sold his oracle stock in 2000, he could have garnered over $40 a share; today it trades at $16. if bill gates had sold in 2000, (and in fact he did sell some in 2000) he could have gotten over $50 a share; now microsoft trades under $19. google, of course, did not exist as a public company in 2000 so that example sort of moot.

while it is certainly possible to have made money in tech stocks that one owned and held from 2000, it would have been extraordinarily difficult. virtually any name brand tech company that existed in 2000 traded substantially higher (often double, triple ten times) then than it does now: yahoo, even ebay (which peaked later), intel, ibm, cisco. that's the nature of a bubble. even good companies (like good apartments) can sell for prices they won't fetch again for years, decades, or ever. the major counter-example is apple, of course, which has performed wonderfully since 2000 as a stock and a company. but the examples you gave certainly do nothing to bolster your argument.

petrfitz, yes that's correct. I don't think it's relevant where the property is located. That alone doesn't give me insight, but I've learned enough on my own and from my family (which has long invested in RE) that I feel pretty good about my assessment of what you claim on Pitt St.

And again with the insults! Keep it in your pants. Yes, it's perfectly possible for something to add value and not double it at the same time. That's pretty basic. The value of your property is what you can sell it for. Again, I have seen NO sales that indicate a doubling of value, and I see NOTHING in the neighborhood that will really drive people there.

Actually, its funny... Pertfitz claim was that MANHATTAN RE would be up 15% in 2008.

And he's putting out an article that parts of Brooklyn haven't fallen AS MUCH.

Wow, grasping at straws...

actually i claimed that there were certain buys that were going to be up. I said some opportunities in manhattan and brooklyn brownstones. I posted data ealier today to show i was correct.

NYC10022 - please post any data that proves your position that there was no money made on any property in New York City.

BJW - you are such a simpleton. Its actually fun playing with you. Like a cat playing with a mouse.

hmm another lie from NYC10022 the article pointed to a 12% increase.

Ok, petrfitz, if that's the best you've got (yet again!). It's been fun, as always.