...the news is so great. Let me just recap: -Bank of England cuts rates to the LOWEST they've been in, oh, it's entire 315 year history -US Fed rates are at the lowest in a half a century -WaMu is the largest bank failure in history. Due to Uncle Sam's help, it turns out to be a "merger." -Lehman Brothers is the largest bankruptcy in history and failed after, what, 151 years? -Two of the Big 3 beg... [more]
...the news is so great. Let me just recap:
-Bank of England cuts rates to the LOWEST they've been in, oh, it's entire 315 year history
-US Fed rates are at the lowest in a half a century
-WaMu is the largest bank failure in history. Due to Uncle Sam's help, it turns out to be a "merger."
-Lehman Brothers is the largest bankruptcy in history and failed after, what, 151 years?
-Two of the Big 3 beg for money from the government. Ford actually headed this off last year (maybe 07?) by leveraging just about all of its manufacturing plants and equipment in a $15 billion bond sale
-C is worth nothing and getting cannibalized
-Unemployment is at a 26 year high and, even at that, it is the government's "Puppies and Sunshine" employment numbers that don't count part time, underemployed, or people that have just flat given up
http://www.mint.com/blog/finance-core/a-visual-guide-to-the-financial-crisis-unemployment-rates/
-Dividends are slashed like Jack the Ripper is in town
-Home prices can't stop filling headlines with the largest declines on record
-The market in 2008 dumped the worst it had since the Great Depression
-Most other industrialized countries have enacted their own stimulus plans
Am I missing anything?
I know I'm one of the vocal Negative Nates on here, so I'm obviously picking up on these negative things quite a bit. But, it's extremely hard for me to look beyond these things. Is it really that irrational to think that we are in serious, serious trouble here? Not just us, but most of the world...
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Response by hejiranyc
about 17 years ago
Posts: 255
Member since: Jan 2009
We have reached a bottom. Now is an excellent time to buy. New York will be saved by foreign investors. Interest rates are at historic lows. TARP will save Manhattan real estate.
There- I've already stated all of the expected broker bullsh*t. Did I miss anything?
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Response by nyc10028
about 17 years ago
Posts: 93
Member since: Jan 2009
no, fair enough. but think about what caused this.. lehman's collapse was due to the bank's inability to access short term financing - i think the interdependence of every single bank in the world is made clearly obvious here. we have NEVER had this much of a globalized economy. when trust fails, everything collapses. its not like all of a sudden lehman became a crappy institution? i am curious to see what happens when trust returns.. i believe banks will start lending and creating new financing techniques etc.. no one will let any major economy collapse nowadays, because too much is at stake. just don't know how long it will take until this plays out?
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Response by Patrick_Bateman
about 17 years ago
Posts: 57
Member since: Aug 2008
No, you're not. The U.S. government is quietly building personnel "holding tanks" in anticipation of widespread rioting during the later half of 2009. As unemployment escalates, and desperation sweeps the nation, disadvantaged people of color will inevitably lash out.
What's more, normally docile economists who have seen the writing on the wall are now stockpiling canned goods and familiarizing themselves with the full auto feature of the HK G41. I expect them to begin moving upstate as early as 2Q09.
nyc10028, lending to whom? I read today that 15-25% of BofA, Citi and Chase's income has been derived from credit card lending. Banks are choking off lines of credit like mad, and to the extent that the credit is still outstanding, defaults are rapidly rising and other people are paying down balances to avoid usorious interest rates.
At the end of this cluster, who will be deemed credit worthy? The US Government, Dubai, middlle-class Americans, wealthy Americans (prime borrowers are defaulting at unprecedented levels), GM, GE, Citi, and the list goes on... Eventually memories dull, and the beat goes on, but tell that to the Japanese.
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Response by aboutready
about 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
Yeah, but InvestorMan they may be suspending mark-to-market, buying up some toxic assets at below market, and guaranteeing a bunch of other crap on the banks books. And the market is loving it.
Patrick_Bateman, drugs, and serious ones, are indicated.
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Response by nyc10022
about 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
Buy now or be priced out forever!
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Response by matt
about 17 years ago
Posts: 8
Member since: Dec 2008
There will be a bottom, as there always is. You will miss it, as people who focus on the negative always do. Predicting exact prices and times is folly. Seeking opportunity is work. You choose.
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Response by aboutready
about 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
matt, this bottom may be difficult to miss.
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Response by notadmin
about 17 years ago
Posts: 3835
Member since: Jul 2008
think about zimbabwe and argentina when you hear "this has to improve cause it cannot get worse". it can always get worse.
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Response by nyc10022
about 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
"There will be a bottom, as there always is. You will miss it, as people who focus on the negative always do. Predicting exact prices and times is folly. Seeking opportunity is work. You choose."
Yes, the people who denied there would ever be a decline are suddenly the experts on calling the bottom!
BTW, last time took 4 years to bottom.... so telling folks 3 months in they're going to "miss it" is kinda stupid. And you don't have to time it perfectly.... just waiting until it stops dropping like a rock will serve you well.
To me sounds like someone is just bitter about folks getting better deals...
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Response by falcogold1
about 17 years ago
Posts: 4159
Member since: Sep 2008
Theres a bottom...I standing there right now. Ooh...look at me at at the bottom. Let me look around. Nope, the RE market isn't here yet. Hey, what's this? Why it's all of Bush's best ideas!!! Look everybody, plenty of pillows to bite on.
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Response by McHale
about 17 years ago
Posts: 399
Member since: Oct 2008
Sorry, but that's drivel. In fact, what we are living through is the worst financial scandal in history. It dwarfs 1929, Ponzi's scheme, Teapot Dome, the South Sea Bubble, tulip bulbs, you name it. Bernie Madoff? He's peanuts.
Credit derivatives%u2014those securities that few have ever seen%u2014are one reason why this crisis is so different from 1929.
We have reached a bottom. Now is an excellent time to buy. New York will be saved by foreign investors. Interest rates are at historic lows. TARP will save Manhattan real estate.
There- I've already stated all of the expected broker bullsh*t. Did I miss anything?
no, fair enough. but think about what caused this.. lehman's collapse was due to the bank's inability to access short term financing - i think the interdependence of every single bank in the world is made clearly obvious here. we have NEVER had this much of a globalized economy. when trust fails, everything collapses. its not like all of a sudden lehman became a crappy institution? i am curious to see what happens when trust returns.. i believe banks will start lending and creating new financing techniques etc.. no one will let any major economy collapse nowadays, because too much is at stake. just don't know how long it will take until this plays out?
No, you're not. The U.S. government is quietly building personnel "holding tanks" in anticipation of widespread rioting during the later half of 2009. As unemployment escalates, and desperation sweeps the nation, disadvantaged people of color will inevitably lash out.
http://www.prisonplanet.com/greece-style-riots-coming-to-us.html
What's more, normally docile economists who have seen the writing on the wall are now stockpiling canned goods and familiarizing themselves with the full auto feature of the HK G41. I expect them to begin moving upstate as early as 2Q09.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:HK_G41_pic2.jpg
nyc10028, lending to whom? I read today that 15-25% of BofA, Citi and Chase's income has been derived from credit card lending. Banks are choking off lines of credit like mad, and to the extent that the credit is still outstanding, defaults are rapidly rising and other people are paying down balances to avoid usorious interest rates.
At the end of this cluster, who will be deemed credit worthy? The US Government, Dubai, middlle-class Americans, wealthy Americans (prime borrowers are defaulting at unprecedented levels), GM, GE, Citi, and the list goes on... Eventually memories dull, and the beat goes on, but tell that to the Japanese.
Yeah, but InvestorMan they may be suspending mark-to-market, buying up some toxic assets at below market, and guaranteeing a bunch of other crap on the banks books. And the market is loving it.
Patrick_Bateman, drugs, and serious ones, are indicated.
Buy now or be priced out forever!
There will be a bottom, as there always is. You will miss it, as people who focus on the negative always do. Predicting exact prices and times is folly. Seeking opportunity is work. You choose.
matt, this bottom may be difficult to miss.
think about zimbabwe and argentina when you hear "this has to improve cause it cannot get worse". it can always get worse.
"There will be a bottom, as there always is. You will miss it, as people who focus on the negative always do. Predicting exact prices and times is folly. Seeking opportunity is work. You choose."
Yes, the people who denied there would ever be a decline are suddenly the experts on calling the bottom!
BTW, last time took 4 years to bottom.... so telling folks 3 months in they're going to "miss it" is kinda stupid. And you don't have to time it perfectly.... just waiting until it stops dropping like a rock will serve you well.
To me sounds like someone is just bitter about folks getting better deals...
Theres a bottom...I standing there right now. Ooh...look at me at at the bottom. Let me look around. Nope, the RE market isn't here yet. Hey, what's this? Why it's all of Bush's best ideas!!! Look everybody, plenty of pillows to bite on.
Sorry, but that's drivel. In fact, what we are living through is the worst financial scandal in history. It dwarfs 1929, Ponzi's scheme, Teapot Dome, the South Sea Bubble, tulip bulbs, you name it. Bernie Madoff? He's peanuts.
Credit derivatives%u2014those securities that few have ever seen%u2014are one reason why this crisis is so different from 1929.
This is only the beginning of this meltdown
http://www.villagevoice.com/2009-01-28/news/what-cooked-the-world-s-economy/
"matt, this bottom may be difficult to miss"
a good laugh!
"bottom may be difficult to miss"? Sounds like an invitation to catch a falling knife to me.
citi, I meant don't worry, you'll recognize the bottom because it will be around for a good, long time. No invitation implied.
You know, I remember folks saying "you will miss the bottom" as insults when prices were still going UP too.
The rationalizations haven't changed...