Dow Below 6,500! Y ou laughed when I said it!

congrats steve

I'm not happy about it, to be sure.

I never laughed. I took notes.

I don't know if this is a good trade-off. The NY real estate may go down enough to the level you can afford last year, but your funds have also been depleted (401K, stocks, etc) since then. What you can afford last year, you may not be able to afford today.

You are right, cleanslate. There is a huge, multiyear rebuilding effort in front of us all. Or at least most of us, me included.

On anotrher note, a quick question. Does anyone know where I can find out the market rates per aquare foot for leasing office space in different NYC neghdorhoods for 2007, 2008 and current?

Steve, sorry for hi-jacking your thread momentarily.

Ignore typos...sorry.

Who cares?

The Dow could be at 3,000 and I'd still be wealthy.

G-d bless, BRABUS!

Uk, ok...

"Nor did I say that we would go to 6,500 on the Dow."
- Steve 3 months ago.

And then after that....

"Stock indices rise to Dow 11,000 as the effects of the write-downs wear off, and all the new liquidity added into the economy takes hold."

I didn't laugh then, I'm laughing NOW...

stevejhx, You really strike me as a very unpleasant person. Look, this is not all about real estate. There are people behind it suffering all over this country. So stop with your Schadenfreude.

Quoting me out of context again, nyc10022?

Here is what I said:

What I said was, in the process of a panic: "However, there is nothing to stop the stock market from panicking its way all the way to the bottom." And I meant it. "Nor did I say that we would go to 6,500 on the Dow." And I didn't. I said that that's the direction we were headed. Just because we haven't got there yet doesn't mean we won't get there, nyc. That is your mistake. There are still very good technical reasons why we could reach that bottom. The game is not over. You laughed when I said Dow 8,000, as well. Oh well.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/6284-approaching-10000-manhattan-listings

Don't know how much plainer I can be: "Just because we haven't got there yet doesn't mean we won't get there, nyc. That is your mistake. There are still very good technical reasons why we could reach that bottom."

And the 11,000 quote was for the end of 2009, though now, as I said, I'm doubting it.

You're a silly billy!

uppereast, who said I wasn't suffering, too? I happen to have lost a lot of money along with everyone else.

There is an entire thread pointing out how Steve actually called UP right before things went down, and down right before they went up.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/8938-who-laughed-when-i-said

Everybody else caught his lies... amazing how he thinks he did anything but call things completely wrong.

"quit lying about your predictions steve. We can easily go back and look up what you really said so lying is a stupid thing to do here."

"Anyway, Steven, I think you may want to re-read your positions before you keep saying you were right, and frankly, there's nothing wrong with being wrong, just trying to say otherwise. "

"steve is so full of crap. In September, when I said that the dow was likely to go to 6500 he immediately came on the board and started babbling about how unlikely that was; he insulted nouriel roubini and said he didn't know what he was talking about (wrong again Steve)...In October when the market blew up and he got depressed about all the money he lost he started rattling about the market falling to depths as low as 5000...then the december rally came and he backed off again"

"Steve, you are trying to have it both ways. Please stop it. It's annoying"

(responses from 4 separate people, none me)

oh, and how can I forget... Steve also said... BUY CHINA!

Down almost 50% since his call....

You know, I always glazed over the 50,000 Steve aguments on capitalized rent... but now I get what everyone was complaining about. You can catch Steve incredibly wrong, and he'll try to Clinton out of it and try to redefine the word "is" because he can't handle being wrong....

If it isn't Shadenfreude, it's in poor taste. So are you sure you have good timing?

If it isn't Shadenfreude, it's in poor taste. So are you sure you have good timing?

If it isn't Shadenfreude, it's in poor taste. So are you sure you have good timing?

Its not Shadenfreude if the misfortune hit the bragger...

Brabus...Who cares?...Millions of people. To say "who cares" is pitifully arrogant in the extreme . Some screws loose there.

"Steve also said... BUY CHINA!"

No, actually, I sold China and bought it back at a lower price. Still slightly down from where I repurchased it, but much better than the Dow.

Sorry you need to twist the facts, nyc!

Yasou Steve most intelligent blogger I have ever come accross....F**k them if they can't handle the truth!!!!

Mchale: get a clue Steve "sold" china after he already lost his shirt on the trade...I am never shocked at the sheeple's search for a new savior

there are plenty of posts in september and october where he admits to losing a ton of money

as someone else said it is in incredibly poor taste to come on an anonymous internet board and demand praise...you really have issues Steve

Stevejhx told everyone yet he lost big money last year! GG Gimp.

"Steve "sold" china after he already lost his shirt on the trade"

Not true.

"Stevejhx told everyone yet he lost big money last year!"

Yes I did. After Lehman collapsed. Before that I was fine. He who had money in the stock market who didn't lose some of it after September 17, please stand up.

I also kept lots of cash. Sorry guys.

Actually, I just found this...

Remember the Steve quote on calling 11k? Well, he was actually ARGUING WITH SOMEONE WHO CALLED a 25% DECLINE!

Stock indices rise to Dow 11,000 as the effects of the write-downs wear off, and all the new liquidity added into the economy takes hold.

> "6) Stock indices drop 20-25% from current levels"
> Stock indices rise to Dow 11,000 as the effects of the write-downs wear off, and all the new
> liquidity added into the economy takes hold.

Steve called UP 10 weeks ago! He argued with someone who actually called it right!

Seriously, Steve, the only reason we pay attention to your calls is because its clear everyone should do the opposite...

> "Steve also said... BUY CHINA!"
> No, actually, I sold China and bought it back at a lower price.

Dig, dig, dig, Steve...

it gets better... jsmith just pointed this out on another thread...

"Oh my lord, nyc10022. You are as bad as the people who when I said "riddance," thought I meant "good riddance."
Here is from Oxford:
"to head: move in a specified direction: he was heading for the exit."
"He was heading for the exit." Did he exit?
Not necessarily. It indicates a direction. So stop. You are now proving to be moronic. If you were remotely familiar with language - if you were smarter than a 5th grader - you would also note that Aristotle has a long passage about the multiple meanings of "is."
You just don't know what you're talking about.
"I'm sorry, but its just too comical."
Oh: "IT'S" just too comical. "

This was Steve as he noting he DID NOT call for 6500, he just gave a "direction". Thing is, the direction went UP as soon as he said it... so he got that wrong. Unless he was just trying to take credit for "calling" that the market had declined that day... after it did.

Steve, your a funny, funny guy... but resorting to lying.

Come on now.

Oh, NYC, you're such a tiresome silly billy!

Steve, you not only called it wrong, you tried to BRAG about it. AND YOU STARTED TWO DIFFERENT THREADS TO BRAG! Too bad everything you have ever written here is fairly accessibly.

And, now you even stopped arguing, which NEVER happens.... so I guess this is as close as you will EVER come to admitting a mistake.

Talk about silly... You need to look a good hard look at yourself.

I defended you in the past, but I've begun to see more and more that you are guilty of much of what folks have complained about.

You are a silly, silly man. But it is getting a little sad.

Steve, i'm a long time reader, first time caller. First off, thanks for the advice over the past year. I want to thank you, as I walked away from signing a contract back in April from a pre-construction in Brooklyn.

My question is the following: do you reckon property prices are going to fall much further over the next 16 months? I own another property downtown which I am considering unloading. It is rented, but I do not want to chase the market down.

Oh, nyc! Silly billy!

ofbrooklyn, I wouldn't purchase an apartment unless out of pocket it costs as much to rent as to buy. In Manhattan we are 50% away from that point right now. Check out nybits.com for luxury rentals - Archstone, say - and compare the rental prices to the carrying costs for similar apartments to buy, factoring the tax abatement back in if there is one. Property is still very, very overpriced.

Steve, at least you stopped denying your mistake.

I'll just be happy with that....

"at least you stopped denying your mistake."

LMAO!

I made no mistake, silly billy! I said the Dow was heading toward 6,500. More than once I said that I wasn't sure it would hit that level - I'm not the Mighty Karnak - but I said that's where we were heading. I didn't set a date - I said there were good technical reasons why it might hit that level or thereabouts.

So we made it.

Silly billy!

Who was silly again?

"Nor did I say that we would go to 6,500 on the Dow."

"Stock indices rise to Dow 11,000 as the effects of the write-downs wear off, and all the new liquidity added into the economy takes hold."

You called DOWN, the market went UP. Then market went down, you called UP and said your down call was just directional.

AND you called BUY CHINA, and that went down.

Steve, you are beyond silly. Good thing folks don't listen to you, or they would have lost a LOT of money.

You are an almost prefect inverse indicator. Please start calling down again.

nyc, you're a silly billy yet again!

I posted and reposted and re-reposted what I wrote - in context, unlike how you do it (the Dow 11,000 comment was end of 2009, which I'm not so sure of now) - yet you insist that everyone interpret what I say according to the meaning you wish to ascribe to it. You wish to claim that the stock market - volatile by nature - can be predicted to the day, hour, and minute. You wish to claim that it only moves in one direction, instead of up and down on a daily basis.

It's just silly-billy stuff, nyc! Just silly billy!

plus, I almost forgot.

Before the stimulus, you said SELL. Then the stimulus came and you said BUY. And then you spent a good few days trying to tell everyone you were right in your first claim.

You keep digging yourself deeper, and someone is going to pull out THOSE funny quotes too.

"Before the stimulus, you said SELL. Then the stimulus came and you said BUY."

ABSOLUTELY UNTRUE. Before the TARP I said Sell, after the TARP I said Buy, and that was the correct call for a few weeks, until Paulson changed the terms of the TARP and injected capital into banks instead.

At which time I said that I was neither buying nor selling; rather, just holding on to what I had and waiting to see what would happen in the future, because, I said at the time, the market was too volatile and unpredictable, and any move I made would likely be the wrong one.

And it was at the November 20 lows where I said there were very good technical reasons for the Dow to fall to 6,500. I did NOT say that it would reach that precise number; I said we were heading in that direction. I did not say it would happen the next day or the next month - stock markets don't work like that.

You see, nyc (silly billy!) you seem to think that people are capable of prognosticating with balls-on accuracy what will happen in the stock market in any particular day, or in the short-term. That is not possible. That is why you are incapable of understanding what I write, and insist on twisting it to mean what you are capable of understanding.

Even when you get the facts (TARP vs. Stimulus) completely wrong.

Dig, dig, dig... Steve...

Of course no one is going to get it right with ball-on accuracy. But it takes real BALLS to start multiple threads bragging about your calls... when you have been pretty much the most incorrect call-maker on the board! It takes quite a bit of talent to be as consistently wrong as you! (even guessing should get you 50% right, and you didn't even get that!)

You are the by far the silliest person on the board.

Yes, sorry... you were right about that mistake... it was tarp, not stimulus.

Yet another set of mistakes you made, no matter how much you want to justify it now. You called BUY!

Silly billy!

¿:+)

"Before the TARP I said Sell, after the TARP I said Buy, and that was the correct call for a few weeks, until Paulson changed the terms of the TARP and injected capital into banks instead."

Seriously, do you listen to yourself?

You made a horribly bad call, and now you're trying to justify it because what you thought would happen didn't?

How much money do you want people to lose before you stop giving "advice"...

> Silly billy!

Yes, you are Steve. A silly, silly man.

Sticks and stones may break my bones, but names will never harm me!

How about hypocrite then? You started the insults with me... AND I just borrowed "silly" from you.

Wow, steve... pretty pathetic...

And still very, very silly.

Also, its "words will never harm me". Hopefully that is the case with your words, and no one listened to your advice.

Steve, don't feed the troll.

:>)

> Steve, don't feed the troll.

Troll, meet other troll.

(look who started the thread)

and when the two silliest team up, you know you've gotten some utter nonsense...

nyc, you seem to be going apoplectic because no one but you buys your interpretation of what I said:

1) I said TARP, not stimulus.
2) I said we were headed toward 6,500, not that we would reach that specific number.
3) I provided no time frame.
4) I said that my rationale was technically (chart) based.
5) I said to buy stocks after TARP.
6) I then said I was making no further moves after Paulson changed the terms of the TARP.
7) I said I thought we would reach Dow 11,000 by the end of 2009 (which now I'm not so sure of).
8) I said that it's not possible to predict the stock market in the very short-term, which I didn't do.
9) I said stocks go up and down.

That's what I said. Whatever your twisted interpretation of it is, silly billy, you're allowed to have. Unfortunately, it bears no resemblance to what I actually said or meant.

> you seem to be going apoplectic because no one but you buys your interpretation of what I said:

lie, lie, lie, steve. dig, dig, dig.

Yeah, I'm the only one... (all from other people, all about this specific call)

"quit lying about your predictions steve. We can easily go back and look up what you really said so lying is a stupid thing to do here."

"Anyway, Steven, I think you may want to re-read your positions before you keep saying you were right, and frankly, there's nothing wrong with being wrong, just trying to say otherwise. "

"steve is so full of crap. In September, when I said that the dow was likely to go to 6500 he immediately came on the board and started babbling about how unlikely that was; he insulted nouriel roubini and said he didn't know what he was talking about (wrong again Steve)...In October when the market blew up and he got depressed about all the money he lost he started rattling about the market falling to depths as low as 5000...then the december rally came and he backed off again"

"Steve, you are trying to have it both ways. Please stop it. It's annoying"

keep digging, steve

nyc, you seem to have a libidinal interest in trying to prove that I said what I didn't say. I posted what I did, I explained again what I posted, I re-explained it and re-re-explained it, yet you insist on twisting it to fit your (limited) understanding of my comments.

That is so, so silly!

I don't have to prove anything Steve, its in black and white! They are YOUR WORDS!
I didn't need to twist anything, I just posted what you said.

You can try and weasel out of it all you want, but a LOT of folks are onto you. Many have already called you a liar.

> fit your (limited) understanding of my comments.

Yes, Steve, I get that now you are proven wrong, you've resorted to insults. That is a frequent response of a feeble mind.

But, sorry, its pretty plain for anyone to see. You called UP when it went down, DOWN, when it went up.... MULTIPLE times.

You can try and weasel out of it all you want, but your HORRIBLE, HORRIBLE record of predictions is there for anyone to see.

(and THAT is why we laugh)

nyc10022, we've all had our occasional issues with Steve, but you are clearly fixated on this issue in such a juvenile way. Many others have noted your propensity for insults (which you call the "frequent response of a feeble mind") and obsession with predictions. Would be great to see you spend less time berating others and actually answering questions when you can provide sound advice.

"You called UP when it went down, DOWN, when it went up"

Yes I did - 5 minutes after I called up it went down, then it went up. 5 minutes after I called down it went up, then it went down.

Ha-ha-ha.

Listen to bjw: this is really getting tedious. My 9 points above are what I said. You choose the time interval from when I write something to when you read it, and make "your" call about what I said. That's just silly, you billy you!

"you've resorted to insults"

"Silly billy" is an insult? Really? That's what I call my 5-year old niece when she is one, and she likes it. She laughs.

Just read the Bible

It talks about 666 and the mini ES futures on 3/6 stopped where and had a huge rally??

Anyhow, 500 for SP500 - it's all in a name

Not sure yet if that also means 500$/sqft for Manhattan Condo's - we will see

I already look to the Bible for all my investment ideas, but thanks anyway, HT1!