Getting better?

there are greater global imbalances in our world today, than yesterday. until global imbalances are situated we are no where near a bottom.

throughout history, bear market rallies come and go.

be patient, Manhattan real estate has a long way DOWN. printing 1.2 Trillion as done today, is like a bandaid on a patient with cancer.

Serious troubles ahead.

october,
Charlie Rose did a great interview with Hank Greenberg, Meredith Whitney, and others the other day.

Here's the transcript
http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/10153#frame_top (click 'transcript' at top)

Short answer: not even close to bottom.

I feel more optimistic. My theory is that bankers will feel more confident and hence start buying again. Not seeing big price increases but a stabilization.

Plus I think that sellers are most desperate now (lost their job, can't afford lifestle anymore). Once they feel they will make money again, I think they are less inclined to dump apartments. So that's wyhy I am looking now for person willing to part with apartment at low price.

Here's the relevant quote. The entire interview is worth reading however.

"MEREDITH WHITNEY: Unemployment is already up, you know, 33 percent
from, you know, 70 percent from a year ago. And, you know, if you look at
credit being taken away so money out of people’s wallets, availability to
spend out of people’s wallets, you know, things are changing, and they need
a target, right? And what hasn’t happened yet is, unemployment is about to
go up a lot more when state and local communities realize they are
underfunded. At least 40 states are underfunded. That’s 12 percent of the
GDP. The American public has seen nothing yet, and if the U.S. government
is afraid of a populist revolt, they have got to strap themselves in.

CHARLIE ROSE: Listen, you saw this early certainly in terms of the
banks, and you got a lot of credit for that. Have we not seen the worst?
Is the worst still to come, or have we passed some point of beginning to
understand and just waiting for the plan to get us back on track?

MEREDITH WHITNEY: I really believe the longer we wait, the longer we
head down this path -- well, the math is the worst is ahead of us. And...

CHARLIE ROSE: So the end of 2009 or beyond?

MEREDITH WHITNEY: At least the end of 2009. Look, you have credit
continuing being pulled from the system, and until it stabilizes, there is
nowhere to go but down. And from an unemployment perspective, no one is
pricing in low, mid teens unemployment in any of their assumptions. So it
is just a question of not if the banks need to raise capital, it’s when,
and, you know, let’s get some capital back in the system by looking at who
can provide it, like the local banks. We will go back to a time that was
and not try to preserve a system that is and -- or was more recently and
will never be again.

You are throwing good money down black holes, and I am stealing Hank
Greenberg’s line because I heard him speak in 2002 and it has stayed with
me for so long and has influenced so much of what I have done in terms of
why throw good money with really, you know, impaled companies down black
holes, because you are not building anything."