What is the outlook for all the super luxury new developments coming on line over the next two years?

I'll go with "toast".

2008 was the peak year (ever) for new inventory being added to market (building trades council stat I saw in crains). The close #2.... 2009. They can stop the applications all they want, much too much stuff was started in 2007/2008, thats going to be coming to market over the next few years. Its not a faucet, this thing takes a while to turn back.

The outlook for the super luxury developments is about as good as the outlook for Wall Street bonuses in the next two years.

low blow...

;-)

Goldie, my bonus outlook is actually pretty good and I am a banker. Not quite where I used to be but good enough.

OK. Let's put it this way: as good as bonuses compared to what they were in 2006 & 2007. The price per sqft will still look good relative to 1975, and so will bonuses.

I guess the key question I ask myself is "when" will the new development "opportunities" appear. When will the big price cuts take place?

Seems like everyone is still trying to hold the line - and the banks are apparently keeping the developers from reducing their prices.

Unfortunately, I don't think we're going to see big price cuts until 2010.

But I also worry about issues related to buying into a new development which is clearly distressed.

uppereast, there are people that believe we will quickly be back to business as usual and Wall Street bonuses will go back to what they were. They probably also believe that NYC housing will quickly recover.

There are other people who believe that this crisis will fundamentally change Wall Street, that there will be less business, less people and a lower salary structure for many years to come. I've probably benefited from the past salary structure more than most people on this board, but I recognize change is coming. Like you, I'll get by fine, but it's unlikely that most of the people who are starting on Wall Street now will ever have the opportunity to do as well financially as they could have in the past.

Super luxury that hasn't yet sold means eventual developer bankruptcy and distressed sales at foreclosure. And lots of luxury rentals!